Mixture models for capture-recapture count data

The contribution investigates the problem of estimating the size of a population, also known as the missing cases problem. Suppose a registration system is targeting to identify all cases having a certain characteristic such as a specific disease (cancer, heart disease, ...), disease related condition (HIV, heroin use, ...) or a specific behavior (driving a car without license). Every case in such a registration system has a certain notification history in that it might have been identified several times (at least once) which can be understood as a particular capture-recapture situation. Typically, cases are left out which have never been listed at any occasion, and it is this frequency one wants to estimate. In this paper modelling is concentrating on the counting distribution, e.g. the distribution of the variable that counts how often a given case has been identified by the registration system. Besides very simple models like the binomial or Poisson distribution, finite (nonparametric) mixtures of these are considered providing rather flexible modelling tools. Estimation is done using maximum likelihood by means of the EM algorithm. A case study on heroin users in Bangkok in the year 2001 is completing the contribution.

The molecular structure of hexamethyldigermane determined by gas-phase electron diffraction with theoretical calculations for (CH3)3M-M(CH3)3 Where M = C, Si, and Ge

Gas-phase electron diffraction (GED) data together with results from ab initio molecular orbital calculations (HF and MP2/6-311+G(d,p)) have been used to determine the structure of hexamethyldigermane ((CH3)3Ge-Ge(CH3)3). The equilibrium symmetry is D3d, but the molecule has a very low-frequency, largeamplitude, torsional mode (φCGeGeC) that lowers the thermal average symmetry. The effect of this largeamplitude mode on the interatomic distances was described by a dynamic model which consisted of a set of pseudoconformers spaced at even intervals. The amount of each pseudoconformer was obtained from the ab initio calculations (HF/6-311+G(d,p)). The results for the principal distances (ra) and angles (∠h1) obtained from the combined GED/ab initio (with estimated 1σ uncertainties) are r(Ge-Ge) ) 2.417(2) Å, r(Ge-C) ) 1.956(1) Å, r(C-H) ) 1.097(5) Å, ∠GeGeC ) 110.5(2)°, and ∠GeCH ) 108.8(6)°. Theoretical calculations were performed for the related molecules ((CH3)3Si-Si(CH3)3 and (CH3)3C-C(CH3)3).

Estimators in capture-recapture studies with two sources

This paper investigates the applications of capture-recapture methods to human populations. Capture-recapture methods are commonly used in estimating the size of wildlife populations but can also be used in epidemiology and social sciences, for estimating prevalence of a particular disease or the size of the homeless population in a certain area. Here we focus on estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases. Several estimators of population size are considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator and its modified version, the Chapman estimator, Chao's lower bound estimator, the Zelterman's estimator, McKendrick's moment estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator. In order to evaluate these estimators, they are applied to real, three-source, capture-recapture data. By conditioning on each of the sources of three source data, we have been able to compare the estimators with the true value that they are estimating. The Chapman and Chao estimators were compared in terms of their relative bias. A variance formula derived through conditioning is suggested for Chao's estimator, and normal 95% confidence intervals are calculated for this and the Chapman estimator. We then compare the coverage of the respective confidence intervals. Furthermore, a simulation study is included to compare Chao's and Chapman's estimator. Results indicate that Chao's estimator is less biased than Chapman's estimator unless both sources are independent. Chao's estimator has also the smaller mean squared error. Finally, the implications and limitations of the above methods are discussed, with suggestions for further development.

CAMCR: Computer assisted mixture model analysis for capture-recapture count data

Population size estimation with discrete or nonparametric mixture models is considered, and reliable ways of construction of the nonparametric mixture model estimator are reviewed and set into perspective. Construction of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mixing distribution is done for any number of components up to the global nonparametric maximum likelihood bound using the EM algorithm. In addition, the estimators of Chao and Zelterman are considered with some generalisations of Zelterman’s estimator. All computations are done with CAMCR, a special software developed for population size estimation with mixture models. Several examples and data sets are discussed and the estimators illustrated. Problems using the mixture model-based estimators are highlighted.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Purification and electron cryomicroscopy of coronavirus particles

Intact, enveloped coronavirus particles vary widely in size and contour, and are thus refractory to study by traditional structural means such as X-ray crystallography. Electron microscopy (EM) overcomes some problems associated with particle variability and has been an important tool for investigating coronavirus ultrastructure. However, EM sample preparation requires that the specimen be dried onto a carbon support film before imaging, collapsing internal particle structure in the case of coronaviruses. Moreover, conventional EM achieves image contrast by immersing the specimen briefly in heavy-metal-containing stain, which reveals some features while obscuring others. Electron cryomicroscopy (cryo-EM) instead employs a porous support film, to which the specimen is adsorbed and flash-frozen. Specimens preserved in vitreous ice over holes in the support film can then be imaged without additional staining. Cryo-EM, coupled with single-particle image analysis techniques, makes it possible to examine the size, structure and arrangement of coronavirus structural components in fully hydrated, native virions. Two virus purification procedures are described.

Application of one-list capture-recapture models to scrapie surveillance data in Great Britain

In this paper, we apply one-list capture-recapture models to estimate the number of scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain. We applied this technique to the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme dataset where cases from all the surveillance sources monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain, the abattoir survey, the fallen stock survey and the statutory reporting of clinical cases, are gathered. Consequently, the estimates of prevalence obtained from this scheme should be comprehensive and cover all the different presentations of the disease captured individually by the surveillance sources. Two estimators were applied under the one-list approach: the Zelterman estimator and Chao's lower bound estimator. Our results could only inform with confidence the scrapie-affected holding population with clinical disease; this moved around the figure of 350 holdings in Great Britain for the period under study, April 2005-April 2006. Our models allowed the stratification by surveillance source and the input of covariate information, holding size and country of origin. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly. Crown Copyright (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seston capture by Hydropsyche siltalai and the accuracy of capture efficiency estimates

1. Suspension feeding by caseless caddisfly larvae (Trichoptera) constitutes a major pathway for energy flow, and strongly influences productivity, in streams and rivers. 2. Consideration of the impact of these animals on lotic ecosystems has been strongly influenced by a single study investigating the efficiency of particle capture of nets built by one species of hydropsychid caddisfly. 3. Using water sampling techniques at appropriate spatial scales, and taking greater consideration of local hydrodynamics than previously, we examined the size-frequency distribution of particles captured by the nets of Hydropsyche siltalai. Our results confirm that capture nets are selective in terms of particle size, and in addition suggest that this selectivity is for particles likely to provide the most energy. 4. By incorporating estimates of flow diversion around the nets of caseless caddisfly larvae, we show that capture efficiency (CE) is considerably higher than previously estimated, and conclude that more consideration of local hydrodynamics is needed to evaluate the efficiency of particle capture. 5. We use our results to postulate a mechanistic explanation for a recent example of interspecific facilitation, whereby a reduction of near-bed velocities seen in single species monocultures leads to increased capture rates and local depletion of seston within the region of reduced velocity.

Molecular structure of 2,5-dihydropyrrole (C4NH7), obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structure of 2,5-dihydropyrrole (C4NH7) has been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), augmented by the results from ab initio calculations employing third-order Moller-Plesset (MP3) level of theory and the 6-311+G(d,p) basis set. Several theoretical calculations were performed. From theoretical calculations using MP3/6-311+G(d,p) evidence was obtained for the presence of an axial (63%) (N-H bond axial to the CNC plane) and an equatorial conformer (37%) (N-H bond equatorial to the CNC plane). The five-membered ring was found to be puckered with the CNC plane inclined at 21.8 (38)° to the plane of the four carbon atoms.

Molecular structures of trimethylchlorogermane, (CH3)(3)GeCl, and trimethylbromogermane, (CH3)(3)GeBr, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of trimethylchlorogermane ((CH3)(3)GeCl) and trimethylbromogermane ((CH3)(3)GeBr) have been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), augmented by the results from ab initio calculations employing second-order Moller-Plesset (MP2) level of theory and the 6-311+G(d) basis set. All the electrons were included in the correlation calculation. The results from the ab initio calculations indicated that these molecules have C-3v symmetry, and models with this symmetry were used in the electron diffraction analysis. The results for the principal distances (r(g)) and angles (angle(alpha)) from the combined GED/ab initio study of trimethylchlorogermane (with estimated 2sigma uncertainties) are: r(Ge-C) = 1.950(4) Angstrom, r(Ge-Cl) = 2.173(4) Angstrom, r(C-H) = 1.090(9) Angstrom, angleCGeC = 112.7(7)degrees, angleCGeCl = 106.0(8)degrees, angleGeCH = 107.8(12)degrees. The results for the principal distances (r(g)) and angles (angle(alpha)) from the combined GED/ab initio study of trimethylbromogermane (with estimated 2sigma uncertainties) are: r(Ge-C) = 1.952(7) Angstrom, r(Ge-Br) = 2.325(4) Angstrom, r(C-H) = 1. 140(28) Angstrom, angleCGeC = 114.2(11)degrees, angleCGeBr = 104.2(13)degrees, angleGeCH 106.9(43)degrees. Local C-3v symmetry and staggered conformation were assumed for the methyl groups.

Molecular structures of benzoic acid and 2-hydroxybenzoic acid, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of benzoic acid (C6H5COOH) and 2-hydroxybenzoic acid (C6H4OHCOOH) have been determined in the gas phase by electron diffraction using results from quantum chemical calculations to inform restraints used on the structural parameters. Theoretical methods (HF and MP2/6-311+G(d, p)) predict two conformers for benzoic acid, one which is 25.0 kJ mol(-1) (MP2) lower in energy than the other. In the low-energy form, the carboxyl group is coplanar with the phenyl ring and the O-H group eclipses the C=O bond. Theoretical calculations (HF and MP2/6-311+ G(d, p)) carried out for 2-hydroxybenzoic acid gave evidence for seven stable conformers but one low-energy form (11.7 kJ mol-1 lower in energy (MP2)) which again has the carboxyl group coplanar with the phenyl ring, the O-H of the carboxyl group eclipsing the C=O bond and the C=O of the carboxyl group oriented toward the O-H group of the phenyl ring. The effects of internal hydrogen bonding in 2-hydroxybenzoic acid can be clearly observed by comparison of pertinent structural parameters between the two compounds. These differences for 2-hydroxybenzoic acid include a shorter exocyclic C-C bond, a lengthening of the ring C-C bond between the substituents, and a shortening of the carboxylic single C-O bond.

Molecular structures of 3-hydroxybenzoic acid and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid, obtained by gas-phase electron diffraction and theoretical calculations

The structures of 3-hydroxybenzoic acid and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid have been determined by gas-phase electron diffraction using results from quantum chemical calculations to inform the choice of restraints applied to some of the structural parameters. The results from the study presented here demonstrate that resonance hybrids are not as helpful in rationalizing the structures of 2-, 3-, and 4-hydroxybenzoic acids as are models based upon electrostatic effects.

Dissociative electron impact ionization of N2O5

Electron impact ionization of dinitrogen pentoxide for incident electron energies up to about 25 eV has been investigated by use of a crossed beams quadrupole mass spectrometer system. The experiments reported in this paper detected the fragmentation products NO2+, NO+, O+, N+, and NO3+. No stable N2O5+ ion was observed. The NO3+ fragment, for which we determine an appearance energy 13.25 +/- 0.30 ev, has not been observed previously. This appearance energy is close to the calculated threshold.