999 resultados para TH-230-U-238 DISEQUILIBRIUM


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Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

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It is well known that the culture media used in the presumptive diagnosis of suspiciuous colonies from plates inoculated with stools for isolation of enteric organisms do not always correctly indicate the major groups of enterobacteria. In an effort to obtain a medium affording more exact indications, several media (1-9) have been tested. Modifications of some of these media have also been tested with the result that a satisfactory modification of Monteverde's medium was finaly selected. This proved to be most satisfactory, affording, as a result of only one inoculation, a complete series of basic indications. The modification involves changes in the formula, in the method of preparation and in the manner of storage. The formulae are: A. Thymol blue indicator: NaOH 0.1/N .............. 34.4 ml; Thymol blue .............. 1.6 g; Water .................... 65.6 ml. B. Andrade's indicator. C. Urea and sugar solution: Urea ..................... 20 g; Lactose ................... 30 g; Sucrose ................... 30 g; Water .................... 100 ml. The mixture (C.) should be warmed slightly in order to dissolve the ingredients rapidly. Sterilise by filtration (Seitz). Keep stock in refrigeratior. The modification of Monteverde's medium is prepared in two parts. Semi-solid part - Peptone (Difco) 2.0 g; NaCl 0.5 g; Agar 0.5 g; Water 100.0 ml. Boil to dissolve the ingredients. Adjust pH with NaOH to 7.3-7.4. Boil again for precipitation. Filter through cotton. Ad indicators "A" 0.3 ml and "B" 1.0 ml. Sterilise in autoclave 115ºC, 15 minutes in amounts not higher than 200 ml. Just before using, add solution "C" asseptically in amounts of 10 ml to 200 ml of the melted semi-solid medium, maintained at 48-50ºC. Solid part - Peptone (Difco) 1.5 g; Trypticase (BBL) 0.5 g; Agar 2.0 g; Water 100,00 ml. Boil to dissolve the ingredients. Adjust pH with NaOH to 7.3-7.4. Boils again. Filter through cotton. Add indicators "A" 0.3 ml and "B" 1.0 ml; ferrous ammonium sulfate 0.02 g; sodiun thiosulfate 0.02 g. Sterilise in autoclave 115ºC, 15 minutes in amounts not higher than 200 ml. Just before using, add solution "C" asseptically in amounts of 10 ml to 200 ml of the melted solid medium, maintained at 48-50ºC. Final medium - The semi-solid part is dispensed first (tubes about 12 x 120 mm) in 2.5 ml amounts and left to harden at room temperature, in vertical position. The solid part is dispensed over the hardened semi-solid one in amounts from 2.0 ml to 2.5 ml and left to harden in slant position, affording a butt of 12 to 15 mm. The tubes of medium should be subjected to a sterility test in the incubator, overnight. Tubes showing spontaneous gas bubbles (air) should then be discarded. The medium should be stored in the incubator (37ºC), for not more than 2 to 4 days. Storage of the tubes in the ice-box produces the absorption of air which is released as bubbles when the tubes are incubated at 37ºC after inoculation. This fact confirmed the observation of ARCHAMBAULT & McCRADY (10) who worked with liquid media and the aplication of their observation was found to be essential to the proper working conditions of this double-layer medium. Inoculation - The inoculation is made by means of a long straight needle, as is usually done on the triple sugar, but the needel should penetrate only to about half of the height of the semi-solid column. Indol detection - After inoculation, a strip of sterelized filter papaer previously moistened with Ehrlich's reagent, is suspended above the surface of the medium, being held between the cotton plug and the tube. Indications given - In addition to providing a mass of organisms on the slant for serological invetigations, the medium gives the following indications: 1. Acid from lactose and/or sucrose (red, of yellowsh with strains which reduce the indicators). 2. Gas from lactose and/or sucrose (bubbles). 3. H[2]S production, observed on the solid part (black). 4. Motility observed on the semi-solid part (tubidity). 5. Urease production, observed on solid and semi-solid parts (blue). 6. Indol production, observed on the strip of filter paper (red or purplish). Indol production is not observed with indol positive strains which rapidly acidify the surface o the slant, and the use of oxalic acid has proved to give less sensitive reaction (11). Reading of results - In most cases overnight incubation is enough; sometimes the reactions appear within only a few hours of incubation, affording a definitive orientation of the diagnosis. With some cultures it is necessary to observe the medium during 48 hours of incubation. A description showing typical differential reaction follows: Salmonella: Color of the medium unchanged, with blackening of the solid part when H[2]S is positive. The slant tends to alkalinity (greenish of bluish). Gas always absent. Indol negative. Motility positive or negative. Shigella: Color of the medium unchanged at the beginning of incubation period, but acquiring a red color when the strain is late lactose/sucrose positive. Slant tending to alkalinity (greenish or purplish). Indol positive or negative. Motility, gas and H[2]S always negative. Proteus: Color of the medium generally changes entirely to blue or sometimes to green (urease positive delayed), with blackening of solid part when H[2]S is positive. Motility positive of negative. Indol positive. Gas positive or negative. The strains which attack rapidly sucrose may give a yellow-greenish color to the medium. Sometimes the intense blue color of the medium renders difficult the reading of the H[2]S production. Escherichiae and Klebsiellae: Color of the medium red or yellow (acid) with great and rapid production of gas. Motility positive or negative. Indol generally impossible to observe. Paracoli: Those lactose of sucrose positive give the same reaction as Esherichia. Those lactose or sucrose negatives give the same reactions as Salmonellae. Sometimes indol positive and H[2]S negative. Pseudomonas: Color of the medium unchanged. The slant tends to alkalinity. It is impossible to observe motility because there is no growth in the bottom. Alkaligenes: Color of the medium unchanged. The slant tends to alkalinity. The medium does not alter the antigenic properties of the strains and with the mass of organisms on the slant we can make the serologic diagnosis. It is admitted that this medium is somewhat more laborious to prepare than others used for similar purposes. Nevertheless it can give informations generally obtained by two or three other media. Its use represents much saving in time, labor and material, and we suggest it for routine laboratory work in which a quick presumptive preliminary grouping of enteric organisms is needed.

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This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers. Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to purs

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Abstract The purpose of this study is to unravel the geodynamic evolution of Thailand and, from that, to extend the interpretation to the rest of Southeast Asia. The methodology was based in a first time on fieldwork in Northern Thailand and Southernmost Myanmar, using a multidisciplinary approach, and then on the compilation and re-interpretation, in a plate tectonics point of view, of existing data about the whole Southeast Asia. The main results concern the Nan-Uttaradit suture, the Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt and the proposition of a new location for the Palaeotethys suture. This led to the establishment of a new plate tectonic model for the geodynamic evolution of Southeast Asia, implying the existence new terranes (Orang Laut and the redefinition of Shan-Thai) and the role of the Palaeopacific Ocean in the tectonic development of the area. The model proposed here considers the Palaeotethys suture as located along the Tertiary Mae Yuam Fault, which represents the divide between the Cimmerian Sibumasu terrane and the Indochina-derived Shan-Thai block. The term Shan-Thai, previously used to define the Cimmerian area (when the Palaeotethys suture was thought to represented by the Nan-Uttaradit suture), was redefined here by keeping its geographical location within the Shan States of Myanmar and Central-Northern Thailand, but attributing it an East Asian Origin. Its detachment from Indochina was the result of the Early Permian opening of the Nan basin. The Nan basin closed during the Middle Triassic, before the deposition of Carnian-Norian molasse. The modalities of the closure of the basin imply a first phase of Middle Permian obduction, followed by final eastwards subduction. The Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt consists of scattered basaltic rocks erupted at least during the Viséan in an extensional continental intraplate setting, on the Shan-Thai part of the Indochina block. The Viséan age was established by the dating of limestone stratigraphically overlying the basalts. In several localities of the East Asian Continent, coeval extensional features occur, possibly implying one or more Early Carboniferous extensional events at a regional scale. These events occurred either due to the presence of a mantle plume or to the roll-back of the Palaeopacific Ocean, subducting beneath Indochina and South China, or both. The Palaeopacific Ocean is responsible, during the Early Permian, for the opening of the Song Ma and Poko back-arcs (Vietnam) with the consequent detachment of the Orang Laut Terranes (Eastern Vietnam, West Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). The Late Triassic/Early Jurassic closure of the Eastern Palaeotethys is considered as having taken place by subduction beneath its southern margin (Gondwana), due to the absence of Late Palaeozoic arc magmatism on its northern (Indochinese) margin and the presence of volcanism on the Cimmerian blocks (Mergui, Lhasa). Résumé Le but de cette étude est d'éclaircir l'évolution géodynamique de la Thaïlande et, à partir de cela, d'étendre l'interprétation au reste de l'Asie du Sud-Est. La méthodologie utilisée est basée dans un premier temps sur du travail de terrain en Thaïlande du nord et dans l'extrême sud du Myanmar, en se basant sur une approche pluridisciplinaire. Dans un deuxième temps, la compilation et la réinterprétation de données préexistantes sur l'Asie du Sud-est la été faite, dans une optique basée sur la tectonique des plaques. Les principaux résultats de ce travail concernent la suture de Nan-Uttaradit, la « Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt» et la proposition d'une nouvelle localité pour la suture de la Paléotethys. Ceci a conduit à l'établissement d'un nouveau modèle pour l'évolution géodynamique de l'Asie du Sud-est, impliquant l'existence de nouveaux terranes (Orang Laut et Shan-Thai redéfini) et le rôle joué par le Paléopacifique dans le développement tectonique de la région. Le modèle présenté ici considère que la suture de la Paléotethys est située le long de la faille Tertiaire de Mae Yuam, qui représente la séparation entre le terrain Cimmérien de Sibumasu et le bloc de Shan-Thai, d'origine Indochinoise. Le terme Shan-Thai, anciennement utilise pour définir le bloc Cimmérien (quand la suture de la Paléotethys était considérée être représentée par la suture de Nan-Uttaradit), a été redéfini ici en maintenant sa localisation géographique dans les états Shan du Myanmar et la Thaïlande nord-centrale, mais en lui attribuant une origine Est Asiatique. Son détachement de l'Indochine est le résultat de l'ouverture du basin de Nan au Permien Inférieur. Le basin de Nan s'est fermé pendant le Trias Moyen, avant le dépôt de molasse Carnienne-Norienne. Les modalités de fermeture du basin invoquent une première phase d'obduction au Permien Moyen, suivie par une subduction finale vers l'est. La "Chiang Mai Volcanic Belt" consiste en des basaltes éparpillés qui ont mis en place au moins pendant le Viséen dans un contexte extensif intraplaque continental sur la partie de l'Indochine correspondant au bloc de Shan-Thai. L'âge Viséen a été établi sur la base de la datation de calcaires qui surmontent stratigraphiquement les basaltes. Dans plusieurs localités du continent Est Asiatique, des preuves d'extension plus ou moins contemporaines ont été retrouvées, ce qui implique l'existence d'une ou plusieurs phases d'extension au Carbonifère Inférieur a une échelle régionale. Ces événements sont attribués soit à la présence d'un plume mantellique, ou au rollback du Paléopacifique, qui subductait sous l'Indochine et la Chine Sud, soit les deux. Pendant le Permien inférieur, le Paléopacifique est responsable pour l'ouverture des basins d'arrière arc de Song Ma et Poko (Vietnam), induisant le détachement des Orang Laut Terranes (Est Vietnam, Ouest Sumatra, Kalimantan, Palawan, Taiwan). La fermeture de la Paléotethys Orientale au Trias Supérieur/Jurassique Inférieur est considérée avoir eu lieu par subduction sous sa marge méridionale (Gondwana), à cause de l'absence de magmatisme d'arc sur sa marge nord (Indochinoise) et de la présence de volcanisme sur les blocs Cimmériens de Lhassa et Sibumasu (Mergui). Résumé large public L'histoire géologique de l'Asie du Sud-est depuis environ 430 millions d'années a été déterminée par les collisions successives de plusieurs continents les uns avec les autres. Il y a environ 430 millions d'années, au Silurien, un grand continent appelé Gondwana, a commencé à se «déchirer» sous l'effet des contraintes tectoniques qui le tiraient. Cette extension a provoqué la rupture du continent et l'ouverture d'un grand océan, appelé Paléotethys, éloignant les deux parties désormais séparées. C'est ainsi que le continent Est Asiatique, composé d'une partie de la Chine actuelle, de la Thaïlande, du Myanmar, de Sumatra, du Vietnam et de Bornéo a été entraîné avec le bord (marge) nord de la Paléotethys, qui s'ouvrait petit à petit. Durant le Carbonifère Supérieur, il y a environ 300 millions d'années, le sud du Gondwana subissait une glaciation, comme en témoigne le dépôt de sédiments glaciaires dans les couches de cet âge. Au même moment le continent Est Asiatique se trouvait à des latitudes tropicales ou équatoriales, ce qui permettait le dépôt de calcaires contenant différents fossiles de foraminifères d'eau chaude et de coraux. Durant le Permien Inférieur, il y a environ 295 millions d'années, la Paléotethys Orientale, qui était un relativement vieil océan avec une croûte froide et lourde, se refermait. La croûte océanique a commencé à s'enfoncer, au sud, sous le Gondwana. C'est ce que l'on appelle la subduction. Ainsi, le Gondwana s'est retrouvé en position de plaque supérieure, par rapport à la Paléotethys qui, elle, était en plaque inférieure. La plaque inférieure en subductant a commencé à reculer. Comme elle ne pouvait pas se désolidariser de la plaque supérieure, en reculant elle l'a tirée. C'est le phénomène du «roll-back ». Cette traction a eu pour effet de déchirer une nouvelle fois le Gondwana, ce qui a résulté en la création d'un nouvel Océan, la Neotethys. Cet Océan en s'ouvrant a déplacé une longue bande continentale que l'on appelle les blocs Cimmériens. La Paléotethys était donc en train de se fermer, la Neotethys de s'ouvrir, et entre deux les blocs Cimmériens se rapprochaient du Continent Est Asiatique. Pendant ce temps, le continent Est Asiatique était aussi soumis à des tensions tectoniques. L'Océan Paléopacifique, à l'est de celui-ci, était aussi en train de subducter. Cette subduction, par roll-back, a déchiré le continent en détachant une ligne de microcontinents appelés ici « Orang Laut Terranes », séparés du continent par deux océans d'arrière arc : Song Ma et Poko. Ceux-ci sont composés de Taiwan, Palawan, Bornéo ouest, Vietnam oriental, et la partie occidentale de Sumatra. Un autre Océan s'est ouvert pratiquement au même moment dans le continent Est Asiatique : l'Océan de Nan qui, en s'ouvrant, a détaché un microcontinent appelé Shan-Thai. La fermeture de l'Océan de Nan, il y a environ 230 millions d'années a resolidarisé Shan-Thai et le continent Est Asiatique et la trace de cet événement est aujourd'hui enregistrée dans la suture (la cicatrice de l'Océan) de Nan-Uttaradit. La cause de l'ouverture de l'Océan de Nan peut soit être due à la subduction du Paléopacifique, soit aux fait que la subduction de la Paléotethys tirait le continent Est Asiatique par le phénomène du « slab-pull », soit aux deux. La subduction du Paléopacifique avait déjà crée de l'extension dans le continent Est Asiatique durant le Carbonifère Inférieur (il y a environ 340-350 millions d'années) en créant des bassins et du volcanisme, aujourd'hui enregistré en différents endroits du continent, dont la ceinture volcanique de Chiang Mai, étudiée ici. A la fin du Trias, la Paléotethys se refermait complètement, et le bloc Cimmérien de Sibumasu entrait en collision avec le continent Est Asiatique. Comme c'est souvent le cas avec les grands océans, il n'y a pas de suture proprement dite, avec des fragments de croûte océanique, pour témoigner de cet évènement. Celui-ci est visible grâce à la différence entre les sédiments du Carbonifère Supérieur et du Permieñ Inférieur de chaque domaine : dans le domaine Cimmérien ils sont de type glaciaire alors que dans le continent Est Asiatique ils témoignent d'un climat tropical. Les océans de Song Ma et Poko se sont aussi refermés au Trias, mais eux ont laissé des sutures visibles

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Afin de tenir compte de ces recommandations pour notre alimentation quotidienne, il faut adapter aussi bien les menus domestiques destinés à la famille que les menus des cantines sur les lieux de travail, et ceci de façon simultanée. Ce but peut être atteint sans modifier nos traditions alimentaires, ni même notre approvisionnement.Le respect de ces directives permettra d'équilibrer rapidement notre alimentation et adapter notre consommation à nos besoins réels.

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The objective of this paper is to analyse to what extent the use of cross-section data will distort the estimated elasticities for car ownership demand when the observed variables do not correspond to a state equilibrium for some individuals in the sample. Our proposal consists of approximating the equilibrium values of the observed variables by constructing a pseudo-panel data set which entails averaging individuals observed at different points of time into cohorts. The results show that individual and aggregate data lead to almost the same value for income elasticity, whereas with respect to working adult elasticity the similarity is less pronounced.

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Using data from the International Revenue Service, this paper explores the effcts of corporate taxation on U.S. capital invested abroad and on tax planning practices (dividend payments, income shifting, and passive investment). The econometric analysis first indicates that investment is strongly influenced by average tax rates, with a magnified impact for particularly low-tax rates implying that the attractiveness of low-tax countries is not weakened by anti-deferral rules and cross-crediting limitations. Further explorations suggest that firms report higher profit and are less likely to repatriate dividends when they are located in low-tax jurisdictions. Firms also report higher Subpart F income in countries in which they shift their profit, suggesting that cross-crediting provides an incentive to shift passive income in low-tax countries and that passive investment can be an alternative strategy to minimize taxes when active investment opportunities are lacking. Finally, the paper estimates the role of effective transfer pricing regulation on income shifting activities using the quality of host countries' law enforcement. It appears that low degrees of law enforcement are associated with higher income-shifting.

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This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.