A new climatic periodisation of the Gold and Guinea Coasts in West Africa, 1750-1798 : a reconstruction of the climate during the slave trade era, including an analysis of the climatically facilitated Trans-Atlantic slave trade

Avsikten med studien är att producera den första rekonstruktionen av det västafrikanska klimatet mellan 1750 och 1798. Kunskapen om det västafrikanska klimatet före 1800-talet är till dags dato bristfällig, vilket gör det svårare att förstå framtida klimatvariationer. Det är bristen på instrumentell meteorologisk data (temperatur, regnmängd, och lufttryck), vilket i princip bara täcker det senaste århundradet, som är orsaken till att tidigare klimat är bristfälligt kartlagda. Klimatet och miljön är även sådana att proxydata från ’naturens arkiv’ (såsom t.ex. trädringar) har begränsad användning. Således är historiska dokument, främst från gästande kulturer/nationer/intressenter, innehållande deskriptiv information om vädret och klimatet, klimatforskarens viktigaste källa. Genom att använda tidigare, för det här syftet, oanvända källor påvisade den här undersökningen att klimatet i västra Afrika och Guldkusten (Ghana) har ändrats sedan 1700-talet. Monsunregnen var svagare och kortvarigare, speciellt den sekundära regnperioden under hösten var betydligt svagare än idag. Det förekom kraftiga årliga variationer i monsunregnen, men sett ur längre tidsperspektiv utmärktes torrare och blötare perioder. Studien kunde också visa en viss korrelation mellan det globala väderfenomenet El Niño och regnperiodens intensitet längs med kusten. Flera torrperioder sammanföll med tidigare registrerade El Niño sekvenser. Speciellt slutet av 1760-talet påverkades kraftigt av El Niño och även det globala klimatet verkar ha genomgått graftiga förändringar just dessa år. På basis av den nya klimatrekonstruktionen genomfördes också en jämförelse av klimatets inverkan på den transatlantiska slavhandeln från 1750 till 1798, en fråga som historikerna gjort anspelningar på i över 30 år. Utförseln av slavar från västra Afrika var som kraftigast under 1700-talets andra hälft. Analysen visade att slavhandeln delvis tilltog i samband med klimatanomalierna.

Parasites of the freshwater fish trade in Brazil: science metric study

This paper presents a science metric study of parasites of fish farming in Brazil, including a significant review of the literature. The methodology used was based on researching articles in three different databases, carried out ​on May 2012: ISI (Institute for Scientific Information), SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online), and Google Academic. The number of articles on fish parasites is mounting (currently over 110), having much increased since 1995. However, the quantity is still low compared with the amount of papers on parasites of fish from natural environments. In Brazil, the farmed fish that have been studied the most are pacu, tilapia and tambaqui. Monogeneans represent the most prevalent group, followed by protozoa and crustaceans. The regions most researched were the southeast and south, making up 84% of the total literature. The main issue addressed in articles was pathology, followed by treatment and record. In conclusion, the treatment of parasitic diseases of farmed fish in Brazil is still incipient, highlighting the importance and usefulness of management practices to prevent the occurrence of health problems.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Spatial distribution and preferential substrate of Neoregelia johannis (Carriére) L.B. Smith (Bromeliaceae) in a disturbed area of Atlantic Rainforest at Ilha Grande, RJ, Brazil

In bromeliad populations, amount of light and available substrates influence individuals spatial organization. In Atlantic Rainforest of Ilha Grande, the heliophylous bromeliad Neoregelia johannis is a large and abundant species. In this forest, it would be expected that N. johannis would occupy stable substrates, as large trunks, large branches, rock boulders or ground, with high sunlight, enough for the bromeliad survivor. In the present work, we analyzed the distribution and most used substrates of N. johannis in secondary forest. We analyzed the frequency of reproductive modes (sexual and vegetative) used by the bromeliad shoots, registering if the shoots were originated from seeds or by vegetative reproduction. The results indicated an aggregated distribution pattern (Ip = 0.052). The preferred substrate was boulders (91%), whereas tree trunks (6%) and the ground (3%) were rarely used. Small and fragile substrates are unstable to support large adults of this species, which may explain the predominant pattern of establishment over boulders within the secondary forest, as the presence of this substrate also results in more opened canopy cover. Approximately 50% of young individuals entered the population by vegetative reproduction. We conclude that the preferential habit and the aggregated distribution of N. johannis are due to the conjunction of preferred substrate with higher amount of light resulting from breaks in tree canopy over areas with rock blocks, and high frequency of recruitment by vegetative reproduction.

Map of the north coast of Russia indicating the proposed trade route of the Obi-railway

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Cultural adaptation and validation of the "Kidney Disease and Quality of Life - Short Form (KDQOL-SF™ 1.3)" in Brazil

The objective of the present study was to translate the Kidney Disease Quality of Life - Short Form (KDQOL-SF&trade;1.3) questionnaire into Portuguese to adapt it culturally and validate it for the Brazilian population. The KDQOL-SF was translated into Portuguese and back-translated twice into English. Patient difficulties in understanding the questionnaire were evaluated by a panel of experts and solved. Measurement properties such as reliability and validity were determined by applying the questionnaire to 94 end-stage renal disease patients on chronic dialysis. The Nottingham Health Profile Questionnaire, the Karnofsky Performance Scale and the Kidney Disease Questionnaire were administered to test validity. Some activities included in the original instrument were considered to be incompatible with the activities usually performed by the Brazilian population and were replaced. The mean scores for the 19 components of the KDQOL-SF questionnaire in Portuguese ranged from 22 to 91. The components "Social support" and "Dialysis staff encouragement" had the highest scores (86.7 and 90.8, respectively). The test-retest reliability and the inter-observer reliability of the instrument were evaluated by the intraclass correlation coefficient. The coefficients for both reliability tests were statistically significant for all scales of the KDQOL-SF (P < 0.001), ranging from 0.492 to 0.936 for test-retest reliability and from 0.337 to 0.994 for inter-observer reliability. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient was higher than 0.80 for most of components. The Portuguese version of the KDQOL-SF questionnaire proved to be valid and reliable for the evaluation of quality of life of Brazilian patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic dialysis.

Emerging market patterns in recycled paper trade

The international recovered paper trade serves two important functions: increasing raw material availability in the paper and board industry and providing economic incentives to recycle. The purpose of this paper is to shed further light on emerging patterns in this trade by empirically analysing the changes in the bilateral trade flows of recycled paper between 1992 and 2008. According to our estimations, two important changes have taken place in the 1990s and 2000s. First, the growing importance of developing economies in global recycled paper trade plays a significant role in import demand as a determinant of trade flows. Second, the changes in global trade patterns necessitate investigating the transportation cost measures used in applied research.

Explaining the Shifts of International Trade in Pulp and Paper Industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. In this paper, we describe the recent trends in the pulp and recovered paper (RP) production, and estimate augmented gravity models of bilateral trade for chemical pulp and RP exports with panel data. According to our results, there is some variation in the effects of the traditional gravity-model variables between pulp grades and RP. The results imply also that, in comparison to export supply, import demand plays a larger role in determining the volume of exports. Finally, it is evident that Asia, particularly China, is the most important driver of chemical pulp and RP trade: China is hungry for fiber, and must import to satisfy its growing needs. Moreover, the speed of China’s growth in chemical pulp and RP imports has been driving the increased significance of planted forests in the exports of hardwood pulp (BHKP) as well.

Comparative quantification of umbilical cord blood CD34+ and CD34+ bright cells using the ProCount&trade;-BD and ISHAGE protocols

The total number of CD34+ cells is the most relevant clinical parameter when selecting human umbilical cord blood (HUCB) for transplantation. The objective of the present study was to compare the two most commonly used CD34+ cell quantification methods (ISHAGE protocol and ProCount&trade; - BD) and analyze the CD34+ bright cells whose 7-amino actinomycin D (7AAD) analysis suggests are apoptotic or dead cells. Twenty-six HUCB samples obtained at the Placental Blood Program of New York Blood Center were evaluated. The absolute numbers of CD34+ cells evaluated by the ISHAGE (with exclusion of 7AAD+ cells) and ProCount&trade; (with exclusion of CD34+ bright cells) were determined. Using the ISHAGE protocol we found 35.6 ± 19.4 CD34+ cells/µL and with the ProCount&trade; method we found 36.6 ± 23.2 CD34+ cells/µL. With the ProCount&trade; method, CD34+ bright cell counts were 9.3 ± 8.2 cells/µL. CD34+ bright and regular cells were individually analyzed by the ISHAGE protocol. Only about 1.8% of the bright CD34+ cells are alive, whereas a small part (19.0%) is undergoing apoptosis and most of them (79.2%) are dead cells. Our study showed that the two methods produced similar results and that 7AAD is important to exclude CD34 bright cells. These results will be of value to assist in the correct counting of CD34+ cells and to choose the best HUCB unit for transplantation, i.e., the unit with the greatest number of potentially viable stem cells for the reconstitution of bone marrow. This increases the likelihood of success of the transplant and, therefore, the survival of the patient.

Determination of myocardial infarction size in rats by echocardiography and tetrazolium staining: correlation, agreements, and simplifications

Triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining and echocardiography (ECHO) are methods used to determine experimental myocardial infarction (MI) size, whose practical applicability should be expanded. Our objectives were to analyze the accuracy of ECHO in determining infarction size in rats during the first days following coronary occlusion and to test whether a simplified single measurement by TTC correctly indicates MI size, as determined by the average value for multiple slices. Infarction was induced in female Wistar rats by coronary artery occlusion and MI size analysis was performed after the acute (7th day) and chronic periods (after 4 weeks) by ECHO matched with TTC. ECHO and TTC showed similar values of MI size (% of left ventricle perimeter) in acute (ECHO: 33 ± 11, TTC: 35 ± 14) and chronic (ECHO: 38 ± 14, TTC: 39 ± 13 periods), and also presented an excellent correlation (r = 0.92, P < 0.001). Although measurements from different heart planes showed discrepancies, a single measurement acquired from the mid-ventricular level by TTC was a good estimate of MI size calculated by the average of multiple planes, with minimal disagreement (Bland-Altman test with mean ratio bias of 0.99 ± 0.07) and close to an ideal correlation (r = 0.99, P < 0.001). In the present study, ECHO was confirmed as a useful method for the determination of MI size even in the acute phase. Also, the single measure of a mid-ventricular section proposed as a simplification of the TTC method is a satisfactory prediction of average MI extension.

Air blast freezing of fruit pulp models in commercial boxes: influence of preferential channels in the bed on freezing times estimating

The freezing times of fruit pulp models packed and conditioned in multi-layered boxes were evaluated under conditions similar to those employed commercially. Estimating the freezing time is a difficult practice due to the presence of significant voids in the boxes, whose influence may be analyzed by means of various methods. In this study, a procedure for estimating freezing time by using the models described in the literature was compared with experimental measurements by collecting time/temperature data. The following results show that the airflow through packages is a significant parameter for freezing time estimation. When the presence of preferential channels was considered, the predicted freezing time in the models could be 10% lower than the experimental values, depending on the method. The isotherms traced as a function of the location of the samples inside the boxes showed the displacement of the thermal center in relation to the geometric center of the product.

Impacts of capacity remunerative mechanisms on cross-border trade

The European ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable generation pose a challenge to the generation adequacy. Many European member states are concerned that energy-only markets alone might not be able to deliver sufficient capacity required to meet the future electricity demand and back up shortfalls of energy from renewable energy sources (RES) during periods of low wind and sun. Many EU members consider to re-design their energy-only markets and establish different forms of capacity remunerative mechanisms (CRMs) to maintain the security of supply. There is a certain concern that market design changes at the level of EU member countries might conflict with the European goal of a single market. As soon as many European markets are highly interconnected, uncoordinated CRMs might create negative crossborder effects and hinder the achievement of the Internal Electricity Market in Europe. The pros and cons of capacity markets are well examined at the national level. However, the cross-border effects of capacity markets within the European market aiming at higher integration have received less attention. This doctoral dissertation examines the cross-border effects of unilateral implementation of CRMs applying both theoretical and case study analyses. The results show that capacity remunerative mechanisms (CRMs) may cause negative cross-border effects, especially if they are implemented unilaterally.