Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

After hours schools as core to the spatial politics of in-betweeness

In this article the authors draw on a larger study in which their overall concern is to illustrate how diasporic identifications develop through a range of scales related to self, family, community, nation and beyond. They consider the Melbourne Greek community as an exemplar of diasporic experience and use it as a case study for their investigation, which is aimed at exploring how transcultural literacies relate to spaces which complicate and enrich identifications. In this article they consider the role of 'after hours' schools in the shaping of diasporic identities. These are community-based schools where Greek language and culture is taught. Commonly, classes are held on Saturday morning or in the evenings during the week. Such schools operate in classrooms that are rented from 'real' schools. By existing in spaces that are commonly occupied by mainstream day schools, students who attend 'after hours' schools experience a form of marginalisation that is also a right of passage. Here the authors argue that such 'in-between' spaces assist with the formation of 'in-between' identities that are emblematic of globalization.

A framework for mapping vegetation over broad spatial extents : a technique to aid land management across jurisdictional boundaries

Mismatches in boundaries between natural ecosystems and land governance units often complicate an ecosystem approach to management and conservation. For example, information used to guide management, such as vegetation maps, may not be available or consistent across entire ecosystems. This study was undertaken within a single biogeographic region (the Murray Mallee) spanning three Australian states. Existing vegetation maps could not be used as vegetation classifications differed between states. Our aim was to describe and map ‘tree mallee’ vegetation consistently across a 104 000km2 area of this region. Hierarchical cluster analyses, incorporating floristic data from 713 sites, were employed to identify distinct vegetation types. Neural network classification models were used to map these vegetation types across the region, with additional data from 634 validation sites providing a measure of map accuracy. Four distinct vegetation types were recognised: Triodia Mallee, Heathy Mallee, Chenopod Mallee and Shrubby Mallee. Neural network models predicted the occurrence of three of them with 79% accuracy. Validation results identified that map accuracy was 67% (kappa = 0.42) when using independent data. The framework employed provides a simple approach to describing and mapping vegetation consistently across broad spatial extents. Specific outcomes include: (1) a system of vegetation classification suitable for use across this biogeographic region; (2) a consistent vegetationmapto inform land-use planning and biodiversity management at local and regional scales; and (3) a quantification of map accuracy using independent data. This approach is applicable to other regions facing similar challenges associated with integrating vegetation data across jurisdictional boundaries.

Ripple effects of house prices : considering spatial correlations in geography and demography

Purpose: Studies into ripple effects have previously focused on the interconnections between house price movements across cities over space and time. These interconnections were widely investigated in previous research using vector autoregression models. However, the effects generated from spatial information could not be captured by conventional vector autoregression models. This research aimed to incorporate spatial lags into a vector autoregression model to illustrate spatial-temporal interconnections between house price movements across the Australian capital cities. Design/methodology/approach: Geographic and demographic correlations were captured by assessing geographic distances and demographic structures between each pair of cities, respectively. Development scales of the housing market were also used to adjust spatial weights. Impulse response functions based on the estimated SpVAR model were further carried out to illustrate the ripple effects. Findings: The results confirmed spatial correlations exist in housing price dynamics in the Australian capital cities. The spatial correlations are dependent more on the geographic rather than the demographic information. Originality/value: This research investigated the spatial heterogeneity and autocorrelations of regional house prices within the context of demographic and geographic information. A spatial vector autoregression model was developed based on the demographic and geographic distance. The temporal and spatial effects on house prices in Australian capital cities were then depicted.

Resisting web proxy-based HTTP attacks by temporal and spatial locality behavior

A novel server-side defense scheme is proposed to resist the Web proxy-based distributed denial of service attack. The approach utilizes the temporal and spatial locality to extract the behavior features of the proxy-to-server traffic, which makes the scheme independent of the traffic intensity and frequently varying Web contents. A nonlinear mapping function is introduced to protect weak signals from the interference of infrequent large values. Then, a new hidden semi-Markov model parameterized by Gaussian-mixture and Gamma distributions is proposed to describe the time-varying traffic behavior of Web proxies. The new method reduces the number of parameters to be estimated, and can characterize the dynamic evolution of the proxy-to-server traffic rather than the static statistics. Two diagnosis approaches at different scales are introduced to meet the requirement of both fine-grained and coarse-grained detection. Soft control is a novel attack response method proposed in this work. It converts a suspicious traffic into a relatively normal one by behavior reshaping rather than rudely discarding. This measure can protect the quality of services of legitimate users. The experiments confirm the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

Coexisting spatio-temporal scales in neuroscience

In this study I propose an epistemological discussion of multiple spatio-temporal scales in neuroscience. Are such scales merely convenient levels of description of structure and function, or do they correspond to irreducible levels of brain organization? What criteria should we employ in order to reduce one level to another, or to identify levels that are not reducible to others? Should we think of these criteria as based on empirical and/or theoretical reasons? Beginning with an empirical criterion - the necessity of different experimental methodologies for the measurement of different phenomena in the same system - I summarize spatial and temporal scales currently used in neuroscience and discuss the possibility of a more general theoretical criterion. I conclude that multiscaling should be recognized as a central concept in the epistemology of neuroscience.

Reproductive Strategies of Brazilian Lizards of the Genus Tropidurus Rodrigues, 1987 (Squamata, Tropiduridae) in the Temporal and Spatial

Reproductive strategy is the set of adaptations that promote the most efficient way that the species will survive under the particular conditions of a determined environment. Understanding these adaptations is important and can help pinpoint populations indicator of environmental changes. Spermatogenesis is a measurable biological process of these adaptations in spatial and temporal scales. We analyzed the morphology of the testes and oviducts of the lizard species that comprise the genus Tropidurus, taking into account the geographical distribution and sympatric relations. For the analysis and the testes were removed from the middle part of the oviducts from Tropidurus etheridge, T oreadicus, T itambere, T spinulosus and T Guarani species, collected in different places in the Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The reproductive period is synchronous for males and females and occurs in September, October and November. Reproductive males were characterized. In the testes are seminiferous tubules with germ cells at different stages of spermatogenesis, with a high epithelium, at present light, free spermatozoa in the lumen and reduction of interstitial tissue. For females, the reproduction peak occurs when the oviduct epithelium is high with secretions and basal nucleus. These months are characterized in the sampled areas over a period of heavy rain and high temperatures. The decline of reproductive period was observed in both sexes, between April and August. Low reproduction in males is characterized by ample light, absence of sperm, only germ cells in the early stages of spermatogenesis are observed (a few spermatogonia and spermatocytes) and interstitial tissue wide. In females, the period of reproductive decline is marked by the absence of unicellular glands in the oviduct epithelium, with higher affinity with the dye. This period corresponds to low rainfall periods and lower temperatures. We propose an analysis of zoological samples; this is a proposal to facilitate the work of many researchers through access to the species, especially rare species.

Honey Ants (Genus Myrmecocystus) Macroecology: Effect of Spatial Patterns on the Relationship between Worker Body Size and Geographic Range Size

Macroecology evaluates the partitioning of physical space and resources among organisms through correlation among ecological variables, such as geographical range size and shape, body size, and population density, measured at large geographical and taxonomic scales. In this article, we analyzed the spatial patterns in worker body size and geographic range size for the 27 described species of honey ants, genus Myrmecocystus Wesmael, in the United States and Mexico, and especially the relationship between these 2 variables after statistically removing their spatial patterns. The 2 variables are correlated, but also displayed significant spatial patterns, as detected by trend surface and spatial autocorrelation analyses. After removing these spatial effects, worker body size and geographic range size were still positively correlated. The relationship, therefore, is not a consequence of spatial effects and it does follow Brown's model, which predicts that the geographic range size will have a positive slope on body size. In this model, the lower population densities caused by foraging activities and local territorial competition are associated with a large geographic range, avoiding stochastic extinction. Although this constraint in local population density does not necessarily hold for small organisms such as insects that could achieve high densities even in very small areas and patchy habitats, it may hold for social insects, especially ants, because of the local competition among colonies.

Spatial variability structure of soil CO2 emission and soil attributes in a sugarcane area

Soil CO2 emission (F-CO2) is influenced by chemical, physical and biological factors that affect the production of CO2 in the soil and its transport to the atmosphere. F-CO2 varies in time and space depending on environmental conditions, including the management of the agricultural area. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial variability structure of F-CO2 and soil attributes in a mechanically harvested sugarcane area (green harvest) using fractal dimension (D-F) derived from isotropic variograms at different scales (fractograms). F-CO2 showed an overall average of 1.51 mu mol CO2 m(-2) s(-1) and correlated significantly (P < 0.05) with soil physical attributes, such as soil bulk density, air-filled pore space, macroporosity and microporosity. Topologically significant DF values were obtained from the characterization of F-CO2 at medium and large scales (above 20 m), with values of 2.92 and 2.90, respectively. The variations in D-F with scales indicate that the spatial variability structure of F-CO2 was similar to that observed for soil temperature and total pore volume and was the inverse of that observed for other soil attributes, such as soil moisture, soil bulk density, microporosity, air-filled pore space, silt and clay content, pH, available phosphorus and the sum of bases. Thus, the spatial variability structure of F-CO2 presented a significant relationship with the spatial variability structure for most soil attributes, indicating the possibility of using fractograms as a tool to better describe the spatial dependence of variables along the scale. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial intra-annual variability of precipitation based on geostatistics. a case study for the Paraiba do Sul Basin, southeastern Brazil

The emphasis in this research is to evaluate the spatial distribution of the precipitation using a geostatistics approach. Seasonal time scales records considering DJF, MAM, JJA e SON periods performed the analysis. Procedures to evaluate the variogram selection and to produce kriging maps were performed in a GIS environment (ArcGIS®). The results showed that kriging method was very suitable to detect both large changes in the whole area as those local small and subtle changes. Kriging demonstrated be a powerful statistical interpolation method that might be very useful in regions with great complexity in climatology and geomorphology.

SPATIAL PATTERN OF FOUR FOREST COMMUNITIES BY RIPLEY'S K FUNCTION IN SAO PAULO STATE

Investigating tree's spatial patterns according to their size classes and according to their more abundant species can provide evidences about the structure of the vegetal community, since the spatial pattern is a key question for forestry ecology studies. The tree spatial organization patterns on the environment depend on several ecological processes and on the specific characteristics of each environment, so that the best understanding of this frame provides important elements for the knowledge on forestry formation. This paper aimed to study tree spatial patterns, according to the diameter classes and from four most abundant species in different forests, in order to provide evidences regarding to the ecology of each vegetal community. The spatial pattern description in each forestry formation was developed using Ripley's K function. The studied forestry formations were: Ombrophilous Forest, Cerradao, Seasonal Forest and Restinga Forest. In this work, a 10.24 ha plot was installed in each forestry formation, and every tree, with a circumference at breast height (CBH) larger than 15 cm were measured, georeferenced and identified. The obtained data highlights the aggregated character in tropical forests, as observed in every studied forest. The 'Cerraddo' and 'Restinga' forest trees showed close aggregate patterns. In the Ombrophilous forest, for all distance scales, the aggregate pattern was meaningful. In the seasonal forest, a random tendency was observed, although a meaningful aggregation was observed in all short distances. The spatial pattern by diameter classes was generally aggregated for trees smaller than 10 cm of diameter and between 10 and 20 cm and random for the others, proving the existence of a tendency which in young trees is more aggregated than in old ones. The spatial pattern of the dominant species is always strongly similar to the general pattern of each forestry formation. The differences between the spatial patterns of two or three coincident species, among the forestry formations, indicate that its pattern is influenced by each different environment. This stands out the importance of its self-ecology and of its ecological processes, intrinsic of each community that can explain the observed patterns.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Length scales of dynamic heterogeneities of low and high molecular weight glass formers from multidimensional NMR

Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist die Untersuchung der räumlichen und zeitlichen Aspekte der heterogenen Dynamik in Modellglasbildnern. Dabei wird vor allem die langsame alpha-Relaxationsdynamik oberhalb des Glasüberganges Tg untersucht. Die nukleare Magnetresonanz zeigt ihre einmalige Vielseitigkeit bei der Untersuchung molekularer Dynamik, wenn die angewandten Techniken und Experimente durch Simulationen unterstützt werden. Die räumliche Aspekt dynamischer Heterogenitäten wird untersucht durch ein reduziertes vierdimensionales Spindiffusionsexperiment (4D3CP), ein Experiment, das Reorientierungsraten örtlich korreliert. Eine Simulation dieses Experimentes an einem System harter Kugeln liefert wertvolle Informationen über die Auswertemethode des 4D3CP Experiments. Glycerol und o-terphenyl werden durch das 4D3CP Experiment untersucht. Die erhaltenen Resultate werden mit bereits publizierten Daten des polymeren Glasbildners PVAc verglichen. Während PVAc und o-terphenyl eine Längenskale von 3.7 nm bzw. 2.9 nm aufweisen, ist die Längenskale von Glycerol signifikant kleiner bei 1.1 nm. Ein neues Experiment, welches sensitiv auf Translationsbewegung reagiert, wird vorgestellt. Durch Verwendung eines pi-Impulszuges kann eine separate Evolution unter dem Hamiltonian der dipolaren Kopplung und der chemischen Verschiebungsanisotropie erreicht werden.

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.