Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Affine and curvature collineations in space-time

Graham Hall

Avaliação de um método de cromatografia em fase gasosa head space e estudo da estabilidade do etanol em amostras de sangue

The ethanol is the most overused psychoactive drug over the world; this fact makes it one of the main substances required in toxicological exams nowadays. The development of an analytical method, adaptation or implementation of a method known, involves a process of validation that estimates its efficiency in the laboratory routine and credibility of the method. The stability is defined as the ability of the sample of material to keep the initial value of a quantitative measure for a defined period within specific limits when stored under defined conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the method of Gas chromatography and study the stability of ethanol in blood samples, considering the variables time and temperature of storage, and the presence of preservative and, with that check if the conditions of conservation and storage used in this study maintain the quality of the sample and preserve the originally amount of analyte present. Blood samples were collected from 10 volunteers to evaluate the method and to study the stability of ethanol. For the evaluation of the method, part of the samples was added to known concentrations of ethanol. In the study of stability, the other side of the pool of blood was placed in two containers: one containing the preservative sodium fluoride 1% and the anticoagulant heparin and the other only heparin, was added ethanol at a concentration of 0.6 g/L, fractionated in two bottles, one being stored at 4ºC (refrigerator) and another at -20ºC (freezer), the tests were performed on the same day (time zero) and after 1, 3, 7, 14, 30 and 60 days of storage. The assessment found the difference in results during storage in relation to time zero. It used the technique of headspace associated with gas chromatography with the FID and capillary column with stationary phase of polyethylene. The best analysis of chromatographic conditions were: temperature of 50ºC (column), 150ºC (jet) and 250ºC (detector), with retention time for ethanol from 9.107 ± 0.026 and the tercbutanol (internal standard) of 8.170 ± 0.081 minutes, the ethanol being separated properly from acetaldehyde, acetone, methanol and 2-propanol, which are potential interfering in the determination of ethanol. The technique showed linearity in the concentration range of 0.01 and 3.2 g/L (0.8051 x + y = 0.6196; r2 = 0.999). The calibration curve showed the following equation of the line: y = x 0.7542 + 0.6545, with a linear correlation coefficient equal to 0.996. The average recovery was 100.2%, the coefficients of variation of accuracy and inter intra test showed values of up to 7.3%, the limit of detection and quantification was 0.01 g/L and showed coefficient of variation within the allowed. The analytical method evaluated in this study proved to be fast, efficient and practical, given the objective of this work satisfactorily. The study of stability has less than 20% difference in the response obtained under the conditions of storage and stipulated period, compared with the response obtained at time zero and at the significance level of 5%, no statistical difference in the concentration of ethanol was observed between analysis. The results reinforce the reliability of the method of gas chromatography and blood samples in search of ethanol, either in the toxicological, forensic, social or clinic

Alcoolemia em vítimas fatais de acidentes de trânsito no Rio Grande do Norte empregando cromatografia em fase gasosa - head space

Alcohol is one of the few psychotropic drugs that their consumption has admitted legally and sometimes encouraged by the society. Studies show alcohol as the highest consumption of drugs among young people and society in general, probably because of its availability and easy access. The abuse causes public health problems, which was closely related to the violence, socioeconomic problems and the high number of automobile accidents. Transit is one of the main sectors affected by the effects of alcohol, observing a high incidence in the studies. About half of automobile accidents occurs after the consumption of alcoholic beverage, and the vast majority of cases related to high concentrations of alcohol in the bloodstream. The relationship of drunk with traffic accidents is in fact evident everywhere in the world, including Brazil, where studies have shown a high relationship between alcohol consumption and traffic accidents. This study determined the alcohol in fatal victims of traffic accidents in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and established the profile of this population compared with those found in Brazil and other countries. Samples of blood of ethanol added to fulfillment of the standardization of chromatographic conditions and procedures for the analysis, being employed in the determination of alcohol in blood samples of 277 victims of traffic accidents, collected at the Institute of Scientific Technical Police of Rio Grande do North (ITEP) in the year 2007. The blood alcohol level was determined in these samples correlated with the sex, age and marital status of the victim and the location, day of week and month when the accident occurred, is doing a statistical analysis and outlining a profile of the victims of an accident at transit in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The parameters of standardization studied ensured the quality of the analytical method and, consequently, to obtain reliable laboratory results. Being given the best temperature for injector (150 ºC), detector (250 ºC) and column (50 ºC) with a flow of gas in the column of 2mL/minutos and analysis of time of 12 minutes. The method was linear in the range of 0.01 to 3.2 g / L (r2 = 0.9989) with average recovery of 100.2% and precision with coefficient of variation less than 15%. The analysis carried out on victims of fatal road traffic accidents, ethanol detected in the blood in 66.43% of the victims and these, 96% showed concentration ≥ 0.2 g / L, 87.73% of victims were male, while 12.27% female. The younger age group (1535 years) was the most involved (52,35%) and most single (55.60%). The accidents occurred with greater prevalence in the day on Monday (27%) followed by Sunday (24,19%) and Saturday (15,52%) and it was found that the prevalence of injuries varied between the different months of the year, and in February (14.4%) and April (10.47%) the months that had a higher number of accidents, however this oscillation showed no statistically significant difference. Also no significant difference was observed between the tracks of concentration found in men and women. The standardized method showed to be efficient, given satisfactorily to the goals of this work, and the high levels of alcohol found in victims of fatal road traffic accidents are consistent with several studies of literature, and the profile of the victim also supported by presenting in its most young adults, male and single

Space dependency of chemical attributes in an area with sugarcane plantation in Pereira Barreto, SP

The behavior of the chemical attributes is directly influenced by superficial flow and water movement inside the soil. This work aimed to study the space dependency of chemical attributes in an area with sugarcane plantation in Pereira Barreto, SP. An area of 530.67 hectares was mapped using an equipment of Global Positioning System and obtaining a Digital Elevation Model. A set of 134 soil samples were collected every seven hectares in the depths of 0-0.25 m and 0.80-1.00 m. The pH, organic matter (OM), Ca, Mg, K, BS, CEC and base saturation (BS) were analyzed. All the chemical attributes presented similar behavior in the superficial and subsuperficial layer of the soil, which provided better visualization and definition of the homogeneous tillage zones.

Object-Space Road Extraction in Rural Areas Using Stereoscopic Aerial Images

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Three-Dimensional Semiautomatic Road Extraction From a High-Resolution Aerial Image by Dynamic-Programming Optimization in the Object Space

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Rotação diferencial em estrelas do tipo solar

Stellar differential rotation is an important key to understand hydromagnetic stellar dynamos, instabilities, and transport processes in stellar interiors as well as for a better treatment of tides in close binary and star-planet systems. The space-borne high-precision photometry with MOST, CoRoT, and Kepler has provided large and homogeneous datasets. This allows, for the first time, the study of differential rotation statistically robust samples covering almost all stages of stellar evolution. In this sense, we introduce a method to measure a lower limit to the amplitude of surface differential rotation from high-precision evenly sampled photometric time series such as those obtained by space-borne telescopes. It is designed for application to main-sequence late-type stars whose optical flux modulation is dominated by starspots. An autocorrelation of the time series is used to select stars that allow an accurate determination of spot rotation periods. A simple two-spot model is applied together with a Bayesian Information Criterion to preliminarily select intervals of the time series showing evidence of differential rotation with starspots of almost constant area. Finally, the significance of the differential rotation detection and a measurement of its amplitude and uncertainty are obtained by an a posteriori Bayesian analysis based on a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (hereafter MCMC) approach. We apply our method to the Sun and eight other stars for which previous spot modelling has been performed to compare our results with previous ones. The selected stars are of spectral type F, G and K. Among the main results of this work, We find that autocorrelation is a simple method for selecting stars with a coherent rotational signal that is a prerequisite to a successful measurement of differential rotation through spot modelling. For a proper MCMC analysis, it is necessary to take into account the strong correlations among different parameters that exists in spot modelling. For the planethosting star Kepler-30, we derive a lower limit to the relative amplitude of the differential rotation. We confirm that the Sun as a star in the optical passband is not suitable for a measurement of the differential rotation owing to the rapid evolution of its photospheric active regions. In general, our method performs well in comparison with more sophisticated procedures used until now in the study of stellar differential rotation

Confinement of spinless particles by Coulomb potentials in two-dimensional space-time

The problem of confinement of spinless particles in 1 + 1 dimensions is approached with a linear potential by considering a mixing of Lorentz vector and scalar couplings. Analytical bound-states solutions are obtained when the scalar coupling is of sufficient intensity compared to the vector coupling. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Confinement of fermions by mixed vector-scalar linear potentials in two-dimensional space-time

The problem of confinement of fermions in 1 + 1 dimensions is approached with a linear potential in the Dirac equation by considering a mixing of Lorentz vector and scalar couplings. Analytical bound-states solutions are obtained when the scalar coupling is of sufficient intensity compared to the vector coupling. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Schwarzschild generalized black hole horizon and the embedding space

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evasive Maneuvers in Space Debris Environment and Technological Parameters

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A new method for real time computation of power quality indices based on instantaneous space phasors

One of the important issues about using renewable energy is the integration of dispersed generation in the distribution networks. Previous experience has shown that the integration of dispersed generation can improve voltage profile in the network, decrease loss, etc. but can create safety and technical problems as well. This work report the application of the instantaneous space phasors and the instantaneous complex power in observing performances of the distribution networks with dispersed generators in steady state. New IEEE apparent power definition, the so-called Buchholz-Goodhue effective apparent power, as well as new proposed power quality (oscillation) index in the three-phase distribution systems with unbalanced loads and dispersed generators, are applied. Results obtained from several case studies using IEEE 34 nodes test network are presented and discussed. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arithmetic fuchsian groups and space time block codes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)