Estimating slope and level change in N=1 designs

The current study proposes a new procedure for separately estimating slope change and level change between two adjacent phases in single-case designs. The procedure eliminates baseline trend from the whole data series prior to assessing treatment effectiveness. The steps necessary to obtain the estimates are presented in detail, explained, and illustrated. A simulation study is carried out to explore the bias and precision of the estimators and compare them to an analytical procedure matching the data simulation model. The experimental conditions include two data generation models, several degrees of serial dependence, trend, level and/or slope change. The results suggest that the level and slope change estimates provided by the procedure are unbiased for all levels of serial dependence tested and trend is effectively controlled for. The efficiency of the slope change estimator is acceptable, whereas the variance of the level change estimator may be problematic for highly negatively autocorrelated data series.

Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

BACKGROUND: Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. Aims of Study: 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. RESULTS: Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was associated with being a non-smoker, whereas high confidence (OR 3.29; 1.12, 9.62) was. CONCLUSIONS: High confidence in ability to change was associated with favorable outcomes for both drinking and smoking, whereas high importance was associated only with a favorable drinking outcome. This study points to the value of confidence as an important predictor of successful change for both drinking and smoking, and shows the value of importance in predicting successful changes in alcohol use. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN78822107.

Functional homogenization of bumblebee communities in alpine landscapes under projected climate change

Background: Bumblebees represent an active pollinator group in mountain regions and assure the pollination of many different plant species from low to high elevations. Plant-pollinator interactions are mediated by functional traits. Shift in bumblebee functional structure under climate change may impact plant-pollinator interactions in mountains. Here, we estimated bumblebee upward shift in elevation, community turnover, and change in functional structure under climate change. Method: We sampled bumblebee species at 149 sites along the elevation gradient. We used stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) forecasted under three climate change scenarios (A2, A1B, RCP3PD) to model the potential distribution of the Bombus species. Furthermore, we used species proboscis length measurements to assess the functional change in bumblebee assemblages along the elevation gradient. Results: We found species-specific response of bumblebee species to climate change. Species differed in their predicted rate of range contraction and expansion. Losers were mainly species currently restricted to high elevation. Under the most severe climate change scenarios (A2), we found a homogenization of proboscis length structure in bumblebee communities along the elevation gradient through the upward colonization of high elevation by species with longer proboscides. Conclusions: Here, we show that in addition to causing the shift in the distribution of bumblebee species, climate change may impact the functional structure of communities. The colonization of high elevation areas by bumblebee species with long proboscides may modify the structure of plant-pollination interaction networks by increasing the diversity of pollination services at high elevation.

Resposta espectral de solos em razão do ângulo de visada, da umidade e da rugosidade superficial

Este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar as variações do fator de refletância bidirecional (FRB) de três séries de solo (McAllister, Stronghold e Epitaph) da microbacia experimental de Walnut Gulch (Arizona, EUA) em razão do ângulo de visada, da rugosidade superficial e do teor de umidade. Foram consideradas as faixas espectrais do visível e do infravermelho próximo e médio presentes no sensor TM, e os resultados foram expressos em termos de FRB em relação à resposta no Nadir (FRB relativo). O anisotropismo variou de solo para solo e foi maior nas menores faixas espectrais, nos ângulos de visada maiores localizados na direção do retroespalhamento, nos ângulos solar-zenitais maiores, e na condição de solo seco. No solo Epitaph (único solo submetido ao estudo de rugosidade) o anisotropismo foi também maior na superfície mais rugosa. Entretanto, uma melhor diferenciação entre as superfícies lisa e rugosa do solo Epitaph foi obtida na direção do espalhamento da energia refletida. Diferenças na escala e nos métodos de obtenção dos dados são apontadas como causas do realce do comportamento anisotrópico dos dados obtidos em condições de laboratório, em comparação com os dados de campo.

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation

Abstract

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

Does change talk during brief motivational interventions with young men predict change in alcohol use?

Client change talk (CT) during motivational interviewing and brief motivational interventions (BMIs) have been described as predictors of behavior change, but these links have not been clearly evaluated in research on young people. Within 127 BMIs with 20-year-old men with at-risk alcohol consumption, each CT utterance was categorized and given a strength rating using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code 2.1. Several ways of categorizing and measuring CT were tested using stepwise regression procedures. Overall CT measures were not significantly related to changes in drinking at 6-month follow-up. Regarding CT sub-dimensions, the frequency of ability/desire/need to change and of ability/desire/need not to change, as well as the average strength of ability/desire/need, predicted significant change in the expected direction. CT length was not significantly linked to outcome. The frequency and strength with which some CT sub-dimensions are expressed during BMI seemed to be important predictors of change in drinking among young men and might thus be especially important for clinicians to notice.

Alteração de parâmetros químicos do solo pela reaplicação superficial de calcário no sistema plantio direto

A aplicação superficial de calcário está se tornando uma prática comum de correção da acidez do solo no sistema plantio direto no Sul do Brasil. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi avaliar o efeito da reaplicação de calcário, com e sem incorporação ao solo no sistema plantio direto, sobre as características químicas das fases sólida e líquida ao longo do tempo e do perfil do solo. O experimento foi conduzido em solo Argissolo Vermelho distrófico típico, cultivado há oito anos no sistema plantio direto com reaplicação de calcário a cada quatro anos. Em outubro de 1996, foram aplicadas, em toda a área, 2,5 t ha¹ de calcário, o qual foi incorporado em metade da parcela. As análises de solo em camadas de 1 cm de espessura, em curtos espaços de tempo, permitiram verificar efeitos relativamente rápidos da reaplicação de calcário na superfície do solo em profundidade. O maior efeito da dissolução do calcário ocorreu aos 90 dias de sua reaplicação. Os efeitos em profundidade se manifestaram a partir dos 180 dias da reaplicação; atingiram, aos 360 dias, até 2 cm quanto aos teores de Ca e Mg na solução do solo, e até 4 cm quanto ao pH em CaCl2 e aos teores de Al, Ca e Mg trocáveis.

Residual effects of successive exposure of soybean Bradyrhizobium strains to aluminium on solid defined medium

The aim of these studies was to investigate whether residual toxic effects of exposing soybean root nodule bacteria to Al in a solid defined media (SDM) alter tolerance to Al, survival, sensitivity to antibiotics, N2 fixation effectiveness and genetic diversity of Bradyrhizobium strains. After being exposed four times to Al, strains showed variation in Al tolerance but there was no evidence of change in their original Al tolerance, sensitivity to the antibiotics or genetic diversity. Exposure of Bradyrhizobium strains to SDM plus Al did not alter biological N2 fixation effectiveness of five strains. Strain SEMIA 587 showed a reduction in its N2 fixation effectiveness but it seems that it was just a superficial toxic effect because one single passage through the plant eliminated this effect. Residual Al did not cause increases in Al tolerance and reductions in the survival and N2 fixation effectiveness of Bradyrhizobium strains USDA 143, SEMIA 586, SEMIA 5019, SEMIA 5039 and SEMIA 5073. It also did not alter the resistance to antibiotics of strains USDA 143, SEMIA 5039 and SEMIA 5073, and the genetic diversity of the strains SEMIA 587 and SEMIA 5019.

Superficial femoral vein as substitute for pulmonary artery reconstruction after resection for bronchovascular fistula

Post-lobectomy bronchovascular fistula (BVF) associated with massive hemoptysis is a rare but life-threatening complication. Surgical options include completion pneumonectomy or BVF resection with end-to-end anastomosis of the airways and reconstruction of the pulmonary artery (PA) by interposition of an appropriate substitute. We report PA resection and successful reconstruction by interposition of an autologous reversed superficial femoral vein (SFV) segment for this purpose.

Monitoramento e avaliação do risco de contaminação por pesticidas em água superficial e subterrânea na região de Guaíra

O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar os níveis de ocorrência de pesticidas em água, tendo em vista preservar a água de contaminação por esses produtos na região de Guaíra, SP. A hipótese foi que o uso intensivo de pesticidas nessa região propiciaria a contaminação das águas superficiais e subterrâneas por seus resíduos. Para a caracterização das propriedades, das características e da dinâmica da água do solo, foi selecionada a Fazenda Macaúba por possuir relevo e solos característicos da região. Aproximadamente 80% da área da fazenda é constituída por Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico típico (LVdf), profundo. As áreas cultivadas apresentam um horizonte superficial (Ap) completamente desprovido de sua estrutura natural e, abaixo deste, um horizonte compactado, ambos frutos das práticas agrícolas. Durante dois anos e meio realizou-se o monitoramento do Ribeirão do Jardim que abastece a cidade de Guaíra, bem como de um de seus afluentes e da água subterrânea proveniente do Aqüífero Guarani, à procura de pesticidas. A água superficial foi coletada de 21em 21 dias e a subterrânea, no início e no final do período monitorado (dois anos e meio). Os produtos monitorados, trifluralina, endosulfan, lambda cialotrina, dicofol (4,4 diclorobenzofenona), captan, metil paration, clorotalonil e clorpirifós, foram selecionados a partir de um levantamento dos pesticidas utilizados em quatro áreas agrícolas localizadas na bacia do Ribeirão do Jardim e em razão da efetividade de um método de análise de resíduos múltiplos para sua quantificação. Os resultados analíticos indicaram que não houve contaminação da água subterrânea, mas que ocasionalmente houve contaminação direta das águas de superfície. A não-contaminação da água subterrânea deve-se principalmente às características dos Latossolos, como sua grande espessura, sua textura argilosa e sua grande capacidade de armazenamento de água.