Conditioning model output statistics of regional climate model precipitation on circulation patterns

Dynamical downscaling of Global Climate Models (GCMs) through regional climate models (RCMs) potentially improves the usability of the output for hydrological impact studies. However, a further downscaling or interpolation of precipitation from RCMs is often needed to match the precipitation characteristics at the local scale. This study analysed three Model Output Statistics (MOS) techniques to adjust RCM precipitation; (1) a simple direct method (DM), (2) quantile-quantile mapping (QM) and (3) a distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach. The modelled precipitation was daily means from 16 RCMs driven by ERA40 reanalysis data over the 1961–2000 provided by the ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) project over a small catchment located in the Midlands, UK. All methods were conditioned on the entire time series, separate months and using an objective classification of Lamb's weather types. The performance of the MOS techniques were assessed regarding temporal and spatial characteristics of the precipitation fields, as well as modelled runoff using the HBV rainfall-runoff model. The results indicate that the DBS conditioned on classification patterns performed better than the other methods, however an ensemble approach in terms of both climate models and downscaling methods is recommended to account for uncertainties in the MOS methods.

Desert dust deposition on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia in 2009-2012 as recorded in snow and shallow ice core: high-resolution "provenancing", transport patterns, physical properties and soluble ionic composition

A record of dust deposition events between 2009 and 2012 on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow ice core is presented for the first time for this region. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (cf. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in north-eastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric south-westerly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level and, although these events were less frequent, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centered over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or south-easterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterise dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Understanding the spatial mass transfer behaviour of a pulsating jet HMV system: vortex generation and characterisation

The flow patterns generated by a pulsating jet used to study hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV) are investigated. It is shown that the pronounced edge effect reported previously is the result of the generation of a vortex ring from the pulsating jet. This vortex behaviour of the pulsating jet system is imaged using a number of visualisation techniques. These include a dye system and an electrochemically generated bubble stream. In each case a toroidal vortex ring was observed. Image analysis revealed that the velocity of this motion was of the order of 250 mm s−1 with a corresponding Reynolds number of the order of 1200. This motion, in conjunction with the electrode structure, is used to explain the strong ‘ring and halo’ features detected by electrochemical mapping of the system reported previously.

Spatial interaction among nontoxic phytoplankton, toxic phytoplankton and zooplankton: emergence in space and time

In homogeneous environments, by overturning the possibility of competitive exclusion among phytoplankton species, and by regulating the dynamics of overall plankton population, toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) potentially help in maintaining plankton diversity—a result shown recently. Here, I explore the competitive effects of TPP on phytoplankton and zooplankton species undergoing spatial movements in the subsurface water. The spatial interactions among the species are represented in the form of reaction-diffusion equations. Suitable parametric conditions under which Turing patterns may or may not evolve are investigated. Spatiotemporal distributions of species biomass are simulated using the diffusivity assumptions realistic for natural planktonic systems. The study demonstrates that spatial movements of planktonic systems in the presence of TPP generate and maintain inhomogeneous biomass distribution of competing phytoplankton, as well as grazer zooplankton, thereby ensuring the persistence of multiple species in space and time. The overall results may potentially explain the sustainability of biodiversity and the spatiotemporal emergence of phytoplankton and zooplankton species under the influence of TPP combined with their physical movement in the subsurface water.

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Temporal and spatial variability of auroral forms in the 10–14 MLT sector: Relationship to plasma convection and solar wind-magnetosphere coupling

Ground-based observations of dayside auroral forms and magnetic perturbations in the arctic sectors of Svalbard and Greenland, in combination with the high-resolution measurements of ionospheric ion drift and temperature by the EISCAT radar, are used to study temporal/spatial structures of cusp-type auroral forms in relation to convection. Large-scale patterns of equivalent convection in the dayside polar ionosphere are derived from the magnetic observations in Greenland and Svalbard. This information is used to estimate the ionospheric convection pattern in the vicinity of the cusp/cleft aurora. The reported observations, covering the period 0700-1130 UT, on January 11, 1993, are separated into four intervals according to the observed characteristics of the aurora and ionospheric convection. The morphology and intensity of the aurora are very different in quiet and disturbed intervals. A latitudinally narrow zone of intense and dynamical 630.0 nm emission equatorward of 75 degrees MLAT, was observed during periods of enhanced antisunward convection in the cusp region. This (type 1 cusp aurora) is considered to be the signature of plasma entry via magnetopause reconnection at low magnetopause latitudes, i.e. the low-latitude boundary layer (LLB I,). Another zone of weak 630.0 nm emission (type 2 cusp aurora) was observed to extend up to high latitudes (similar to 79 degrees MLAT) during relatively quiet magnetic conditions, when indications of reverse (sunward) convection was observed in the dayside polar cap. This is postulated to be a signature of merging between a northward directed IMF (B-z > 0) and the geomagnetic field poleward of the cusp. The coexistence of type 1 and 2 auroras was observed under intermediate circumstances. The optical observations from Svalbard and Greenland were also used to determine the temporal and spatial evolution of type 1 auroral forms, i.e. poleward-moving auroral events occurring in the vicinity of a rotational convection reversal in the early post-noon sector. Each event appeared as a local brightening at the equatorward boundary of the pre-existing type 1 cusp aurora, followed by poleward and eastward expansions of luminosity. The auroral events were associated with poleward-moving surges of enhanced ionospheric convection and F-layer ion temperature as observed by the EISCAT radar in Tromso. The EISCAT ion flow data in combination with the auroral observations show strong evidence for plasma flow across the open/closed field line boundary.

Motor imagery-induced EEG patterns in individuals with spinal cord injury and their impact on brain–computer interface accuracy

Objective. Assimilating the diagnosis complete spinal cord injury (SCI) takes time and is not easy, as patients know that there is no ‘cure’ at the present time. Brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) can facilitate daily living. However, inter-subject variability demands measurements with potential user groups and an understanding of how they differ to healthy users BCIs are more commonly tested with. Thus, a three-class motor imagery (MI) screening (left hand, right hand, feet) was performed with a group of 10 able-bodied and 16 complete spinal-cord-injured people (paraplegics, tetraplegics) with the objective of determining what differences were present between the user groups and how they would impact upon the ability of these user groups to interact with a BCI. Approach. Electrophysiological differences between patient groups and healthy users are measured in terms of sensorimotor rhythm deflections from baseline during MI, electroencephalogram microstate scalp maps and strengths of inter-channel phase synchronization. Additionally, using a common spatial pattern algorithm and a linear discriminant analysis classifier, the classification accuracy was calculated and compared between groups. Main results. It is seen that both patient groups (tetraplegic and paraplegic) have some significant differences in event-related desynchronization strengths, exhibit significant increases in synchronization and reach significantly lower accuracies (mean (M) = 66.1%) than the group of healthy subjects (M = 85.1%). Significance. The results demonstrate significant differences in electrophysiological correlates of motor control between healthy individuals and those individuals who stand to benefit most from BCI technology (individuals with SCI). They highlight the difficulty in directly translating results from healthy subjects to participants with SCI and the challenges that, therefore, arise in providing BCIs to such individuals

Motor imagery induced EEG patterns in spinal cord injury patients and their impact on Brain-Computer Interface accuracy

OBJECTIVE: Assimilating the diagnosis complete spinal cord injury (SCI) takes time and is not easy, as patients know that there is no 'cure' at the present time. Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) can facilitate daily living. However, inter-subject variability demands measurements with potential user groups and an understanding of how they differ to healthy users BCIs are more commonly tested with. Thus, a three-class motor imagery (MI) screening (left hand, right hand, feet) was performed with a group of 10 able-bodied and 16 complete spinal-cord-injured people (paraplegics, tetraplegics) with the objective of determining what differences were present between the user groups and how they would impact upon the ability of these user groups to interact with a BCI. APPROACH: Electrophysiological differences between patient groups and healthy users are measured in terms of sensorimotor rhythm deflections from baseline during MI, electroencephalogram microstate scalp maps and strengths of inter-channel phase synchronization. Additionally, using a common spatial pattern algorithm and a linear discriminant analysis classifier, the classification accuracy was calculated and compared between groups. MAIN RESULTS: It is seen that both patient groups (tetraplegic and paraplegic) have some significant differences in event-related desynchronization strengths, exhibit significant increases in synchronization and reach significantly lower accuracies (mean (M) = 66.1%) than the group of healthy subjects (M = 85.1%). SIGNIFICANCE: The results demonstrate significant differences in electrophysiological correlates of motor control between healthy individuals and those individuals who stand to benefit most from BCI technology (individuals with SCI). They highlight the difficulty in directly translating results from healthy subjects to participants with SCI and the challenges that, therefore, arise in providing BCIs to such individuals.

Spatial structuring of arbuscular mycorrhizal communities in benchmark and modified temperate eucalypt woodlands

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are crucial to the functioning of the plant–soil system, but little is known about the spatial structuring of AMF communities across landscapes modified by agriculture. AMF community composition was characterized across four sites in the highly cleared south-western Australian wheatbelt that were originally dominated by forb-rich eucalypt woodlands. Environmentally induced spatial structuring in AMF composition was examined at four scales: the regional scale associated with location, the site scale associated with past management (benchmark woodlands with no agricultural management history, livestock grazing, recent revegetation), the patch scale associated with trees and canopy gaps, and the fine scale associated with the herbaceous plant species beneath which soils were sourced. Field-collected soils were cultured in trap pots; then, AMF composition was determined by identifying spores and through ITS1 sequencing. Structuring was strongest at site scales, where composition was strongly related to prior management and associated changes in soil phosphorus. The two fields were dominated by the genera Funneliformis and Paraglomus, with little convergence back to woodland composition after revegetation. The two benchmark woodlands were characterized by Ambispora gerdemannii and taxa from Gigasporaceae. Their AMF communities were strongly structured at patch scales associated with trees and gaps, in turn most strongly related to soil N. By contrast, there were few patterns at fine scales related to different herbaceous plant species, or at regional scales associated with the 175 km distance between benchmark woodlands. Important areas for future investigation are to identify the circumstances in which recolonization by woodland AMF may be limited by fungal propagule availability, reduced plant diversity and/or altered chemistry in agricultural soils.

The diffusion of grassroots innovations for sustainability in Italy and Great Britain: an exploratory spatial data analysis

Little research so far has been devoted to understanding the diffusion of grassroots innovation for sustainability across space. This paper explores and compares the spatial diffusion of two networks of grassroots innovations, the Transition Towns Network (TTN) and Gruppi di Acquisto Solidale (Solidarity Purchasing Groups – GAS), in Great Britain and Italy. Spatio-temporal diffusion data were mined from available datasets, and patterns of diffusion were uncovered through an exploratory data analysis. The analysis shows that GAS and TTN diffusion in Italy and Great Britain is spatially structured, and that the spatial structure has changed over time. TTN has diffused differently in Great Britain and Italy, while GAS and TTN have diffused similarly in central Italy. The uneven diffusion of these grassroots networks on the one hand challenges current narratives on the momentum of grassroots innovations, but on the other highlights important issues in the geography of grassroots innovations for sustainability, such as cross-movement transfers and collaborations, institutional thickness, and interplay of different proximities in grassroots innovation diffusion.

Concordant Phylogeographies of 2 Malaria Vectors Attest to Common Spatial and Demographic Histories

The phylogeography of South American lineages is a topic of heated debate. Although a single process is unlikely to describe entire ecosystems, related species, which incur similar habitat limitations, can inform the history for a subsection of assemblages. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the cytochrome oxidase I marker from Anopheles triannulatus (N = 72) and previous results for A. darlingi (N = 126) in a broad portion of their South American distributions. Both species share similar population subdivisions, with aggregations northeast of the Amazon River, in southern coastal Brazil and 2 regions in central Brazil. The average (ST) between these groups was 0.39 for A. triannulatus. Populations northeast of the Amazon and in southeastern Brazil are generally reciprocally monophyletic to the remaining groups. Based on these initial analyses, we constructed the a priori hypothesis that the Amazon and regions of high declivity pose geographic barriers to dispersal in these taxa. Mantel tests confirmed that these areas block gene flow for more than 1000 km for both species. The efficacy of these impediments was tested using landscape genetics, which could not reject our a priori hypothesis but did reject simpler scenarios. Results form summary statistics and phylogenetics suggest that both lineages originated in central Amazonia (south of the Amazon River) during the late Pleistocene (579 000 years ago) and that they followed the same paths of expansion into their contemporary distributions. These results may have implications for other species sharing similar ecological limitations but probably are not applicable as a general paradigm of Neotropical biogeography.

Is bird incidence in Atlantic forest fragments influenced by landscape patterns at multiple scales?

The degree to which habitat fragmentation affects bird incidence is species specific and may depend on varying spatial scales. Selecting the correct scale of measurement is essential to appropriately assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence. Our objective was to determine which spatial scale of landscape measurement best describes the incidence of three bird species (Pyriglena leucoptera, Xiphorhynchus fuscus and Chiroxiphia caudata) in the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest and test if multi-scalar models perform better than single-scalar ones. Bird incidence was assessed in 80 forest fragments. The surrounding landscape structure was described with four indices measured at four spatial scales (400-, 600-, 800- and 1,000-m buffers around the sample points). The explanatory power of each scale in predicting bird incidence was assessed using logistic regression, bootstrapped with 1,000 repetitions. The best results varied between species (1,000-m radius for P. leucoptera; 800-m for X. fuscus and 600-m for C. caudata), probably due to their distinct feeding habits and foraging strategies. Multi-scale models always resulted in better predictions than single-scale models, suggesting that different aspects of the landscape structure are related to different ecological processes influencing bird incidence. In particular, our results suggest that local extinction and (re)colonisation processes might simultaneously act at different scales. Thus, single-scale models may not be good enough to properly describe complex pattern-process relationships. Selecting variables at multiple ecologically relevant scales is a reasonable procedure to optimise the accuracy of species incidence models.

Characterization of spliced leader genes of Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri: phylogeographical analysis of Brazilian isolates from cattle supports spatial clustering of genotypes and parity with ribosomal markers

Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri from cattle and trypanosomes of other artiodactyls form a clade of closely related species in analyses using ribosomal sequences. Analysis of polymorphic sequences of a larger number of trypanosomes from broader geographical origins is required to evaluate the Clustering of isolates as suggested by previous studies. Here, we determined the sequences of the spliced leader (SL) genes of 21 isolates from cattle and 2 from water buffalo from distant regions of Brazil. Analysis of SL gene repeats revealed that the 5S rRNA gene is inserted within the intergenic region. Phylogeographical patterns inferred using SL sequences showed at least 5 major genotypes of T. theileri distributed in 2 strongly divergent lineages. Lineage TthI comprises genotypes IA and IB from buffalo and cattle, respectively, from the Southeast and Central regions, whereas genotype IC is restricted to cattle from the Southern region. Lineage Tth II includes cattle genotypes IIA, which is restricted to the North and Northeast, and IIB, found in the Centre, West, North and Northeast. PCR-RFLP of SL genes revealed valuable markers for genotyping T. theileri. The results of this study emphasize the genetic complexity and corroborate the geographical structuring of T. theileri genotypes found in cattle.

Transport control in fusion plasmas by changing electric and magnetic field spatial profiles

For magnetically confined plasmas in tokamaks, we have numerically investigated how Lagrangian chaos at the plasma edge affects the plasma confinement. Initially, we have considered the chaotic motion of particles in an equilibrium electric field with a monotonic radial profile perturbed by drift waves. We have showed that an effective transport barrier may be created at the plasma edge by modifying the electric field radial profile. In the second place, we have obtained escape patterns and magnetic footprints of chaotic magnetic field lines in the region near a tokamak wall with resonant modes due to the action of an ergodic magnetic limiter. For monotonic plasma current density profiles we have obtained distributions of field line connections to the wall and line escape channels with the same spatial pattern as the magnetic footprints on the tokamak walls. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.