906 resultados para Risk Evaluation


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This article explores the struggle for legitimation associated with the attempt to define the risk of Bt cotton, a genetically modified crop, in Andhra Pradesh, India. Beck asserts that, given the uncertainty associated with risk society, efforts to define risk are creating the need for a new political culture. This article argues that this political culture emerges from attempts to legitimate power within risk definition. This is examined using critical discourse analysis on interview excerpts with key figures in the Bt cotton debate. Legitimation is explored using the categories of legitimation developed by Van Leeuwen. These are (a) authorisation; (b) moral evaluation; (c) rationalisation; and (d) mythopoesis. The analysis highlights that the political culture which emerges in response to risk society is in a state of constant flux and contingent upon the ongoing struggle for legitimation with regard to the definition of risk.

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Introduction: Alterations in the musculoskeletal system, especially in the lower limbs, limit physical activity and affect balance and walking. Postural impairments in haemophilic preteens could increase the risk of bleeding events and deteriorate the physical condition, promoting the progression of haemophilic arthropathy. Aim: This study aims to evaluate static postural balance in haemophilic children, assessed by means of the Wii Balance Board® (WBB). Methods: Nineteen children with haemophilia and 19 without haemophilia aged 9-10 years, have participated in this study. Postural balance was assessed by performing four tests, each one lasting 15 s: bipodal eyes open (BEO), bipodal eyes closed (BEC), monopodal dominant leg (MD) and monopodal non-dominant leg (MND). Two balance indices, standard deviation of amplitude (SDA) and standard deviation of velocity (SDV) were calculated in the anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) directions. Results: Index values were higher in haemophilic group and the differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05) in only six (SDAAP in BEO, BEC and MD conditions, SDAML in BEO, SDVAP in BEO and SDVML in MND condition) of 16 parameters analysed. Conclusion: Tests performed indicate a poorer static postural balance in the haemophilic cohort compared to the control group. Accordingly, physiotherapy programmes, physical activity and sports should be designed to improve the postural balance with the aim of preventing joint deterioration and improving quality of life. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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This report documents the expansion of 4K and expenditure of funds in Fiscal Years 2014-15 and 2015-16; provides 2015-16 projections for the number of at-risk four-year-olds in each school district and the number of at-risk four-year-olds served in a publicly funded program using available information; details the results of the CIRCLE assessment, which was administered to children in publicly-funded four-year-old (4K) and five-year-old (5K) kindergarten during the 2014-15 school year; describes the four language and literacy assessments that measure 4K and 5K students’ abilities during the 2015-16 school year; and discusses how 4K quality can be defined and the important role of teacher-child instructional interactions in assessing quality of publicly-funded 4K.

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Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

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The objectives of this study are to investigate the association between cardiorespiratory fitness and cardiovascular risk factors in schoolchildren and to evaluate the degree of association between overall and abdominal adiposity and cardiorespiratory fitness. A total of 1,875 children and adolescents attending public schools in Bogota, Colombia (56.2% girls; age range of 9–17.9 years). A cardiovascular risk score (Z-score) was calculated and participants were divided into tertiles according to low and high levels of overall (sum of the skinfold thicknesses) and abdominal adiposity. Schoolchildren with a high level of overall adiposity demonstrated significant differences in seven of the 10 variables analyzed (i.e. systolic and diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, triglycerides/HDL-c ratio, total cholesterol, glucose and cardiovascular risk score). Schoolchildren with high levels of both overall and abdominal adiposity and low cardiorespiratory fitness had the least favorable cardiovascular risk factors score. These findings may be relevant to health promotion in Colombian youth.

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Background and aims(s): The study evaluated the contribution of coping strategies, based on the Toulousiane conceptualization of coping, to the prediction of suicide risk and tested the moderating effect of gender, controlling for depressive symptoms. Method: A two-time data collection design was used. A community sample of 195 adults (91 men and 104 women) ranging in age from 19 to 65 years and living in several Portuguese regions, mostly in Alentejo, participated in this research. Results: Gender, depressive symptoms, control, and withdrawal and conversion significantly predicted suicide risk and gender interacted with control, withdrawal and conversion, and social distraction in the prediction of suicide risk. Coping predicted suicide risk only for women. Conclusions: Results have important implications for assessment and intervention with suicide at-risk individuals. In particular,the evaluation and development of coping skills is indicated as a goal for therapists having suicide at-risk women as clients.

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Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a worldwide cereal disease caused by a complex of Fusarium species resulting in high yield losses, reduction in quality and mycotoxin contamination of grain. A shift in Fusarium head blight community has been observed worldwide. The present work aimed to analyze the evolution of Italian FHB community focusing the attention on species considered “secondary” in the past years such as members of Fusarium tricinctum species complex (FTSC) and F. proliferatum. The first goal of the study was to analyze the fungal community associated with Italian durum wheat in two different years. F. poae, F. avenaceum and F. proliferatum were the main species detected on Italian durum kernels. A variable mycotoxins contamination was observed in the analyzed samples. Considering, the increased incidence of F. avenaceum and other members of FTSC in Italian FHB, the second aim was to investigate genetic diversity among the FTSC and estimate the mycotoxin risk related to these species. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that F. avenaceum (FTSC 4) was the most common species in Italy, followed by an unnamed Fusarium sp., F. tricinctum and F. acuminatum. In addition to these four phylospecies, five other F. tricinctum clade species were sampled. These included strains of four newly discovered species (Fusarium spp. FTSC 11, 13, 14, 15) and F. iranicum (FTSC 6). Most isolates tested for mycotoxin production on rice cultures were able to produce quantitative levels of enniatins and moniliformin. In addition, a preliminary study was conducted to evaluate the ability of a selected F. proliferatum isolate to produce fumonisins on wheat in open field and under natural climatic conditions. The three analogues (FB1, FB2 and FB3) were quantified by HPLC-FLD analysis on kernels, chaff and rachis. Fumonisins were detected in all the three investigated fractions without significant differences.

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Follicular lymphoma (FL) is a B cell neoplasm, composed of follicle center cells, that accounts for about 20% of all lymphomas, with the highest incidence reported in the USA and western Europe. FL has been considered a virtually incurable disease, with a high response rate alternated with frequent post-therapy relapses or progression towards more aggressive lymphomas. Due to the extreme variability in outcome, many efforts were made to predict prognosis, the need for therapy, and the likelihood of evolution. Even if clinical scores turned out to be robust and easy to use in clinical practice for patient risk stratification, marked heterogeneity in outcome remains within each group and further insights into the biology of FL are needed. The genome-wide approach underscored the pivotal role of the FL microenvironment in the evolution of the disease. In 2004, a landmark study by Dave et al. first described the microenvironment impact on tumor biology. By gene expression profiling they identified two different immune response signatures, involving T-cells and macrophages which seemed to independently predict FL outcome, but their exact is not completely understood and different studies led to variable results. Subsequently, many workgroups identified in amount and distribution pattern of these different cell subsets features which can impact prognosis, this leading to hypothesizing the use of these parameters as surrogate markers of the molecular signature. We aimed to assess the possible contributions of micro-environmental components to FL transformation or progression, its relevance as a prognostic/predictive tool, and its potential role as an innovative therapeutic target. We used immunohistochemical techniques, focusing specifically on macrophages and T-cells subsets, and then found correlations between the presence, proportions, and distribution of these reactive cells and the clinical outcomes leading to the future development of a reliable tool for upfront risk stratification of patients affected by FL.

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The topic of seismic loss assessment not only incorporates many aspects of the earthquake engineering, but also entails social factors, public policies and business interests. Because of its multidisciplinary character, this process may be complex to challenge, and sound discouraging to neophytes. In this context, there is an increasing need of deriving simplified methodologies to streamline the process and provide tools for decision-makers and practitioners. This dissertation investigates different possible applications both in the area of modelling of seismic losses, both in the analysis of observational seismic data. Regarding the first topic, the PRESSAFE-disp method is proposed for the fast evaluation of the fragility curves of precast reinforced-concrete (RC) structures. Hence, a direct application of the method to the productive area of San Felice is studied to assess the number of collapses under a specific seismic scenario. In particular, with reference to the 2012 events, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined. The outcomes of the framework are promising, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. Furthermore, a simplified displacement-based methodology is outlined to estimate different loss performance metrics for the decision-making phase of the seismic retrofit of a single RC building. The aim is to evaluate the seismic performance of different retrofit options, for a comparative analysis of their effectiveness and the convenience. Finally, a contribution to the analysis of the observational data is presented in the last part of the dissertation. A specific database of losses of precast RC buildings damaged by the 2012 Earthquake is created. A statistical analysis is performed, allowing deriving several consequence functions. The outcomes presented may be implemented in probabilistic seismic risk assessments to forecast the losses at the large scale. Furthermore, these may be adopted to establish retrofit policies to prevent and reduce the consequences of future earthquakes in industrial areas.

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This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disease, characterized by the impairment of mnesic and cognitive functions, that represents the most frequent type of dementia in older people worldwide. Aging is the most important risk factor for the sporadic form of the pathology and it is associated to the progressive impairment of the proteostasis network. The endoplasmic reticulum (ER), the main cellular actor involved in proteostasis, appears significantly compromised in AD due to the accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ) protein and phosphorylated-tau protein. Increasing proteins misfolding activates a specific cellular response known as Unfolded Protein response (UPR) which orchestrates the recovery of ER function. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of UPR and aging process in a murine model of AD induced by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42 oligomers at 3 or 18 months. The oligomers injection in aged animals caused the increased of memory impairment, oxidative stress, and the depletion of glutathione reserve. Furthermore, the RNA-sequencing analysis was performed and the bioinformatic analysis showed the enrichment of several pathways involved in neurodegeneration and protein regulations. The following analysis highlighted the significant dysregulation of the three branches of the UPR, the protein kinase RNA-like ER kinase (PERK), inositol-requiring protein 1α (IRE1α) and activating transcription factor 6 (ATF-6). In turn, ER stress affected the PI3K/Akt/Gsk3β and MAPK/ERK pathways, highlighting Mapkapk5 as a potential marker of the neurodegenerative process, which regulation could lead to the definition of new pharmacological and neuroprotective strategies to counteract AD.

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The advent of the hydrogen economy has already been predicted but it does not represent a tangible reality yet. However, decarbonizing the global economy and particularly the energy sector is vital to limit global warming and reduce the incumbent environmental problems. Hydrogen is a promising zero-emission fuel that could replace traditional fossil fuels, playing a key role in the transition towards a more sustainable economy. At present, hydrogen-powered cars are already spread worldwide and the deployment of hydrogen buses seems to be the next goal in the decarbonization process of the transportation sector. In contrast with the undeniable benefits introduced by the use of this alternative fuel, given its hazardous properties, safety is a topic of high concern. The present study concerns the evaluation of the risks linked to the on board storage of hydrogen on hydrogen-powered buses in case of road accident. Currently, hydrogen can be stored on board as a high-pressure gas, as a cryogenic liquid or in cryo-compressed form. Those solutions are compared from a safety point of view. First, the final accidental scenarios that could follow the release of the fuel in case of a road crash are pointed out. Secondly, threshold values for the hazardous effects of each scenario are fixed and the corresponding damage distances are calculated thanks to the use of the software PHAST 8.4. Finally, indicators are quantified to compare the different options. Results are discussed to find out the safer solution and to evaluate whether the replacement of fossil fuels with hydrogen introduces new safety issues.

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The radiopacity of esthetic root canal posts may impair the assessment of their fit to the root canal when using radiographic images. This study determined in vitro the radiographic density of esthetic root canal posts using digital images. Thirty-six roots of human maxillary canines were assigned to six groups (N=6 per group): Reforpost (RP); Aestheti-Plus (AP); Reforpost MIX (RPM); D.T. Light Post (LP); Reforpost Radiopaque (RPR); and White Post DC (WP). Standardized digital images of the posts were obtained in different conditions: outside the root canal, inside the canal before and after cementation using luting material, and with a tissue simulator. Analysis of variance was used to compare the radiopacity mean values among the posts outside the root canal and among the posts under the other conditions, and the t unpaired test to compare the radiopacity between the posts and the dentin, and between the posts and the root canal space. There was no statistically significant difference in radiopacity between RP and RPM, and LP and WP. AP posts showed radiopacity values significantly lower than those for dentin. No statistically significant difference was found between posts (RP and AP) and the root canal space. A statistically significant difference was observed between the luted and non-luted posts; additionally, luted posts with and without tissue simulator showed no significant differences. Most of the cement-luted posts analyzed in this study were distinguishable from the density of adjacent dentin surfaces, allowing radiographic confirmation of the fit of the post in the canal. The success of using esthetic root canal posts depends mainly on the fit of the post within the canal.[1] The radiopacity of a post allows for radiographic imaging to be used to determine the fit, an important factor in a clinical perspective.

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Endoscopic endonasal transsphenoidal surgery has gained increasing acceptance by otolaryngologists and neurosurgeons. In many centers throughout the world, this technique is now routinely used for the same indications as conventional microsurgical technique for pituitary tumors. To present a surgical experience of consecutive endoscopic endonasal trans-sphenoidal resections of pituitary adenomas. In this study, consecutive patients with pituitary adenomas submitted to endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery were evaluated regarding the rate of residual tumor, functional remission, symptoms relief, complications, and tumor size. Forty-seven consecutive patients were evaluated; 17 had functioning adenomas, seven had GH producing tumors, five had Cushing's disease, and five had prolactinomas. Of the functioning adenomas, 12 were macroadenomas and five were microadenomas; 30 cases were non-functioning macroadenomas. Of the patients with functioning adenomas, 87% improved. 85% of the patients with visual deficits related to optic nerve compression progressed over time. Most of the patients with complaints of headaches improved (76%). Surgical complications occurred in 10% of patients, which included with two carotid lesions, two cerebrospinal fluid leaks, and one death of a patient with a previous history of complications. Endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery is a feasible technique, yielding good surgical and functional outcomes, and low morbidity.