The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.

GCM-data intercomparison: the good news and the bad

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): General circulation models (GCMs) are probably the most sophisticated theoretical tools we have to simulate possible climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. ... As will be illustrated here using a variety of examples, although the models do simulate "reality" very well on the "grand" scale (e.g., global, hemispheric, zonal), substantial differences are more apparent as the scale is reduced to areas particularly relevant to regional planners. It is particularly important that workers more clearly recognize the potential dangers in relying too heavily on simple summary statistics such as averages estimated over large regional scales. Many shortcomings are apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.

Validation of a semi-Lagrangian, canonical regression model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A local climate model (LCM) has been developed to simulate the modern and 18 ka climate of the southwestern United States. ... LCM solutions indicate summers were about 1°C cooler and winters 11°C cooler at 18 ka. Annual PREC increased 68% at 18 ka, with large increases in spring and fall PREC and diminished summer monsoonal PREC. ... Validation of simulations of 18 ka climate indicate general agreement with proxy estimates of climate for that time. However, the LCM estimates of summer temperatures are about 5 to 10°C higher than estimates from proxy reconstructions.

The Los Alamos General Circulation Model hydrologic cycle

As the global population has increased, so have human influences on the global environment. ... How can we better understand and predict these natural and potential anthropogenic variations? One way is to develop a model that can accurately describe all the components of the hydrologic cycle, rather than just the end result variables such as precipitation and soil moisture. If we can predict and simulate variations in evaporation and moisture convergence, as well as precipitation, then we will have greater confidence in our ability to at least model precipitation variations. Therefore, we describe here just how well we can model relevant aspects of the global hydrologic cycle. In particular, we determine how well we can model the annual and seasonal mean global precipitation, evaporation, and atmospheric water vapor transport.

Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interdisciplinary group is studying important aspects of hydrology, paleolimnology, geochemistry, and paleontology as they apply to climate-driven hydrologic changes.

Tree-Structured Stick Breaking Processes for Hierarchical Data

Many data are naturally modeled by an unobserved hierarchical structure. In this paper we propose a flexible nonparametric prior over unknown data hierarchies. The approach uses nested stick-breaking processes to allow for trees of unbounded width and depth, where data can live at any node and are infinitely exchangeable. One can view our model as providing infinite mixtures where the components have a dependency structure corresponding to an evolutionary diffusion down a tree. By using a stick-breaking approach, we can apply Markov chain Monte Carlo methods based on slice sampling to perform Bayesian inference and simulate from the posterior distribution on trees. We apply our method to hierarchical clustering of images and topic modeling of text data.

HEAVY VEHICLE VIBRATION - A CASE STUDY.

A method is presented for the digital simulation of multiple degrees-of-freedom lumped parameter vibrating systems with arbitrary constitutive elements in an inertial frame of reference. The geometry of the system is treated independently of the constitutive elements and as a result nonlinear (time domain) or linearised (frequency domain) calculations may be performed using a single input description. The method is used to simulate a 3-axle rigid heavy commercial vehicle for harsh vibrating conditions. Some of the assumptions to which the calculations are sensitive are examined. Agreement between the response of a 3-dimensional whole vehicle model and measurements on the test vehicle is satisfactory.

THEORETICAL ROAD DAMAGE DUE TO DYNAMIC TYRE FORCES OF HEAVY VEHICLES. PART 1: DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF VEHICLES AND ROAD SURFACES.

Theory is presented for simulating the dynamic wheel forces generated by heavy road vehicles and the resulting dynamic response of road surfaces to these loads. Sample calculations are provided and the vehicle simulation is validated with data from full-scale tests. The methods are used in the accompanying paper to simulate the road damage done by a tandem-axle vehicle.

An investigation into the residual stresses in an aluminium 2024 test weld

This paper uses finite element (FE) analysis to examine the residual stresses generated during the TIG welding of aluminium aerospace alloys. It also looks at whether such an approach could be useful for evaluating the effectiveness of various residual stress control techniques. However, such simulations cannot be founded in a vacuum. They require accurate measurements to refine and validate them. The unique aspect of this work is that two powerful engineering techniques are combined: FE modelling and neutron diffraction. Weld trials were performed and the direct measurement of residual strain made using the ENGIN neutron diffraction strain scanning facility. The predicted results show an excellent agreement with experimental values. Finally this model is used to simulate a weld made using a "Low Stress No Distortion" (LSND) technique. Although the stress reduction predicted is only moderate, the study suggests the approach to be a quick and efficient means of optimising such techniques.

Analysis of the piston ring/liner oil film development during warm-up for an SI-engine

A one-dimensional ring-pack lubrication model developed at MIT is applied to simulate the oil film behavior during the warm-up period of a Kohler spark ignition engine [1]. This is done by making assumptions for the evolution of the oil temperatures during warm-up and that the oil control ring during downstrokes is fully flooded. The ring-pack lubrication model includes features such as three different lubrication regimes, i.e. pure hydrodynamic lubrication, boundary lubrication and pure asperity contact, non-steady wetting of both inlet and outlet of the piston ring, capability to use all ring face profiles that can be approximated by piece-wise polynomials and, finally, the ability to model the rheology of multi-grade oils. Not surprisingly, the simulations show that by far the most important parameter is the temperature dependence of the oil viscosity. This dependence is subsequently examined further by choosing different oils. The baseline oil is SAE 10W30 and results are compared to those using the SAE 30 and the SAE 10W50 oils.

Vortex Transport and Blade Interactions in High Pressure Turbines

This paper presents a study of the three-dimensional flow field within the blade rows of a high-pressure axial flow steam turbine stage. Half-delta wings were fixed to a rotating hub to simulate an upstream rotor passage vortex. The flow field is investigated in a Low-Speed Research Turbine using pneumatic and hot-wire probes downstream of the blade row. The paper examines the impact of the delta wing vortex transport on the performance of the downstream blade row. Steady and unsteady numerical simulations were performed using structured 3D Navier-Stokes solver to further understand the flow field. The loss measurements at the exit of the stator blade showed an increase in stagnation pressure loss due to the delta wing vortex transport. The increase in loss was 21% of the datum stator loss, demonstrating the importance of this vortex interaction. The transport of the stator viscous flow through the rotor blade row is also described. The rotor exit flow was affected by the interaction between the enhanced stator passage vortex and the rotor blade row. Flow underturning near the hub and overturning towards the mid-span was observed, contrary to the classical model of overturning near the hub and underturning towards the mid-span. The unsteady numerical simulation results were further analysed to identify the entropy producing regions in the unsteady flow field.

Development of blade profiles for low pressure turbine applications

This paper describes a program of work, largely experimental, which was undertaken with the objective of developing an improved blade profile for the low-pressure turbine in aero-engine applications. Preliminary experiments were conducted using a novel technique. An existing cascade of datum blades was modified to enable the pressure distribution on the suction surface of one of the blades to be altered. Various means, such as shaped inserts, an adjustable flap at the trailing edge, and changing stagger were employed to change the geometry of the passage. These experiments provided boundary layer and lift data for a wide range of suction surface pressure distributions. The data was then used as a guide for the development of new blade profiles. The new blade profiles were then investigated in a low-speed cascade that included a set of moving bars upstream of the cascade of blades to simulate the effect of the incoming wakes from the previous blade row in a multistage turbine environment.

LES and hybrid LES/RANS simulations for conjugate heat transfer over a matrix of cubes

Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a novel k -l based hybrid LES/RANS approach have been applied to simulate a conjugate heat transfer problem involving flow over a matrix of surface mounted cubes. In order to assess the capability and reliability of the newly developed k -l based hybrid LES/RANS, numerical results are compared with new LES and existing RANS results. Comparisons include mean velocity profiles, Reynolds stresses and conjugate heat transfer. As well as for hybrid LES/RANS validation purposes, the LES results are used to gain insights into the complex flow physics and heat transfer mechanisms. Numerical simulations show that the hybrid LES/RANS approach is effective. Mean and instantaneous fluid temperatures adjacent to the cube surface are found to strongly correlate with flow structure. Although the LES captures more mean velocity field complexities, broadly time averaged wake temperature fields are found similar for the LES and hybrid LES/RANS. Copyright © 2005 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of the chirp performance of electroabsorption modulators using a numerical system model

A model to simulate an electroabsorption modulator in a dispersive communications system is described and confirmed experimentally for a 5Gbit/s 100km system. Optimisation of the device shows that transmission of 10Gbit/s over 100km is possible.

Design of carbon nanotubes based microwave applications employing mechanical resonance analysis

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have good mechanical properties and unique structural, electronic, thermal, and optical characteristics. In this work, we present the results of our investigations of a resonator device based on embedded vertical CNT arrays. The device's design is based on the mechanical resonance of the tubes. CoventorWare FEA tools have been used to simulate the mechanical resonance frequencies of the vertical nanotubes arrays integrated on a silicon substrate. ©2008 IEEE.