Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Papillary urothelial neoplasm of low malignant potential: reliability of diagnosis and outcome

OBJECTIVE To determine the ability of pathologists to reproducibly diagnose a newly defined lesion, i.e. the papillary urothelial neoplasm of low malignant potential (PUNLMP) using the published criteria, defined by the 1998 World Health Organisation/International Society of Urological Pathology (WHO/ISUP) classification system; in addition, debate remains about the clinical behaviour of these lesions, thus the rates of recurrence and progression of PUNLMP lesions were assessed and compared with low-grade papillary urothelial carcinomas (LG-PUC) and high-grade (HG-PUC) over a 10-year follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS Forty-nine cases of superficial bladder cancer (G1-3 pTa) representing an initial diagnosis of transitional cell carcinoma made in 1990 were identified and re-graded using the 1998 WHO/ISUP classification by two pathologists. Inter-observer agreement was assessed using Cohen weighted kappa statistics. After reclassification the clinical follow-up was reviewed retrospectively, and episodes of recurrence and progression recorded. RESULTS The inter-observer agreement was moderate, regardless of whether one (kappa 0.45) or two (kappa 0.60) pathologists were used to grade these lesions. Re-classification identified 12 PUNLMP, 28 LG-PUC and nine HG-PUC. PUNLMP lesions recurred in 25% (3/12) of cases; no progression was documented. Recurrence rates were 75% (21/28) and 67% (6/9) for LG- and HG-PUC, respectively, and progression rates were 4% (1/28) and 22% (2/9). CONCLUSION The 1998 WHO/ISUP classification of urothelial neoplasms can be reproducibly applied by pathologists, with a moderate level of agreement. There is evidence that PUNLMP lesions have a more indolent clinical behaviour than urothelial carcinomas. However, the risk of recurrence and progression remains, and clinical monitoring of these patients is important.

Behaviour state analysis in Rett syndrome: Continuous data reliability measurement

Awareness of optimal behaviour states of children with profound intellectual disability has been reported in the literature as a potentially useful tool for planning intervention within this population. Some arguments have been raised, however, which question the reliability and validity of previously published work on behaviour state analysis. This article sheds light on the debate by presenting two stages of a study of behaviour state analysis for eight girls with Rett syndrome. The results support Mudford, Hogg, and Roberts' (1997, 1999) concerns with the pooling of participant data. The results of Stage 2 also suggest, however, that most categories of behaviour state can be reliably distinguished once definitions of behaviours for each state are clearly defined.

Randomised controlled trial of health assessments for older Australian veterans and war widows

Objective: To assess the effect of home-based health assessments for older Australians on health-related quality of life, hospital and nursing home admissions, and death. Design: Randomised controlled trial of the effect of health assessments over 3 years. Participants and setting: 1569 community-living veterans and war widows receiving full benefits from the Department of Veterans' Affairs and aged 70 years or over were randomly selected in 1997 from 10 regions of New South Wales and Queensland and randomly allocated to receive either usual care (n = 627) or health assessments (n = 942). Intervention: Annual or 6-monthly home-based health assessments by health professionals, with telephone follow-up, and written report to a nominated general practitioner. Main outcome measures: Differences in health-related quality of life, admission to hospital and nursing home, and death over 3 years of follow-up. Results: 3-year follow-up interviews were conducted for 1031 participants. Intervention-group participants who remained in the study reported higher quality of life than control-group participants (difference in Physical Component Summary score, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.05-1.76; difference in Mental Component Summary score, 1.36; 95% CI, 0.40-2.32). There was no significant difference in the probability of hospital admission or death between intervention and control groups over the study period. Significantly more participants in the intervention group were admitted to nursing homes compared with the control group (30 v 7; P < 0.01). Conclusions: Health assessments for older people may have small positive effects on quality of life for those who remain resident in the community, but do not prevent deaths. Assessments may increase the probability of nursing-home placement.

The concurrent validity and test-retest reliability of a visuospatial working memory task

To determine whether the visuospatial n-back working memory task is a reliable and valid measure of cognitive processes believed to underlie intelligence, this study compared the reaction times and accuracy of perforniance of 70 participants, with performance on the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). Testing was conducted over two sessions separated by 1 week. Participants completed the MAB during the second test session. Moderate testretest reliability for percentage accuracy scores was found across the four levels of the n-back task, whilst reaction times were highly reliable. Furthermore, participants' performance on the MAB was negatively correlated with accuracy of performance at the easier levels of the n-back task and positively correlated with accuracy of performance at the harder task levels. These findings confirm previous research examining the cognitive basis of intelligence, and suggest that intelligence is the product of faster speed of information processing, as well as superior working memory capacity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The HIPASS catalogue - II. Completeness reliability and parameter accuracy

The H I Parkes All Sky Survey (HIPASS) is a blind extragalactic H I 21-cm emission-line survey covering the whole southern sky from declination -90degrees to +25degrees. The HIPASS catalogue (HICAT), containing 4315 H I-selected galaxies from the region south of declination +2degrees, is presented in Meyer et al. (Paper I). This paper describes in detail the completeness and reliability of HICAT, which are calculated from the recovery rate of synthetic sources and follow-up observations, respectively. HICAT is found to be 99 per cent complete at a peak flux of 84 mJy and an integrated flux of 9.4 Jy km. s(-1). The overall reliability is 95 per cent, but rises to 99 per cent for sources with peak fluxes >58 mJy or integrated flux >8.2 Jy km s(-1). Expressions are derived for the uncertainties on the most important HICAT parameters: peak flux, integrated flux, velocity width and recessional velocity. The errors on HICAT parameters are dominated by the noise in the HIPASS data, rather than by the parametrization procedure.

Screening for physical activity in family practice - Evaluation of two brief assessment tools

Background: Physical activity (PA) is relevant to the prevention and management of many health conditions in family practice. There is a need for an efficient, reliable, and valid assessment tool to identify patients in need of PA interventions. Methods: Twenty-eight family physicians in three Australian cities assessed the PA of their adult patients during 2004 using either a two- (2Q) or three-question (3Q) assessment. This was administered again approximately 3 days later to evaluate test-retest reliability. Concurrent validity was evaluated by measuring agreement with the Active Australia Questionnaire, and criterion validity by comparison with 7-day Computer Science Applications, Inc. (CSA) accelerometer counts. Results: A total of 509 patients participated, with 428 (84%) completing a repeat assessment, and 415 (82%) accelerometer monitoring. The brief assessments had moderate test-retest reliability (2Q k = 58.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 47.2-68.8%; 3Q k = 55.6%, 95% CI = 43.8-67.4%); fair to moderate concurrent validity (2Q k = 46.7%, 95% CI = 35.657.9%; 3Q k = 38.7%, 95% CI = 26.4-51.1%); and poor to fair criterion validity (2Q k = 18.2%, 95% CI = 3.9-32.6%; 3Q k = 24.3%, 95% CI = 11.6-36.9%) for identifying patients as sufficiently active. A four-level scale of PA derived from the PA assessments was significantly correlated with accelerometer minutes (2Q rho = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.28-0.49; 3Q rho = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.18-0.43). Physicians reported that the assessments took I to 2 minutes to complete. Conclusions: Both PA assessments were feasible to use in family practice, and were suitable for identifying the least active patients. The 2Q assessment was preferred by clinicians and may be most appropriate for dissemination.

A rapid dietary assessment tool to determine intake of folate was developed and validated

Background and Objective: Estimates of dietary folate intake are currently of considerable interest, but no rapid tools are available to assess dietary intake of folate that are well suited to everyday health promotion activities, We developed and tested the reliability and validity of two prototypes of a rapid dietary assessment tool (a folate intake tool, FIT) to determine dietary intake of folate. Study Design and Setting: Five hundred and sixty eight men and women aged 33-93 years from Perth, Western Australia. Completed one of the two prototypes of the tool and gave a fasting blood sample for measurement of serum folate. A subset (n - 277) of participants completed the same tool on a second occasion 3-6 weeks later. Results: The Pearson correlations (r) between folate score from the tool and serum folate were moderately high for both prototypes (FIT-A r = 0.54-, FIT-B r = 0.49). The folate scores for the two prototypes were similar on repeat testing and correlated strongly (FIT-A r = 0.75; FIT-B r = 0.68). Conclusions: The rapid dietary assessment tool described here, FIT, provides a valid and reliable measurement of dietary intake of folate for both men and women. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability and validity of a brief physical activity assessment for use by family doctors

Objective: To evaluate the reliability and validity of a brief physical activity assessment tool suitable for doctors to use to identify inactive patients in the primary care setting. Methods: Volunteer family doctors (n = 8) screened consenting patients (n = 75) for physical activity participation using a brief physical activity assessment tool. Inter-rater reliability was assessed within one week (n = 71). Validity was assessed against an objective physical activity monitor (computer science and applications accelerometer; n = 42). Results: The brief physical activity assessment tool produced repeatable estimates of sufficient total physical activity, correctly classifying over 76% of cases (kappa 0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.72). The validity coefficient was reasonable (kappa 0.40, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.69), with good percentage agreement (71%). Conclusions: The brief physical activity assessment tool is a reliable instrument, with validity similar to that of more detailed self report measures of physical activity. It is a tool that can be used efficiently in routine primary healthcare services to identify insufficiently active patients who may need physical activity advice.

The cross-entropy method for network reliability estimation

Consider a network of unreliable links, modelling for example a communication network. Estimating the reliability of the network-expressed as the probability that certain nodes in the network are connected-is a computationally difficult task. In this paper we study how the Cross-Entropy method can be used to obtain more efficient network reliability estimation procedures. Three techniques of estimation are considered: Crude Monte Carlo and the more sophisticated Permutation Monte Carlo and Merge Process. We show that the Cross-Entropy method yields a speed-up over all three techniques.