Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Bayesian analysis of the scatterometer wind retrieval inverse problem:Some new approaches

The retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer observations is a non-linear inverse problem. A common approach to solving inverse problems is to adopt a Bayesian framework and to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the observations by using a likelihood model relating the observations to the parameters, and a prior distribution over the parameters. We show how Gaussian process priors can be used efficiently with a variety of likelihood models, using local forward (observation) models and direct inverse models for the scatterometer. We present an enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the resulting multimodal posterior distribution. We go on to show how the computational complexity of the inference can be controlled by using a sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm for estimation with Gaussian processes. This helps to overcome the most serious barrier to the use of probabilistic, Gaussian process methods in remote sensing inverse problems, which is the prohibitively large size of the data sets. We contrast the sampling results with the approximations that are found by using the sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm.

Vibration analysis of a printed circuit board

The reliability of the printed circuit board assembly under dynamic environments, such as those found onboard airplanes, ships and land vehicles is receiving more attention. This research analyses the dynamic characteristics of the printed circuit board (PCB) supported by edge retainers and plug-in connectors. By modelling the wedge retainer and connector as providing simply supported boundary condition with appropriate rotational spring stiffnesses along their respective edges with the aid of finite element codes, accurate natural frequencies for the board against experimental natural frequencies are obtained. For a PCB supported by two opposite wedge retainers and a plug-in connector and with its remaining edge free of any restraint, it is found that these real supports behave somewhere between the simply supported and clamped boundary conditions and provide a percentage fixity of 39.5% more than the classical simply supported case. By using an eigensensitivity method, the rotational stiffnesses representing the boundary supports of the PCB can be updated effectively and is capable of representing the dynamics of the PCB accurately. The result shows that the percentage error in the fundamental frequency of the PCB finite element model is substantially reduced from 22.3% to 1.3%. The procedure demonstrated the effectiveness of using only the vibration test frequencies as reference data when the mode shapes of the original untuned model are almost identical to the referenced modes/experimental data. When using only modal frequencies in model improvement, the analysis is very much simplified. Furthermore, the time taken to obtain the experimental data will be substantially reduced as the experimental mode shapes are not required.In addition, this thesis advocates a relatively simple method in determining the support locations for maximising the fundamental frequency of vibrating structures. The technique is simple and does not require any optimisation or sequential search algorithm in the analysis. The key to the procedure is to position the necessary supports at positions so as to eliminate the lower modes from the original configuration. This is accomplished by introducing point supports along the nodal lines of the highest possible mode from the original configuration, so that all the other lower modes are eliminated by the introduction of the new or extra supports to the structure. It also proposes inspecting the average driving point residues along the nodal lines of vibrating plates to find the optimal locations of the supports. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate its validity. By applying to the PCB supported on its three sides by two wedge retainers and a connector, it is found that a single point constraint that would yield maximum fundamental frequency is located at the mid-point of the nodal line, namely, node 39. This point support has the effect of increasing the structure's fundamental frequency from 68.4 Hz to 146.9 Hz, or 115% higher.

The application of parallel processing methods to vibrational analysis

The trend in modal extraction algorithms is to use all the available frequency response functions data to obtain a global estimate of the natural frequencies, damping ratio and mode shapes. Improvements in transducer and signal processing technology allow the simultaneous measurement of many hundreds of channels of response data. The quantity of data available and the complexity of the extraction algorithms make considerable demands on the available computer power and require a powerful computer or dedicated workstation to perform satisfactorily. An alternative to waiting for faster sequential processors is to implement the algorithm in parallel, for example on a network of Transputers. Parallel architectures are a cost effective means of increasing computational power, and a larger number of response channels would simply require more processors. This thesis considers how two typical modal extraction algorithms, the Rational Fraction Polynomial method and the Ibrahim Time Domain method, may be implemented on a network of transputers. The Rational Fraction Polynomial Method is a well known and robust frequency domain 'curve fitting' algorithm. The Ibrahim Time Domain method is an efficient algorithm that 'curve fits' in the time domain. This thesis reviews the algorithms, considers the problems involved in a parallel implementation, and shows how they were implemented on a real Transputer network.

A sequential mechanism for clathrin cage disassembly by 70-kDa heat-shock cognate protein (Hsc70) and auxilin

An essential stage in endocytic coated vesicle recycling is the dissociation of clathrin from the vesicle coat by the molecular chaperone, 70-kDa heat-shock cognate protein (Hsc70), and the J-domain-containing protein, auxilin, in an ATP-dependent process. We present a detailed mechanistic analysis of clathrin disassembly catalyzed by Hsc70 and auxilin, using loss of perpendicular light scattering to monitor the process. We report that a single auxilin per clathrin triskelion is required for maximal rate of disassembly, that ATP is hydrolyzed at the same rate that disassembly occurs, and that three ATP molecules are hydrolyzed per clathrin triskelion released. Stopped-flow measurements revealed a lag phase in which the scattering intensity increased owing to association of Hsc70 with clathrin cages followed by serial rounds of ATP hydrolysis prior to triskelion removal. Global fit of stopped-flow data to several physically plausible mechanisms showed the best fit to a model in which sequential hydrolysis of three separate ATP molecules is required for the eventual release of a triskelion from the clathrin-auxilin cage.

Sampling of fluids for analysis

Disclosed is a fluid sampling apparatus (12). The apparatus has a sample inlet port (14) in communication with a fluid space (10) containing the fluid to be sampled. An analysis port (16) is provided for communication with an analysis device such as a mass spectrometer. A dilution gas injection port (22) is provided to dilute fluid is sampled from the fluid space via the sample inlet port. The diluted sample fluid is then conducted to the analysis port. The sampling apparatus is intended particularly for use in analysing biomass pyrolysis processes.

Static Analysis of Usefulness States in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of evolution rules. But, to establish the rules to be applied, it is required the previous calculation of useful, applicable and active rules. Hence, computation of useful evolution rules is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. This work defines usefulness states through an exhaustive analysis of the P system for every membrane and for every possible configuration of the membrane structure during the computation. Moreover, this analysis can be done in a static way; therefore membranes only have to check their usefulness states to obtain their set of useful rules during execution.

Soliton radiation beat analysis of optical pulses generated from two continuous-wave lasers

We propose a fibre-based approach for generation of optical frequency combs (OFCs) with the aim of calibration of astronomical spectrographs in the low and medium-resolution range. This approach includes two steps: in the first step, an appropriate state of optical pulses is generated and subsequently moulded in the second step delivering the desired OFC. More precisely, the first step is realised by injection of two continuous-wave (CW) lasers into a conventional single-mode fibre, whereas the second step generates a broad OFC by using the optical solitons generated in step one as initial condition. We investigate the conversion of a bichromatic input wave produced by two initial CW lasers into a train of optical solitons, which happens in the fibre used as step one. Especially, we are interested in the soliton content of the pulses created in this fibre. For that, we study different initial conditions (a single cosine-hump, an Akhmediev breather, and a deeply modulated bichromatic wave) by means of soliton radiation beat analysis and compare the results to draw conclusion about the soliton content of the state generated in the first step. In case of a deeply modulated bichromatic wave, we observed the formation of a collective soliton crystal for low input powers and the appearance of separated solitons for high input powers. An intermediate state showing the features of both, the soliton crystal and the separated solitons, turned out to be most suitable for the generation of OFC for the purpose of calibration of astronomical spectrographs.

A theoretical analysis of eyewitness identification: Dual -process theory, signal detection theory and eyewitness confidence

Given the growing number of wrongful convictions involving faulty eyewitness evidence and the strong reliance by jurors on eyewitness testimony, researchers have sought to develop safeguards to decrease erroneous identifications. While decades of eyewitness research have led to numerous recommendations for the collection of eyewitness evidence, less is known regarding the psychological processes that govern identification responses. The purpose of the current research was to expand the theoretical knowledge of eyewitness identification decisions by exploring two separate memory theories: signal detection theory and dual-process theory. This was accomplished by examining both system and estimator variables in the context of a novel lineup recognition paradigm. Both theories were also examined in conjunction with confidence to determine whether it might add significantly to the understanding of eyewitness memory. ^ In two separate experiments, both an encoding and a retrieval-based manipulation were chosen to examine the application of theory to eyewitness identification decisions. Dual-process estimates were measured through the use of remember-know judgments (Gardiner & Richardson-Klavehn, 2000). In Experiment 1, the effects of divided attention and lineup presentation format (simultaneous vs. sequential) were examined. In Experiment 2, perceptual distance and lineup response deadline were examined. Overall, the results indicated that discrimination and remember judgments (recollection) were generally affected by variations in encoding quality and response criterion and know judgments (familiarity) were generally affected by variations in retrieval options. Specifically, as encoding quality improved, discrimination ability and judgments of recollection increased; and as the retrieval task became more difficult there was a shift toward lenient choosing and more reliance on familiarity. ^ The application of signal detection theory and dual-process theory in the current experiments produced predictable results on both system and estimator variables. These theories were also compared to measures of general confidence, calibration, and diagnosticity. The application of the additional confidence measures in conjunction with signal detection theory and dual-process theory gave a more in-depth explanation than either theory alone. Therefore, the general conclusion is that eyewitness identifications can be understood in a more complete manor by applying theory and examining confidence. Future directions and policy implications are discussed. ^

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Finite Element Simulations of stretch-blow moulding with experimental validation over a broad process window

Injection stretch blow moulding is a well-established method of forming thin-walled containers and has been extensively researched for numerous years. This paper is concerned with validating the finite element analysis of the free-stretch-blow process in an effort to progress the development of injection stretch blow moulding of poly(ethylene terephthalate). Extensive data was obtained experimentally over a wide process window accounting for material temperature and air flow rate, while capturing cavity pressure, stretch-rod reaction force and preform surface strain. This data was then used to assess the accuracy of the correlating FE simulation constructed using ABAQUS/Explicit solver and an appropriate viscoelastic material subroutine. Results reveal that the simulation is able to give good quantitative correlation for conditions where the deformation was predominantly equal biaxial whilst qualitative correlation was achievable when the mode of deformation was predominantly sequential biaxial. Overall the simulation was able to pick up the general trends of how the pressure, reaction force, strain rate and strain vary with the variation in preform temperature and air flow rate. The knowledge gained from these analyses provides insight into the mechanisms of bottle formation, subsequently improving the blow moulding simulation and allowing for reduction in future development costs.

Insights into the multistep transformation of MGUS to myeloma using microarray expression analysis.

To define specific pathways important in the multistep transformation process of normal plasma cells (PCs) to monoclonal gammopathy of uncertain significance (MGUS) and multiple myeloma (MM), we have applied microarray analysis to PCs from 5 healthy donors (N), 7 patients with MGUS, and 24 patients with newly diagnosed MM. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering using 125 genes with a large variation across all samples defined 2 groups: N and MGUS/MM. Supervised analysis identified 263 genes differentially expressed between N and MGUS and 380 genes differentially expressed between N and MM, 197 of which were also differentially regulated between N and MGUS. Only 74 genes were differentially expressed between MGUS and MM samples, indicating that the differences between MGUS and MM are smaller than those between N and MM or N and MGUS. Differentially expressed genes included oncogenes/tumor-suppressor genes (LAF4, RB1, and disabled homolog 2), cell-signaling genes (RAS family members, B-cell signaling and NF-kappaB genes), DNA-binding and transcription-factor genes (XBP1, zinc finger proteins, forkhead box, and ring finger proteins), and developmental genes (WNT and SHH pathways). Understanding the molecular pathogenesis of MM by gene expression profiling has demonstrated sequential genetic changes from N to malignant PCs and highlighted important pathways involved in the transformation of MGUS to MM.

Geochemical analysis at ODP Site 207-1261 from the Demerara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic

A high-resolution geochemical record of a 120 cm black shale interval deposited during the Coniacian-Santonian Oceanic Anoxic Event 3 (ODP Leg 207, Site 1261, Demerara Rise) has been constructed to provide detailed insight into rapid changes in deep ocean and sediment paleo-redox conditions. High contents of organic matter, sulfur and redox-sensitive trace metals (Cd, Mo, V, Zn), as well as continuous lamination, point to deposition under consistently oxygen-free and largely sulfidic bottom water conditions. However, rapid and cyclic changes in deep ocean redox are documented by short-term (~15-20 ka) intervals with decreased total organic carbon (TOC), S and redox-sensitive trace metal contents, and in particular pronounced phosphorus peaks (up to 2.5 wt% P) associated with elevated Fe oxide contents. Sequential iron and phosphate extractions confirm that P is dominantly bound to iron oxides and incorporated into authigenic apatite. Preservation of this Fe-P coupling in an otherwise sulfidic depositional environment (as indicated by Fe speciation and high amounts of sulfurized organic matter) may be unexpected, and provides evidence for temporarily non-sulfidic bottom waters. However, there is no evidence for deposition under oxic conditions. Instead, sulfidic conditions were punctuated by periods of anoxic, non-sulfidic bottom waters. During these periods, phosphate was effectively scavenged during precipitation of iron (oxyhydr)oxides in the upper water column, and was subsequently deposited and largely preserved at the sea floor. After ~15-25 ka, sulfidic bottom water conditions were re-established, leading to the initial precipitation of CdS, ZnS and pyrite. Subsequently, increasing concentrations of H2S in the water column led to extensive formation of sulfurized organic matter, which effectively scavenged particle-reactive Mo complexes (thiomolybdates). At Site 1261, sulfidic bottom waters lasted for ?90-100 ka, followed by another period of anoxic, non-sulfidic conditions lasting for ~15-20 ka. The observed cyclicity at the lower end of the redox scale may have been triggered by repeated incursions of more oxygenated surface- to mid-waters from the South Atlantic resulting in a lowering of the oxic-anoxic chemocline in the water column. Alternatively, sea water sulfate might have been stripped by long-lasting high rates of sulfate reduction, removing the ultimate source for HS**- production.

Bcl-xL (S49) and (S62) sequential phosphorylation/dephosphorylation during mitosis prevents chromosome instability and aneuploidy

Une caractéristique intéressante de la protéine Bcl-xL est la présence d'un domaine en boucle non-structurée entre les hélices α1 and α2 de la protéine. Ce domaine protéique n'est pas essentiel pour sa fonction anti-apoptotique et absent chez CED-9, la protéine orthologue chez Caenorhabditis elegans. A l'intérieur de ce domaine, Bcl-xL subit une phosphorylation et déphosphorylation dynamique sur les résidus Ser49 et Ser62 en phase G2 du cycle cellulaire et lors de la mitose. Lorsque ces résidus sont mutés et les protéines exprimées dans des cellules cancéreuses, les cellules démontrent plusieurs défauts mitotiques liés à l'instabilité chromosomique. Pour analyser les effets de Bcl-xL Ser49 et Ser62 dans les cellules normales, les présentes études ont été réalisées dans des cellules diploïdes humaines normales, et in vivo chez Caenorhabditis elegans. Dans une première étude, nous avons utilisé la lignée cellulaire de cellules fibroblastiques diploïdes humaines normales BJ, exprimant Bcl-xL (type sauvage), (S49A), (S49D), (S62A), (S62D) et les double (S49/62A) et (S49/62D) mutants. Les cellules exprimant les mutants de phosphorylation ont montré des cinétiques de doublement de la population cellulaire réduites. Ces effets sur la cinétique de doublement de la population cellulaire corrèle avec l'apparition de la sénescence cellulaire, sans impact sur les taux de mort cellulaire. Ces cellules sénescentes affichent des phénotypes typiques de sénescence associés notamment à haut niveau de l'activité β-galactosidase associée à la sénescence, la sécrétion d' interleukine-6, l'activation de p53 et de p21WAF1/ Cip1, un inhibiteur des complexes kinase cycline-dépendant, ainsi que la formation de foyers de chromatine nucléaire associés à γH2A.X. Les analyses de fluorescence par hybridation in situ et des caryotypes par coloration au Giemsa ont révélé que l'expression des mutants de phosphorylation de Bcl-xL provoquent de l'instabilité chromosomique et l'aneuploïdie. Ces résultats suggèrent que les cycles de phosphorylation et déphosphorylation dynamiques de Bcl-xL Ser49 et Ser62 sont importants dans le maintien de l'intégrité des chromosomes lors de la mitose dans les cellules normales. Dans une deuxième étude, nous avons entrepris des expériences chez Caenorhabditis elegans pour comprendre l'importance des résidus Ser49 et Ser62 de Bcl-xL in vivo. Les vers transgéniques portant les mutations de Bcl-xL (S49A, S62A, S49D, S62D et S49/62A) ont été générés et leurs effets ont été analysés sur les cellules germinales des jeunes vers adultes. Les vers portant les mutations de Bcl-xL ont montré une diminution de ponte et d'éclosion des oeufs, des variations de la longueur de leurs régions mitotiques et des zones de transition, des anomalies chromosomiques à leur stade de diplotène, et une augmentation de l'apoptose des cellules germinales. Certaines de ces souches transgéniques, en particulier les variants Ser/Ala, ont également montré des variations de durée de vie par rapport aux vers témoins. Ces observations in vivo ont confirmé l'importance de Ser49 et Ser62 à l'intérieur du domaine à boucle de Bcl-xL pour le maintien de la stabilité chromosomique. Ces études auront une incidence sur les futures stratégies visant à développer et à identifier des composés qui pourraient cibler non seulement le domaine anti-apoptotique de la protéine Bcl-xL, mais aussi son domaine mitotique pour la thérapie du cancer.

Employment of the Technique of Radiotracers for Analysis of Industrial Filters

The main aim of this work is to develop a methodology to evaluate the characteristics of porous media in filter using the radio-tracing technique. To do this, an experimental prototype filter made up of an acrylic cylinder, vertically mounted and supported on the lower side by a controlled leaking valve was developed. Two filters (spheres of acrylic and silica crystals) were used to check the movement of the water through the porous media using 123I in its MIBG (iodine-123-meta-iodo benzyl-guanidine) form. Further up the filter an instantaneous injection of the substance makes it possible to see the passage of radioactive clouds through the two scintillatory detectors NaI (2x2)” positioned before and immediately after the cylinder with the filtering element (porous media). The are caused by the detectors on the passage of the radioactive cloud are analyzed through statistical functions using the weighted moment method which makes it possible to calculate the Residence-Time (the amount of time the tracer takes to thoroughly pass through the filter) per the equation of dispersion in tubular flow and the one-directional flow of the radiotracer in the porous media.