Reliability Estimation of Open Source Software based Computational Systems

Software systems are progressively being deployed in many facets of human life. The implication of the failure of such systems, has an assorted impact on its customers. The fundamental aspect that supports a software system, is focus on quality. Reliability describes the ability of the system to function under specified environment for a specified period of time and is used to objectively measure the quality. Evaluation of reliability of a computing system involves computation of hardware and software reliability. Most of the earlier works were given focus on software reliability with no consideration for hardware parts or vice versa. However, a complete estimation of reliability of a computing system requires these two elements to be considered together, and thus demands a combined approach. The present work focuses on this and presents a model for evaluating the reliability of a computing system. The method involves identifying the failure data for hardware components, software components and building a model based on it, to predict the reliability. To develop such a model, focus is given to the systems based on Open Source Software, since there is an increasing trend towards its use and only a few studies were reported on the modeling and measurement of the reliability of such products. The present work includes a thorough study on the role of Free and Open Source Software, evaluation of reliability growth models, and is trying to present an integrated model for the prediction of reliability of a computational system. The developed model has been compared with existing models and its usefulness of is being discussed.

Estimation of the ground state correlation energy for isoelectronic series of 2 to 20 electrons

Correlation energies for all isoelectronic sequences of 2 to 20 electrons and Z = 2 to 25 are obtained by taking differences between theoretical total energies of Dirac-Fock calculations and experimental total energies. These are pure relativistic correlation energies because relativistic and QED effects are already taken care of. The theoretical as well as the experimental values are analysed critically in order to get values as accurate as possible. The correlation energies obtained show an essentially consistent behaviour from Z = 2 to 17. For Z > 17 inconsistencies occur indicating errors in the experimental values which become very large for Z > 25.

3D Simultaneous Inversion for Seismic Structure and Local Hypocenters in Germany under Consideration of Seismic Anisotropy in the Upper Mantel

The main task of this work has been to investigate the effects of anisotropy onto the propagation of seismic waves along the Upper Mantle below Germany and adjacent areas. Refraction- and reflexion seismic experiments proved the existence of Upper Mantle anisotropy and its influence onto the propagation of Pn-waves. By the 3D tomographic investigations that have been done here for the crust and the upper mantle, considering the influence of anisotropy, a gap for the investigations in Europe has been closed. These investigations have been done with the SSH-Inversionprogram of Prof. Dr. M. Koch, which is able to compute simultaneously the seismic structure and hypocenters. For the investigation, a dataset has been available with recordings between the years 1975 to 2003 with a total of 60249 P- and 54212 S-phase records of 10028 seismic events. At the beginning, a precise analysis of the residuals (RES, the difference between calculated and observed arrivaltime) has been done which confirmed the existence of anisotropy for Pn-phases. The recognized sinusoidal distribution has been compensated by an extension of the SSH-program by an ellipse with a slow and rectangular fast axis with azimuth to correct the Pn-velocities. The azimuth of the fast axis has been fixed by the application of the simultaneous inversion at 25° - 27° with a variation of the velocities at +- 2.5 about an average value at 8 km/s. This new value differs from the old one at 35°, recognized in the initial residual analysis. This depends on the new computed hypocenters together with the structure. The application of the elliptical correction has resulted in a better fit of the vertical layered 1D-Model, compared to the results of preceding seismological experiments and 1D and 2D investigations. The optimal result of the 1D-inversion has been used as initial starting model for the 3D-inversions to compute the three dimensional picture of the seismic structure of the Crust and Upper Mantle. The simultaneous inversion has showed an optimization of the relocalization of the hypocenters and the reconstruction of the seismic structure in comparison to the geology and tectonic, as described by other investigations. The investigations for the seismic structure and the relocalization have been confirmed by several different tests. First, synthetic traveltime data are computed with an anisotropic variation and inverted with and without anisotropic correction. Further, tests with randomly disturbed hypocenters and traveltime data have been proceeded to verify the influence of the initial values onto the relocalization accuracy and onto the seismic structure and to test for a further improvement by the application of the anisotropic correction. Finally, the results of the work have been applied onto the Waldkirch earthquake in 2004 to compare the isotropic and the anisotropic relocalization with the initial optimal one to verify whether there is some improvement.

Agricultural Production and Yield Estimation: Two distinctive aspects of Brazilian Agriculture and a perspective on world food problems

Brazil has been increasing its importance in agricultural markets. The reasons are well known to be the relative abundance of land, the increasing technology used in crops, and the development of the agribusiness sector which allow for a fast response to price stimuli. The elasticity of acreage response to increases in expected return is estimated for Soybeans in a dynamic (long term) error correction model. Regarding yield patterns, a large variation in the yearly rates of growth in yield is observed, climate being probably the main source of this variation which result in ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years. In South America, special attention should be given to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, both said to have important effects on rainfalls patterns and consequently in yield. The influence on El Niño and La Niña in historical data is examined and some ways of estimating the impact of climate on yield of Soybean and Corn markets are proposed. Possible implications of climate change may apply.

Simultaneous Drying and Separation of Composite Agricultural Material for Hay Processing

In composite agricultural materials such as grass, tee, medicinal plants; leaves and stems have a different drying time. By this behavior, after leaving the dryer, the stems may have greater moisture content than desired, while the leaves one minor, which can cause either the appearance of fungi or the collapse of the over-dried material. Taking into account that a lot of grass is dehydrated in forced air dryers, especially rotary drum dryers, this research was developed in order to establish conditions enabling to make a separation of the components during the drying process in order to provide a homogeneous product at the end. For this, a rotary dryer consisting of three concentric cylinders and a circular sieve aligned with the more internal cylinder was proposed; so that, once material enters into the dryer in the area of the inner cylinder, stems pass through sieve to the middle and then continue towards the external cylinder, while the leaves continue by the inner cylinder. For this project, a mixture of Ryegrass and White Clover was used. The characteristics of the components of a mixture were: Drying Rate in thin layer and in rotation, Bulk density, Projected Area, Terminal velocity, weight/Area Ratio, Flux through Rotary sieve. Three drying temperatures; 40°C, 60° C and 80° C, and three rotation speeds; 10 rpm, 20 rpm and 40 rpm were evaluated. It was found that the differences in drying time are the less at 80 °C when the dryer rotates at 40 rpm. Above this speed, the material adheres to the walls of the dryer or sieve and does not flow. According to the measurements of terminal velocity of stems and leaves of the components of the mixture, the speed of the air should be less than 1.5 m s-1 in the inner drum for the leaves and less than 4.5 m s-1 in middle and outer drums for stems, in such way that only the rotational movement of the dryer moves the material and achieves a greater residence time. In other hand, the best rotary sieve separation efficiencies were achieved when the material is dry, but the results are good in all the moisture contents. The best rotary speed of sieve is within the critical rotational speed, i.e. 20 rpm. However, the rotational speed of the dryer, including the sieve in line with the inner cylinder should be 10 rpm or less in order to achieve the greatest residence times of the material inside the dryer and the best agitation through the use of lifting flights. With a finite element analysis of a dryer prototype, using an air flow allowing speeds of air already stated, I was found that the best performance occurs when, through a cover, air enters the dryer front of the Middle cylinder and when the inner cylinder is formed in its entirety through a sieve. This way, air flows in almost equal amounts by both the middle and external cylinders, while part of the air in the Middle cylinder passes through the sieve towards the inner cylinder. With this, leaves do not adhere to the sieve and flow along drier, thanks to the rotating movement of the drums and the showering caused by the lifting flights. In these conditions, the differences in drying time are reduced to 60 minutes, but the residence time is higher for the stems than for leaves, therefore the components of the mixture of grass run out of the dryer with the same desired moisture content.

Optimierung von Betriebsstrategien für elektrifizierte Antriebskonzepte

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie und des Verhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors vorgestellt. Die Übernahme von den im Steuergerät verwendeten Funktionsmodulen in die Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik stellt eine effiziente Applikationsmöglichkeit der Originalparametrierung dar. Gleichzeitig ist es notwendig, das Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors derart nachzubilden, dass das stationäre und das dynamische Verhalten, inklusive aller relevanten Einflussmöglichkeiten, wiedergegeben werden kann. Das entwickelte Werkzeug zur Übertragung der in Ascet definierten Steurgerätefunktionen in die Simulink-Simulationsumgebung ermöglicht nicht nur die Simulation der relevanten Funktionsmodule, sondern es erfüllt auch weitere wichtige Eigenschaften. Eine erhöhte Flexibilität bezüglich der Daten- und Funktionsstandänderungen, sowie die Parametrierbarkeit der Funktionsmodule sind Verbesserungen die an dieser Stelle zu nennen sind. Bei der Modellierung des stationären Systemverhaltens des Verbrennungsmotors erfolgt der Einsatz von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen. Die Auswahl der optimalen Neuronenanzahl erfolgt durch die Betrachtung des SSE für die Trainings- und die Verifikationsdaten. Falls notwendig, wird zur Sicherstellung der angestrebten Modellqualität, das Interpolationsverhalten durch Hinzunahme von Gauß-Prozess-Modellen verbessert. Mit den Gauß-Prozess-Modellen werden hierbei zusätzliche Stützpunkte erzeugt und mit einer verminderten Priorität in die Modellierung eingebunden. Für die Modellierung des dynamischen Systemverhaltens werden lineare Übertragungsfunktionen verwendet. Bei der Minimierung der Abweichung zwischen dem Modellausgang und den Messergebnissen wird zusätzlich zum SSE das 2σ-Intervall der relativen Fehlerverteilung betrachtet. Die Implementierung der Steuergerätefunktionsmodule und der erstellten Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in der Simulationsumgebung für Fahrzeuglängsdynamik führt zum Anstieg der Simulationszeit und einer Vergrößerung des Parameterraums. Das aus Regelungstechnik bekannte Verfahren der Gütevektoroptimierung trägt entscheidend zu einer systematischen Betrachtung und Optimierung der Zielgrößen bei. Das Ergebnis des Verfahrens ist durch das Optimum der Paretofront der einzelnen Entwurfsspezifikationen gekennzeichnet. Die steigenden Simulationszeiten benachteiligen Minimumsuchverfahren, die eine Vielzahl an Iterationen benötigen. Um die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariablen, die maßgeblich zur Steigerung der Iterationanzahl beiträgt, zu vermeiden und gleichzeitig eine Globalisierung der Suche im Parameterraum zu ermöglichen wird die entwickelte Methode DelaunaySearch eingesetzt. Im Gegensatz zu den bekannten Algorithmen, wie die Partikelschwarmoptimierung oder die evolutionären Algorithmen, setzt die neu entwickelte Methode bei der Suche nach dem Minimum einer Kostenfunktion auf eine systematische Analyse der durchgeführten Simulationsergebnisse. Mit Hilfe der bei der Analyse gewonnenen Informationen werden Bereiche mit den bestmöglichen Voraussetzungen für ein Minimum identifiziert. Somit verzichtet das iterative Verfahren bei der Bestimmung des nächsten Iterationsschrittes auf die Verwendung einer Zufallsvariable. Als Ergebnis der Berechnungen steht ein gut gewählter Startwert für eine lokale Optimierung zur Verfügung. Aufbauend auf der Simulation der Fahrzeuglängsdynamik, der Steuergerätefunktionen und der Steller-Sensor-Streckenmodelle in einer Simulationsumgebung wird die Hybrid-Betriebsstrategie gemeinsam mit der Steuerung des Verbrennungsmotors optimiert. Mit der Entwicklung und Implementierung einer neuen Funktion wird weiterhin die Verbindung zwischen der Betriebsstrategie und der Motorsteuerung erweitert. Die vorgestellten Werkzeuge ermöglichten hierbei nicht nur einen Test der neuen Funktionalitäten, sondern auch eine Abschätzung der Verbesserungspotentiale beim Verbrauch und Abgasemissionen. Insgesamt konnte eine effiziente Testumgebung für eine gemeinsame Optimierung der Betriebsstrategie und des Verbrennungsmotorverhaltens eines Hybridfahrzeugs realisiert werden.

Three-Dimensional Motion Estimation Using Shading Information in Multiple Frames

A new formulation for recovering the structure and motion parameters of a moving patch using both motion and shading information is presented. It is based on a new differential constraint equation (FICE) that links the spatiotemporal gradients of irradiance to the motion and structure parameters and the temporal variations of the surface shading. The FICE separates the contribution to the irradiance spatiotemporal gradients of the gradients due to texture from those due to shading and allows the FICE to be used for textured and textureless surface. The new approach, combining motion and shading information, leads directly to two different contributions: it can compensate for the effects of shading variations in recovering the shape and motion; and it can exploit the shading/illumination effects to recover motion and shape when they cannot be recovered without it. The FICE formulation is also extended to multiple frames.

Parameter Estimation in Chaotic Systems

This report examines how to estimate the parameters of a chaotic system given noisy observations of the state behavior of the system. Investigating parameter estimation for chaotic systems is interesting because of possible applications for high-precision measurement and for use in other signal processing, communication, and control applications involving chaotic systems. In this report, we examine theoretical issues regarding parameter estimation in chaotic systems and develop an efficient algorithm to perform parameter estimation. We discover two properties that are helpful for performing parameter estimation on non-structurally stable systems. First, it turns out that most data in a time series of state observations contribute very little information about the underlying parameters of a system, while a few sections of data may be extraordinarily sensitive to parameter changes. Second, for one-parameter families of systems, we demonstrate that there is often a preferred direction in parameter space governing how easily trajectories of one system can "shadow'" trajectories of nearby systems. This asymmetry of shadowing behavior in parameter space is proved for certain families of maps of the interval. Numerical evidence indicates that similar results may be true for a wide variety of other systems. Using the two properties cited above, we devise an algorithm for performing parameter estimation. Standard parameter estimation techniques such as the extended Kalman filter perform poorly on chaotic systems because of divergence problems. The proposed algorithm achieves accuracies several orders of magnitude better than the Kalman filter and has good convergence properties for large data sets.

Modeling, Estimation, and Control of Robot-Soil Interactions

This thesis presents the development of hardware, theory, and experimental methods to enable a robotic manipulator arm to interact with soils and estimate soil properties from interaction forces. Unlike the majority of robotic systems interacting with soil, our objective is parameter estimation, not excavation. To this end, we design our manipulator with a flat plate for easy modeling of interactions. By using a flat plate, we take advantage of the wealth of research on the similar problem of earth pressure on retaining walls. There are a number of existing earth pressure models. These models typically provide estimates of force which are in uncertain relation to the true force. A recent technique, known as numerical limit analysis, provides upper and lower bounds on the true force. Predictions from the numerical limit analysis technique are shown to be in good agreement with other accepted models. Experimental methods for plate insertion, soil-tool interface friction estimation, and control of applied forces on the soil are presented. In addition, a novel graphical technique for inverting the soil models is developed, which is an improvement over standard nonlinear optimization. This graphical technique utilizes the uncertainties associated with each set of force measurements to obtain all possible parameters which could have produced the measured forces. The system is tested on three cohesionless soils, two in a loose state and one in a loose and dense state. The results are compared with friction angles obtained from direct shear tests. The results highlight a number of key points. Common assumptions are made in soil modeling. Most notably, the Mohr-Coulomb failure law and perfectly plastic behavior. In the direct shear tests, a marked dependence of friction angle on the normal stress at low stresses is found. This has ramifications for any study of friction done at low stresses. In addition, gradual failures are often observed for vertical tools and tools inclined away from the direction of motion. After accounting for the change in friction angle at low stresses, the results show good agreement with the direct shear values.

Achieving Real-Time Mode Estimation through Offline Compilation

As exploration of our solar system and outerspace move into the future, spacecraft are being developed to venture on increasingly challenging missions with bold objectives. The spacecraft tasked with completing these missions are becoming progressively more complex. This increases the potential for mission failure due to hardware malfunctions and unexpected spacecraft behavior. A solution to this problem lies in the development of an advanced fault management system. Fault management enables spacecraft to respond to failures and take repair actions so that it may continue its mission. The two main approaches developed for spacecraft fault management have been rule-based and model-based systems. Rules map sensor information to system behaviors, thus achieving fast response times, and making the actions of the fault management system explicit. These rules are developed by having a human reason through the interactions between spacecraft components. This process is limited by the number of interactions a human can reason about correctly. In the model-based approach, the human provides component models, and the fault management system reasons automatically about system wide interactions and complex fault combinations. This approach improves correctness, and makes explicit the underlying system models, whereas these are implicit in the rule-based approach. We propose a fault detection engine, Compiled Mode Estimation (CME) that unifies the strengths of the rule-based and model-based approaches. CME uses a compiled model to determine spacecraft behavior more accurately. Reasoning related to fault detection is compiled in an off-line process into a set of concurrent, localized diagnostic rules. These are then combined on-line along with sensor information to reconstruct the diagnosis of the system. These rules enable a human to inspect the diagnostic consequences of CME. Additionally, CME is capable of reasoning through component interactions automatically and still provide fast and correct responses. The implementation of this engine has been tested against the NEAR spacecraft advanced rule-based system, resulting in detection of failures beyond that of the rules. This evolution in fault detection will enable future missions to explore the furthest reaches of the solar system without the burden of human intervention to repair failed components.

Multivariate Density Estimation: An SVM Approach

We formulate density estimation as an inverse operator problem. We then use convergence results of empirical distribution functions to true distribution functions to develop an algorithm for multivariate density estimation. The algorithm is based upon a Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach to solving inverse operator problems. The algorithm is implemented and tested on simulated data from different distributions and different dimensionalities, gaussians and laplacians in $R^2$ and $R^{12}$. A comparison in performance is made with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our algorithm does as well or better than the GMMs for the simulations tested and has the added advantage of being automated with respect to parameters.

Learning-Based Approach to Estimation of Morphable Model Parameters

We describe the key role played by partial evaluation in the Supercomputing Toolkit, a parallel computing system for scientific applications that effectively exploits the vast amount of parallelism exposed by partial evaluation. The Supercomputing Toolkit parallel processor and its associated partial evaluation-based compiler have been used extensively by scientists at MIT, and have made possible recent results in astrophysics showing that the motion of the planets in our solar system is chaotically unstable.