Cognitive impairment in elderly medical inpatients: detection and associated six-month outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: The authors examined the relationship of cognitive impairment at hospital admission to 6-month outcome (hospital readmission, nursing home admission, and death) in a cohort of elderly medical inpatients. METHODS: A group of 401 medical inpatients age 75 and older underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment at hospital admission and were followed up for 6 months. Cognitive impairment was defined as a score <24 on the Mini-Mental State Exam. Detection was assessed through blinded review of discharge summary. Follow-up data were gathered from the centralized billing system (hospital and nursing home admissions) and from proxies (death). RESULTS: Cognitive impairment was present in 129 patients (32.3%). Only 48 (37.2%) were detected; these had more severe impairment than undetected cases. During follow-up, cognitive impairment, whether detected or not, was associated with death and nursing home admission. After adjustment for health, functional, and socioeconomic status, an independent association remained only for nursing home admission in subjects with detected impairment. Those with undetected impairment appeared to be at intermediate risk, but this relationship was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: In these elderly medical inpatients, cognitive impairment was frequent, rarely detected, and associated with nursing home admission during follow-up. Although this association was stronger in those with detected impairment, these results support the view that acute hospitalization presents an opportunity to better detect cognitive impairment in elderly patients and target further interventions to prevent adverse outcomes such as nursing home admission.

Genetic diversity and relationship in American and African oil palm as revealed by RFLP and AFLP molecular markers

The objective of this work was to evaluate the genetic diversity, its organization and the genetic relationships within oil palm (Elaeis oleifera (Kunth) Cortés, from America, and E. guineensis (Jacq.), from Africa) germplasm using Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP) and Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP). In complement to a previous RFLP study on 241 E. oleifera accessions, 38 E. guineensis accessions were analyzed using the same 37 cDNA probes. These accessions covered a large part of the geographical distribution areas of these species in America and Africa. In addition, AFLP analysis was performed on a sub-set of 40 accessions of E. oleifera and 22 of E. guineensis using three pairs of enzyme/primer combinations. Data were subjected to Factorial Analysis of Correspondence (FAC) and cluster analysis, with parameters of genetic diversity being also studied. Results appeared congruent between RFLP and AFLP. In the E. oleifera, AFLP confirmed the strong structure of genetic diversity revealed by RFLP, according to geographical origin of the studied material, with the identification of the same four distinct genetic groups: Brazil, French Guyana/Surinam, Peru, north of Colombia/Central America. Both markers revealed that genetic divergence between the two species is of the same magnitude as that among provenances of E. oleifera. This finding is in discrepancy with the supposed early tertiary separation of the two species.

Blood samples drawn for culture as a surrogate marker for case-mix adjustment of hospital antibiotic use

Résumé de l'étude La surveillance de la prescription des antibiotiques en milieu hospitalier est une des mesures recommandées pour prévenir l'émergence de bactéries résistantes. La consommation d'antibiotiques est généralement exprimée en termes de DDD (defined daily dose) rapporté au taux d'occupation (jours patients). Cette mesure ne tient cependant pas compte de la variation de la casuistique d'un service au cours du temps. La consommation d'antibiotiques est influencée par l'incidence des infections, qui peut être saisonnière ou varier selon les circonstances épidémiologiques, ainsi que par les habitudes des médecins en termes de prescription. Une échelle de mesure adaptée à ces paramètres est donc capitale pour rendre compte de la consommation d'antibiotiques au sein d'un service et identifier de possibles dérivations dans les habitudes de prescriptions. Nous avons émis l'hypothèse que le nombre de demandes d'hémocultures pouvait servir d'indicateur de la charge infectieuse d'un service. Une analyse préliminaire a permis d'établir une bonne relation entre ce paramètre et l'incidence d'événements infectieux en comparaison à d'autres paramètres testés (nombre de prélèvements microbiologiques provenant de sites stériles ou nombre total de prélèvements microbiologiques). Sur la base de cette hypothèse, nous avons analysé la consommation d'antibiotiques d'une unité de médecine générale (Service de Médecine Interne du CHUV) sur seize trimestres consécutifs en comparant deux échelles de mesures : la méthode standard en DDD par jours patients et une échelle ajustée à la charge infectieuse (DDD par nombre de demandes d'hémocultures). L'échelle ajustée aux hémocultures a permis d'identifier trois trimestres avec une consommation anormalement élevée qui n'avaient pas été classés comme tels par l'échelle standard (consommation dans les normes en DDD par jours patients). Une analyse détaillée d'un de ces trimestres a confirmé une incidence d'infections moins élevée en comparaison à un trimestre de référence (proche de la norme selon les deux échelles), alors que la corrélation entre infections et demandes d'hémocultures était similaire pour les deux périodes. De même, l'échelle ajustée ä la charge infectieuse a démontré une consommation dans la norme pour un trimestre avec une consommation en apparence trop élevée selon l'échelle standard en raison d'une incidence d'infections plus élevée pour cette période. Cette étude a donc permis une identification plus performante et plus précise de périodes avec des dérivations dans la pratique de la prescription des antibiotiques en utilisant une échelle de mesure ajustée à la charge infectieuse d'un service au cours du temps. Nous avons démontré que le nombre d'hémocultures prélevées était un indicateur stable de la charge infectieuse dans un service de médecine générale. Ceci ne permet cependant pas de généraliser l'usage de cet indicateur pour tous les types de service. La pratique des hémocultures peut, en effet, varier d'une unité à l'autre, ou entres différentes institutions. ll convient donc de tester la validité de ce paramètre dans un service avant de l'appliquer.

The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.

Adsorption of glyphosate in chilean soils and its relationship with unoccupied phosphate binding sites

The objective of this work was to investigate glyphosate adsorption by soils and its relationship with unoccupied binding sites for phosphate adsorption. Soil samples of three Chilean soils series - Valdivia (Andisol), Clarillo (Inceptisol) and Chicureo (Vertisol) - were incubated with different herbicide concentrations. Glyphosate remaining in solution was determined by adjusting a HPLC method with a UV detector. Experimental maximum adsorption capacity were 15,000, 14,300 and 4,700 mg g¹ for Valdivia, Clarillo, and Chicureo soils, respectively. Linear, Freundlich, and Langmuir models were used to describe glyphosate adsorption. Isotherms describing glyphosate adsorption differed among soils. Maximum adjusted adsorption capacity with the Langmuir model was 231,884, 17,874 and 5,670 mg g-1 for Valdivia, Clarillo, and Chicureo soils, respectively. Glyphosate adsorption on the Valdivia soil showed a linear behavior at the range of concentrations used and none of the adjusted models became asymptotic. The high glyphosate adsorption capacity of the Valdivia soil was probably a result of its high exchangeable Al, extractable Fe, and alophan and imogolite clay type. Adsorption was very much related to phosphate dynamics in the Valdivia soil, which showed the larger unoccupied phosphate binding sites. However relationship between unoccupied phosphate binding sites and glyphosate adsorption in the other two soils (Clarillo and Chicureo) was not clear.

Policy for Accommodating and Adjustment of Utilities on the Primary Road System, 2012

This chapter covers initial placement, adjustment, and maintenance of utility facilities in, on, above or below the right-of-way of primary highways, including attachments to primary highway structures. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed to ensure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (2012 revision to 2005 policy.)

Policy for Accommodating and Adjustment of Utilities on the Primary Road System, 2005

This chapter covers initial placement, adjustment, and maintenance of utility facilities in, on, above or below the right-of-way of primary highways, including attachments to primary highway structures. It embodies the basic specifications and standards needed, to ensure the safety of the highway user and the integrity of the highway. (2005 revision to 1992 policy.)

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Uric acid and cardio-metabolic risk factors : an epidemiological approach

The role of serum uric acid (SUA) in cardio-metabolic conditions has long been contentious. It is still unclear if SUA is an independent risk factor or marker of cardio-metabolic conditions and most observed associations are not necessarily causal. This study aimed to further understand and explore the causal role of SUA in cardio-metabolic conditions using genetic and non-genetic epidemiological methods in population-based data. In the first part of this study, we found moderate to high heritability estimates for SUA and fractional excretion of urate (FEUA) suggesting the role of genetic factors in the etiology of hyperuricemia. With regards to the role of SUA on inflammatory markers (IMs), a strong positive association of SUA with C-reactive protein (CRP) and a weaker positive association with tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) was observed, which was in part mediated by body mass index (BMI). These findings suggest that SUA may have a role in sterile inflammation. In view of the inconsistency surrounding the causal nature and direction of the relation between SUA and adiposity, we applied a bidirectional Mendelian randomization approach using genetic variants to decipher the association. The finding that elevated SUA is a consequence rather than a cause of adiposity was not totally unexpected and is compatible with the hypothesis that hyperinsulinemia, accompanying obesity, enhances renal proximal tubular reabsorption of uric acid. The fourth part of this study examined the relationship between SUA and blood pressure (BP) in young adults. The association between SUA and BP, significant only in females, was strongly attenuated upon adjustment for BMI. The possibility that BMI lies in the causal pathway may explain the attenuation observed in the associations of SUA with BP and IMs. Finally, a significant hockey-stick shaped association of SUA with social phobia in our data suggests a protective effect of SUA only up to a certain concentration. Although our study findings have shed some light on the uncertainty underlying the pathophysiology of SUA, more compelling evidence using longitudinal designs, randomized controlled trials and the use of robust genetic tools is warranted to increase our understanding of the clinical significance of SUA.

An evolutionary analysis of the relationship between spite and altruism.

We investigate the selective pressures on a social trait when evolution occurs in a population of constant size. We show that any social trait that is spiteful simultaneously qualifies as altruistic. In other words, any trait that reduces the fitness of less related individuals necessarily increases that of related ones. Our analysis demonstrates that the distinction between "Hamiltonian spite" and "Wilsonian spite" is not justified on the basis of fitness effects. We illustrate this general result with an explicit model for the evolution of a social act that reduces the recipient's survival ("harming trait"). This model shows that the evolution of harming is favoured if local demes are of small size and migration is low (philopatry). Further, deme size and migration rate determine whether harming evolves as a selfish strategy by increasing the fitness of the actor, or as a spiteful/altruistic strategy through its positive effect on the fitness of close kin.

The adjective petit 'small, little' in French acquisition data: an example of the relationship between pragmatics and morphosyntactic development

In French the adjective petit 'small, little' has a special status: it fulfills various pragmatic functions in addition to semantic meanings and it is thus highly frequent in discourse. Résumé: This study, based on the data of two children, aged 1;6 to 2;11, argues that petit and its pragmatic meanings play a specific role in the acquisition of French adjectives. In contrast to what is expected in child language, petit favours the early development of a pattern of noun phrase with prenominal attributive adjective. The emergence and distribution of petit in the children's production is examined and related to its distribution in the input, and the detailed pragmatic meanings and functions of petit are analysed. Prenominal petit emerges early as the preferred and most productive adjective. Pragmatic meanings of petit appear to be predominant in this early age and are of two main types: expressions of endearment (in noun phrases) and mitigating devices whose scope is the entire utterance. These results, as well as instances of children's pragmatic overgeneralizations, provide new evidence that at least some pragmatic meanings are prior to semantic meanings in early acquisition.

Relationship between grain colour and preharvest sprouting-resistance in wheat

Since red alleles (R) of the genes that control grain colour are important for the improvement of preharvest sprouting resistance in wheat and there are three independently inherited loci, on chromosomes 3A, 3B and 3D of hexaploid wheat, it is possible to vary the dosage of dominant alleles in a breeding program. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dosage effect of R genes on preharvest sprouting, in a single seed descent population, named TRL, derived from the cross between Timgalen, white-grained wheat, and RL 4137, red-grained wheat. The study was carried out using sprouting data in ripe ears obtained under artificial conditions in a rainfall simulator over three years. According to the results there is a significant effect on preharvest sprouting provided by colour and a weaker effect of increasing R dosage. However, the significant residual genotypic variation between red lines and all lines (reds and whites) at 0.1% level showed that preharvest sprouting was also controlled by other genes. There are no significant correlations between sprouting and date of ripeness or between ripeness, R dosage and colour intensity.