928 resultados para Spatial Distribution
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Als Beispiele für die vielfältigen Phänomene der Physik der Elektronen in niedrigdimensionalen Systemen wurden in dieser Arbeit das Cu(110)(2x1)O-Adsorbatsystem und die violette Li0.9Mo6O17-Bronze untersucht. Das Adsorbatsystem bildet selbstorganisierte quasi-eindimensionale Nanostrukturen auf einer Kupferoberfläche. Die Li-Bronze ist ein Material, das aufgrund seiner Kristallstruktur quasi-eindimensionale elektronische Eigenschaften im Volumen aufweist. Auf der Cu(110)(2x1)O-Oberfläche kann durch Variation der Sauerstoffbedeckung die Größe der streifenartigen CuO-Domänen geändert werden und damit der Übergang von zwei Dimensionen auf eine Dimension untersucht werden. Der Einfluss der Dimensionalität wurde anhand eines unbesetzten elektronischen Oberflächenzustandes studiert. Dessen Energieposition (untere Bandkante) verschiebt mit zunehmender Einschränkung (schmalere CuO-Streifen) zu größeren Energien hin. Dies ist ein bekannter quantenmechanischer Effekt und relativ gut verstanden. Zusätzlich wurde die Lebensdauer des Zustandes auf der voll bedeckten Oberfläche (zwei Dimensionen) ermittelt und deren Veränderung mit der Breite der CuO-Streifen untersucht. Es zeigt sich, dass die Lebensdauer auf schmaleren CuO-Streifen drastisch abnimmt. Dieses Ergebnis ist neu. Es kann im Rahmen eines Fabry-Perot-Modells als Streuung in Zustände außerhalb der CuO-Streifen verstanden werden. Außer den gerade beschriebenen Effekten war es möglich die Ladungsdichte des diskutierten Zustandes orts- und energieabhängig auf den CuO-Streifen zu studieren. Die Li0.9Mo6O17-Bronze wurde im Hinblick auf das Verhalten der elektronischen Zustandsdichte an der Fermikante untersucht. Diese Fragestellung ist besonders wegen der Quasieindimensionalität des Materials interessant. Die Messungen von STS-Spektren in der Nähe der Fermienergie zeigen, dass die Elektronen in der Li0.9Mo6O17-Bronze eine sogenannte Luttingerflüssigkeit ausbilden, die anstatt einer Fermiflüssigkeit in eindimensionalen elektronischen Systemen erwartet wird. Bisher wurde Luttingerflüssigkeitsverhalten erst bei wenigen Materialien und Systemen experimentell nachgewiesen, obschon die theoretischen Voraussagen mehr als 30 Jahre zurückliegen. Ein Charakteristikum einer Luttingerflüssigkeit ist die Abnahme der Zustandsdichte an der Fermienergie mit einem Potenzgesetz. Dieses Verhalten wurde in STS-Spektren dieser Arbeit beobachtet und quantitativ im Rahmen eines Luttingerflüssigkeitsmodells beschrieben. Auch die Temperaturabhängigkeit des Phänomens im Bereich von 5K bis 55K ist konsistent mit der Beschreibung durch eine Luttingerflüssigkeit. Generell zeigen die Untersuchungen dieser Arbeit, dass die Dimensionalität, insbesondere deren Einschränkung, einen deutlichen Einfluss auf die elektronischen Eigenschaften von Systemen und Materialien haben kann.
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The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.
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The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.
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Short summary: This study was undertaken to assess the diversity of plant resources utilized by the local population in south-western Madagascar, the social, ecological and biophysical conditions that drive their uses and availability, and possible alternative strategies for their sustainable use in the region. The study region, ‘Mahafaly region’, located in south-western Madagascar, is one of the country’s most economically, educationally and climatically disadvantaged regions. With an arid steppe climate, the agricultural production is limited by low water availability and a low level of soil nutrients and soil organic carbon. The region comprises the recently extended Tsimanampetsotsa National Park, with numerous sacred and communities forests, which are threatened by slash and burn agriculture and overexploitation of forests resources. The present study analyzed the availability of wild yams and medicinal plants, and their importance for the livelihood of the local population in this region. An ethnobotanical survey was conducted recording the diversity, local knowledge and use of wild yams and medicinal plants utilized by the local communities in five villages in the Mahafaly region. 250 households were randomly selected followed by semi-structured interviews on the socio-economic characteristics of the households. Data allowed us to characterize sociocultural and socioeconomic factors that determine the local use of wild yams and medicinal plants, and to identify their role in the livelihoods of local people. Species-environment relationships and the current spatial distribution of the wild yams were investigated and predicted using ordination methods and a niche based habitat modelling approach. Species response curves along edaphic gradients allowed us to understand the species requirements on habitat conditions. We thus investigated various alternative methods to enhance the wild yam regeneration for their local conservation and their sustainable use in the Mahafaly region. Altogether, six species of wild yams and a total of 214 medicinal plants species from 68 families and 163 genera were identified in the study region. Results of the cluster and discriminant analysis indicated a clear pattern on resource, resulted in two groups of household and characterized by differences in livestock numbers, off-farm activities, agricultural land and harvests. A generalized linear model highlighted that economic factors significantly affect the collection intensity of wild yams, while the use of medicinal plants depends to a higher degree on socio-cultural factors. The gradient analysis on the distribution of the wild yam species revealed a clear pattern for species habitats. Species models based on NPMR (Nonparametric Multiplicative Regression analysis) indicated the importance of vegetation structure, human interventions, and soil characteristics to determine wild yam species distribution. The prediction of the current availability of wild yam resources showed that abundant wild yam resources are scarce and face high harvest intensity. Experiments on yams cultivation revealed that germination of seeds was enhanced by using pre-germination treatments before planting, vegetative regeneration performed better with the upper part of the tubers (corms) rather than the sets of tubers. In-situ regeneration was possible for the upper parts of the wild tubers but the success depended significantly on the type of soil. The use of manure (10-20 t ha¹) increased the yield of the D. alata and D. alatipes by 40%. We thus suggest the promotion of other cultivated varieties of D. alata found regions neighbouring as the Mahafaly Plateau.
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Die Miniaturisierung von konventioneller Labor- und Analysetechnik nimmt eine zentrale Rolle im Bereich der allgemeinen Lebenswissenschaften und medizinischen Diagnostik ein. Neuartige und preiswerte Technologieplattformen wie Lab-on-a-Chip (LOC) oder Mikrototalanalysesysteme (µTAS) versprechen insbesondere im Bereich der Individualmedizin einen hohen gesellschaftlichen Nutzen zur frühzeitigen und nichtinvasiven Diagnose krankheitsspezifischer Indikatoren. Durch den patientennahen Einsatz preiswerter und verlässlicher Mikrochips auf Basis hoher Qualitätsstandards entfallen kostspielige und zeitintensive Zentrallaboranalysen, was gleichzeitig Chancen für den globalen Einsatz - speziell in Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern - bietet. Die technischen Herausforderungen bei der Realisierung moderner LOC-Systeme sind in der kontrollierten und verlässlichen Handhabung kleinster Flüssigkeitsmengen sowie deren diagnostischem Nachweis begründet. In diesem Kontext wird der erfolgreichen Integration eines fernsteuerbaren Transports von biokompatiblen, magnetischen Mikro- und Nanopartikeln eine Schlüsselrolle zugesprochen. Die Ursache hierfür liegt in der vielfältigen Einsetzbarkeit, die durch die einzigartigen Materialeigenschaften begründet sind. Diese reichen von der beschleunigten, aktiven Durchmischung mikrofluidischer Substanzvolumina über die Steigerung der molekularen Interaktionsrate in Biosensoren bis hin zur Isolation und Aufreinigung von krankheitsspezifischen Indikatoren. In der Literatur beschriebene Ansätze basieren auf der dynamischen Transformation eines makroskopischen, zeitabhängigen externen Magnetfelds in eine mikroskopisch veränderliche potentielle Energielandschaft oberhalb magnetisch strukturierter Substrate, woraus eine gerichtete und fernsteuerbare Partikelbewegung resultiert. Zentrale Kriterien, wie die theoretische Modellierung und experimentelle Charakterisierung der magnetischen Feldlandschaft in räumlicher Nähe zur Oberfläche der strukturierten Substrate sowie die theoretische Beschreibung der Durchmischungseffekte, wurden jedoch bislang nicht näher beleuchtet, obwohl diese essentiell für ein detailliertes Verständnis der zu Grunde liegenden Mechanismen und folglich für einen Markteintritt zukünftiger Geräte sind. Im Rahmen der vorgestellten Arbeit wurde daher ein neuartiger Ansatz zur erfolgreichen Integration eines Konzepts zum fernsteuerbaren Transport magnetischer Partikel zur Anwendung in modernen LOC-Systemen unter Verwendung von magnetisch strukturierten Exchange-Bias (EB) Dünnschichtsystemen verfolgt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich das Verfahren der ionenbe-schussinduzierten magnetischen Strukturierung (IBMP) von EB-Systemen zur Herstellung von maßgeschneiderten magnetischen Feldlandschaften (MFL) oberhalb der Substratoberfläche, deren Stärke und räumlicher Verlauf auf Nano- und Mikrometerlängenskalen gezielt über die Veränderung der Materialparameter des EB-Systems via IBMP eingestellt werden kann, eignet. Im Zuge dessen wurden erstmals moderne, experimentelle Verfahrenstechniken (Raster-Hall-Sonden-Mikroskopie und rastermagnetoresistive Mikroskopie) in Kombination mit einem eigens entwickelten theoretischen Modell eingesetzt, um eine Abbildung der MFL in unterschiedlichen Abstandsbereichen zur Substratoberfläche zu realisieren. Basierend auf der quantitativen Kenntnis der MFL wurde ein neuartiges Konzept zum fernsteuerbaren Transport magnetischer Partikel entwickelt, bei dem Partikelgeschwindigkeiten im Bereich von 100 µm/s unter Verwendung von externen Magnetfeldstärken im Bereich weniger Millitesla erzielt werden können, ohne den magnetischen Zustand des Substrats zu modifizieren. Wie aus den Untersuchungen hervorgeht, können zudem die Stärke des externen Magnetfelds, die Stärke und der Gradient der MFL, das magnetfeldinduzierte magnetische Moment der Partikel sowie die Größe und der künstlich veränderliche Abstand der Partikel zur Substratoberfläche als zentrale Einflussgrößen zur quantitativen Modifikation der Partikelgeschwindigkeit genutzt werden. Abschließend wurde erfolgreich ein numerisches Simulationsmodell entwickelt, das die quantitative Studie der aktiven Durchmischung auf Basis des vorgestellten Partikeltransportkonzepts von theoretischer Seite ermöglicht, um so gezielt die geometrischen Gegebenheiten der mikrofluidischen Kanalstrukturen auf einem LOC-System für spezifische Anwendungen anzupassen.
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La formiga invasora Linepithema humile (Mayr), també coneguda com la formiga argentina, és una espècie present a la península Ibèrica. En aquesta tesi s'ha estudiat com afecta la presència d'aquesta espècie plaga a la comunitat de formigues autòctones y al procés de dispersió de llavors de plantes mediterrànies. L'estudi es va dur a terme en una àrea de sureda i brolla d'estepes i bruc boal situada al nord-est peninsular, prop de la línia de costa mediterrània. Un dels primers y més notables efectes de la invasió a les nostres àrees d'estudi és la dramàtica alteració de la comunitat de formigues, en forma de una reducció de la riquesa específica i de la homogeneïtat d'abundàncies. A més, a les zones envaïdes no hi queda cap espècie de formiga autòctona dispersant de llavors. A causa de la gran abundància d'obreres de la formiga argentina a les zones envaïdes, i del seu elevat ritme d'activitat, aquesta espècie efectua un intens rastreig del sòl, la qual cosa li permet localitzar els recursos en un temps menor que les formigues autòctones de les zones no envaïdes. No obstant, la obertura mandibular de la comunitat de formigues esdevé molt disminuïda a les zones envaïdes a causa de la desaparició de les espècies autòctones, la majoria d'elles de mida més grossa que la formiga argentina, la qual cosa podria limitar la capacitat de manipulació de l'entorn que té la comunitat de formigues a les zones envaïdes, i podria explicar la falta de reemplaçament d'alguns dels rols que duien a terme les espècies de formigues autòctones abans de la invasió. La formiga argentina es mostra atreta per les llavors de les nou espècies vegetals estudiades (dues euforbiàcies: Euphorbia biumbellata i E. characias; dues compostes: Cirsium vulgare i Galactites tomentosa; i cinc papilionàcies: Genista linifolia, G. monspessulana, G. triflora, Sarothamnus arboreus i Ulex parviflorus), arribant a transportar i fins i tot introduir al niu algunes llavors, però amb probabilitats inferiors a les realitzades per les formigues autòctones de les zones no envaïdes. No obstant, el seu comportament davant les nou espècies de llavors és variable, de manera que sembla que el seu efecte sobre la dispersió de llavors podria ser diferent per a cada espècie vegetal. L'alteració del procés de dispersió no sembla alterar l'èxit reproductiu d'una espècie concreta, Euphorbia characias, a les zones envaïdes; ni el seu reclutament, ni la distribució espacial, ni la supervivència de les plàntules són significativament diferents a les zones envaïdes que a les no envaïdes. La desaparició de les espècies de formigues granívores de les zones envaïdes pot afectar la dinàmica de les llavors de plantes no mirmecòcores. Així, les llavors de tres papilionàcies (Calicotome spinosa, Psoralea bituminosa i Spartium junceum) resulten amb un menor nivell de transports (i probablement menor depredació) a les zones envaïdes per la formiga argentina.
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En el marc d'un projecte més ampli sobre la comunitat de peixos de la conca lacustre de Banyoles, s'ha estudiat la distribució espacial de les diferents espècies així com l'ús que aquestes fan de l'hàbitat. El poblament piscícola de l'estany de Banyoles és el resultat d'un llarg historial d'introducció d'espècies exòtiques i extinció de les poblacions autòctones locals. S'ha revisat la seva composició actual detectant un total de 18 espècies (4 autòctones i 14 introduïdes) de les quals només 13 presenten una població estable. L'estudi de l'hàbitat s'ha centrat a l'Estany, l'element principal del sistema lacustre, analitzant per separat la zona litoral i la zona limnètica. En el primer cas s'han realitzat les captures d'individus mitjançant pesca elèctrica des d'una embarcació adaptada per aquesta pràctica. La totalitat del litoral ha estat dividida en trams de característiques homogènies on s'han obtingut les captures per unitat d'esforç per cada espècie. El mostreig s'ha desenvolupat entre l'estiu de 1997 i la primavera del 2000 realitzant un total de 10 campanyes de pesca. Les espècies més abundants al litoral són la perca americana (Micropterus salmoides) i el peix sol (Lepomis gibbosus), essent també presents la perca (Perca fluviatilis), carpa (Cyprinus carpio) i el gardí (Scardinius erythrophthalmus). S'han capturat altres espècies com ara anguila (Anguilla anguilla), bagra (Squalius cephalus), sandra (Sander lucioperca), carpí (Carassius auratus) i madrilleta vera (Rutilus rutilus), però són molt menys abundants en nombre. S'ha examinat, per cadascuna de les espècies, si existeix selecció de l'hàbitat i en cas afirmatiu, quin és el preferent en base a la classificació del litoral en sis tipus de vegetació predominant. Les espècies més abundants, perca americana i peix sol, ocupen tots els hàbitats disponibles però amb una densitat diferent. La perca mostra també una clara selecció de l'hàbitat a favor de les zones molt estructurades amb abundant presència de jonca litoral. Carpa i gardí seleccionen els ambients més fondos amb major presència de matèria orgànica d'origen vegetal procedent del bogar. En general els individus ocupen les zones amb una densitat de vegetació intermèdia, majoritàriament zones de jonca a l'estiu i zones amb mansega a l'hivern, on troben refugi i els recursos tròfics necessaris. La perca americana, a més, presenta una elevada fidelitat a un mateix punt del litoral al llarg de la seva vida. La zona limnètica ha estat prospectada mensualment mitjançant ecosondació, realitzant transectes perpendiculars a l'eix principal de l'Estany, cobrint la seva totalitat. La composició d'espècies s'ha obtingut a partir de les captures fetes amb xarxes (tresmalls) amb periodicitat estacional. L'anàlisi geoestadística de la densitat de peixos ha permès descriure l'estructura espacial d'aquesta a partir dels variogrames, així com la seva variabilitat tant espacial com temporal, i obtenir els mapes de densitat. A l'hivern, la densitat de peixos a la zona limnètica assoleix els seus valors mínims i els individus es troben formant agregats dispersos, pels diferents estrats de fondària. A partir de la primavera la densitat augmenta, pel reclutament i la major freqüència d'individus que abandonen el litoral; la densitat esdevé més homogènia a les primer capes de fondària. A l'estiu la densitat és màxima i l'estrat més homogeni coincideix amb la posició de la termoclina. Aquest estructura varia en disminuir la temperatura i barrejar-se la columna d'aigua, tornant a la situació hivernal. La perca i la madrilleta vera són les espècies predominants en aquest ambient, juntament amb la carpa. La seva distribució no és homogènia i respon a les característiques limnològiques de les diferents cubetes de l'Estany. Una particularitat d'aquest, relacionada amb el seu origen càrstic, es la formació d'una ploma hidrotermal que afecta la distribució dels peixos, probablement en augmentar la terbolesa. S'ha integrat l'ús de l'hàbitat de les espècies que ocupen tant la zona limnètica com la litoral a partir del seguiment d'individus, concretament de perca i bagra. S'ha utilitzat un sistema automàtic de posicionament que estima la localització dels individus marcats amb transmissor de telemetria acústica. L'anàlisi dels desplaçaments mostra un rang superior per la bagra en comparació amb la perca. Ambdues espècies mostren una orientació en els seus desplaçaments. La perca ocupa el litoral a la nit i es desplaça a la zona limnètica de dia, amb un ritme d'activitat marcat per dos màxims coincidint amb la sortida i posta de sol; en canvi la bagra mostra una major activitat nocturna amb zones de repòs properes al litoral. S'ha estimat igualment els dominis vital de cada individu marcat.
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El paisaje, concebido como una unidad espacial y temporalmente pluriescalar caracterizada por unos patrones de distribución - una estructura-, unas funciones y una red de flujos de materia, energía e información (Forman y Godron, 1986), constituye un modelo apropiado para estudiar el territorio (Marull, 2002). En la presente investigación se hace un análisis de los cambios ocurridos en la estructura del mosaico paisajístico de la comarca de l´Alt Empordà entre 1957 y 2001, para ellos se divide la comarca en unidades paisajísticas basadas en criterios fisiográficos determinados a escala 1:25000. El análisis de la estructura paisajística de las diferentes unidades paisajísticas se ha realizado a través de indicadores de composición y de estructura según clases paisajísticas (cubiertas o usos del suelo), mediante el cálculo y análisis de indicadores de estructura desarrollados por la ecología del paisaje, los cuales, han permitido caracterizar y analizar las transformaciones en el tamaño, la forma y el arreglo espacial de los parches tipo que configuran el mosaico paisajístico. Para el proceso de cálculo y análisis espacial se han empleado los sistemas de información geográfica (SIGs), el programa Patch Analyst 1.2. La información cartográfica se elaboró a partir de ortofotomapas digitales y fotos aéreas generados por el ICC, así como de fuentes secundarias. Además, el trabajo incluye una aplicación teórico-metodológica a la identificación de redes ecológicas a través del uso de indicadores, así como el uso de inventarios fitosociológicos en la evaluación de hábitats borde.
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The time-of-detection method for aural avian point counts is a new method of estimating abundance, allowing for uncertain probability of detection. The method has been specifically designed to allow for variation in singing rates of birds. It involves dividing the time interval of the point count into several subintervals and recording the detection history of the subintervals when each bird sings. The method can be viewed as generating data equivalent to closed capture–recapture information. The method is different from the distance and multiple-observer methods in that it is not required that all the birds sing during the point count. As this method is new and there is some concern as to how well individual birds can be followed, we carried out a field test of the method using simulated known populations of singing birds, using a laptop computer to send signals to audio stations distributed around a point. The system mimics actual aural avian point counts, but also allows us to know the size and spatial distribution of the populations we are sampling. Fifty 8-min point counts (broken into four 2-min intervals) using eight species of birds were simulated. Singing rate of an individual bird of a species was simulated following a Markovian process (singing bouts followed by periods of silence), which we felt was more realistic than a truly random process. The main emphasis of our paper is to compare results from species singing at (high and low) homogenous rates per interval with those singing at (high and low) heterogeneous rates. Population size was estimated accurately for the species simulated, with a high homogeneous probability of singing. Populations of simulated species with lower but homogeneous singing probabilities were somewhat underestimated. Populations of species simulated with heterogeneous singing probabilities were substantially underestimated. Underestimation was caused by both the very low detection probabilities of all distant individuals and by individuals with low singing rates also having very low detection probabilities.
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The boreal forest of western Canada is being dissected by seismic lines used for oil and gas exploration. The vast amount of edge being created is leading to concerns that core habitat will be reduced for forest interior species for extended periods of time. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is a boreal songbird known to be sensitive to newly created seismic lines because it does not include newly cut lines within its territory. We examined multiple hypotheses to explain potential mechanisms causing this behavior by mapping Ovenbird territories near lines with varying states of vegetation regeneration. The best model to explain line exclusion behavior included the number of neighboring conspecifics, the amount of bare ground, leaf-litter depth, and canopy closure. Ovenbirds exclude recently cut seismic lines from their territories because of lack of protective cover (lower tree and shrub cover) and because of reduced food resources due to large areas of bare ground. Food reduction and perceived predation risk effects seem to be mitigated once leaf litter (depth and extent of cover) and woody vegetation cover are restored to forest interior levels. However, as conspecific density increases, lines are more likely to be used as landmarks to demarcate territorial boundaries, even when woody vegetation cover and leaf litter are restored. This behavior can reduce territory density near seismic lines by changing the spatial distribution of territories. Landmark effects are longer lasting than the effects from reduced food or perceived predation risk because canopy height and tree density take >40 years to recover to forest interior levels. Mitigation of seismic line impacts on Ovenbirds should focus on restoring forest cover as quickly as possible after line cutting.
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Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.
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Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40
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The global radiation balance of the atmosphere is still poorly observed, particularly at the surface. We investigate the observed radiation balance at (1) the surface using the ARM Mobile Facility in Niamey, Niger, and (2) the top of the atmosphere (TOA) over West Africa using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board Meteosat-8. Observed radiative fluxes are compared with predictions from the global numerical weather prediction (NWP) version of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). The evaluation points to major shortcomings in the NWP model's radiative fluxes during the dry season (December 2005 to April 2006) arising from (1) a lack of absorbing aerosol in the model (mineral dust and biomass burning aerosol) and (2) a poor specification of the surface albedo. A case study of the major Saharan dust outbreak of 6–12 March 2006 is used to evaluate a parameterization of mineral dust for use in the NWP models. The model shows good predictability of the large-scale flow out to 4–5 days with the dust parameterization providing reasonable dust uplift, spatial distribution, and temporal evolution for this strongly forced dust event. The direct radiative impact of the dust reduces net downward shortwave (SW) flux at the surface (TOA) by a maximum of 200 W m−2 (150 W m−2), with a SW heating of the atmospheric column. The impacts of dust on terrestrial radiation are smaller. Comparisons of TOA (surface) radiation balance with GERB (ARM) show the “dusty” forecasts reduce biases in the radiative fluxes and improve surface temperatures and vertical thermodynamic structure.
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Uncertainties in changes to the spatial distribution and magnitude of the heaviest extremes of daily monsoon rainfall over India are assessed in the doubled CO2 climate change scenarios in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Results show diverse changes to the spatial pattern of the 95th and 99th subseasonal percentiles, which are strongly tied to the mean precipitation change during boreal summer. In some models, the projected increase in heaviest rainfall over India at CO2 doubling is entirely predictable based upon the surface warming and the Clausius–Clapeyron relation, a result which may depend upon the choice of convection scheme. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright
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The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.