A Bayesian network approach to the database serch problem in criminal proceedings

Background The 'database search problem', that is, the strengthening of a case - in terms of probative value - against an individual who is found as a result of a database search, has been approached during the last two decades with substantial mathematical analyses, accompanied by lively debate and centrally opposing conclusions. This represents a challenging obstacle in teaching but also hinders a balanced and coherent discussion of the topic within the wider scientific and legal community. This paper revisits and tracks the associated mathematical analyses in terms of Bayesian networks. Their derivation and discussion for capturing probabilistic arguments that explain the database search problem are outlined in detail. The resulting Bayesian networks offer a distinct view on the main debated issues, along with further clarity. Methods As a general framework for representing and analyzing formal arguments in probabilistic reasoning about uncertain target propositions (that is, whether or not a given individual is the source of a crime stain), this paper relies on graphical probability models, in particular, Bayesian networks. This graphical probability modeling approach is used to capture, within a single model, a series of key variables, such as the number of individuals in a database, the size of the population of potential crime stain sources, and the rarity of the corresponding analytical characteristics in a relevant population. Results This paper demonstrates the feasibility of deriving Bayesian network structures for analyzing, representing, and tracking the database search problem. The output of the proposed models can be shown to agree with existing but exclusively formulaic approaches. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian networks allow one to capture and analyze the currently most well-supported but reputedly counter-intuitive and difficult solution to the database search problem in a way that goes beyond the traditional, purely formulaic expressions. The method's graphical environment, along with its computational and probabilistic architectures, represents a rich package that offers analysts and discussants with additional modes of interaction, concise representation, and coherent communication.

Selection on a eumelanic ornament is stronger in the tropics than in temperate zones in the worldwide-distributed barn owl.

Spatial variation in the pattern of natural selection can promote local adaptation and genetic differentiation between populations. Because heritable melanin-based ornaments can signal resistance to environmentally mediated elevation in glucocorticoids, to oxidative stress and parasites, populations may vary in the mean degree of melanic coloration if selection on these phenotypic aspects varies geographically. Within a population of Swiss barn owls (Tyto alba), the size of eumelanic spots is positively associated with survival, immunity and resistance to stress, but it is yet unknown whether Tyto species that face stressful environments evolved towards a darker eumelanic plumage. Because selection regimes vary along environmental gradients, we examined whether melanin-based traits vary clinally and are expressed to a larger extent in the tropics where parasites are more abundant than in temperate zones. To this end, we considered 39 barn owl species distributed worldwide. Barn owl species living in the tropics displayed larger eumelanic spots than those found in temperate zones. This was, however, verified in the northern hemisphere only. Parasites being particularly abundant in the tropics, they may promote the evolution of darker eumelanic ornaments.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

A survey addressing the fundamental matrix estimation problem

Epipolar geometry is a key point in computer vision and the fundamental matrix estimation is the only way to compute it. This article surveys several methods of fundamental matrix estimation which have been classified into linear methods, iterative methods and robust methods. All of these methods have been programmed and their accuracy analysed using real images. A summary, accompanied with experimental results, is given

Prevalent role of TCR alpha-chain in the selection of the preimmune repertoire specific for a human tumor-associated self-antigen.

The specificity of recognition of pMHC complexes by T lymphocytes is determined by the V regions of the TCR alpha- and beta-chains. Recent experimental evidence has suggested that Ag-specific TCR repertoires may exhibit a more V alpha- than V beta-restricted usage. Whether V alpha usage is narrowed during immune responses to Ag or if, on the contrary, restricted V alpha usage is already defined at the early stages of TCR repertoire selection, however, has remained unexplored. Here, we analyzed V and CDR3 TCR regions of single circulating naive T cells specifically detected ex vivo and isolated with HLA-A2/melan-A peptide multimers. Similarly to what was previously observed for melan-A-specific Ag-experienced T cells, we found a relatively wide V beta usage, but a preferential V alpha 2.1 usage. Restricted V alpha 2.1 usage was also found among single CD8(+) A2/melan-A multimer(+) thymocytes, indicating that V alpha-restricted selection takes place in the thymus. V alpha 2.1 usage, however, was independent from functional avidity of Ag recognition. Thus, interaction of the pMHC complex with selected V alpha-chains contributes to set the broad Ag specificity, as underlined by preferential binding of A2/melan-A multimers to V alpha 2.1-bearing TCRs, whereas functional outcomes result from the sum of these with other interactions between pMHC complex and TCR.

Intra- and intersexual selection and their potential consequences on fitness-relevant traits in several fish species

Résumé : Les mécanismes de sélection sexuelle, en particulier la compétition entre mâles (sélection inter-sexuelle) et le choix des femelles (sélection intra-sexuelle), peuvent fortement influencer le succès reproducteur d'un individu, c'est-à-dire son nombre de descendants. On observe ainsi que les mâles dominants et les mâles élaborant des caractères sexuels secondaires marqués ont un succès reproducteur élevé. Toutefois, le succès reproducteur ne suffit pas pour garantir une contribution génétique élevée, parce que la fitness dépend également de la performance des descendants (c'est-à-dire de leur survie et de leur propre succès reproducteur). Si cette performance dépend en partie des gènes paternels, les males ont un avantage certain à signaler leur qualité aux femelles afin d'atteindre des taux de reproduction élevé. Ce mécanisme de signalisation est connu sous le nom de 'good genes hypothesis', toutefois très peu d'études ont clairement démontré le lien entre la qualité génétique des individus et la signalisation. De plus, la performance des descendants peut aussi dépendre des effets génétiques de compatibilité entre mâles et femelles ('compatible genes'). C'est-à-dire que certains allèles paternels n'apporteraient un avantage aux descendants qu'en combinaison avec certains allèles maternels. Nous avons déterminé, durant la période de reproduction, le statut de dominance des mâles pour deux espèces de poissons d'eau douce : la truite (Salmo trotta) et le vairon (Phoxinus phoxinus), puis nous avons évalué la relation entre le succès reproducteur et le statut de dominance et/ou la quantité de signalisation des caractères sexuels secondaires. Nous avons également fécondés artificiellement des oeufs de truites et de corégones (Coregonus palaea), en croisant chaque mâle avec chaque femelle (full-factorial breeding design). Ce type de design autorise la quantification précise des effets génétiques et permet de séparer les effets de 'good genes' et de 'compatible genes'. Cela a été fait sous différentes intensités de stress bactérien, ainsi que dans des conditions naturelles, et nous avons pu ainsi tester si certains indicateurs de qualité génétique des mâles ('good genes') étaient liés a) à la dominance et/ou b) à l'expression des caractères sexuels secondaires des mâles comme l'intensité mélanique ou la taille des tubercules sexuels. En outre, nous cherchons à savoir si la survie des descendants est liée à certaines combinaison des gènes du complexe d'histocompatibilité majeur (MHC) et/ou à la parenté génétique des parents, les deux traits étant soupçonnés d'avoir des influences génétique de compatibilité (`compatible genes') à la performance des descendants. Nous avons constaté que la dominance des mâles est directement liée à la taille et au poids des mâles (truites, vairons), mais également aux caractères sexuels secondaires (tubercules). De plus, les mâles vairons dominant ont eu un succès de fécondation plus élevés que les mâles subordonnés. Nous montrons que les truites et corégones mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique, qui a été mesurée avéc la survie embryonnaire, le temps avant l'éclosion et enfin la croissance juvénile. Contrairement aux prédictions, la dominance (ou les traits indicatifs de dominance) n'était liée à la qualité génétique, dans aucun des traitements, et ne fonctionne donc pas comme indicateur de qualité. Par contre, la qualité génétique était liée aux caractères sexuels secondaires, particulièrement par la teinte mélanique chez les truites. Les embryons de truites issus de pères sombres survivaient mieux que ceux issus de pères clairs dans des environnements difficiles, de plus leur croissance était plus élevée lors de leur première année dans des conditions naturelles. La taille des juvéniles lors de leur première année est un trait important lié au succès dans la compétition pour des ressources telles qu'abri ou nourriture. De plus, les femelles truites peuvent augmenter la survie de leurs descendants en choisissant des mâles selon leur type de MHC ou selon leur degré de parenté. En outre, chez les corégones, la morphologie des tubercules sexuels ne semble pas signaler la qualité génétique. Nous avons également remarqué que l'exposition à des pathogènes non-létaux pouvait influencer la performance des alevins à court et long terme, probablement en affaiblissant leur système immunitaire. Cette thèse montre que les mâles diffèrent dans leur qualité génétique et que différents mécanismes de sélection inter- ou intra-sexuelle (par exemple la préférence pour des mâles sombres, pour des génotypes MHC ou pour des couples avec degré de parenté basse) pouvait avoir un effet positif sur la qualité des descendants, bien que cet effet génétique pouvait changer au cours du temps et entre différents environnements. Contrairement à nos attentes, le résultat de la compétition intra-sexuelle (la hiérarchie de dominance entre mâles) n'était pas lié à la qualité génétique individuelle ('good genes'). Dans ce sens, ce travail permet également de contribuer à l'explication du fait que la sélection sexuelle, de par sa forte sélection directionnelle, ne conduit pas à la diminution de la variance génétique, mais plutôt à la maintenance du polymorphisme génétique. Summary : Sexual selection mechanisms, especially male-male competition (inteasexual selection) and female mate choice (inteasexual selection), can strongly influence individual mating success, often resulting in dominant males and males with elaborate secondary sexual characters having higher fertilisation success. However, siring a high number of offspring alone does not guarantee high individual fitness, as fitness does also strongly depend on offspring performance (i.e. survival, fecundity). If this superiority in offspring performance depends on paternally inherited genes, the fathers are expected to signal this potential indirect benefit to females in order to attain high mating rates. This mechanism is also known as the 'good genes' hypothesis of sexual selection but until now most studies failed to conclusively show the relation of an individual genetic quality and its potential signalling traits. Further, offspring performance could also depend on compatible gene effects. These are alleles that increase offspring performance only in combination with other specific alleles. We first determined male dominance status from intrasexual competition during mating season for brown trout (Salmo trutta) and European minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus). For minnows we additionally checked if dominance and/or secondary sexual traits were linked to fertilisation success. Further, we artificially fertilised brown trout and alpine whitefish (Coregonus palaea) eggs, following full factorial breeding designs, enabling to properly measure `good gene' and `compatible gene' effects on offspring performance. This was done under different intensities of natural stressors, as well as under natural conditions. This procedure allowed us to test if the obtained male genetic quality measures (good genes effects) were indicated by a) dominance or lay traits linked to dominance and/or by b) secondary sexual characteristics such as melanin-based male skin darkness or breeding tubercles. Further, we investigated if offspring survival was linked to the MHC (major histocompatibility complex) gene combinations and/or to the parental genetic relatedness, as both traits were shown to have 'compatible gene' effects that may influence offspring performance. We found that male dominance in intrasexual competition was positively linked to body size, body weight (brown trout, minnows) but also to elaborate secondary sexual characteristics (breeding tubercles in minnows). Further, dominant minnow males did have an increased fertilisation success compared to subordinate ones. We show that brown trout and whitefish males do usually differ in their genetic quality, which was measured as embryo survival, hatching timing and finally as juvenile growth. Contrary to prediction male dominance or dominance indicating traits do not function as a quality signal as they were not linked to genetic quality. This result was constant when measuring genetic quality under different levels of natural stressors and under natural conditions (brown trout). On the other hand genetic quality seemed to be indicated by secondary sexual characteristics, specifically by melanin-based skin darkness in brown trout as brown trout embryos sired by darker fathers had increased survival rates when raised under harsh conditions and. they grew larger as juveniles after one year of growth in a natural stream, which is an important trait influencing success of juveniles in competition for hidings, food and other resources. Furthermore, brown trout females may increase the survival of their embryos when choosing males according to their MHC genotypes or to the general genetic relatedness between themselves and their potential mates. In whitefish on the other hand breeding tubercle morphology did not seem to signal genetic quality. Eventually, we saw that anon-lethal exposure to pathogens might influence short term and long term offspring performance probably by weakening an exposed individual's immune system. This thesis shows that males usually differ in their genetic quality and that different inter- or intrasexual selection mechanisms (e.g. mate selection favouring dark males, preference for MHC genotype combinations or for unrelated mates) may have strong positive effects on genetically dependent offspring performance but that such genetìc effects can change over time and environments. In contrast to our a priori expectations, the outcome of intrasexual selection, namely male dominance hierarchies, with dominant males often having high fertilisation success, was not linked to individual genetic quality (`good genes'). In this sense the present thesis may also be a helpful contribution to understand why sexual selection does not lead to rapid loss of genetic variation by strong directional selection but could even lead to the maintenance of genetic variation in natural populations.

Evolutionary histories of expanded peptidase families in Schistosoma mansoni

Schistosoma mansoni is one of the three main causative agents of human schistosomiasis, a major health problem with a vast socio-economic impact. Recent advances in the proteomic analysis of schistosomes have revealed that peptidases are the main virulence factors involved in the pathogenesis of this disease. In this context, evolutionary studies can be applied to identify peptidase families that have been expanded in genomes over time in response to different selection pressures. Using a phylogenomic approach, we searched for expanded endopeptidase families in the S. mansoni predicted proteome with the aim of contributing to the knowledge of such enzymes as potential therapeutic targets. We found three endopeptidase families that comprise leishmanolysins (metallopeptidase M8 family), cercarial elastases (serine peptidase S1 family) and cathepsin D proteins (aspartic peptidase A1 family). Our results suggest that the Schistosoma members of these families originated from successive gene duplication events in the parasite lineage after its diversification from other metazoans. Overall, critical residues are conserved among the duplicated genes/proteins. Furthermore, each protein family displays a distinct evolutionary history. Altogether, this work provides an evolutionary view of three S. mansoni peptidase families, which allows for a deeper understanding of the genomic complexity and lineage-specific adaptations potentially related to the parasitic lifestyle.

The stepwise selection for ketoconazole resistance induces upregulation of C14-demethylase (CYP51) in Leishmania amazonensis

Ketoconazole is a clinically safe antifungal agent that also inhibits the growth of Leishmania spp. A study was undertaken to determine whether Leishmania parasites are prone to becoming resistant to ketoconazole by upregulating C14-demethylase after stepwise pharmacological pressure. Leishmania amazonensis promastigotes [inhibitory concentration (IC)50 = 2 µM] were subjected to stepwise selection with ketoconazole and two resistant lines were obtained, La8 (IC50 = 8 µM) and La10 (IC50 = 10 µM). As a result, we found that the resistance level was directly proportional to the C14-demethylase mRNA expression level; we also observed that expression levels were six and 12 times higher in La8 and La10, respectively. This is the first demonstration that L. amazonensis can up-regulate C14-demethylase in response to drug pressure and this report contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms of parasite resistance.

Evolution of insecticide resistance in non-target black flies (Diptera: Simuliidae) from Argentina

Black flies, a non-target species of the insecticides used in fruit production, represent a severe medical and veterinary problem. Large increases in the level of resistance to the pyrethroids fenvalerate (more than 355-fold) and deltamethrin (162-fold) and a small increase in resistance to the organophosphate azinphos methyl (2-fold) were observed between 1996-2008 in black fly larvae under insecticide pressure. Eventually, no change or a slight variation in insecticide resistance was followed by a subsequent increase in resistance. The evolution of pesticide resistance in a field population is a complex and stepwise process that is influenced by several factors, the most significant of which is the insecticide selection pressure, such as the dose and frequency of application. The variation in insecticide susceptibility within a black fly population in the productive area may be related to changes in fruit-pest control. The frequency of individuals with esterase activities higher than the maximum value determined in the susceptible population increased consistently over the sampling period. However, the insecticide resistance was not attributed to glutathione S-transferase activity. In conclusion, esterase activity in black flies from the productive area is one mechanism underlying the high levels of resistance to pyrethroids, which have been recently used infrequently. These enzymes may be reselected by currently used pesticides and enhance the resistance to these insecticides.

Retroviral Integration Site Selection

The stable insertion of a copy of their genome into the host cell genome is an essential step of the life cycle of retroviruses. The site of viral DNA integration, mediated by the viral-encoded integrase enzyme, has important consequences for both the virus and the host cell. The analysis of retroviral integration site distribution was facilitated by the availability of the human genome sequence, revealing the non-random feature of integration site selection and identifying different favored and disfavored genomic locations for individual retroviruses. This review will summarize the current knowledge about retroviral differences in their integration site preferences as well as the mechanisms involved in this process.

Human genetic selection on the MTHFR 677C>T polymorphism.

BACKGROUND The prevalence of genotypes of the 677C>T polymorphism for the MTHFR gene varies among humans. In previous studies, we found changes in the genotypic frequencies of this polymorphism in populations of different ages, suggesting that this could be caused by an increase in the intake of folate and multivitamins by women during the periconceptional period. The aim was to analyze changes in the allelic frequencies of this polymorphism in a Spanish population, including samples from spontaneous abortions (SA). METHODS A total of 1305 subjects born in the 20th century were genotyped for the 677C>T polymorphism using allele specific real-time PCR with Taqman probes. A section of our population (n = 276) born in 1980-1989 was compared with fetal samples (n = 344) from SA of unknown etiology from the same period. RESULTS An increase in the frequency of the T allele (0.38 vs 0.47; p < 0.001) and of the TT genotype (0.14 vs 0.24; p < 0.001) in subjects born in the last quarter of the century was observed. In the 1980-1989 period, the results show that the frequency of the wild type genotype (CC) is about tenfold lower in the SA samples than in the controls (0.03 vs 0.33; p < 0.001) and that the frequency of the TT genotype increases in the controls (0.19 to 0.27) and in the SA samples (0.20 to 0.33 (p < 0.01)); r = 0.98. CONCLUSION Selection in favor of the T allele has been detected. This selection could be due to the increased fetal viability in early stages of embryonic development, as is deduced by the increase of mutants in both living and SA populations.

Culicidae (Diptera) selection of humans, chickens and rabbits in three different environments in the province of Chaco, Argentina

Studies were conducted to determine the selection of humans, chickens and rabbits by Culicidae in three different environments in the province of Chaco, Argentina. Mosquitoes were collected fortnightly using cylindrical metal traps containing animal bait (chickens and rabbits). The mosquitoes were collected between June 2001-May 2002. During the same period and with the same frequency, mosquitoes biting the human operators of the traps were collected during the first 15 min of exposure within different time intervals: from 09:00 am-11:00 am, 01:00 pm-03:00 pm, 05:00 pm-07:00 pm and 09:00 pm-10:00 pm. A total of 19,430 mosquitoes of 49 species belonging to 10 genera were collected. Culex species mainly selected chicken bait and Wyeomyia species selected rabbit bait. Ochlerotatus and Psorophora species were more abundant in rabbit-baited traps. Anopheles triannulatus, Coquillettidia nigricans, Ochlerotatus scapularis, Mansonia titillans and Psorophora albigenu showed a strong attraction for human bait. The Anopheles, Coquillettidia, Culex and Mansonia species were more active between 05:00 pm-09:00 pm, while Ochlerotatus, Psorophora, Haemagogus and Wyeomyia were most active from 09:00 am-07:00 pm. This study provides additional information about the biology and ecology of arbovirus vectors in Chaco.