Combined exposure to multiple mycotoxins in food: are we ready for risk assessment and risk management?

It is nowadays recognized that the risk of human co-exposure to multiple mycotoxins is real. In the last years, a number of studies have approached the issue of co-exposure and the best way to develop a more precise and realistic assessment. Likewise, the growing concern about the combined effects of mycotoxins and their potential impact on human health has been reflected by the increasing number of toxicological studies on the combined toxicity of these compounds. Nevertheless, risk assessment of these toxins, still follows the conventional paradigm of single exposure and single effects, incorporating only the possibility of additivity but not taking into account the complex dynamics associated to interactions between different mycotoxins or between mycotoxins and other food contaminants. Considering that risk assessment is intimately related to the establishment of regulatory guidelines, once the risk assessment is completed, an effort to reduce or manage the risk should be followed to protect public health. Risk assessment of combined human exposure to multiple mycotoxins thus poses several challenges to scientists, risk assessors and risk managers and opens new avenues for research. This presentation aims to give an overview of the different challenges posed by the likelihood of human co-exposure to mycotoxins and the possibility of interactive effects occurring after absorption, towards knowledge generation to support a more accurate human risk assessment and risk management. For this purpose, a physiologically-based framework that includes knowledge on the bioaccessibility, toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics of multiple toxins is proposed. Regarding exposure assessment, the need of harmonized food consumption data, availability of multianalyte methods for mycotoxin quantification, management of left-censored data and use of probabilistic models will be highlight, in order to develop a more precise and realistic exposure assessment. On the other hand, the application of predictive mathematical models to estimate mycotoxins’ combined effects from in vitro toxicity studies will be also discussed. Results from a recent Portuguese project aimed at exploring the toxic effects of mixtures of mycotoxins in infant foods and their potential health impact will be presented as a case study, illustrating the different aspects of risk assessment highlighted in this presentation. Further studies on hazard and exposure assessment of multiple mycotoxins, using harmonized approaches and methodologies, will be crucial towards an improvement in data quality and contributing to holistic risk assessment and risk management strategies for multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs.

Resilience and Urban Risk Management

International audience

French good practice guidelines for management of the risk of low back pain among workers exposed to manual material handling: Hierarchical strategy of risk assessment of work situations

International audience

An ontology for risk management of digital collections

Maintaining accessibility to and understanding of digital information over time is a complex challenge that often requires contributions and interventions from a variety of individuals and organizations. The processes of preservation planning and evaluation are fundamentally implicit and share similar complexity. Both demand comprehensive knowledge and understanding of every aspect of to-be-preserved content and the contexts within which preservation is undertaken. Consequently, means are required for the identification, documentation and association of those properties of data, representation and management mechanisms that in combination lend value, facilitate interaction and influence the preservation process. These properties may be almost limitless in terms of diversity, but are integral to the establishment of classes of risk exposure, and the planning and deployment of appropriate preservation strategies. We explore several research objectives within the course of this thesis. Our main objective is the conception of an ontology for risk management of digital collections. Incorporated within this are our aims to survey the contexts within which preservation has been undertaken successfully, the development of an appropriate methodology for risk management, the evaluation of existing preservation evaluation approaches and metrics, the structuring of best practice knowledge and lastly the demonstration of a range of tools that utilise our findings. We describe a mixed methodology that uses interview and survey, extensive content analysis, practical case study and iterative software and ontology development. We build on a robust foundation, the development of the Digital Repository Audit Method Based on Risk Assessment. We summarise the extent of the challenge facing the digital preservation community (and by extension users and creators of digital materials from many disciplines and operational contexts) and present the case for a comprehensive and extensible knowledge base of best practice. These challenges are manifested in the scale of data growth, the increasing complexity and the increasing onus on communities with no formal training to offer assurances of data management and sustainability. These collectively imply a challenge that demands an intuitive and adaptable means of evaluating digital preservation efforts. The need for individuals and organisations to validate the legitimacy of their own efforts is particularly prioritised. We introduce our approach, based on risk management. Risk is an expression of the likelihood of a negative outcome, and an expression of the impact of such an occurrence. We describe how risk management may be considered synonymous with preservation activity, a persistent effort to negate the dangers posed to information availability, usability and sustainability. Risk can be characterised according to associated goals, activities, responsibilities and policies in terms of both their manifestation and mitigation. They have the capacity to be deconstructed into their atomic units and responsibility for their resolution delegated appropriately. We continue to describe how the manifestation of risks typically spans an entire organisational environment, and as the focus of our analysis risk safeguards against omissions that may occur when pursuing functional, departmental or role-based assessment. We discuss the importance of relating risk-factors, through the risks themselves or associated system elements. To do so will yield the preservation best-practice knowledge base that is conspicuously lacking within the international digital preservation community. We present as research outcomes an encapsulation of preservation practice (and explicitly defined best practice) as a series of case studies, in turn distilled into atomic, related information elements. We conduct our analyses in the formal evaluation of memory institutions in the UK, US and continental Europe. Furthermore we showcase a series of applications that use the fruits of this research as their intellectual foundation. Finally we document our results in a range of technical reports and conference and journal articles. We present evidence of preservation approaches and infrastructures from a series of case studies conducted in a range of international preservation environments. We then aggregate this into a linked data structure entitled PORRO, an ontology relating preservation repository, object and risk characteristics, intended to support preservation decision making and evaluation. The methodology leading to this ontology is outlined, and lessons are exposed by revisiting legacy studies and exposing the resource and associated applications to evaluation by the digital preservation community.

Analysis of personality traits as a risk factor in crash related trauma.

Background: Due to increasing stress, individual personality traits are becoming a significant contributor to CRT (Crash Related Trauma). In the present study, we hypothesized that there will be no difference in personality characteristics of CRT patients and control subjects and there will be no association between trauma and personality characteristics of CRT patients. Method: A total of 119 cases and 112 controls of age >18 years were selected as per criteria decided. After obtaining ethical clearance, patients presenting to the emergency orthopedic unit were included in the study. After primary management all enrolled subjects were assessed by ICD 10 module screening questionnaire and analyzed for nine personality traits, subject to written informed consent. Results: Of all the cases enrolled 82.35% were males. Impulsive personality trait is found in 84.78% (39/46) cases. There were 46 motorcyclists out of 119 cases enrolled. Most of the personality traits showed a statistical significant association (p < 0.0003) with CRT. Conclusion: Majority of CRT victims attending orthopedic emergency unit at trauma center had impulsive and histrionic personality characteristics which accounted for 84.78% and 82.61% cases respectively. These traits showed a statistical significant association with CRT.

Constraints to the efficacy of risk management process in entrepreneurial companies

This paper highlights potential factors that affect the degree of efficacy of a formal risk management framework in entrepreneurial organisations. The understanding of entrepreneur’s self-schemas, entrepreneurial organisational culture and working environment is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of a risk management process. This research pointed out two main issues: i) the entrepreneurial decision making process with presence of biases and heuristics in judgement under uncertainty; and ii) the entrepreneurial organisational context that might create constraints to the implementation of a risk management framework.

Risk management for mathematical optimization under uncertainty

We present a general multistage stochastic mixed 0-1 problem where the uncertainty appears everywhere in the objective function, constraints matrix and right-hand-side. The uncertainty is represented by a scenario tree that can be a symmetric or a nonsymmetric one. The stochastic model is converted in a mixed 0-1 Deterministic Equivalent Model in compact representation. Due to the difficulty of the problem, the solution offered by the stochastic model has been traditionally obtained by optimizing the objective function expected value (i.e., mean) over the scenarios, usually, along a time horizon. This approach (so named risk neutral) has the inconvenience of providing a solution that ignores the variance of the objective value of the scenarios and, so, the occurrence of scenarios with an objective value below the expected one. Alternatively, we present several approaches for risk averse management, namely, a scenario immunization strategy, the optimization of the well known Value-at-Risk (VaR) and several variants of the Conditional Value-at-Risk strategies, the optimization of the expected mean minus the weighted probability of having a "bad" scenario to occur for the given solution provided by the model, the optimization of the objective function expected value subject to stochastic dominance constraints (SDC) for a set of profiles given by the pairs of threshold objective values and either bounds on the probability of not reaching the thresholds or the expected shortfall over them, and the optimization of a mixture of the VaR and SDC strategies.

Risk management e ambiente controlo mitigadores. Negócio da banca

A identidade de uma Instituição é a imagem que lhe é associada pelo mercado e sociedade em geral, é o resultado do conjunto de princípios, valores e comportamentos exercidos pelos seus colaboradores e clientes, devendo aderir a elevados padrões de ética profissional e evitar situações suscetíveis de originar conflitos de interesse e fraude. Nos últimos anos várias situações têm vindo a público de posições menos claras por parte das organizações e dos seus colaboradores. Tal realidade pode ter diversas justificações, nomeadamente a atual crise económica e a crescente crise de valores existente na sociedade em geral. A necessidade de eficácia no cumprimento de objetivos extremamente exigentes com a maior eficiência dos cada vez mais reduzidos recursos exige dos responsáveis, ou de quem tem que tomar decisões, um maior conhecimento e saber no desempenho das suas atividades. A informação constitui, na atual realidade económica, um poderoso ativo para o exercício das suas funções, e em particular, para o apoio à sua tomada de decisão. As organizações com elevado grau de descentralização têm na Auditoria Interna um complemento indispensável, na medida em que pode ajudar na eliminação de desperdícios, simplificar tarefas, reduzir custos e minimizar riscos, constituindo uma função de apoio á gestão, sendo capaz de auxiliar em diversas áreas tais como: “corporate governance”, ética, gestão de risco, controlo interno e “compliance”, tecnologias de informação, qualidade e ambiente. Os procedimentos de auditoria são processados por pessoas, daí a importância do comportamento humano e da própria cultura organizacional. A essência de qualquer negócio são as pessoas, suas características, integridade moral, ética e competências pessoais e profissionais, no entanto os objetivos delineados regulam todo o seu “modus operandi”, com definição clara do “core business”.

Concepts about risk management in libraries : Notes for characterization

El presente trabajo revisa la bibliografía sobre gestión del riesgo (GRi) que ha aparecido en los últimos tiempos, intentando anclar sus nociones, recomendaciones, pautas y estándares al ámbito de las bibliotecas y centros de documentación e información. Se analiza su utilidad, realizando un balance sobre la bibliografía consultada, proveniente tanto de Argentina como de distintos países. Se concluye sobre la necesidad de aplicar los procesos y los estándares inherentes a la GRi a los de las unidades de información para evitar los peligros o las amenazas en distintos ámbitos tales como el financiero, comunicacional, tecnológico, humano, ambiental, entre otros

Reviewing the hedge funds literature II:hedge funds' returns and risk management characteristics

This paper summarizes the literature on hedge funds (HFs) developed over the last two decades, particularly that which relates to risk management characteristics (a companion piece investigates the managerial characteristics of HFs). It discusses the successes and the shortfalls to date in developing more sophisticated risk management frameworks and tools to measure and monitor HF risks, and the empirical evidence on the role of the HFs and their investment behaviour and risk management practices on the stability of the financial system. It also classifies the HF literature considering the most recent contributions and, particularly, the regulatory developments after the 2007 financial crisis.

Agent based risk patient management

This paper explores the role of information and communication technologies in managing risk and early discharge patients, and suggests innovative actions in the area of E-Health services. Treatments of chronic illnesses, or treatments of special needs such as cardiovascular diseases, are conducted in long-stay hospitals, and in some cases, in the homes of patients with a follow-up from primary care centre. The evolution of this model is following a clear trend: trying to reduce the time and the number of visits by patients to health centres and derive tasks, so far as possible, toward outpatient care. Also the number of Early Discharge Patients (EDP) is growing, thus permiting a saving in the resources of the care center. The adequacy of agent and mobile technologies is assessed in light of the particular requirements of health care applications. A software system architecture is outlined and discussed. The major contributions are: first, the conceptualization of multiple mobile and desktop devices as part of a single distributed computing system where software agents are being executed and interact from their remote locations. Second, the use of distributed decision making in multiagent systems, as a means to integrate remote evidence and knowledge obtained from data that is being collected and/or processed by distributed devices. The system will be applied to patients with cardiovascular or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Diseases (COPD) as well as to ambulatory surgery patients. The proposed system will allow to transmit the patient's location and some information about his/her illness to the hospital or care centre

Geometrical Methods in Multivariate Risk Management: Algorithms and Applications

This thesis builds a framework for evaluating downside risk from multivariate data via a special class of risk measures (RM). The peculiarity of the analysis lies in getting rid of strong data distributional assumptions and in orientation towards the most critical data in risk management: those with asymmetries and heavy tails. At the same time, under typical assumptions, such as the ellipticity of the data probability distribution, the conformity with classical methods is shown. The constructed class of RM is a multivariate generalization of the coherent distortion RM, which possess valuable properties for a risk manager. The design of the framework is twofold. The first part contains new computational geometry methods for the high-dimensional data. The developed algorithms demonstrate computability of geometrical concepts used for constructing the RM. These concepts bring visuality and simplify interpretation of the RM. The second part develops models for applying the framework to actual problems. The spectrum of applications varies from robust portfolio selection up to broader spheres, such as stochastic conic optimization with risk constraints or supervised machine learning.

Review of Managing the Fraud Risk in the Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP), Administered by the Department of Social Services

This review was initiated based upon allegations from multiple sources of possible fraud in the Disaster Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (D-SNAP) administered by the South Carolina Department of Social Services (SCDSS), which was implemented in response to the 10/3/2015 statewide flooding from Hurricane Joaquin. This review’s scope and objectives were: Assess SCDSS’s D-SNAP implementation for compliance with federal guidelines, with emphasis on fraud preventative controls; Assess the SCDSS’s post-disaster review and audit methodology for compliance with federal guidelines, with emphasis on understanding the fraud risks and resolution strategies; and Identify residual risk/suspected fraud not addressed through the SCDSS review and available opportunities to address.

Constraint-Informed Information Systems in Space Management Utilization

Declarative techniques such as Constraint Programming can be very effective in modeling and assisting management decisions. We present a method for managing university classrooms which extends the previous design of a Constraint-Informed Information System to generate the timetables while dealing with spatial resource optimization issues. We seek to maximize space utilization along two dimensions: classroom use and occupancy rates. While we want to maximize the room use rate, we still need to satisfy the soft constraints which model students’ and lecturers’ preferences. We present a constraint logic programming-based local search method which relies on an evaluation function that combines room utilization and timetable soft preferences. Based on this, we developed a tool which we applied to the improvement of classroom allocation in a University. Comparing the results to the current timetables obtained without optimizing space utilization, the initial versions of our tool manages to reach a 30% improvement in space utilization, while preserving the quality of the timetable, both for students and lecturers.