Time Horizons And Smoothing In The Bank Of England’s Reaction Function: The Contrast Between The Standard GMM And Ex Ante Forecast Approaches

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.

Fiscal Sustainability in a New Keynesian Model

Recent work on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in New Keynesian models suggests that it is optimal to allow steady-state debt to follow a random walk. Leith and Wren-Lewis (2012) consider the nature of the timeinconsistency involved in such a policy and its implication for discretionary policy-making. We show that governments are tempted, given inflationary expectations, to utilize their monetary and fiscal instruments in the initial period to change the ultimate debt burden they need to service. We demonstrate that this temptation is only eliminated if following shocks, the new steady-state debt is equal to the original (efficient) debt level even though there is no explicit debt target in the government’s objective function. Analytically and in a series of numerical simulations we show which instrument is used to stabilize the debt depends crucially on the degree of nominal inertia and the size of the debt-stock. We also show that the welfare consequences of introducing debt are negligible for precommitment policies, but can be significant for discretionary policy. Finally, we assess the credibility of commitment policy by considering a quasi-commitment policy which allows for different probabilities of reneging on past promises. This on-line Appendix extends the results of this paper.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

Public Policy and Ageing in Northern Ireland: Identifying Levers for Change

Public Policy and Ageing in Northern Ireland: Identifying Levers for Change Judith Cross, Policy Officer with the Centre for Ageing Research Development in Ireland (CARDI)��������Introduction Identifying a broad range of key public policy initiatives as they relate to age can facilitate discussion and create new knowledge within and across government to maximise the opportunities afforded by an ageing population. This article looks at how examining the current public policy frameworks in Northern Ireland can present opportunities for those working in this field for the benefit of older people. Good policy formulation needs to be evidence-based, flexible, innovative and look beyond institutional boundaries. Bringing together architects and occupational therapists, for example, has the potential to create better and more effective ways relevant to health, housing, social services and government departments. Traditional assumptions of social policy towards older people have tended to be medically focused with an emphasis on care and dependency. This in turn has consequences for the design and delivery of services for older people. It is important that these assumptions are challenged as changes in thinking and attitudes can lead to a redefinition of ageing, resulting in policies and practices that benefit older people now and in the future. Older people, their voices and experiences, need to be central to these developments. The Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland The Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (CARDI) (1) is a not for profit organisation developed by leaders from the ageing field across Ireland (North and South) including age sector focused researchers and academics, statutory and voluntary, and is co-chaired by Professor Robert Stout and Professor Davis Coakley. CARDI has been established to provide a mechanism for greater collaboration among age researchers, for wider dissemination of ageing research information and to advance a research agenda relevant to the needs of older people in Ireland, North and South. Operating at a strategic level and in an advisory capacity, CARDI�۪s work focuses on promoting research co-operation across sectors and disciplines and concentrates on influencing the strategic direction of research into older people and ageing in Ireland. It has been strategically positioned around the following four areas: Identifying and establishing ageing research priorities relevant to policy and practice in Ireland, North and South;Promoting greater collaboration and co-operation on ageing research in order to build an ageing research community in Ireland, North and South;Stimulating research in priority areas that can inform policy and practice relating to ageing and older people in Ireland, North and South;Communicating strategic research issues on ageing to raise the profile of ageing research in Ireland, North and South, and its role in informing policy and practice. Context of Ageing in Ireland Ireland �۪s population is ageing. One million people aged 60 and over now live on the island of Ireland. By 2031, it is expected that Northern Ireland�۪s percentage of older people will increase to 28% and the Republic of Ireland�۪s to 23%. The largest increase will be in the older old; the number aged 80+ is expected to triple by the same date. However while life expectancy has increased, it is not clear that life without disability and ill health has increased to the same extent. A growing number of older people may face the combined effects of a decline in physical and mental function, isolation and poverty. Policymakers, service providers and older people alike recognise the need to create a high quality of life for our ageing population. This challenge can be meet by addressing the problems relating to healthy ageing, reducing inequalities in later life and creating services that are shaped by, and appropriate for, older people. Devolution and Structures of Government in Northern Ireland The Agreement (2) reached in the Multi-Party Negotiations in Belfast 1998 established the Northern Ireland Assembly which has full legislative authority for all transferred matters. The majority of social and economic public policy such as; agriculture, arts, education, health, environment and planning is determined by the Northern Ireland Assembly at Stormont. There are 11 Government Departments covering the main areas of responsibility with 108 elected Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA�۪s). The powers of the Northern Ireland Assembly do not cover ��� reserved�۪ matters or ��� excepted�۪ matters . These are the responsibility of Westminster and include issues such as, tax, social security, policing, justice, defence, immigration and foreign affairs. Northern Ireland has 18 elected Members of Parliament (MP�۪s) to the House of Commons. Public Policy Context in Northern Ireland The economic, social and political consequence of an ageing population is a challenge for policy makers across government. Considering the complex and diverse causal factors that contribute to ageing in Northern Ireland, there are a number of areas of government policy at regional, national and international levels that are likely to impact in this area. International The Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing (3) and the Research Agenda on Ageing for the 21st Century (4) provide important mechanisms for furthering research into ageing. The United Kingdom has signed up to these. The Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing commits member states to a systematic review of the Plan of Action through Regional Implementation Strategies. The United Kingdom�۪s Regional Implementation Strategy covers Northern Ireland. National At National level, pension and social security are high on the agenda. The Pensions Act (5) became law in 2007 and links pensions increases with earnings as opposed to prices from 2012. Additional credits for people raising children and caring for older people to boost their pensions were introduced. Some protections are included for those who lost occupational pensions as a result of underfunded schemes being wound up before April 2005. In relation to State Pensions and benefits, this Act will bring changes to state pensions in future. The Act now places the Pension Credit element which is up-rated in line with or above earnings, on a permanent, statutory footing. Regional At regional level there are a number of age related public policy initiatives that have the potential to impact positively on the lives of older people in Northern Ireland. Some are specific to ageing such as the Ageing in an Inclusive Society (6) and others by their nature are cross-cutting such as Lifetime Opportunities: Governments Anti-Poverty Strategy for Northern Ireland (7). The main public policy framework in Northern Ireland is the Programme for Government: Building a Better Future, 2008-2011(PfG) (8) . The PfG, is the overarching high level policy framework for Northern Ireland and provides useful principles for ageing research and public policy in Northern Ireland. The PfG vision is to build a peaceful, fair and prosperous society in Northern Ireland, with respect for the rule of law. A number of Public Service Agreements (PSA) aligned to the PfG confirm key actions that will be taken to support the priorities that the Government aim to achieve over the next three years. For example objective 2 of PSA 7: Making Peoples�۪ Lives Better: Drive a programme across Government to reduce poverty and address inequality and disadvantage, refers to taking forward strategic action to promote social inclusion for older people; and to deliver a strong independent voice for older people. The Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (OFMDFM) have recently appointed an Interim Older People�۪s Advocate, Dame Joan Harbison to provide a focus for older peoples issues across Government. Ageing in an Inclusive Society is the cross-departmental strategy for older people in Northern Ireland and was launched in March 2005. It sets out the approach to be taken across Government to promote and support the inclusion of older people. The vision coupled with six strategic objectives form the basis of the action plans accompanying the strategy. The vision is: ���To ensure that age related policies and practices create an enabling environment, which offers everyone the opportunity to make informed choices so that they may pursue healthy, active and positive ageing.�۝ (Ageing in an Inclusive Society, Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister, 2005) Action planning and maintaining momentum across government in relation to this strategy has proved to be slower than anticipated. It is proposed to refresh this Strategy in line with Opportunity Age ��� meeting the challenges of ageing in the 21st Century (9). There are a number of policy levers elsewhere which can also be used to promote the positive aspects of an ageing society. The Investing for Health (10) and A Healthier Future:A 20 Year Vision for Health and Well-being in Northern Ireland (11), seek to ensure that the overall vision for health and wellbeing is achievable and provides a useful framework for ageing policy and research in the health area. These health initiatives have the potential to positively impact on the quality of life of older people and provide a useful framework for improving current policy and practice. In addition to public policy initiatives, the anti-discrimination frameworks in terms of employment in Northern Ireland cover age as well as a range of other grounds. Goods facilitates and services are currently excluded from the Employment Equality (age) Regulations (NI) 2006 (12). Supplementing the anti-discrimination measures, Section 75 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 (13), unique to Northern Ireland, places a statutory obligation on public authorities in fulfilling their functions to promote equality of opportunity across nine grounds, one of which is age(14). This positive duty has the potential to make a real difference to the lives of older people in Northern Ireland. Those affected by policy decisions must be consulted and their interests taken into account. This provides an opportunity for older people and their representatives to participate in public policy-making, right from the start of the process. Policy and Research Interface ���Ageing research is vital as decisions in relation to policy and practice and resource allocation will be made on the best available information�۝. (CARDI�۪s Strategic Plan 2008-2011) As outlined earlier, CARDI has been established to bridge the gap to ensure that research reaches those involved in making policy decisions. CARDI is stimulating the ageing research agenda in Ireland through a specific research fund that has a policy and practice focus. My work is presently focusing on helping to build a greater awareness of the key policy levers and providing opportunities for those within research and policy to develop closer links. The development of this shared understanding by establishing these links between researchers and policy makers is seen as the best predictor for research utilization. It is important to acknowledge and recognise that researchers and policy makers operate in different institutional, political and cultural contexts. Research however needs to ���resonate�۪ with the contextual factors in which policy makers operate. Conclusions Those working within the public policy field recognise all too often that the development of government policies and initiatives in respect of age does not guarantee that they will result in changes in actual provision of services, despite Government recommendations and commitments. The identification of public policy initiatives as they relate to age has the potential to highlight persistent and entrenched difficulties that social policy has previously failed to address. Furthermore, the identification of these difficulties can maximise the opportunities for progressing these across government. A focus on developing effective and meaningful targets to ensure measurable outcomes in public policy for older people can assist in this. Access to sound, credible and up-to-date evidence will be vital in this respect. As well as a commitment to working across departmental boundaries to effect change. Further details: If you would like to discuss this paper or for further information about CARDI please contact: Judith Cross, Policy Officer, Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland CARDI). t: +44 (0) 28 9069 0066; m: +353 (0) 867 904 171; e: judith@cardi.ie ; or visit our website at: www.cardi.ie References 1) Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland (2008) Strategic Plan 2008-2011. Belfast. CARDI 2) The Agreement: Agreement Reached in the Multi-Party Negotiations. Belfast 1998 3) Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing. http://www.un.org/ageing/ 4) UN Programme on Ageing (2007) Research Agenda on Ageing for the 21st Century: 2007 Update. New York. New York. UN Programme on Ageing and the International Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics. 5) The Pensions Act 2007 Chapter 22 6) Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (2005). Ageing in an Inclusive Society. Belfast. OFMDFM Central Anti-Poverty Unit. 7) Office of the First Minister and deputy First Minister (2005). Lifetime Opportunities: Government�۪s Anti-Poverty and Social Inclusion Strategy for Northern Ireland. Belfast. OFMDFM Central Anti-Poverty Unit. 8) Northern Ireland Executive (2008) Building a Better Future: Programme for Government 2008-2011. Belfast. OFMDFM Economic Policy Unit. 9) Department for Work and Pensions, (2005) Opportunity Age: Meeting the Challenges of Ageing in the 21 st Century. London. DWP. 10) Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSS&PS) (2002) Investing for Health. Belfast. DHSS&PS. 11) Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSS&PS) (2005) A Healthier Future:A 20 Year Vision for Health and Well-being in Northern Ireland Belfast. DHSS&PS. �� 12) The Employment Equality (Age) Regulations (Northern Ireland) 2006 SR2006 No.261 13) The Northern Ireland Act 1998, Part VII, S75 14) The nine grounds covered under S75 of the Northern Ireland Act are: gender, religion, race, sexual orientation, those with dependents, disability, political opinion, marital status and age.

Metabolic and structural rearrangement during dark-induced autophagy in soybean (Glycine max L.) nodules: an electron microscopy and 31P and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance study.

The effects of dark-induced stress on the evolution of the soluble metabolites present in senescent soybean (Glycine max L.) nodules were analysed in vitro using (13)C- and (31)P-NMR spectroscopy. Sucrose and trehalose were the predominant soluble storage carbons. During dark-induced stress, a decline in sugars and some key glycolytic metabolites was observed. Whereas 84% of the sucrose disappeared, only one-half of the trehalose was utilised. This decline coincides with the depletion of Gln, Asn, Ala and with an accumulation of ureides, which reflect a huge reduction of the N(2) fixation. Concomitantly, phosphodiesters and compounds like P-choline, a good marker of membrane phospholipids hydrolysis and cell autophagy, accumulated in the nodules. An autophagic process was confirmed by the decrease in cell fatty acid content. In addition, a slight increase in unsaturated fatty acids (oleic and linoleic acids) was observed, probably as a response to peroxidation reactions. Electron microscopy analysis revealed that, despite membranes dismantling, most of the bacteroids seem to be structurally intact. Taken together, our results show that the carbohydrate starvation induced in soybean by dark stress triggers a profound metabolic and structural rearrangement in the infected cells of soybean nodule which is representative of symbiotic cessation.

The Role of Parliaments in European foreign policy

This book addresses the debate on the democratic deficit of European foreign and defence policies. This debate revolves around two dimensions. The first one has to do with the accountability of CFSP institutions. Is the current degree of parliamentary oversight of these policies the most appropriate? Has the disengagement of national parliaments regarding European foreign policy been counterbalanced by giving sufficient powers to the European Parliament? And, regarding the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), are national parliaments effectively controlling it? The second dimension of the debate is related to the wider question of whether the European Parliament is capable of legitimising EU policy outcomes. In the absence of a Europe-wide demos and of a true party system, what interests do Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent when dealing with foreign policy issues? Are there transnational cleavages in foreign policy or are they mainly national? Furthermore, is the European Parliament developing a transnational, autonomous stance on foreign policy issues, different from that of the Council or the Commission? The present volume is the result of the 2nd Meeting of the FORNET Working Group on “Evolution and Accountability of CFSP Institutions” organised by the Observatory of European Foreign Policy (Research line of the Institut Universitari d’Estudis Europeus), which took place in Barcelona, the 4 and 5 March 2005.

Priors about observables in vector autoregressions

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregressive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state the inverse problem to be solved and we propose a numerical algorithm that works well in practical situations with a very large number of parameters. We prove various convergence theorems for the algorithm. As an application, we first show that the results in Christiano et al. (1999) are very sensitive to the introduction of various priors that are widely used. These priors turn out to be associated with undesirable priors on observables. But an empirical prior on observables helps clarify the relevance of these estimates: we find much higher persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks than the one reported in Christiano et al. (1999) and a significantly larger total effect.

An analysis of the metabolic patterns of two rural communities affected by soy expansion in the North of Argentina

The soy expansion model in Argentina generates structural changes in traditional lifestyles that can be associated with different biophysical and socioeconomic impacts. To explore this issue, we apply an innovative method for integrated assessment - the Multi Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework - to characterize two communities in the Chaco Region, Province of Formosa, North of Argentina. These communities have recently experienced the expansion of soy production, altering their economic activity, energy consumption patterns, land use, and human time allocation. The integrated characterization presented in the paper illustrates the differences (biophysical, socioeconomic, and historical) between the two communities that can be associated with different responses. The analysis of the factors behind these differences has important policy implications for the sustainable development of local communities in the area.

Changing Diets in China’s Cities: Empirical Fact or Urban Legend, November 2006

China’s economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer preferences. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period.

The monetary pillar and the great financial crisis

Since its inception, a most distinctive (and controversial) feature of the ECB monetary policy strategy has been its emphasis on money and monetary analysis, which constitute the basis of the so-called monetary pillar. The present paper examines the performance of the monetary pillar around the recent financial crisis episode, and discusses its prospects in light of the renewed emphasis on financial stability and the need for enhanced macro-prudential policies.

First impressions matter: Signalling as a source of policy dynamics

We first establish that policymakers on the Bank of England's Monetary PolicyCommittee choose lower interest rates with experience. We then reject increasingconfidence in private information or learning about the structure of the macroeconomy as explanations for this shift. Instead, a model in which voters signal theirhawkishness to observers better fits the data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns orpleasing colleagues. There is also no evidence of capture by industry. The papersuggests that policy-motivated reputation building may be important for explainingdynamics in experts' policy choices.

Two-sided learning in New Keynesian models: Dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank(two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economyhave asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. Weassume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct fordifferent sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model ofthe economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs througha statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study theshort-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularlywith respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learningcan generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behaviorof the variables in the model in a significant way. Our simulations do not convergeto a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source thatinvalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identifya novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communicationcan be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified.