INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Evaluating the impact of filming on the number of errors committed by nursing students to determine the efficacy of simulated clinical situations

Clinic simulation as a training and knowledge method allows people experiment a real event representation with the aim of acquiring knowledge, abilities and aptitudes. The filming of the staging represents a useful tool to review the decisions taken and the actions they did, with the purpose to highlight the strengths, weaknesses and the areas for improvement. The article describes a study carried out by a group of students in second course of nursing, and it tries to evaluate if there is any influence if somebody is filming you during the clinic simulation, does it make you do more errors or not?

Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Task-Driven Activity Reduces the Cortical Activity Space of the Brain: Experiment and Whole-Brain Modeling.

How a stimulus or a task alters the spontaneous dynamics of the brain remains a fundamental open question in neuroscience. One of the most robust hallmarks of task/stimulus-driven brain dynamics is the decrease of variability with respect to the spontaneous level, an effect seen across multiple experimental conditions and in brain signals observed at different spatiotemporal scales. Recently, it was observed that the trial-to-trial variability and temporal variance of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals decrease in the task-driven activity. Here we examined the dynamics of a large-scale model of the human cortex to provide a mechanistic understanding of these observations. The model allows computing the statistics of synaptic activity in the spontaneous condition and in putative tasks determined by external inputs to a given subset of brain regions. We demonstrated that external inputs decrease the variance, increase the covariances, and decrease the autocovariance of synaptic activity as a consequence of single node and large-scale network dynamics. Altogether, these changes in network statistics imply a reduction of entropy, meaning that the spontaneous synaptic activity outlines a larger multidimensional activity space than does the task-driven activity. We tested this model's prediction on fMRI signals from healthy humans acquired during rest and task conditions and found a significant decrease of entropy in the stimulus-driven activity. Altogether, our study proposes a mechanism for increasing the information capacity of brain networks by enlarging the volume of possible activity configurations at rest and reliably settling into a confined stimulus-driven state to allow better transmission of stimulus-related information.

Fluid dynamics simulation of right ventricular outflow tract oversizing.

OBJECTIVES: Repair of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) in paediatric cardiac surgery remains challenging due to the high reoperation rate. Intimal hyperplasia and consequent arteriosclerosis is one of the most important limitation factors for graft durability. Since local shear stress and pressure are predictive elements for intimal hyperplasia and wall degeneration, we sought to determine in an oversized 12-mm RVOT model, with computed fluid dynamics simulation, the local haemodynamical factors that may explain intimal hyperplasia. This was done with the aim of identifying the optimal degree of oversizing for a 12-mm native RVOT. METHODS: Twenty domestic pigs, with a weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg and a native RVOT diameter of 12 ± 1.7 mm, had valve conduits of 12, 16, 18 and 20 mm implanted. Pressure and flow were measured at 75, 100 and 125% of normal flow at RVOT at the pulmonary artery, pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the left and right pulmonary arteries. Three-dimensional computed fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation in all four geometries in all flow modalities was performed. Local shear stress and pressure conditions were investigated. RESULTS: Corresponding to 75, 100 and 125% of steady-state flow, three inlet velocity profiles were obtained, 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s, respectively. At inflow velocity profiles, low shear stress areas, ranged from 0 to 2 Pa, combined with high-pressure areas ranging from 11.5 to 12.1 mmHg that were found at distal anastomosis, at bifurcation and at the ostia of the left and right pulmonary arteries in all geometries. CONCLUSIONS: In all three oversized geometries, the local reparation of shear stress and pressure in the 16-mm model showed a similar local profile as in the native 12 mm RVOT. According to these findings, we suggest oversizing the natural 12-mm RVOT by not more than 4 mm. The elements responsible for wall degeneration and intimal hyperplasia remain very similar to the conditions present in native RVOT.

Understanding Optical Trapping Phenomena: a Simulation for Undergraduates

Optical trapping is an attractive and multidisciplinary topic that has become the center of attention to a large number of researchers. Moreover, it is a suitable subject for advanced students that requires a knowledge of a wide range of topics. As a result, it has been incorporated into some syllabuses of both undergraduate and graduate programs. In this paper, basic concepts in laser trapping theory are reviewed. To provide a better understanding of the underlying concepts for students, a Java application for simulating the behavior of a dielectric particle trapped in a highly focused beam has been developed. The program illustrates a wide range of theoretical results and features, such as the calculation of the force exerted by a beam in the Mie and Rayleigh regimes or the calibration of the trap stiffness. Some examples that are ready to be used in the classroom or in the computer lab are also supplied.

El fill de mare diabètica: un experiment de la Natura

Del fill de mare diabètica (FMD) s´ha dit que es tracta d'un autèntic 'experiment de la natura' per tractar-se d'un ésser que al llarg dels seus creixement i desenvolupament intrauterins es relaciona amb un medi ambient diferent al d'una gestació normal. Enfront d'aquesta anomalia, l'embrió primer i el fetus més tard no resten passius, sinó que generen una resposta adaptativa al medi estrany arribant a un altre nivell d'homeostasi però definitivament compensadora de la nova situació. Ara bé, en néixer i 'normalitzar-se' l'ambient, es fa palesa la malaltia...

Flocking behaviour: Agent-based simulation and hierarchical leadership.

We have studied how leaders emerge in a group as a consequence of interactions among its members. We propose that leaders can emerge as a consequence of a self-organized process based on local rules of dyadic interactions among individuals. Flocks are an example of self-organized behaviour in a group and properties similar to those observed in flocks might also explain some of the dynamics and organization of human groups. We developed an agent-based model that generated flocks in a virtual world and implemented it in a multi-agent simulation computer program that computed indices at each time step of the simulation to quantify the degree to which a group moved in a coordinated way (index of flocking behaviour) and the degree to which specific individuals led the group (index of hierarchical leadership). We ran several series of simulations in order to test our model and determine how these indices behaved under specific agent and world conditions. We identified the agent, world property, and model parameters that made stable, compact flocks emerge, and explored possible environmental properties that predicted the probability of becoming a leader.

Socially anxious and confident men interact with a forward virtual woman: an experiment study

Male volunteers entered an immersive virtual reality that depicted a party, where they were approached by a lone virtual woman who initiated a conversation. The goal was to study how socially anxious and socially confident men would react to this event. Interest focused on whether the socially anxious participants would exhibit sustained anxiety during the conversation or whether this would diminish over time, and differ from the responses of the more socially confident men.

Neutron skin of 208Pb, nuclear symmetry energy, and the parity radius experiment

A precise determination of the neutron skin thickness of a heavy nucleus sets a basic constraint on the nuclear symmetry energy (the neutron skin thickness is the difference of the neutron and proton rms radii of the nucleus). The parity radius experiment (PREX) may achieve it by electroweak parity-violating electron scattering (PVES) on 208Pb. We investigate PVES in nuclear mean field approach to allow the accurate extraction of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb from the parity-violating asymmetry probed in the experiment. We demonstrate a high linear correlation between the parity-violating asymmetry and the neutron skin thickness in successful mean field forces as the best means to constrain the neutron skin of 208Pb from PREX, without assumptions on the neutron density shape. Continuation of the experiment with higher precision in the parity-violating asymmetry is motivated since the present method can support it to constrain the density slope of the nuclear symmetry energy to new accuracy.

Molecular dynamics simulation of the spherical electrical double layer of a soft nanoparticle. Effect of the surface and counterion valence

Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to study the ion and water distribution around a spherical charged nanoparticle. A soft nanoparticle model was designed using a set of hydrophobic interaction sites distributed in six concentric spherical layers. In order to simulate the effect of charged functionalyzed groups on the nanoparticle surface, a set of charged sites were distributed in the outer layer. Four charged nanoparticle models, from a surface charge value of −0.035 Cm−2 to − 0.28 Cm−2, were studied in NaCl and CaCl2 salt solutions at 1 M and 0.1 M concentrations to evaluate the effect of the surface charge, counterion valence, and concentration of added salt. We obtain that Na + and Ca2 + ions enter inside the soft nanoparticle. Monovalent ions are more accumulated inside the nanoparticle surface, whereas divalent ions are more accumulated just in the plane of the nanoparticle surface sites. The increasing of the the salt concentration has little effect on the internalization of counterions, but significantly reduces the number of water molecules that enter inside the nanoparticle. The manner of distributing the surface charge in the nanoparticle (uniformly over all surface sites or discretely over a limited set of randomly selected sites) considerably affects the distribution of counterions in the proximities of the nanoparticle surface.