Dégradation des forêts et stock de carbone dans la biomasse épigée de la forêt dense humide de Manompana - Nord Est de Madagascar

L’estimation du stock de carbone contenu dans les forêts peut être effectuée de plusieurs manières. Les méthodes les plus connues sont destructives et nécessitent l’abattage d’un grand nombre représentatif d’arbres. Cette représentativité est difficilement atteinte dans les forêts tropicales, présentant une diversité d’espèces exceptionnelles, comme à Madagascar. Afin d’évaluer le niveau de dégradation des forêts, une étude d'images par télédétection est effectuée au moyen de l’analyse du signal radiométrique, combinée à un inventaire non destructif de biomasse. L’étude de la dynamique du paysage proposé est alors basée sur une correction atmosphérique d’une image SPOT 5, de l’année 2009, et sur une classification semi supervisée de l’occupation des sols, combinant une classification préliminaire non supervisée, un échantillonnage aléatoire des classes et une classification supervisée avec un maximum de vraisemblance. La validation est effectuée à l’aide de points indépendants relevés lors des inventaires de biomasse avec des valeurs du stock de carbone bien précises. La classification non supervisée a permis de ressortir deux classes de forêt dénommées « peu dégradée » et « dégradée ». La première désigne l’état climax (le stock de carbone a atteint une valeur qui varie peu) alors que la seconde est caractérisée par un taux de carbone plus faible que le niveau climax, mais qui peut être atteint sans perturbation. Cette première classification permet alors de répartir les placettes d’inventaire dans chaque classe. La méthode d’inventaire recueille à la fois des données dendrométriques classiques (espèce, densité, hauteur totale, hauteur fût, diamètre) et des échantillons représentatifs de branches et de feuilles sur un arbre. Ces différents paramètres avec la densité de bois permettent d’établir une équation allométrique de laquelle est estimée la biomasse totale d’un arbre et conséquemment de la formation forestière. Par la suite, la classification supervisée a été effectuée à partir d’échantillons aléatoires donnant la valeur de séparabilité des classes, de la classification finale. De plus, les valeurs de stocks de carbone à l’hectare, estimées de chaque placette, ont permis de valider cette classification et d’avoir une évaluation de la précision. La connaissance de ce niveau de dégradation issue de données satellitaires à haute résolution spatiale, combinées à des données d’inventaire, ouvre le champ du suivi interannuel du stock de carbone et subséquemment de la modélisation de la situation future du stock de carbone dans différents types de forêts.

Deforestation and forest degradation monitoring and assessment of biomass and carbon stock of lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region, Madagascar

Madagascar is currently developing a policy and strategies to enhance the sustainable management of its natural resources, encouraged by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and REDD. To set up a sustainable financing scheme methodologies have to be provided that estimate, prevent and mitigate leakage, develop national and regional baselines, and estimate carbon benefits. With this research study this challenge was tried to be addressed by analysing a lowland rainforest in the Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo, North East of Madagascar. For two distinguished forest degradation stages: “low degraded forest” and “degraded forest” aboveground biomass and carbon stock was assessed. The corresponding rates of carbon within those two classes were calculated and linked to a multi-temporal set of SPOT satellite data acquired in 1991, 2004 and 2009. Deforestation and particularly degradation and the related carbon stock developments were analysed. With the assessed data for the 3 years 1991, 2004 and 2009 it was possible to model a baseline and to develop a forest prediction for 2020 for Analanjirofo region in the district of Soanierana Ivongo. These results, developed applying robust methods, may provide important spatial information regarding the priorities in planning and implementation of future REDD+ activities in the area.

Does pet ownership in infancy lead to asthma or allergy at school age? Pooled analysis of individual participant data from 11 European birth cohorts

Objective To examine the associations between pet keeping in early childhood and asthma and allergies in children aged 6–10 years. Design Pooled analysis of individual participant data of 11 prospective European birth cohorts that recruited a total of over 22,000 children in the 1990s. Exposure definition Ownership of only cats, dogs, birds, rodents, or cats/dogs combined during the first 2 years of life. Outcome definition Current asthma (primary outcome), allergic asthma, allergic rhinitis and allergic sensitization during 6–10 years of age. Data synthesis Three-step approach: (i) Common definition of outcome and exposure variables across cohorts; (ii) calculation of adjusted effect estimates for each cohort; (iii) pooling of effect estimates by using random effects meta-analysis models. Results We found no association between furry and feathered pet keeping early in life and asthma in school age. For example, the odds ratio for asthma comparing cat ownership with “no pets” (10 studies, 11489 participants) was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.28) (I2 = 9%; p = 0.36). The odds ratio for asthma comparing dog ownership with “no pets” (9 studies, 11433 participants) was 0.77 (0.58 to 1.03) (I2 = 0%, p = 0.89). Owning both cat(s) and dog(s) compared to “no pets” resulted in an odds ratio of 1.04 (0.59 to 1.84) (I2 = 33%, p = 0.18). Similarly, for allergic asthma and for allergic rhinitis we did not find associations regarding any type of pet ownership early in life. However, we found some evidence for an association between ownership of furry pets during the first 2 years of life and reduced likelihood of becoming sensitized to aero-allergens. Conclusions Pet ownership in early life did not appear to either increase or reduce the risk of asthma or allergic rhinitis symptoms in children aged 6–10. Advice from health care practitioners to avoid or to specifically acquire pets for primary prevention of asthma or allergic rhinitis in children should not be given.

Separation of Ownership from Control and Discretionary Managerial Behaviour in a Transition Economy

This study was the final stage of a four-year study of managerial behaviour and company performance in Bulgaria and examined the influence of changing ownership and control structures of companies on managerial behaviour and initiative. It provides a theoretical summary of the specific types of ownership, control, governance structures and managerial strategies in the Bulgarian transitional economy during 1992-1996. It combines two theoretical approaches, the property-rights approach to show concentrated property-rights structure and private and majority types of control as determinants of efficient enterprise risk bearing and constrained managerial discretion, and the agency theory approach to reveal the efficient role of direct non-market governance mechanisms over managers. Mr. Peev also used empirical information collected from the Central Statistical office in Bulgaria, three different enterprise investigations of corporatised state-owned enterprises between 1992 and 1994, and his own data base of privatised and private de novo industrial companies in 1996-1996. The project gives a detailed description of the main property-rights structures in Bulgaria at the present time and of the various control structures related to these. It found that there is a strong owner type of control in private and privatised firms, although, contrary to expectations, 100% state -owned enterprises tended to be characterised by a separation of ownership from control, leaving scope for managerial discretion. Mr. Peev predicts that after the forthcoming mass privatisation, many companies will acquire a dispersed ownership structure and there will be a greater separation of ownership from control and potential or inefficient managerial behaviour. The next aspect considered in detail was governance structures and the influence of the generally unstable macroeconomic environment in the country during the period in question. In examining managerial strategies, Mr. Peev divided the years since 1990 into 3 periods. Even in the first period (1990-1992) there were some signs of a more efficient role for managers and between 1992 and 1994 the picture of control structures and different managerial behaviour in state-owned companies became more diversified. Managerial strategies identified included managerial initiatives for privatisation, where managers took initiative in resolving problems of property rights and introducing restructuring measures and privatisation proposals, managerial initiatives for restructuring without privatisation, and passive adjustment and passive management, where managers seek outside services for marketing, finance management, etc. in order to adjust to the new environment. During 1995-1996 some similarities and differences between the managerial behaviour of privatised and state-owned firms emerged. Firstly, the former have undergone many changes in investment and technology, while managers of state-owned companies have changed little in this field, indicating that the private property-rights structure is more efficient for the long-term adaptation of enterprises. In the area of strategies relating to product quality, marketing, and pricing policy there was little difference between managers of private, privatised and state-owned firms. The most passive managerial behaviour was found in non-incorporated state-owned firms, although these have only an insignificant stake in the economy.

Neuropathological survey of fallen stock: Active surveillance reveals high prevalence of encephalitic listeriosis in small ruminants

This paper describes the prevalence of brain lesions in the Swiss fallen stock population of small ruminants. 3075 whole brains (75% sheep, 25% goats) were collected as part of a year-long active survey of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants conducted by the Swiss authorities between July 2004 and July 2005. All fallen stock brains were systematically examined by histopathology to obtain reliable data on histologically identifiable brain lesions. Lesions were found in an unexpectedly high number of animals (8.1% of all examined brains). A wide spectrum of diseases was detected showing that this approach provides an excellent opportunity to screen for the prevalence of neurological diseases. Encephalitic listeriosis was by far the most frequent cause of CNS lesions in both species and its prevalence was unexpectedly high when compared to notified confirmed cases. In conclusion, the prevalence of listeriosis as estimated by passive surveillance based on the notification of clinical suspects has been underestimated in the past.

Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China

A great increase of private car ownership took place in China from 1980 to 2009 with the development of the economy. To explain the relationship between car ownership and economic and social changes, an ordinary least squares linear regression model is developed using car ownership per capita as the dependent variable with GDP, savings deposits and highway mileages per capita as the independent variables. The model is tested and corrected for econometric problems such as spurious correlation and cointegration. Finally, the regression model is used to project oil consumption by the Chinese transportation sector through 2015. The result shows that about 2.0 million barrels of oil will be consumed by private cars in conservative scenario, and about 2.6 million barrels of oil per day in high case scenario in 2015. Both of them are much higher than the consumption level of 2009, which is 1.9 million barrels per day. It also shows that the annual growth rate of oil demand by transportation is 2.7% - 3.1% per year in the conservative scenario, and 6.9% - 7.3% per year in the high case forecast scenario from 2010 to 2015. As a result, actions like increasing oil efficiency need to be taken to deal with challenges of the increasing demand for oil.

Effects of Ownership on Hospital Efficiency in Germany

The objective of our study was to evaluate the efficiency of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals in Germany. First, bootstrapped data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to evaluate the efficiency of a panel (n = 1,046) of public, private for-profit, and private non-profit hospitals between 2002 and 2006. This was followed by a second-step truncated linear regression model with bootstrapped DEA efficiency scores as dependent variable. The results show that public hospitals performed significantly better than their private for-profit and non-profit counterparts. In addition, we found a significant positive association between hospital size and efficiency, and that competitive pressure had a significant negative impact on hospital efficiency.

What Does the Market Learn from Stock Offering Revisions?

We examine the disclosure of size revisions of seasoned stock offerings to see what information revisions impart to investros. Revisions could deliver firm-originated infoirmation, which discloses something managers know about the firm. Alternatively, they could disseminate market-originated information, which is information market participants have but which is not conveyed until trading takes place. Our results reject the notion that revisions reveal firm-originated news. Instead, the results are consistent with the market-originated news hypothesis and suggest a mechanism that investros and underwriters use to learn about the demand for an offering.