Utility in Willingness to Pay Space: A Tool to Address Confounding Random Scale Effects in Destination Choice to the Alps

We compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) in discrete choice models. The usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of WTP, which is the ratio of coefficients. The alternative is to estimate the distribution of WTP directly. We apply both approaches to data on site choice in the Alps. We find that the alternative approach fits the data better, reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated WTP values, and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of WTP. © 2008 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

Cigarette smoking and random serum cholesterol levels in a Northern Ireland general practice population of 18- to 20-year-old students and non-students

Coronary heart disease is the commonest cause of death in Northern Ireland, but few data exist on the incidence of risk factors in young adult students and non-students.

Environmental indifference? A critique of environmentally deterministic theories of peatland archaeological site construction in Ireland

Climate change, whether gradual or sudden, has frequently been invoked as a causal factor to explain many aspects of cultural change during the prehistoric and early historic periods. Critiquing such theories has often proven difficult, not least because of the imprecise dating of many aspects of the palaeoclimate or archaeological records and the difficulties of merging the two strands of research. Here we consider one example of the archaeological record – peatland site construction in Ireland – which has previously been interpreted in terms of social response to climate change and examine whether close scrutiny of the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental records uphold the climatically deterministic hypotheses. We evaluate evidence for phasing in the temporal distribution of trackways and related sites in Irish peatlands, of which more than 3,500 examples have been recorded, through the examination of ~350 dendrochronological and 14C dates from these structures. The role of climate change in influencing when such sites were constructed is assessed by comparing visually and statistically the frequency of sites over the last 4,500 years with well-dated, multi-proxy climate reconstructions from Irish peatlands. We demonstrate that national patterns of “peatland activity” exist that indicate that the construction of sites in bogs was neither a constant nor random phenomenon. Phases of activity (i.e. periods in which the number of structures increased), as well as the ‘lulls’ that separate them, show no consistent correlation with periods of wetter or drier conditions on the bogs, suggesting that the impetus for the start or cessation of such activity was not climatically-determined. We propose that trigger(s) for peatland site construction in Ireland must instead also be sought within the wider, contemporary social background. Perhaps not surprisingly, a comparison with archaeological and palynological evidence shows that peatland activity tends to occur at times of more expansive settlement and land-use, suggesting that the bogs were used when the landscape was being more widely occupied. Interestingly, the lulls in peatland site construction coincide with transitional points between nominal archaeological phases, typically defined on the basis of their material culture, implying that there may indeed have been a cultural discontinuity at these times. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

WASP-52b, WASP-58b, WASP-59b, and WASP-60b: Four new transiting close-in giant planets

We present the discovery of four new transiting hot jupiters, detected mainly from SuperWASP-North and SOPHIE observations. These new planets, WASP-52b, WASP-58b, WASP-59b, and WASP-60b, have orbital periods ranging from 1.7 to 7.9 days, masses between 0.46 and 0.94 M_Jup, and radii between 0.73 and 1.49 R_Jup. Their G1 to K5 dwarf host stars have V magnitudes in the range 11.7-13.0. The depths of the transits are between 0.6 and 2.7%, depending on the target. With their large radii, WASP-52b and 58b are new cases of low-density, inflated planets, whereas WASP-59b is likely to have a large, dense core. WASP-60 shows shallow transits. In the case of WASP-52 we also detected the Rossiter-McLaughlin anomaly via time-resolved spectroscopy of a transit. We measured the sky-projected obliquity lambda = 24 (+17/-9) degrees, indicating that WASP-52b orbits in the same direction as its host star is rotating and that this prograde orbit is slightly misaligned with the stellar equator. These four new planetary systems increase our statistics on hot jupiters, and provide new targets for follow-up studies.

Do hens have friends?

Recent interest in positive welfare has encouraged consideration of the formation of socio-positive relationships in farmed species which may provide a means by which to manage positive states. We investigated in detail the existence of dyadic preferential associations in small groups of domestic laying hens. Spatial and temporal associations were examined in two contexts (day activity and evening roosting), within 8 identical pens of 15 laying hens over 8 weeks. Little aggression was observed. Social network analysis was performed to investigate correlations in who associated with whom using weighted degree (number) and binary (presence or absence) data for shared resource areas and proximity to other individuals. No consistent evidence was found for hens actively preferring others in their choice of resource area, or in companion proximity. Perch-roosting positions chosen by the hens were compared with data generated from a random-choice model. Hens showed no position preferences. Most dyads were never observed roosting together and, although some apparently perched together frequently, the low number of nights perching and proportion of nights spent together indicates these findings should be interpreted with caution. Overall, we found no convincing evidence of dyadic preferential relationships expressed by close active and resting proximities. Further work is required to confirm whether these findings hold true in other experimental contexts, are affected by social experience and if they hold in common with the progenitor sub-species. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Implementation and testing of Lanczos-based algorithms for Random-Phase Approximation eigenproblems

The treatment of the Random-Phase Approximation Hamiltonians, encountered in different frameworks, like time-dependent density functional theory or Bethe-Salpeter equation, is complicated by their non-Hermicity. Compared to their Hermitian Hamiltonian counterparts, computational methods for the treatment of non-Hermitian Hamiltonians are often less efficient and less stable, sometimes leading to the breakdown of the method. Recently [Gruning et al. Nano Lett. 8 (2009) 28201, we have identified that such Hamiltonians are usually pseudo-Hermitian. Exploiting this property, we have implemented an algorithm of the Lanczos type for Random-Phase Approximation Hamiltonians that benefits from the same stability and computational load as its Hermitian counterpart, and applied it to the study of the optical response of carbon nanotubes. We present here the related theoretical grounds and technical details, and study the performance of the algorithm for the calculation of the optical absorption of a molecule within the Bethe-Salpeter equation framework. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Monte Carlo simulation of complex cohesive fracture in random heterogeneous quasi-brittle materials

A numerical method is developed to simulate complex two-dimensional crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials considering random heterogeneous fracture properties. Potential cracks are represented by pre-inserted cohesive elements with tension and shear softening constitutive laws modelled by spatially varying Weibull random fields. Monte Carlo simulations of a concrete specimen under uni-axial tension were carried out with extensive investigation of the effects of important numerical algorithms and material properties on numerical efficiency and stability, crack propagation processes and load-carrying capacities. It was found that the homogeneous model led to incorrect crack patterns and load–displacement curves with strong mesh-dependence, whereas the heterogeneous model predicted realistic, complicated fracture processes and load-carrying capacity of little mesh-dependence. Increasing the variance of the tensile strength random fields with increased heterogeneity led to reduction in the mean peak load and increase in the standard deviation. The developed method provides a simple but effective tool for assessment of structural reliability and calculation of characteristic material strength for structural design.

Using macroscopic entanglement to close the detection loophole in Bell-inequality tests

We consider a Bell-like inequality performed using various instances of multiphoton entangled states to demonstrate that losses occurring after the unitary transformations used in the nonlocality test can be counteracted by enhancing the size of such entangled states. In turn, this feature can be used to overcome detection inefficiencies affecting the test itself: a slight increase in the size of such states, pushing them towards a more macroscopic form of entanglement, significantly improves the state robustness against detection inefficiency, thus easing the closing of the detection loophole. Differently, losses before the unitary transformations cause decoherence effects that cannot be compensated using macroscopic entanglement.

Making heads or tails of probability:an experiment with random generators

The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as 'equiprobable' by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based on a misunderstanding of the concept of randomness.

Creating an Inclusive Society… How Close are We in Relation to Autism Spectrum Disorder? A General Population Survey

BackgroundChildren with autism spectrum disorder are increasingly educated in mainstream classrooms in the United Kingdom (Wilkinson & Twist, Autism and Educational Assessment: UK Policy and Practice. NFER, Slough, 2010), and some employers are now specifically seeking out staff on the autism spectrum. Does that mean that we are living in an inclusive society' [United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Creating an Inclusive Society: Practical Strategies to Promote Social Integration 2008], in the sense that inequalities are reduced and full economic, social and cultural participation is advanced for individuals with autism?

MethodsA general population survey was conducted to assess how close we, as a society, are to an inclusive society for individuals with autism in Northern Ireland. Public attitudes were examined to (i) visibility and social interaction, (ii) aetiology, needs and interventions, and (iii) rights and resources.

ResultsA stratified, representative sample of 1204 adults took part in the survey; of these, 989 were aware of autism and their attitudes and behavioural projections reflected a mix of acceptance and denunciation. The level of confusion with regard to interventions reflected the general uncertainty within UK policy regarding meeting the needs of individuals on the autism spectrum (International Journal of Disability, Development and Education 61, 134, 2014a).

ConclusionTherefore, it seems that inclusion is working to an extent, but more clarity is needed with regard to adequate education, intervention and support for individuals with autism.

Search protocols for hidden forensic objects beneath floors and within walls

The burial of objects (human remains, explosives, weapons) below or behind concrete, brick, plaster or tiling may be associated with serious crime and are difficult locations to search. These are quite common forensic search scenarios but little has been published on them to-date. Most documented discoveries are accidental or from suspect/witness testimony. The problem in locating such hidden objects means a random or chance-based approach is not advisable. A preliminary strategy is presented here, based on previous studies, augmented by primary research where new technology or applications are required. This blend allows a rudimentary search workflow, from remote desktop study, to non-destructive investigation through to recommendations as to how the above may inform excavation, demonstrated here with a case study from a homicide investigation. Published case studies on the search for human remains demonstrate the problems encountered when trying to find and recover sealed-in and sealed over locations. Established methods include desktop study, photography, geophysics and search dogs:these are integrated with new technology (LiDAR and laser scanning; photographic rectification; close quarter aerial imagery; ground-penetrating radar on walls and gamma-ray/neutron activation radiography) to propose this possible search strategy.