Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

A technological innovation for capsicums production in Peru: the mechatronics arms

Peru agricultural exports have increased in recent years due to (i) free trade agreements with many countries (United States, Canada, European Union, China, Thailand, Singapore, Japan, Chile, among others), (ii) an increasing international demand for healthy products, (iii) country´s economic development and (iv) more private investments in this sector (Velazco 2012). Also, if we can compare among Peru three main regions (Coast, Andean highlands and the Jungle), It is the Coast (western region) that has a developed agricultural production due to unique weather conditions, private investments, public infrastructure, transport costs and quality of land (Gomez, 2008). This country development is also related to the production of non-traditional products for export like asparagus, artichokes, capsicums, bananas, grapes, among others; produced by agro industrial companies and small farmers and that are mainly labor intensive (Gomez, 2008 and Velazco, 2012). This very successful export diversification and self-discovery process was the result of a combination of strong natural comparative advantages (mainly excellent agro climatic conditions) and a significant innovation effort. It meant the introduction and expansion of new products and markets, the entry of new firms, and experimental research and the adoption of new techniques and process technologies developed abroad (in irrigation, crop management, post-harvesting, sanitary control, storage and packing) to produce high-quality, niche (gourmet) and higher value-added products, in line with consumer trends in sophisticated food markets. In products such as asparagus, mango, organic coffee and capsicums, Peru has become a leading world exporter (OECD). For this reason one of the government main tasks for the next years is to meet urgent agriculture producer’s needs in the areas of technological Innovation and business management (MINAG). In this context, this thesis analyzes the applicability of a new technology – the mechatronic arms – specifically to capsicums production sector in Peru. We chose Capsicums production sector (paprika, chilli pepper) because is mainly labor intensive and is the sector where my family company (DIROSE SAC) operates. This innovation consists in a 40 arms mechatronic combine, and it was first created in order to improve the efficiency on the labor intensive phase of harvest for this kind of agriculture products. It is estimated that a laborer with brief training operating the machine would be equivalent to 40 people that not only would work during daytime, but also on the night shift as well. Also, using this new technology can allow a company to make additional crops that would increase their yields and annual revenues. This thesis was developed as a business plan to make this new product available for other agriculture companies that operates in the capsicums production sector in Peru; however, this new technology has the potential to be modified in order to be available to other kind of agriculture products, in Peru and other countries.

O impacto da convergência de indústrias na configuração da cadeia de valor em empresas na indústria de telecomunicações no Brasil : um estudo de caso

O mercado de telecomunicações mundial, em geral e brasileiro em particular, passou por mudanças significativas ao longo dos últimos dez anos, tanto em âmbito concorrencial, como regulatório. O modelo de serviço único prestado por empresas distintas foi transformado pela convergência de indústrias, com a criação de novas ofertas e proposições de valor a partir de um portfólio diversificado e complementar de serviços aos consumidores. Estes fatos criaram para as empresas que operam no setor a necessidade de revisão de suas cadeias de valor para adequarem-se à nova dinâmica da indústria. Ainda que esse processo venha ocorrendo ao longo dos últimos anos, há poucos estudos que procurem endereçar os impactos para a realidade brasileira. O propósito desse trabalho é o de avaliar os efeitos para a configuração da cadeia de valor que a convergência de indústrias no setor de telecomunicações brasileiro trouxe para o estudo de caso. Para endereçar a resposta à pergunta de pesquisa, primeiro é conduzida uma revisão teórica sobre a definição do setor de TICs (FRANSMAN, 2010), a relação com a indústria de telecomunicações e os aspectos que marcam o caso brasileiro. Em segundo, é feita a revisão teórica para as definições constitutivas relacionadas à convergência de indústrias (HACKLIN, F. et al., 2009), cadeia de valor (PORTER, 1985) e rede de valor (PIL e HOLWEG, 2006; MÖLLER e RAJALA, 2007; PARTANEN e MÖLLER, 2012). A partir da constituição teórica e a análise dos dados qualitativos pretende-se aplicar os conceitos ao estudo de caso brasileiro e verificar se há alguma configuração da cadeia de valor que seja referência para melhor lidar com os efeitos da convergência de indústrias. Como ferramenta de coleta de dados serão feitas entrevistas para constituir os aspectos mais relevantes das mudanças causadas pela convergência de indústrias e entender as transformações consequentes para as cadeias de valor.

A organização industrial das bolsas de valores: uma resenha da literatura e o caso brasileiro

O mercado de capitais brasileiro não é representativo do tamanho de sua economia. Nos últimos anos, o crescimento observado nas áreas de serviços, indústria, agronegócio, e outras, não foi acompanhado pelo mercado financeiro. A estrutura verticalizada e o posicionamento monopolista da BM&F Bovespa, única bolsa de valores em atuação no mercado local, vão de encontro ao cenário encontrado em mercados internacionais. O advento da eletronificação e a atuação dos agentes reguladores proporcionaram que os mercados internacionais operassem em ambientes com múltiplas bolsas, incentivando a competitividade e trazendo benefícios para o investidor final, como redução de custos explícitos e implícitos, melhoria dos serviços prestados, diversidade de produtos, etc. Artigos recentes comprovam o benefício da fragmentação de ordens, e podem ser usados como referência no incentivo à quebra do monopólio que existe hoje no mercado brasileiro.

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS of AMAZON RIVER PRAWN FARMING TO THE MARKETS FOR LIVE BAIT and JUVENILES IN PANTANAL, BRAZIL

The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.

Analysis of the serological variability of Lettuce mosaic virus using monoclonal antibodies and surface plasmon resonance technology

A panel of 19 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) was used to study the immunological variability of Lettuce mosaic virus (LMV), a member of the genus Potyvirus, and to perform a first epitope characterization of this virus. Based on their specificity of recognition against a panel of 15 LMV isolates, the mAbs could be clustered in seven reactivity groups. Surface plasmon resonance analysis indicated the presence, on the LMV particles, of at least five independent recognition/ binding regions, correlating with the seven mAbs reactivity groups. The results demonstrate that LMV shows significant serological variability and shed light on the LMV epitope structure. The various mAbs should prove a new and efficient tool for LIVIV diagnostic and field epidemiology studies.

Caracterização de matérias-primas regionais e desenvolvimento de formulações de massas cerâmicas para porcelanato

Initially concentrated in some poles at the South and Southeast regions of Brazil, the ceramic tiles industry became wide during the 80 s decade, with a disconcentration industrial and regional pulverization. The competitiveness in the ceramic tiles internal and external consumers markets, it has debtor the industries to invest in sophisticated products each time more, either in design or the technology, but, mainly, in its final properties. Amongst the diverse types of ceramic coating, the porcelanato if has detached had to its process of technological production and excellent characteristics techniques. The Porcelanato is currently the material for coatings that presents the best technical and aesthetic features when compared with others ceramics found on the market. The chemical composition and the others raw materials characteristics have an importance that must to be ally to the inherent characteristics of fabrication process, essentially those related to the cycle of burning. This work had as purpose to develop formularizations of ceramic mass for production of porcelanato without glass coating, pertaining to the group BIa (text of absorption of water ≤ 0.5%) and with resistance superior mechanics 35MPa from raw materials characterized. The ceramic raw materials selected to the development of this study (A1 and A2 clays, feldspate, talc and quartz) were submitted to the following tests: X-ray fluorescence - chemical analysis determination; X-ray diffraction - Analysis of the stages mineralogics; Laser granulometry - size distribution of particles; and Differential thermal analysis - thermal behavior. Were performed tests of absorption of water, lineal retraction of it burns, apparent specific mass and rupture tension the flexing. The results had evidenced that the formularizations that had the A1 clay and talc on its composition were efficient for the porcelanato production remaining their technological characteristics inside of the intervals of variation desired by the Norms of the ABNT

Physiochemical analysis and centesimal composition of Pleurotus ostreatus mushroom grown in residues from the Amazon

O presente estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a composição nutricional dos cogumelos produzidos em substratos alternativos à base de resíduos agrícolas e agroindustriais da Amazônia. Determinou-se C, N, pH, umidade, sólidos solúveis, proteína, lipídios, fibra total, cinzas, carboidratos e energia. Os substratos foram formulados a partir de serragem de Simarouba amara Aubl. (marupá), Ochroma piramidale Cav. ex. Lam. (pau de balsa) e do estipe de Bactris gasipaes Kunth (pupunheira) e de Saccharum officinarum (cana-de-açúcar). Os resultados demonstraram que: a composição nutricional do P. ostreatus variou com o substrato de cultivo e; O P. ostreatus pode ser considerado um importante alimento devido suas características nutricionais: altos teores de proteínas, carboidratos metabolizáveis e fibras; baixos teores de lipídios e de calorias.

Secagem do resíduo industrial da acerola em leito de jorro: estudos fluidodinâmicos e análise do desempenho do secador

In this research, the drying process of acerola waste was investigated by using a spouted bed drier. The process was conducted using high density polyethylene inert particles with the objective of producing an ascorbic acid-rich final product. The fruit waste was ground and used to prepare different water-maltodextrin suspensions. Initially, fluidynamical experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the feeding effect on the spouted bed drier fluidynamics behavior. The experimental planning 23 + 3 was used to investigate the effect of the following variables: solids concentration, drying air temperature, intermittence time, production efficiency, solids retention and product losses by elutriation of fine particles on drier walls. The effect of selected independent variables on the drier stability was also evaluated based on a parameter defined as the ratio between the feed suspension volume and the total inert particles volume. Finally, the powder quality was verified in experiments with fixed feed flow and varying air drying temperature, drying air velocity and intermittence time. It was observed that the suspension interferes in the spouted bed drier fluidynamics behavior, and higher air flow is necessary to stabilize the drier. The suspension also promotes the expansion of the spouted bed diameter, decreases the solid circulation and favors the air distribution at the flush area. All variables interfere in the spouted bed performance, and the solids concentration has a major effect on the material retention and losses. The intermittence time also has great effect on the stability and material retention. When it comes to production efficiency, the main effect observed was the drying air temperature. First order models were well adjusted to retention and losses data. The acerola powder presented ascorbic acid levels around 600 to 700 mg/100g. Similar moisture and ascorbic acid levels were obtained for powders obtained by spouted bed and spray drier. However, the powder production efficiency of the spray drier was lower when compared to spouted bed drier. When it comes to energetic analysis, the spray drier process was superior. The results obtained for spouted bed drier are promising and highly dependent on the operational parameters chosen, but in general, it is inferred that this drying process is adequate for paste and suspension drying

Relações entre mídia e lazer:o capitalismo, os meios e a apropriação do tempo livre nas sociedades industrial e pós-industrial

This research aims to understand the relationship between media, capitalism and ownership of free time for leisure practices in industrial societies and postindustrial. Searching is thus a conceptual framework that takes into account the kind of ideology that naturalizes the relationship of leisure with the foundations of contemporary media, and the media only with leisure, forgetting their insertion in the labor and industrial relations in society. We intend to demonstrate that every mode of production, in the capitalist system, entails a mode of reproduction. Methodologically, this is a first approximation, from theoretical concerns already performed, constituting a theoretical research, bibliographic and descriptive character. The results of the text drives us to the conclusion that the work and leisure spheres tend to be less and less differentiated, since both remain as activities of product management with the same intellective protocols, based on information and communication technology, and that accordingly, the media favors an expansion of productive activity even during leisure time

Analysis of forecasting capabilities of ground surfaces valuation using artificial neural networks

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

As Faces e os Disfaces da Informalidade no Capitalismo Conteporâneo: Um Estudo do Comércio de Rua em Pau dos Ferros/RN

This paper discusses the expression of informality in contemporary capitalism. Thematic of relevance to the analysis of the reality of work today and the logic that moves the capital, its real presence in the lives of individuals. The street trading of Pau dos Ferros town, popularly known as "street market" was chosen as the search space. The main objective is to seize and examine the articulations and logic, present in the configuration of the street trading of this city, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, explaining the functionality of informality for capitalist accumulation, but also for the reproduction of segments of the working class. Our analysis is based in the perspective of totality, trying to grasp the historical determinations of the phenomenon in focus. It includes the analysis of the mechanisms used by the capital to reproduce itself in the current historical context, which has been implicated in the composition of the labor markets of different countries and in various forms of exploitation to which workers in general are subject. It also means discussing the development of capitalism in Brazil, the logic that permeates its dependence, and especially the use of over-exploitation of labor, as a lever for internal accumulation. The course of investigation consisted of theoretical research to form the basis of theoretical and methodological analysis and to outline the context in which our research object is inserted, and field research conducted in two phases: systematic observation, which allowed to map traders features and the infrastructure of commerce, and the conduction of interviews with key informants. The material collected was scrutinized according to analytical scheme inspired by the content analysis. Among the main considerations developed from the research process we include: the street trading of Pau dos Ferros remains shrouded in the majority sale of agricultural products, this demonstrates the structural characteristics of the region. However, the supply of this product is no longer restricted to the excess of small local producers. The presence of the dealer changed the distribution of the product, streamlining it. In parallel, business practices are developed, practices in which traded goods (industrial) reflect the moment of capitalist restoration, a larger business network. The reflections also made it possible to show that street trading follows developing on the basis of informal work, which gains functionality to the system, as it is configured as a space commonly used to drain part of the production, of industries (clothing/shoes), especially if the distribution is considered as an essential element of the complex process that aims at capital appreciation. This activity has been functioning as a place of employment and income generation for the subjects who are away from formal employment, masking, this way, unemployment, moreover, they allow them to continue as consumers. Such expressions reflect the ability and the logic of capital to expand and aggregate into so many realities. It is underway today, the logic that has led many workers to join the project of domination of capital, by the illusory chance to become capitalists. The aim has been to turn the subject into a consumer and the worker an enterprising

Recursive hierarchic segmentation analysis of bone mineral density changes on digital panoramic images

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Histological and Histochemical Analysis of the Fat Body of Rhinocricus padbergi (Diplopoda) Exposed to Contaminated Industrial Soil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolution. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.