Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Reversed phase HPLC determination of zidovudine in rat plasma and its pharmacokinetics after a single intranasal dose administration

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Single real transformation matrices applied to double three-phase transmission lines

Single real transformation matrices are tested as phase-mode transformation matrices of typical symmetrical systems with double three-phase and two parallel double three-phase transmission lines. These single real transformation matrices are achieved from eigenvector matrices of the mentioned systems and they are based on Clarke's matrix. Using linear combinations of the Clarke's matrix elements, the techniques applied to the single three-phase lines are extended to systems with 6 or 12 phase conductors. For transposed double three-phase lines, phase Z and Y matrices are changed into diagonal matrices in mode domain. Considering non-transposed cases of double three-phase lines, the results are not exact and the error analyses are performed using the exact eigenvalues. In case of two parallel double three-phase lines, the exact single real transformation matrix has not been obtained yet. Searching for this exact matrix, the analyses are based on a single homopolar reference. For all analyses in this paper, the homopolar mode is used as the only homopolar reference for all phase conductors of the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Administration of single-dose GnRH agonist in the luteal phase in ICSI cycles: a meta-analysis

Background: The effects of gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRH-a) administered in the luteal phase remains controversial. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the effect of the administration of a single-dose of GnRH-a in the luteal phase on ICSI clinical outcomes.Methods: The research strategy included the online search of databases. Only randomized studies were included. The outcomes analyzed were implantation rate, clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) per transfer and ongoing pregnancy rate. The fixed effects model was used for odds ratio. In all trials, a single dose of GnRH-a was administered at day 5/6 after ICSI procedures.Results: All cycles presented statistically significantly higher rates of implantation (P < 0.0001), CPR per transfer (P = 0.006) and ongoing pregnancy (P = 0.02) in the group that received luteal-phase GnRH-a administration than in the control group (without luteal-phase-GnRH-a administration). When meta-analysis was carried out only in trials that had used long GnRH-a ovarian stimulation protocol, CPR per transfer (P = 0.06) and ongoing pregnancy (P = 0.23) rates were not significantly different between the groups, but implantation rate was significant higher (P = 0.02) in the group that received luteal-phase-GnRH-a administration. on the other hand, the results from trials that had used GnRH antagonist multi-dose ovarian stimulation protocol showed statistically significantly higher implantation (P = 0.0002), CPR per transfer (P = 0.04) and ongoing pregnancy rate (P = 0.04) in the luteal-phaseGnRH- a administration group. The majority of the results presented heterogeneity.Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that the luteal-phase single-dose GnRH-a administration can increase implantation rate in all cycles and CPR per transfer and ongoing pregnancy rate in cycles with GnRH antagonist ovarian stimulation protocol. Nevertheless, by considering the heterogeneity between the trials, it seems premature to recommend the use of GnRH-a in the luteal phase. Additional randomized controlled trials are necessary before evidence-based recommendations can be provided.

Non-transposed three-phase line analyses with a single real transformation matrix

In transmission line transient analyses, a single real transformation matrix can obtain exact modes when the analyzed line is transposed. For non-transposed lines, the results are not exact. In this paper, non-symmetrical and non transposed three-phase line samples are analyzed with a single real transformation matrix application (Clarke's matrix). Some interesting characteristics of this matrix application are: single, real, frequency independent, line parameter independent, identical for voltage and current determination. With Clarke's matrix use, mathematical simplifications are obtained and the developed model can be applied directly in programs based on time domain. This model works without convolution procedures to deal with phase-mode transformation. In EMTP programs, Clarke's matrix can be represented by ideal transformers and the frequency dependent line parameters can be represented by modified-circuits. With these representations, the electrical values at any line point can be accessed for phase domain or mode domain using the Clarke matrix or its inverse matrix. For symmetrical and non-transposed lines, the model originates quite small errors. In addition, the application of the proposed model to the non-symmetrical and non-transposed three phase transmission lines is investigated. ©2005 IEEE.

Correction procedure applied to a single real transformation matrix -Untransposed three-phase transmission line cases

Clarke's matrix has been used as an eigenvector matrix for transposed three-phase transmission lines and it can be applied as a phase-mode transformation matrix for transposed cases. Considering untransposed three-phase transmission lines, Clarke's matrix is not an exact eigenvector matrix. In this case, the errors related to the diagonal elements of the Z and Y matrices can be considered negligible, if these diagonal elements are compared to the exact elements in domain mode. The mentioned comparisons are performed based on the error and frequency scan analyses. From these analyses and considering untransposed asymmetrical three-phase transmission lines, a correction procedure is determined searching for better results from the Clarke's matrix use as a phase-mode transformation matrix. Using the Clarke's matrix, the relative errors of the eigenvalue matrix elements can be considered negligible and the relative values of the off-diagonal elements are significant. Applying the corrected transformation matrices, the relative values of the off-diagonal elements are decreased. The comparisons among the results of these analyses show that the homopolar mode is more sensitive to the frequency influence than the two other modes related to three-phase lines. © 2006 IEEE.

Analysis of electric torque in single machine-infinite bus system using phase shifters

ResumoThe main idea of this work is based on the analysis of the electric torque through the acting of the PS in the power system, provided of a control for the compensation degree (PSC). A linear model of the single machine-infinite bus system is used with a PS installed (SMIB/PS system). The variable that represents the presence of PS in the net is associated to the phase displacement introduced in the terminal voltage of the synchronous machine by PS. For the input signals of the PSC are evaluated variations of the angular speed of the rotor, the current magnitude and the active power through the line where the PS is located. The simulations are accomplished to analyze the influence of the PS in the torque formation (synchronizing and damping), of the SMIB/PS system. The analysis are developed in the time and frequency domain.

Single precursor route to efficient cobalt sulphide counter electrodes for dye sensitized solar cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of Long-Term Outcomes, Cytogenetic and Molecular Responses with Imatinib Mesylate in Early and Late Chronic-Phase Chronic Myeloid Leukemia: A Report from a Single Institute

Here we compare the management and survival outcomes of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients who had early or late imatinib mesylate (IM) therapy. The cytogenetic and molecular responses of 189 CML patients were analyzed. Of this group, 121 patients were classified as the early chronic phase (ECP) group and started IM within 12 months of diagnosis. The other 68 patients were classified as the late chronic phase (LCP) group who had been treated with interferon (IFN)-alpha-2 and crossed over to IM more than 12 months after diagnosis. The overall rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at last follow-up were 83.6 and 78.1% in the ECP and LCP groups, respectively. The CCyR rates were 89.3 (for ECP patients) versus 73.5% (for LCP patients; p < 0.0001). At last follow-up, 82.4% ECP and 64.2% LCP patients had achieved an MMR (p < 0.0001). No significant differences were noted between the two groups with regard to survival outcomes. Our experience reveals that IM is an effective rescue therapy in most CML LCP patients who are intolerant or in whom IFN-alpha therapy fails. Such therapeutic options should be considered in LCP patients, particularly in countries where IM may not be available. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Modulation Techniques for Multi-Phase Converters and Control Strategies for Multi-Phase Electric Drives

The ever-increasing spread of automation in industry puts the electrical engineer in a central role as a promoter of technological development in a sector such as the use of electricity, which is the basis of all the machinery and productive processes. Moreover the spread of drives for motor control and static converters with structures ever more complex, places the electrical engineer to face new challenges whose solution has as critical elements in the implementation of digital control techniques with the requirements of inexpensiveness and efficiency of the final product. The successfully application of solutions using non-conventional static converters awake an increasing interest in science and industry due to the promising opportunities. However, in the same time, new problems emerge whose solution is still under study and debate in the scientific community During the Ph.D. course several themes have been developed that, while obtaining the recent and growing interest of scientific community, have much space for the development of research activity and for industrial applications. The first area of research is related to the control of three phase induction motors with high dynamic performance and the sensorless control in the high speed range. The management of the operation of induction machine without position or speed sensors awakes interest in the industrial world due to the increased reliability and robustness of this solution combined with a lower cost of production and purchase of this technology compared to the others available in the market. During this dissertation control techniques will be proposed which are able to exploit the total dc link voltage and at the same time capable to exploit the maximum torque capability in whole speed range with good dynamic performance. The proposed solution preserves the simplicity of tuning of the regulators. Furthermore, in order to validate the effectiveness of presented solution, it is assessed in terms of performance and complexity and compared to two other algorithm presented in literature. The feasibility of the proposed algorithm is also tested on induction motor drive fed by a matrix converter. Another important research area is connected to the development of technology for vehicular applications. In this field the dynamic performances and the low power consumption is one of most important goals for an effective algorithm. Towards this direction, a control scheme for induction motor that integrates within a coherent solution some of the features that are commonly required to an electric vehicle drive is presented. The main features of the proposed control scheme are the capability to exploit the maximum torque in the whole speed range, a weak dependence on the motor parameters, a good robustness against the variations of the dc-link voltage and, whenever possible, the maximum efficiency. The second part of this dissertation is dedicated to the multi-phase systems. This technology, in fact, is characterized by a number of issues worthy of investigation that make it competitive with other technologies already on the market. Multiphase systems, allow to redistribute power at a higher number of phases, thus making possible the construction of electronic converters which otherwise would be very difficult to achieve due to the limits of present power electronics. Multiphase drives have an intrinsic reliability given by the possibility that a fault of a phase, caused by the possible failure of a component of the converter, can be solved without inefficiency of the machine or application of a pulsating torque. The control of the magnetic field spatial harmonics in the air-gap with order higher than one allows to reduce torque noise and to obtain high torque density motor and multi-motor applications. In one of the next chapters a control scheme able to increase the motor torque by adding a third harmonic component to the air-gap magnetic field will be presented. Above the base speed the control system reduces the motor flux in such a way to ensure the maximum torque capability. The presented analysis considers the drive constrains and shows how these limits modify the motor performance. The multi-motor applications are described by a well-defined number of multiphase machines, having series connected stator windings, with an opportune permutation of the phases these machines can be independently controlled with a single multi-phase inverter. In this dissertation this solution will be presented and an electric drive consisting of two five-phase PM tubular actuators fed by a single five-phase inverter will be presented. Finally the modulation strategies for a multi-phase inverter will be illustrated. The problem of the space vector modulation of multiphase inverters with an odd number of phases is solved in different way. An algorithmic approach and a look-up table solution will be proposed. The inverter output voltage capability will be investigated, showing that the proposed modulation strategy is able to fully exploit the dc input voltage either in sinusoidal or non-sinusoidal operating conditions. All this aspects are considered in the next chapters. In particular, Chapter 1 summarizes the mathematical model of induction motor. The Chapter 2 is a brief state of art on three-phase inverter. Chapter 3 proposes a stator flux vector control for a three- phase induction machine and compares this solution with two other algorithms presented in literature. Furthermore, in the same chapter, a complete electric drive based on matrix converter is presented. In Chapter 4 a control strategy suitable for electric vehicles is illustrated. Chapter 5 describes the mathematical model of multi-phase induction machines whereas chapter 6 analyzes the multi-phase inverter and its modulation strategies. Chapter 7 discusses the minimization of the power losses in IGBT multi-phase inverters with carrier-based pulse width modulation. In Chapter 8 an extended stator flux vector control for a seven-phase induction motor is presented. Chapter 9 concerns the high torque density applications and in Chapter 10 different fault tolerant control strategies are analyzed. Finally, the last chapter presents a positioning multi-motor drive consisting of two PM tubular five-phase actuators fed by a single five-phase inverter.