951 resultados para Statistical hypothesis testing
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INTRODUCTION : The tuberculin test is a diagnostic method for detecting latent tuberculosis (TB) infection, especially among disease contact cases. The objective of this study was to analyze the prevalence and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among TB contact cases. METHODS : A retrospective cohort study was performed in a reference center for TB. The study population consisted of 2,425 patients who underwent a tuberculin test from 2003 to 2010 and whose results indicated contact with individuals with TB. The data were collected from the registry book of the tuberculin tests, patient files and the Information System Records of Notification Grievance. To verify the evolution of TB, case records through September 2014 were consulted. Data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). In all hypothesis tests, a significance level of 0.05 was used. RESULTS : From the studied sample, 435 (17.9%) contacts did not return for reading. Among the 1,990 contacts that completed the test, the prevalence of latent TB infection was 35.4%. Of these positive cases, 50.6% were referred to treatment; the dropout rate was 42.5%. Among all of the contacts, the TB prevalence was 1.8%, from which 13.2% abandoned treatment. CONCLUSIONS : The collected data indicate the need for more effective public policies to improve TB control, including administering tests that do not require a return visit for reading, enhancing contact tracing and encouraging actions that reinforce full treatment adherence.
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INTRODUCTION : In 2011, the Brazilian Ministry of Health rolled out a program for the external quality assessment of rapid human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests using the dried tube specimen (DTS) method (EQA-RT/DTS-HIV). Our objective was to evaluate the implementation of this program at 71 voluntary counseling and testing centers (VCTCs) in the Brazilian Legal Amazonian area one year after its introduction. METHODS : Quantitative and qualitative study that analyzed secondary data and interviews with healthcare workers (HCWs) (n=39) and VCTC coordinators (n=32) were performed. The assessment used 18 key indicators to evaluate the three dimensions of the program's logical framework: structure, process, and result. Each indicator was scored from 1-4, and the aggregate results corresponding to the dimensions were expressed as proportions. The results were compared to the perceptions of the HCWs and coordinators regarding the EQA-RT/DTS-HIV program. RESULTS: The aggregate scores for the three dimensions of structure, process, and result were 91.7%, 78.6%, and 95%, respectively. The lowest score in each dimension corresponded to a different indicator: access to Quali-TR online system 39% (structure), registration in Quali-TR online system 38.7% (process), and VCTC completed the full process in the program's first round 63.4% (result). Approximately 36% of the HCWs and 52% of the coordinators reported enhanced trust in the program for its rapid HIV testing performance. CONCLUSIONS: All three program dimensions exhibited satisfactory results (>75%). Nevertheless, the study findings highlight the need to improve certain program components. Additionally, long-term follow-ups is needed to provide a more thorough picture of the process for external quality assessment.
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This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.
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In this work project we study the tail properties of currency returns and analyze whether changes in the tail indices of these series have occurred over time as a consequence of turbulent periods. Our analysis is based on the methods introduced by Quintos, Fan and Phillips (2001), Candelon and Straetmans (2006, 2013), and their extensions. Specifically, considering a sample of daily data from December 31, 1993 to February 13, 2015 we apply the recursive test in calendar time (forward test) and in reverse calendar time (backward test) and indeed detect falls and rises in the tail indices, signifying increases and decreases in the probability of extreme events.
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In this paper, we analyze the behavior of real interest rates over the long-run using historical data for nine developed economies, to assess the extent to which the recent decline observed in most advanced countries is at odds with the past data, as suggested by the Secular Stagnation hypothesis. By using data from 1703 and performing stationarity and structural breaks tests, we find that the recent decline in interest rates is not explained by a structural break in the time series. Our results also show that considering long-run data leads to different conclusions than using short-run data.
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The year is 2015 and the startup and tech business ecosphere has never seen more activity. In New York City alone, the tech startup industry is on track to amass $8 billion dollars in total funding – the highest in 7 years (CB Insights, 2015). According to the Kauffman Index of Entrepreneurship (2015), this figure represents just 20% of the total funding in the United States. Thanks to platforms that link entrepreneurs with investors, there are simply more funding opportunities than ever, and funding can be initiated in a variety of ways (angel investors, venture capital firms, crowdfunding). And yet, in spite of all this, according to Forbes Magazine (2015), nine of ten startups will fail. Because of the unpredictable nature of the modern tech industry, it is difficult to pinpoint exactly why 90% of startups fail – but the general consensus amongst top tech executives is that “startups make products that no one wants” (Fortune, 2014). In 2011, author Eric Ries wrote a book called The Lean Startup in attempts to solve this all-too-familiar problem. It was in this book where he developed the framework for The Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, an iterative process that aims at proving a market before actually launching a product. Ries discusses concepts such as the Minimum Variable Product, the smallest set of activities necessary to disprove a hypothesis (or business model characteristic). Ries encourages acting briefly and often: if you are to fail, then fail fast. In today’s fast-moving economy, an entrepreneur cannot afford to waste his own time, nor his customer’s time. The purpose of this thesis is to conduct an in-depth of analysis of Hypothesis-Driven Entrepreneurship Process, in order to test market viability of a reallife startup idea, ShowMeAround. This analysis will follow the scientific Lean Startup approach; for the purpose of developing a functional business model and business plan. The objective is to conclude with an investment-ready startup idea, backed by rigorous entrepreneurial study.
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COST TU 1404
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COST Action TU 1404
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COST TU 1404
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In the investigation and diagnosis of damages to historical masonry structures, the state of stress of the masonry is an important characteristic that must be determined with as much accuracy as possible. Flat-jack testing is a traditional method used to determine the state of stress in historical masonry structures. However, when irregular masonry is tested the method can cause damage to the masonry units and the accuracy of the method is reduced. An enhanced technique, called tube-jack testing, is being developed at the University of Minho to reduce the damage caused during testing and improve the accuracy when used on irregular masonry. This method uses multiple cylindrical jacks inserted in a line of holes drilled in the mortar joints of the masonry, avoiding damage to the masonry units. Concurrently with the development of tube-jack testing, the effect of stress state on sonic testing is being studied. Sonic testing is often used to determine locations of voids and damage in masonry. The focus of these studies was to determine if the state of stress is influencing the sonic test results. In this paper the results of tube-jack testing and sonic testing on masonry walls, built for the purpose of this study in the laboratory, loaded in compression is presented. The tube-jack testing is used to estimate the state of stress in the masonry and the sonic test results are evaluated based on the effect of the applied load on the wall. Future testing and study are suggested for continued development of these test methods.
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Stressed plants are generally more attacked by galling insects. In this study we investigated the relationship between population abundance and species richness of galling insects on the tree Alchornea castaneaefolia A. JUSS. (Euphorbiaceae), submited to stress induced by the hemiparasite Psittacanthus sp. (Loranthaceae) in the Amazon, Brazil. Branches of A. castaneaefolia attacked by the hemiparasite were more heavily infested by galling insects than non-attacked branches. The field observations partially corroborate the hypothesis that there would be an optimal level of host-plant stress for galling insect establishment.
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This work intends to present a newly developed test setup for dynamic out-of-plane loading using underWater Blast Wave Generators (WBWG) as loading source. Underwater blasting operations have been, during the last decades, subject of research and development of maritime blasting operations (including torpedo studies), aquarium tests for the measurement of blasting energy of industrial explosives and confined underwater blast wave generators. WBWG allow a wide range for the produced blast impulse and surface area distribution. It also avoids the generation of high velocity fragments and reduces atmospheric sound wave. A first objective of this work is to study the behavior of masonry infill walls subjected to blast loading. Three different masonry walls are to be studied, namely unreinforced masonry infill walls and two different reinforcement solutions. These solutions have been studied previously for seismic action mitigation. Subsequently, the walls will be simulated using an explicit finite element code for validation and parametric studies. Finally, a tool to help designers to make informed decisions on the use of infills under blast loading will be presented.
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Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia - Especialidade em Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas