Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of nonoceanic drivers

We review recent progress in understanding the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, and aerosols in decadal-scale predictability and discuss the perspectives for improving the predictive capabilities of current Earth system models (ESMs). These constituents have received relatively little attention because their contribution to the slow climatic manifold is controversial in comparison to that of the large heat capacity of the oceans. Furthermore, their initialization as well as their representation in state-of-the-art climate models remains a challenge. Numerous extraoceanic processes that could be active over the decadal range are proposed. Potential predictability associated with the aforementioned, poorly represented, and scarcely observed constituents of the climate system has been primarily inspected through numerical simulations performed under idealized experimental settings. The impact, however, on practical decadal predictions, conducted with realistically initialized full-fledged climate models, is still largely unexploited. Enhancing initial-value predictability through an improved model initialization appears to be a viable option for land surface, sea ice, and, marginally, the stratosphere. Similarly, capturing future aerosol emission storylines might lead to an improved representation of both global and regional short-term climatic changes. In addition to these factors, a key role on the overall predictive ability of ESMs is expected to be played by an accurate representation of processes associated with specific components of the climate system. These act as “signal carriers,” transferring across the climatic phase space the information associated with the initial state and boundary forcings, and dynamically bridging different (otherwise unconnected) subsystems. Through this mechanism, Earth system components trigger low-frequency variability modes, thus extending the predictability beyond the seasonal scale.

Outcome Analysis of Immediate and Delayed Conservative Breast Surgery Reconstruction With Mastopexy and Reduction Mammaplasty Techniques

Background: Bilateral mammaplasty or mastopexy is frequently used for oncoplastic objectives. However, little information has been available regarding outcome following immediate and delayed reconstruction. Method: Patients were divided into Group I (immediate reconstruction) and Group II (delayed reconstruction). Retrospective review was performed to compare complications, length of hospital stay, revision surgeries, and satisfaction. The associations between the complications with potential risk factors (timing, age, body mass index, smoking, and comorbid medical conditions) were analyzed. Results: There were a total of 144 patients with a mean follow-up of 47 months. Of the 106 patients in Group I, complications occurred in 24 (22.6%), skin necrosis was observed in 7.5%, fat necrosis in 5.6%, and 6.6% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.89 days. Of the 38 patients of the Group II, complications occurred in 12 (31.5%), skin necrosis was observed in 7 (18.4%), fat necrosis in 4 (10.5%), and 5.2% patients developed local recurrence. Mean period of hospitalization was 1.35 days. Increased length of hospital stay greater than 1 day (P < 0.001) and the number of revision surgeries (P = 0.043) were associated with the timing of the reconstruction. In univariate analysis, no difference between groups was found with respect to complication incidence (P = 0.275); however, after adjusting for other risk factors, the probability of complications tend to be higher for Group II (OR = 2.65; 95% confidence interval - 1.01-7.00; P = 0.049). Conclusions: On the basis of the results of our study, the probability of complications tends to be higher for delayed reconstructions, and it is demonstrated that obesity and smoking are risk factors for complications. Ultimately, these data may facilitate the provision of individualized risk information for shared medical decision-making.

Intrinsically Multivariate Predictive Genes

Canalizing genes possess such broad regulatory power, and their action sweeps across a such a wide swath of processes that the full set of affected genes are not highly correlated under normal conditions. When not active, the controlling gene will not be predictable to any significant degree by its subject genes, either alone or in groups, since their behavior will be highly varied relative to the inactive controlling gene. When the controlling gene is active, its behavior is not well predicted by any one of its targets, but can be very well predicted by groups of genes under its control. To investigate this question, we introduce in this paper the concept of intrinsically multivariate predictive (IMP) genes, and present a mathematical study of IMP in the context of binary genes with respect to the coefficient of determination (CoD), which measures the predictive power of a set of genes with respect to a target gene. A set of predictor genes is said to be IMP for a target gene if all properly contained subsets of the predictor set are bad predictors of the target but the full predictor set predicts the target with great accuracy. We show that logic of prediction, predictive power, covariance between predictors, and the entropy of the joint probability distribution of the predictors jointly affect the appearance of IMP genes. In particular, we show that high-predictive power, small covariance among predictors, a large entropy of the joint probability distribution of predictors, and certain logics, such as XOR in the 2-predictor case, are factors that favor the appearance of IMP. The IMP concept is applied to characterize the behavior of the gene DUSP1, which exhibits control over a central, process-integrating signaling pathway, thereby providing preliminary evidence that IMP can be used as a criterion for discovery of canalizing genes.

The evolution of international output differences (1960-2000): From factors to productivity

This article presents a group of exercises of level and growth decomposition of output per worker using cross-country data from 1960 to 2000. It is shown that at least until 1975 factors of production (capital and education) were the main source of output dispersion across economies and that productivity variance was considerably smaller than in late years. Only after this date the prominence of productivity started to show up in the data, as the majority of the literature has found. The growth decomposition exercises showed that the reversal of relative importance of productivity vis-a-vis factors is explained by the very good (bad) performance of productivity of fast (slow) growing economies. Although growth in the period, on average, is mostly due to factors accumulation, its variance is explained by productivity.

Factors affecting the technical efficiency of production of the Brazilian banking system : a comparison of four statistical models in the context of data envelopment analysis

This paper uses an output oriented Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) measure of technical efficiency to assess the technical efficiencies of the Brazilian banking system. Four approaches to estimation are compared in order to assess the significance of factors affecting inefficiency. These are nonparametric Analysis of Covariance, maximum likelihood using a family of exponential distributions, maximum likelihood using a family of truncated normal distributions, and the normal Tobit model. The sole focus of the paper is on a combined measure of output and the data analyzed refers to the year 2001. The factors of interest in the analysis and likely to affect efficiency are bank nature (multiple and commercial), bank type (credit, business, bursary and retail), bank size (large, medium, small and micro), bank control (private and public), bank origin (domestic and foreign), and non-performing loans. The latter is a measure of bank risk. All quantitative variables, including non-performing loans, are measured on a per employee basis. The best fits to the data are provided by the exponential family and the nonparametric Analysis of Covariance. The significance of a factor however varies according to the model fit although it can be said that there is some agreements between the best models. A highly significant association in all models fitted is observed only for nonperforming loans. The nonparametric Analysis of Covariance is more consistent with the inefficiency median responses observed for the qualitative factors. The findings of the analysis reinforce the significant association of the level of bank inefficiency, measured by DEA residuals, with the risk of bank failure.

Erosion factors and magnetic susceptibility in differet compartments of a slope in Gilbués-PI, Brazil

A erosão é a forma de degradação do solo com efeitos na produtividade das culturas e na poluição do meio ambiente. Para compreender a variabilidade espacial desse fenômeno, técnicas geoestatísticas e conceitos da relação solo-paisagem podem ser utilizados para identificar compartimentos da paisagem com diferentes potenciais de erosão. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estabelecer elementos para a compreensão dos fatores de erosão em compartimentos da paisagem e das relações com a suscetibilidade magnética (SM) dos solos de uma vertente no município de Gilbués -PI. Foram montadas malhas de amostragem nos compartimentos I e II, com 121 pontos, e compartimento III, com 99 pontos, espaçados a cada 10 m. Houve diferença significativa para erodibilidade (K) e risco de erosão (RE); a variabilidade espacial da SM foi menor do que a dos fatores de erosão do solo. As perdas de solo (A), potencial natural de erosão (PNE), RE e SM tiveram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, indicando dependência da erosão ao relevo. Concluiu-se que as perdas de solo, o potencial natural de erosão e o risco de erosão apresentaram relação espacial com o fator topográfico, comprovando a dependência dos fatores de erosão ao relevo. A suscetibilidade magnética do solo pode ser utilizada como variável auxiliar na quantificação indireta do fator erodibilidade e do risco de erosão do solo.

Relationship of upper-limb and thoracic muscle strength to 6-min walk distance in COPD patients

Study objectives: This study was developed to investigate the influence of thoracic and upperlimb muscle function on 6-min walk distance (6MWD) in patients with COPD.Design: A prospective, cross-sectional study.Setting: the pulmonary rehabilitation center of a university hospital.Patients: Thirty-eight patients with mild to very severe COPD were evaluated.Measurements and results: Pulmonary function and baseline dyspnea index (BDI) were assessed, handgrip strength, maximal inspiratory pressure (Pimax), and 6MWD were measured, and the one-repetition maximum (1RM) was determined for each of four exercises (bench press, lat pull down, leg extension, and leg press) performed on gymnasium equipment. Quality of life was assessed using the St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ). We found statistically significant positive correlations between 6MWD and body weight (r = 0.32; p < 0.05), BDI (r = 0.50; p < 0.01), FEV, (r = 0.33; p < 0.05), PImax (r = 0.53; p < 0.01), and all values of 1RM. A statistically significant negative correlation was observed between 6MWD and dyspnea at the end of the 6-min walk test (r = -0.29; p < 0.05), as well as between 6MWD and the SGRQ activity domain (r = -0.45; p < 0.01) and impact domain (r = -0.34; p < 0.05) and total score (r = -0.40; p < 0.01). Multiple regression analysis selected body weight, BDI, Pimax, and lat pull down IRM as predictive factors for 6MWD (R-2 = 0.589).Conclusions: the results of this study showed the importance of the skeletal musculature of the thorax and upper limbs in submaximal exercise tolerance and could open new perspectives for training programs designed to improve functional activity in COPD patients.

Cell blocks allow reliable evaluation of expression of basal (CK5/6) and luminal (CK8/18) cytokeratins and smooth muscle actin (SMA) in breast carcinoma

Objective:Gene expression studies have revealed several molecular subtypes of breast carcinoma with distinct clinical and biological behaviours. DNA microarray studies correlated with immunohistochemical profiling of breast carcinomas using cytokeratin (CK) markers, Her2/neu, oestrogen receptor (ER), and basal myoepithelial cell markers have identified five breast tumour subtypes: (i) luminal A (ER+; Her2/neu-), (ii) luminal B (ER+; Her2/neu+), (iii) Her2 overexpression (ER-; Her2/neu+), (iv) basal-like (ER-; Her2/neu-, CK5/6 and 14+), and (v) negative for all markers. Luminal carcinomas express cytokeratins in a luminal pattern (CK8/18), and the basal-like type expresses CK5/6 and CK14 or basal epithelial cell markers. CK5/6, CK8/18, and smooth muscle actin (SMA) expression were assessed in cell blocks and compared with expression in surgical specimens.Methods:Sixty-two cases of breast carcinoma diagnosed by fine needle aspiration cytology with cell blocks and available surgical specimens were included. Cell blocks containing at least 10 high-power fields each with at least 10 tumour cells and surgical specimens were immunostained for CK5/6, CK8/18 and SMA.Results:Percentage sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were, respectively, 77, 100, 100, 92 and 94 for CK5/6; 98, 66, 96, 80 and 95 for CK8/18; and 92, 96, 85, 98 and 95 for SMA.Conclusion:The identification of CK5/6, CK8/18 and SMA by immunohistochemistry in cell blocks can be a reliable method that yields results close to those obtained in surgical specimens, and can contribute to the classification of breast carcinomas with luminal and basal expression patterns, providing helpful information in the choice of treatment and in the evaluation of prognostic and predictive factors.

Analysis of the electrical conductivity in milking fractions as a mean for detecting and characterizing mastitis in goats

The aim of the work was to study the effect of milking fraction on electrical conductivity of milk (EC) to improve its use in dairy goat mastitis detection using automatic EC measurements during milking. The experiment was carried out on a group of 84 Murciano-Granadina goats (28 primiparous and 56 multiparous). Goats were in the fourth month of lactation. A linear mixed model was used to analyse the relationship between EC or somatic cell count (SCC) of gland milk and parity, mammary gland health status, analysed fraction (first 100 mL=F-1; machine milk=F-2; and stripping milk=F-3) and their first order interactions. Additionally, the mastitis detection characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value) of SCC and EC were studied at different thresholds.All factors considered were significant for EC and SCC. EC decreased significantly as milking progressed (from F-1 to F-3) in both healthy and infected glands. EC was not significantly different between healthy and infected glands in F-1 and F-2 fractions, but EC of healthy glands (5.01 mS/cm) was significantly lower than in infected glands (5.03 mS/cm) at F-3.Mastitis detection characteristics of EC did not differ amongst studied fractions. The small significant difference of EC between healthy and infected glands obtained in F-3 fraction did not yield better sensitivity results compared to F-1 and F-2. The best EC mastitis detection characteristics were obtained at 5.20 mS/cm threshold (sensitivity of 70% and specificity of 50%). The best SCC mastitis detection characteristics were obtained at 300,000 cells/mL threshold and F-3 fraction (sensitivity of 85% and specificity of 65%).It was concluded that mastitis detection characteristics of EC were similar in the three milking fractions analysed, being slightly better for SCC in F-3 fraction. As shown in previous studies, there are no factors other than the mammary gland health status that affect milk EC and should be considered in the algorithms for mastitis detection to improve the results. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of physical and chemical factors during foraging and culture of the symbiont fungus in Atta sexdens rubropilosa (Hymenoptera : Formicidae)

The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of physical and chemical factors on transport and use of substrate for Atta sexdens rubropilosa workers. Three types of rectangular fragments were used to study the physical influence factors: filter paper with paraffin, filter paper without paraffin and polyester film. To study the chemical factors, some fragments were impregnated with organic extract of orange albedo, others were soaked with soybean oil and for the remaining ones nothing was applied. The following parameters were evaluated: (i) attractiveness of substrate for transport and number of loading workers per treatment; (ii) foraged material incorporation; (iii) rejection by numbers of fragments deposited in the garbage or beside the fungus garden. All the polyester film fragments carried out to the fungus garden were subsequently rejected. We verified that chemical factors of the substrate were more quickly detected by the workers, whereas physical factors were used as a criterion in the decision-making to reject or accept the substrate collected.

Testing the ecomorphological hypothesis in a headwater riffles fish assemblage of the rio São Francisco, southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Light-Front model of transition form-factors in heavy meson decay

Electroweak transition form factors of heavy meson decays are important ingredients in the extraction of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix elements from experimental data. In this work, within a. light-front framework, we calculate electroweak transition form factor for the semileptonic decay of D mesons into a pion or a kaon. The model results underestimate in both cases the new data of CLEO for the larger momentum transfers accessible in the experiment. We discuss possible reasons for that in order to improve the model.

Virulence Factors IN Fungi of Systemic Mycoses

Fatores de virulência em fungos de micoses sistêmicaFungos patogênicos causadores de micoses sistêmicas possuem vários fatores que permitem seu crescimento nas condições adversas oferecidas pelo hospedeiro, propiciando o estabelecimento da relação parasitária e contribuindo no processo de doença. Esses fatores são conhecidos como fatores de virulência auxiliando no desenvolvimento da infecção e interferindo com a patogênese das micoses. O presente trabalho avalia os fatores de virulência em fungos patogênicos como Blastomyces dermatitidis, Coccidioides immitis, Cryptococcus neoformans, Histoplasma capsulatum e Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, em relação à termotolerância, dimorfismo, componentes da parede celular ou cápsula, bem como a produção de enzimas. Os fatores de virulência auxiliam na aderência, colonização, disseminação e habilidade do fungo para resistir a ambientes hostis e escapar dos mecanismos da resposta imune do hospedeiro.Tanto os fatores de virulência apresentados por diferentes fungos, como os mecanismos de defesa oferecidos pelo hospedeiro requerem ação e interação de processos complexos, cujo conhecimento permitirá a melhor compreensão da patogenia das micoses sistêmicas.