928 resultados para Price dynamics model with memory


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Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

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Majority of the current research on the mounting system has emphasised on the low/medium power engine, rare work has been reported for the high-speed and heavy-duty engine, the vibration characteristics of which exhibits significantly increased complexity and uncertainty. In this work, a general dynamics model was firstly established to describe the dynamic properties of a mounting system with various numbers of mounts. Then, this model was employed for the optimization of the mounting system. A modified Powell conjugate direction method was developed to improve the optimization efficiency. Basing on the optimization results obtained from the theoretical model, a mounting system was constructed for a V6 diesel engine. The experimental measurement of the vibration intensity of the mounting systems shows excellent agreement with the theoretical calculations, indicating the validity of the model. This dynamics model opens a new avenue in assessing and designing the mounting system for a high-speed and heavy-duty engine. On the other hand, the delineated dynamics model, and the optimization algorithm should find wide applications for other mounting systems, such as the power transmission system which usually has various uncertain mounts.

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This paper provides a first look at the acceptance of Accountable-eHealth systems, a new genre of eHealth systems, designed to manage information privacy concerns that hinder the proliferation of eHealth. The underlying concept of AeH systems is appropriate use of information through after-the-fact accountability for intentional misuse of information by healthcare professionals. An online questionnaire survey was utilised for data collection from three educational institutions in Queensland, Australia. A total of 23 hypothesis relating to 9 constructs were tested using a structural equation modelling technique. A total of 334 valid responses were received. The cohort consisted of medical, nursing and other health related students studying at various levels in both undergraduate and postgraduate courses. The hypothesis testing disproved 7 hypotheses. The empirical research model developed was capable of predicting 47.3% of healthcare professionals’ perceived intention to use AeH systems. A validation of the model with a wider survey cohort would be useful to confirm the current findings.

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Accurate three-dimensional representations of cultural heritage sites are highly valuable for scientific study, conservation, and educational purposes. In addition to their use for archival purposes, 3D models enable efficient and precise measurement of relevant natural and architectural features. Many cultural heritage sites are large and complex, consisting of multiple structures spatially distributed over tens of thousands of square metres. The process of effectively digitising such geometrically complex locations requires measurements to be acquired from a variety of viewpoints. While several technologies exist for capturing the 3D structure of objects and environments, none are ideally suited to complex, large-scale sites, mainly due to their limited coverage or acquisition efficiency. We explore the use of a recently developed handheld mobile mapping system called Zebedee in cultural heritage applications. The Zebedee system is capable of efficiently mapping an environment in three dimensions by continually acquiring data as an operator holding the device traverses through the site. The system was deployed at the former Peel Island Lazaret, a culturally significant site in Queensland, Australia, consisting of dozens of buildings of various sizes spread across an area of approximately 400 × 250 m. With the Zebedee system, the site was scanned in half a day, and a detailed 3D point cloud model (with over 520 million points) was generated from the 3.6 hours of acquired data in 2.6 hours. We present results demonstrating that Zebedee was able to accurately capture both site context and building detail comparable in accuracy to manual measurement techniques, and at a greatly increased level of efficiency and scope. The scan allowed us to record derelict buildings that previously could not be measured because of the scale and complexity of the site. The resulting 3D model captures both interior and exterior features of buildings, including structure, materials, and the contents of rooms.

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The noble idea of studying seminal works to ‘see what we can learn’ has turned in the 1990s into ‘let’s see what we can take’ and in the last decade a more toxic derivative ‘what else can’t we take’. That is my observation as a student of architecture in the 1990s, and as a practitioner in the 2000s. In 2010, the sense that something is ending is clear. The next generation is rising and their gaze has shifted. The idea of classification (as a means of separation) was previously rejected by a generation of Postmodernists; the usefulness of difference declined. It’s there in the presence of plurality in the resulting architecture, a decision to mine history and seize in a willful manner. This is a process of looking back but never forward. It has been a mono-culture of absorption. The mono-culture rejected the pursuit of the realistic. It is a blanket suffocating all practice of architecture in this country from the mercantile to the intellectual. Independent reviews of Australia’s recent contributions to the Venice Architecture Biennales confirm the malaise. The next generation is beginning to reconsider classification as a means of unification. By acknowledging the characteristics of competing forces it is possible to bring them into a state of tension. Seeking a beautiful contrast is a means to a new end. In the political setting, this is described by Noel Pearson as the radical centre[1]. The concept transcends the political and in its most essential form is a cultural phenomenon. It resists the compromised position and suggests that we can look back while looking forward. The radical centre is the only demonstrated opportunity where it is possible to pursue a realistic architecture. A realistic architecture in Australia may be partially resolved by addressing our anxiety of permanence. Farrelly’s built desires[2] and Markham’s ritual demonstrations[3] are two ways into understanding the broader spectrum of permanence. But I think they are downstream of our core problem. Our problem, as architects, is that we are yet to come to terms with this place. Some call it landscape others call it country. Australian cities were laid out on what was mistaken for a blank canvas. On some occasions there was the consideration of the landscape when it presented insurmountable physical obstacles. The architecture since has continued to work on its piece of a constantly blank canvas. Even more ironic is the commercial awards programs that represent a claim within this framework but at best can only establish a dialogue within itself. This is a closed system unable to look forward. It is said that Melbourne is the most European city in the southern hemisphere but what is really being described there is the limitation of a senseless grid. After all, if Dutch landscape informs Dutch architecture why can’t the Australian landscape inform Australian architecture? To do that, we would have to acknowledge our moribund grasp of the meaning of the Australian landscape. Or more precisely what Indigenes call Country[4]. This is a complex notion and there are different ways into it. Country is experienced and understood through the senses and seared into memory. If one begins design at that starting point it is not unreasonable to think we can arrive at an end point that is a counter trajectory to where we have taken ourselves. A recent studio with Masters students confirmed this. Start by finding Country and it would be impossible to end up with a building looking like an Aboriginal man’s face. To date architecture in Australia has overwhelmingly ignored Country on the back of terra nullius. It can’t seem to get past the picturesque. Why is it so hard? The art world came to terms with this challenge, so too did the legal establishment, even the political scene headed into new waters. It would be easy to blame the budgets of commerce or the constraints of program or even the pressure of success. But that is too easy. Those factors are in fact the kind of limitations that opportunities grow out of. The past decade of economic plenty has, for the most part, smothered the idea that our capitals might enable civic settings or an architecture that is able to looks past lot line boundaries in a dignified manner. The denied opportunities of these settings to be prompted by the Country they occupy is criminal. The public realm is arrested in its development because we refuse to accept Country as a spatial condition. What we seem to be able to embrace is literal and symbolic gestures usually taking the form of a trumped up art installations. All talk – no action. To continue to leave the public realm to the stewardship of mercantile interests is like embracing derivative lending after the global financial crisis.Herein rests an argument for why we need a resourced Government Architect’s office operating not as an isolated lobbyist for business but as a steward of the public realm for both the past and the future. New South Wales is the leading model with Queensland close behind. That is not to say both do not have flaws but current calls for their cessation on the grounds of design parity poorly mask commercial self interest. In Queensland, lobbyists are heavily regulated now with an aim to ensure integrity and accountability. In essence, what I am speaking of will not be found in Reconciliation Action Plans that double as business plans, or the mining of Aboriginal culture for the next marketing gimmick, or even discussions around how to make buildings more ‘Aboriginal’. It will come from the next generation who reject the noxious mono-culture of absorption and embrace a counter trajectory to pursue an architecture of realism.

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Solid-extracellular fluid interaction is believed to play an important role in the strain-rate dependent mechanical behaviors of shoulder articular cartilages. It is believed that the kangaroo shoulder joint is anatomically and biomechanically similar to human shoulder joint and it is easy to get in Australia. Therefore, the kangaroo humeral head cartilage was used as the suitable tissue for the study in this paper. Indentation tests from quasi-static (10-4/sec) to moderately high strain-rate (10-2/sec) on kangaroo humeral head cartilage tissues were conduced to investigate the strain-rate dependent behaviors. A finite element (FE) model was then developed, in which cartilage was conceptualized as a porous solid matrix filled with incompressible fluids. In this model, the solid matrix was modeled as an isotropic hyperelastic material and the percolating fluid follows Darcy’s law. Using inverse FE procedure, the constitutive parameters related to stiffness, compressibility of the solid matrix and permeability were obtained from the experimental results. The effect of solid-extracellular fluid interaction and drag force (the resistance to fluid movement) on strain-rate dependent behavior was investigated by comparing the influence of constant, strain dependent and strain-rate dependent permeability on FE model prediction. The newly developed porohyperelastic cartilage model with the inclusion of strain-rate dependent permeability was found to be able to predict the strain-rate dependent behaviors of cartilages.

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This article analyses co-movements in a wide group of commodity prices during the time period 1992–2010. Our methodological approach is based on the correlation matrix and the networks inside. Through this approach we are able to summarize global interaction and interdependence, capturing the existing heterogeneity in the degrees of synchronization between commodity prices. Our results produce two main findings: (a) we do not observe a persistent increase in the degree of co-movement of the commodity prices in our time sample, however from mid-2008 to the end of 2009 co-movements almost doubled when compared with the average correlation; (b) we observe three groups of commodities which have exhibited similar price dynamics (metals, oil and grains, and oilseeds) and which have increased their degree of co-movement during the sampled period.

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A fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions is presented, generalising the standard monodomain model that describes the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. The model consists of a coupled fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and a system of ordinary differential equations, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. We solve this model by decoupling the space-fractional partial differential equation and the system of ordinary differential equations at each time step. Thus, this means treating the fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model as if the nonlinear source term is only locally Lipschitz. The fractional Riesz space nonlinear reaction-diffusion model is solved using an implicit numerical method with the shifted Grunwald–Letnikov approximation, and the stability and convergence are discussed in detail in the context of the local Lipschitz property. Some numerical examples are given to show the consistency of our computational approach.

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An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

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Solid–interstitial fluid interaction, which depends on tissue permeability, is significant to the strain-rate-dependent mechanical behavior of humeral head (shoulder) cartilage. Due to anatomical and biomechanical similarities to that of the human shoulder, kangaroos present a suitable animal model. Therefore, indentation experiments were conducted on kangaroo shoulder cartilage tissues from low (10−4/s) to moderately high (10−2/s) strain-rates. A porohyperelastic model was developed based on the experimental characterization; and a permeability function that takes into account the effect of strain-rate on permeability (strain-rate-dependent permeability) was introduced into the model to investigate the effect of rate-dependent fluid flow on tissue response. The prediction of the model with the strain-rate-dependent permeability was compared with those of the models using constant permeability and strain-dependent permeability. Compared to the model with constant permeability, the models with strain-dependent and strain-rate-dependent permeability were able to better capture the experimental variation at all strain-rates (p<0.05). Significant differences were not identified between models with strain-dependent and strain-rate-dependent permeability at strain-rate of 5×10−3/s (p=0.179). However, at strain-rate of 10−2/s, the model with strain-rate-dependent permeability was significantly better at capturing the experimental results (p<0.005). The findings thus revealed the significance of rate-dependent fluid flow on tissue behavior at large strain-rates, which provides insights into the mechanical deformation mechanisms of cartilage tissues.

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An interesting, periodic appearance of a new peak has been observed in the reflected spectrum of a Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) inscribed in a germanosilicate fiber during thermal treatment. The new peak occurs on the longer wavelength side of the spectrum during heating and on the shorter wavelength side during cooling, following an identical reverse dynamics. Comparison with a commercial grating with 99.9% reflectivity shows a similar decay dynamics. It is proposed that the distortion due to simultaneous erasure and thermal expansion of the index modulation profile may be responsible for the observed anomaly. The reported results help us in understanding the thermal behavior of FBGs and provide additional insights into the mechanisms responsible for the photosensitivity in germanosilicate fibers.

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Background and Purpose Acute cerebral ischemic events are associated with rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Factors such as luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness have been thought to be important risk factors for plaque rupture. We used a flow-structure interaction model to simulate the interaction between blood flow and atheromatous plaque to evaluate the effect of the degree of luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness on plaque vulnerability. Methods A coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with a flow-plaque interaction simulation was used to perform flow and stress/strain analysis in a stenotic carotid artery model. The stress distribution within the plaque and the flow conditions within the vessel were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2 mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 95%. A rupture stress of 300 kPa was chosen to indicate a high risk of plaque rupture. A 1-sample t test was used to compare plaque stresses with the rupture stress. Results High stress concentrations were found in the plaques in arteries with >70% degree of stenosis. Plaque stresses in arteries with 30% to 70% stenosis increased exponentially as fibrous cap thickness decreased. A decrease of fibrous cap thickness from 0.4 to 0.2 mm resulted in an increase of plaque stress from 141 to 409 kPa in a 40% degree stenotic artery. Conclusions There is an increase in plaque stress in arteries with a thin fibrous cap. The presence of a moderate carotid stenosis (30% to 70%) with a thin fibrous cap indicates a high risk for plaque rupture. Patients in the future may be risk stratified by measuring both fibrous cap thickness and luminal stenosis.

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Data from the eradication of the incursion of Bactrocera papayae Drew and Hancock (Dipt.: Tephritidae) in Australia (1995-1998) are used to assess the significance of various aspects of invasion theory, including the influence of towns on establishment, influence of propagule pressure on the pattern of establishment, and the existence of source-sink dynamics. Because there were no sentinel traps in place, considerable spread had occurred before the eradication campaign started. The distribution of fly density around the epicentre in the town of Cairns and a transect along the main traffic routes to the north and south fitted a Cauchy model with a tail having the same slope as a power model with an exponent of -2.4 extending to 160 km. The Cauchy model indicated that 50% of the flies on the transect would have occurred within 3.2 km of the epicentre, 90% within 13.2 km, and 99% within 60 km. The two major satellites at Mareeba (35 km from the epicentre in Cairns) and Mossman (65 km) were not used for the transect data and had respectively 15 and 30 times the density predicted by the model. The proportion of traps that caught flies (a measure of site occupancy) fell with distance from the epicentre. B. papayae was trapped consistently on only three of the 16 rainforest transects that were surveyed and these were relatively close to urban areas where eradication efforts were intense. Despite there being no eradication effort in the rainforest, the trends to extinction were similar to those in adjacent areas. The strategy of initially concentrating eradication efforts on the core and major satellites while maintaining a quarantine barrier at the airport and the boundaries of the infested area appears to be the key to the containment and rapid eradication of the incursion.

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Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

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We report molecular dynamics simulations of bilayers using a united atom model with explicit solvent molecules. The bilayer consists of the single tail cationic surfactant behenyl trimethyl ammonium chloride (BTMAC) with stearyl alcohol (SA) as the cosurfactant. We study the gel to liquid crystalline transitions in the bilayer by varying the amount of water at fixed BTMAC to SA ratio as well as by varying the BTMAC to SA ratio at fixed water content. The bilayer is found to exist in the tilted, Lβ′ phase at low temperatures, and for the compositions investigated in this study, the Lβ′ to Lα melting transition occurred in the temperature range 330−338 K. For the highest BTMAC to SA composition (2:3 molar ratio), a diffuse headgroup−water interface is observed at lower temperatures, and an increase in the d-spacing occurs prior to the melting transition. This pretransition swelling is accompanied by a sharpening in the water density variation across the headgroup region of the bilayer. Signatures of this swelling effect which can be observed in the alkane density distributions, area per headgroup, and membrane thickness are attributed to the hydrophobic effect. At a fixed bilayer composition, the transition temperature (>338 K) from the Lβ′ to Lα transition obtained for the high water content bilayer (80 wt %) is similar to that obtained with low water content (54.3 wt %), confirming that the melting transition at these water contents is dominated by chain melting.