Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Scoring Methods for Ordinal Multidimensional Forced-Choice Items

In most psychological tests and questionnaires, a test score is obtained bytaking the sum of the item scores. In virtually all cases where the test orquestionnaire contains multidimensional forced-choice items, this traditionalscoring method is also applied. We argue that the summation of scores obtained with multidimensional forced-choice items produces uninterpretabletest scores. Therefore, we propose three alternative scoring methods: a weakand a strict rank preserving scoring method, which both allow an ordinalinterpretation of test scores; and a ratio preserving scoring method, whichallows a proportional interpretation of test scores. Each proposed scoringmethod yields an index for each respondent indicating the degree to whichthe response pattern is inconsistent. Analysis of real data showed that withrespect to rank preservation, the weak and strict rank preserving methodresulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method;with respect to ratio preservation, the ratio preserving scoring method resulted in lower inconsistency indices than the traditional scoring method

Does bariatric surgery improve the patient's quality of life?

Objective: The aim of this investigation was to assess the effect of malabsorptive bariatric surgery (BS) on the quality of life (QoL), applying the Nottingham Health Profile (NHP) and the bariatric analysis and reporting outcome system (BAROS). Design: A prospective cohort study was performed in 100 adult patients (> 18 years) undergoing bariatric surgery by malabsorptive technique for one year. Research methods and procedures: Patients were monitored from the beginning of the BS program until a year after the intervention, applying the NHP and the BAROS test. At baseline, the mean weight of the women was 132 ± 22 kg and the Body Mass Index (BMI) was 50.7 kg/m2. Results: The values obtained from different areas applying the NHP questionnaire showed statistical significant differences (p < 0.001) with respect to baseline values. According to the BAROS test, 48% of patients lost 25-49% of weight excess and 80.8% had resolved major comorbidities at 1 yr. According to the Moorehead-Ardelt QoL score, there were major improvements in employment and self-esteem in 89% and 87% of patients, respectively, and improvements in physical activity, sexual and social relationships. According to the total mean BAROS score, the outcome was considered “very good”. Conclusion: NHP and BAROS questionnaires appear to be useful and easily applicable tools to assess the QoL of obese patients.

Early and late skin reactions to radiotherapy for breast cancer and their correlation with radiation-induced DNA damage in lymphocytes

INTRODUCTION Radiotherapy outcomes might be further improved by a greater understanding of the individual variations in normal tissue reactions that determine tolerance. Most published studies on radiation toxicity have been performed retrospectively. Our prospective study was launched in 1996 to measure the in vitro radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes before treatment with radical radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer, and to assess the early and the late radiation skin side effects in the same group of patients. We prospectively recruited consecutive breast cancer patients receiving radiation therapy after breast surgery. To evaluate whether early and late side effects of radiotherapy can be predicted by the assay, a study was conducted of the association between the results of in vitro radiosensitivity tests and acute and late adverse radiation effects. METHODS Intrinsic molecular radiosensitivity was measured by using an initial radiation-induced DNA damage assay on lymphocytes obtained from breast cancer patients before radiotherapy. Acute reactions were assessed in 108 of these patients on the last treatment day. Late morbidity was assessed after 7 years of follow-up in some of these patients. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) morbidity score system was used for both assessments. RESULTS Radiosensitivity values obtained using the in vitro test showed no relation with the acute or late adverse skin reactions observed. There was no evidence of a relation between acute and late normal tissue reactions assessed in the same patients. A positive relation was found between the treatment volume and both early and late side effects. CONCLUSION After radiation treatment, a number of cells containing major changes can have a long survival and disappear very slowly, becoming a chronic focus of immunological system stimulation. This stimulation can produce, in a stochastic manner, late radiation-related adverse effects of varying severity. Further research is warranted to identify the major determinants of normal tissue radiation response to make it possible to individualize treatments and improve the outcome of radiotherapy in cancer patients.

Tumor architecture exerts no bias on nuclear grading in breast cancer diagnosis.

We recently reported that nuclear grading in prostate cancer is subject to a strong confirmation bias induced by the tumor architecture. We now wondered whether a similar bias governs nuclear grading in breast carcinoma. An unannounced test was performed at a pathology conference. Pathologists were asked to grade nuclei in a PowerPoint presentation. Circular high power fields of 27 invasive ductal carcinomas were shown, superimposed over low power background images of either tubule-rich or tubule-poor carcinomas. We found (a) that diagnostic reproducibility of nuclear grades was poor to moderate (weighed kappa values between 0.07 and 0.54, 27 cases, 44 graders), but (b) that nuclear grades were not affected by the tumor architecture. We speculate that the categorized grading in breast cancer, separating tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism, and mitotic figure counts in a combined three tier score, prevents the bias that architecture exerts on nuclear grades in less well-controlled situations.

Assessment of recent HIV-1 infection by a line immunoassay for HIV-1/2 confirmation.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the number of recent HIV infections is important for epidemiologic surveillance. Over the past decade approaches have been developed to estimate this number by testing HIV-seropositive specimens with assays that discriminate the lower concentration and avidity of HIV antibodies in early infection. We have investigated whether this "recency" information can also be gained from an HIV confirmatory assay. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The ability of a line immunoassay (INNO-LIA HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) to distinguish recent from older HIV-1 infection was evaluated in comparison with the Calypte HIV-1 BED Incidence enzyme immunoassay (BED-EIA). Both tests were conducted prospectively in all HIV infections newly diagnosed in Switzerland from July 2005 to June 2006. Clinical and laboratory information indicative of recent or older infection was obtained from physicians at the time of HIV diagnosis and used as the reference standard. BED-EIA and various recency algorithms utilizing the antibody reaction to INNO-LIA's five HIV-1 antigen bands were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. A total of 765 HIV-1 infections, 748 (97.8%) with complete test results, were newly diagnosed during the study. A negative or indeterminate HIV antibody assay at diagnosis, symptoms of primary HIV infection, or a negative HIV test during the past 12 mo classified 195 infections (26.1%) as recent (< or = 12 mo). Symptoms of CDC stages B or C classified 161 infections as older (21.5%), and 392 patients with no symptoms remained unclassified. BED-EIA ruled 65% of the 195 recent infections as recent and 80% of the 161 older infections as older. Two INNO-LIA algorithms showed 50% and 40% sensitivity combined with 95% and 99% specificity, respectively. Estimation of recent infection in the entire study population, based on actual results of the three tests and adjusted for a test's sensitivity and specificity, yielded 37% for BED-EIA compared to 35% and 33% for the two INNO-LIA algorithms. Window-based estimation with BED-EIA yielded 41% (95% confidence interval 36%-46%). CONCLUSIONS: Recency information can be extracted from INNO-LIA-based confirmatory testing at no additional costs. This method should improve epidemiologic surveillance in countries that routinely use INNO-LIA for HIV confirmation.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Extracellular tumor-related mRNA in plasma of lymphoma patients and survival implications.

BACKGROUND We studied anomalous extracellular mRNAs in plasma from patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and their survival implications. mRNAs studied have been reported in the literature as markers of poor (BCL2, CCND2, MYC) and favorable outcome (LMO2, BCL6, FN1) in tumors. These markers were also analyzed in lymphoma tissues to test possible associations with their presence in plasma. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS mRNA from 42 plasma samples and 12 tumors from patients with DLBCL was analyzed by real-time PCR. Samples post-treatment were studied. The immunohistochemistry of BCL2 and BCL6 was defined. Presence of circulating tumor cells was determined by analyzing the clonality of the immunoglobulin heavy-chain genes by PCR. In DLBCL, MYC mRNA was associated with short overall survival. mRNA targets with unfavorable outcome in tumors were associated with characteristics indicative of poor prognosis, with partial treatment response and with short progression-free survival in patients with complete response. In patients with low IPI score, unfavorable mRNA targets were related to shorter overall survival, partial response, high LDH levels and death. mRNA disappeared in post-treatment samples of patients with complete response, and persisted in those with partial response or death. No associations were found between circulating tumor cells and plasma mRNA. Absence of BCL6 protein in tumors was associated with presence of unfavorable plasma mRNA. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Through a non-invasive procedure, tumor-derived mRNAs can be obtained in plasma. mRNA detected in plasma did not proceed from circulating tumor cells. In our study, unfavorable targets in plasma were associated with poor prognosis in B-cell lymphomas, mainly MYC mRNA. Moreover, the unfavorable targets in plasma could help us to classify patients with poor outcome within the good prognosis group according to IPI.