Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

The impact of buy to let residential investment on local housing markets: evidence from Glasgow, Scotland

The advent of the 'buy to let' (BTL) phenomenon in the UK. apart from producing a new wave of individualized rental market investment, has been widely judged to be a speculative and destabilizing force in the housing market. This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of new residential investment in one city (Glasgow) where BTL has made a relatively large impact. In seeking to overcome data problems, the study employed qualitative (expert interviews and a landlord survey) and quantitative methods (census, the Register of Sasines, standardized house price information and modelling thereof) in order to assess the nature and scale of BTL, the motivations of investors and its impact on the private housing market. The evidence suggests that white Glasgow is in many re.spects different to rental markets elsewhere in the UK and although the investment has thus far largely occurred in a benign environment, the context for future investment, on balance, looks sustainable (i.e.favourable changes to pension planning law and the maturing market for BTL}. Long-term market impact is an empirical question that depends on the specific interactions of market niches or segments (i.e. the first-time buyer market for apartments} with potential buy to let investment. Our conclusion, to borrow a Scottish legal term, is that BTL induced volatility is 'not proven'.

Complexity theory and planning: examining 'fractals' for organising policy domains in planning practice

This article examines selected methodological insights that complexity theory might provide for planning. In particular, it focuses on the concept of fractals and, through this concept, how ways of organising policy domains across scales might have particular causal impacts. The aim of this article is therefore twofold: (a) to position complexity theory within social science through a ‘generalised discourse’, thereby orienting it to particular ontological and epistemological biases and (b) to reintroduce a comparatively new concept – fractals – from complexity theory in a way that is consistent with the ontological and epistemological biases argued for, and expand on the contribution that this might make to planning. Complexity theory is theoretically positioned as a neo-systems theory with reasons elaborated. Fractal systems from complexity theory are systems that exhibit self-similarity across scales. This concept (as previously introduced by the author in ‘Fractal spaces in planning and governance’) is further developed in this article to (a) illustrate the ontological and epistemological claims for complexity theory, and to (b) draw attention to ways of organising policy systems across scales to emphasise certain characteristics of the systems – certain distinctions. These distinctions when repeated across scales reinforce associated processes/values/end goals resulting in particular policy outcomes. Finally, empirical insights from two case studies in two different policy domains are presented and compared to illustrate the workings of fractals in planning practice.

Complex formation in solutions of oppositely charged polyelectrolytes at different polyion compositions and salt content

The formation of complexes in solutions containing positively charged polyions (polycations) and a variable amount of negatively charged polyions (polyanions) has been investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The polyions were described as flexible chains of charged hard spheres interacting through a screened Coulomb potential. The systems were analyzed in terms of cluster compositions, structure factors, and radial distribution functions. At 50% charge equivalence or less, complexes involving two polycations and one polyanion were frequent, while closer to charge equivalence, larger clusters were formed. Small and neutral complexes dominated the solution at charge equivalence in a monodisperse system, while larger clusters again dominated the solution when the polyions were made polydisperse. The cluster composition and solution structure were also examined as functions of added salt by varying the electrostatic screening length. The observed formation of clusters could be rationalized by a few simple rules.

Making robust policy decision using global biodiversity indicators

In order to influence global policy effectively, conservation scientists need to be able to provide robust predictions of the impact of alternative policies on biodiversity and measure progress towards goals using reliable indicators. We present a framework for using biodiversity indicators predictively to inform policy choices at a global level. The approach is illustrated with two case studies in which we project forwards the impacts of feasible policies on trends in biodiversity and in relevant indicators. The policies are based on targets agreed at the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) meeting in Nagoya in October 2010. The first case study compares protected area policies for African mammals, assessed using the Red List Index; the second example uses the Living Planet Index to assess the impact of a complete halt, versus a reduction, in bottom trawling. In the protected areas example, we find that the indicator can aid in decision-making because it is able to differentiate between the impacts of the different policies. In the bottom trawling example, the indicator exhibits some counter-intuitive behaviour, due to over-representation of some taxonomic and functional groups in the indicator, and contrasting impacts of the policies on different groups caused by trophic interactions. Our results support the need for further research on how to use predictive models and indicators to credibly track trends and inform policy. To be useful and relevant, scientists must make testable predictions about the impact of global policy on biodiversity to ensure that targets such as those set at Nagoya catalyse effective and measurable change.

Optimal tax theory and the taxation of housing in the US and the UK

First, we survey recent research in the application of optimal tax theory to housing. This work suggests that the under-taxation of housing for owner occupation distorts investment so that owner occupiers are encouraged to over-invest in housing. Simulations of the US economy suggest that this is true there. But, the theoretical work excludes consideration of land and the simulations exclude consideration of taxes other than income taxes. These exclusions are important for the US and UK economies. In the US, the property tax is relatively high. We argue that excluding the property tax is wrong, so that, when the property tax is taken into account, owner occupied housing is not undertaxed in the US. In the UK, property taxes are relatively low but the cost of land has been increasing in real terms for forty years as a result of a policy of constraining land for development. The price of land for housing is now higher than elsewhere. Effectively, an implicit tax is paid by first time buyers which has reduced housing investment. When land is taken into account over-investment in housing is not encouraged in the UK either.

Benevolence, hegemony and nationalism: fifty years of the 1949 National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act

This paper reviews the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 fifty years since its enactment. The Act is assessed in the light of fifty years of access policy and within the present context of political debates and manoeuvres over the ‘right to roam’. It is concluded that benevolence is still the prevailing attitude towards access provision, maintaining as it does the scope for alternative freedoms and opportunities to exploit land for consumptive practices such as leisure and recreation. As such, it is argued that the notion of the gift (Mauss, 1990) continues to dominate the provision of countryside access in England and Wales.

Are clinical documents optimised for patient safety? A critical analysis of patient safety outcomes using the EDA error model

Iatrogenic errors and patient safety in clinical processes are an increasing concern. The quality of process information in hardcopy or electronic form can heavily influence clinical behaviour and decision making errors. Little work has been undertaken to assess the safety impact of clinical process planning documents guiding the clinical actions and decisions. This paper investigates the clinical process documents used in elective surgery and their impact on latent and active clinical errors. Eight clinicians from a large health trust underwent extensive semi- structured interviews to understand their use of clinical documents, and their perceived impact on errors and patient safety. Samples of the key types of document used were analysed. Theories of latent organisational and active errors from the literature were combined with the EDA semiotics model of behaviour and decision making to propose the EDA Error Model. This model enabled us to identify perceptual, evaluation, knowledge and action error types and approaches to reducing their causes. The EDA error model was then used to analyse sample documents and identify error sources and controls. Types of knowledge artefact structures used in the documents were identified and assessed in terms of safety impact. This approach was combined with analysis of the questionnaire findings using existing error knowledge from the literature. The results identified a number of document and knowledge artefact issues that give rise to latent and active errors and also issues concerning medical culture and teamwork together with recommendations for further work.

Integrating Sustainability into Brownfield Regeneration: Rhetoric or Reality? – An Analysis of the UK Development Industry

In the UK and elsewhere the use of the term ‘sustainable brownfield regeneration’ has resulted from the interweaving of two key policy themes, comprising ‘sustainable development’ and ‘brownfield regeneration’. This paper provides a critical overview of brownfield policy within the context of the emerging sustainable development agenda in the UK, and examines the development industry's role and attitudes towards key aspects of sustainable development and brownfield regeneration. The paper analyses results from a survey of commercial and residential developers carried out in mid‐2004, underpinned by structured interviews with eleven developers in 2004–2005, which form part of a two‐and‐half‐year EPSRC‐funded project. The results suggest that despite the increasing focus on sustainability in government policy, the development industry seems ill at ease with precisely how sustainable development can be implemented in brownfield schemes. These and other findings, relating to sustainability issues (including the impact of climate change on future brownfield development), have important ramifications for brownfield regeneration policy in the UK. In particular, the research highlights the need for better metrics and benchmarks to be developed to measure ‘sustainable brownfield regeneration’. There also needs to be greater awareness and understanding of alternative clean‐up technologies to ‘dig and dump’.

An analysis of the UK development industry's role in brownfield regeneration

Purpose – This study aims to provide a review of brownfield policy and the emerging sustainable development agenda in the UK, and to examine the development industry’s (both commercial and residential) role and attitudes towards brownfield regeneration and contaminated land. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses results from a two-stage survey of commercial and residential developers carried out in mid-2004, underpinned by structured interviews with 11 developers. Findings – The results suggest that housebuilding on brownfield is no longer the preserve of specialists, and is now widespread throughout the industry in the UK. The redevelopment of contaminated sites for residential use could be threatened by the impact of the EU Landfill Directive. The findings also suggest that developers are not averse to developing on contaminated sites, although post-remediation stigma remains an issue. The market for warranties and insurance continues to evolve. Research limitations/implications – The survey is based on a sample which represents nearly 30 per cent of UK volume housebuilding. Although the response in the smaller developer groups was relatively under-represented, non-response bias was not found to be a significant issue. More research is needed to assess the way in which developers approach brownfield regeneration at a local level. Practical implications – The research suggests that clearer Government guidance in the UK is needed on how to integrate concepts of sustainability in brownfield development and that EU policy, which has been introduced for laudable aims, is creating tensions within the development industry. There may be an emphasis towards greenfield development in the future, as the implications of the Barker review are felt. Originality/value – This is a national survey of developers’ attitudes towards brownfield development in the UK, following the Barker Review, and highlights key issues in UK and EU policy layers. Keywords Brownfield sites, Contamination Paper type Research paper

The relevance of context in property law: a case for judicial restraint?

A distinction between the domestic and commercial context is commonly drawn in property law discourse and has been brought into focus by three recent House of Lords' decisions. The thesis of this paper is that while the distinction is a useful explanatory tool, it runs into difficulties when given legal effect by the courts. There is a definitional problem in understanding what is included within each context. Indeed, the distinction assumes the existence of a dichotomy when, in fact, the domestic and commercial spheres are better seen as a continuum. In Stack v Dowden, the majority of the House of Lords gave legal effect to context and considered that different rules should apply to determine ownership of the home. This paper locates its decision in the broader debate on judicial restraint and creativity. By analogy with current discussion of due deference in public law, it is suggested that, in light of the policy issues involved and the broader ramifications of the decision, insufficient justification was given for the approach adopted by the majority.

Attempts to control pain prioritize attention to signals of pain: an experimental study

Clinical evidence suggests that a persistent search for solutions for chronic pain may bring along costs at the cognitive, affective, and behavioral level. Specifically, attempts to control pain may fuel hypervigilance and prioritize attention towards pain-related information. This hypothesis was investigated in an experiment with 41 healthy volunteers. Prioritization of attention towards a signal for pain was measured using an adaptation of a visual search paradigm in which participants had to search for a target presented in a varying number of colored circles. One of these colors (Conditioned Stimulus) became a signal for pain (Unconditioned Stimulus: electrocutaneous stimulus at tolerance level) using a classical conditioning procedure. Intermixed with the visual search task, participants also performed another task. In the pain-control group, participants were informed that correct and fast responses on trials of this second task would result in an avoidance of the Unconditioned Stimulus. In the comparison group, performance on the second task was not instrumental in controlling pain. Results showed that in the pain-control group, attention was more prioritized towards the Conditioned Stimulus than in the comparison group. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Connecting the complex ‘lived’ world(s) of Fairtrade

Although certified Fairtrade continues to use discourses of defetishization, its move into mainstream markets has acted to refetishize the consumer–producer relationship through the use of a standardized label, which acts as a substitute for engaged knowledges. Through Fairhills, a South African Fairtrade wine project, this paper explores the contextual complexity on the producer side of the commodity network. By incorporating the national discourse of Black Economic Empowerment into its operations, both in Fairhills and in South Africa in general, Fairtrade has adapted to this context, ensuring its relevance and credibility to stakeholders. However, in the UK, little more information than that commonly associated with Fairtrade is offered to Fairhills consumers. The particular market challenges facing Fairtrade wine in the UK make this negotiation between regulation and representation extremely pertinent. A productive way forward may be to conceptualize commodity fetishism as a continuum rather than a binary particularly when considering the difficult balance required when adding complexity to the targeted message of the existing label. This strategy for the sustainability of Fairtrade may be enhanced by utilizing the micro-level dynamism and adaptability that this paper shows is inherent, and indeed essential, to the durability and transferability of the discourse of Fairtrade.

Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU

In this paper, the monetary policy independence of European nations in the years before European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is investigated using cointegration techniques. Daily data is used to assess pairwise relationships between individual EMU nations and ‘lead’ nation Germany, to assess the hypothesis that Germany was the dominant European nation prior to EMU. By and large our econometric investigations support this hypothesis, and lead us to conclude that the only European nation to lose monetary policy independence in the light of monetary union was Germany. Our results have important policy implications. Given that the loss of monetary policy independence is generally viewed as the main cost of monetary unification, our findings suggest a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of monetary integration. A country can only lose what it has, and in Europe the countries that joined EMU — spare Germany — apparently did not have much to lose, at least not in terms of monetary independence. Instead, they actually gained monetary policy influence by getting a seat in the ECB's governing council which is responsible for setting interest policy in the euro area.

Mixed use urban regeneration at Brindleyplace, Birmingham and Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth: an assessment of the impact on local and national economies

This independent research was commissioned by the British Property Federation. The report examines the local and national economic impact of two major, mixed use schemes in terms of tax revenue, household income, business rates and council tax and jobs creation. A regeneration balance sheet for each scheme is presented in the context of government policy and other related research. The report provides a comprehensive review of government policy and the role of retail and other land uses in regeneration. Highlighting the importance of national and local multiplier effects with detailed statistics drawn from a variety of sources, this fully illustrated colour research report builds up a detailed picture of economic impact of the mixed use regeneration schemes in the local economies of Birmingham and Portsmouth. The report will be of interest to property people, planners and all involved in regeneration and local economies.