Lower-tropospheric humidity: climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ

The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity�a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and the relationship to ITCZ characteristics.

Precipitation over the past four centuries in the Dieshan Mountains as inferred from tree rings: An introduction to an HHT-based method

To improve our understanding of the Asian monsoon system, we developed a hydroclimate reconstruction in a marginal monsoon shoulder region for the period prior to the industrial era. Here, we present the first moisture sensitive tree-ring chronology, spanning 501 years for the Dieshan Mountain area, a boundary region of the Asian summer monsoon in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. This reconstruction was derived from 101 cores of 68 old-growth Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) trees. We introduce a Hilbert–Huang Transform (HHT) based standardization method to develop the tree-ring chronology, which has the advantages of excluding non-climatic disturbances in individual tree-ring series. Based on the reliable portion of the chronology, we reconstructed the annual (prior July to current June) precipitation history since 1637 for the Dieshan Mountain area and were able to explain 41.3% of the variance. The extremely dry years in this reconstruction were also found in historical documents and are also associated with El Niño episodes. Dry periods were reconstructed for 1718–1725, 1766–1770 and 1920–1933, whereas 1782–1788 and 1979–1985 were wet periods. The spatial signatures of these events were supported by data from other marginal regions of the Asian summer monsoon. Over the past four centuries, out-of-phase relationships between hydroclimate variations in the Dieshan Mountain area and far western Mongolia were observed during the 1718–1725 and 1766–1770 dry periods and the 1979–1985 wet period.

Climatic drivers of hourly to yearly tree radius variations along a 6°C natural warming gradient

Climate affects the timing, rate and dynamics of tree growth, over time scales ranging from seconds to centuries. Monitoring how a tree's stem radius varies over these time scales can provide insight into intra-annual stem dynamics and improve our understanding of climate impacts on tree physiology and growth processes. Here, we quantify the response of radial conifer stem size to environmental fluctuations via a novel assessment of tree circadian cycles. We analyze four years of sub-hourly data collected from 56 larch and spruce trees growing along a natural temperature gradient of ∼6 °C in the central Swiss Alps. During the growing season, tree stem diameters were greatest at mid-morning and smallest in the late evening, reflecting the daily cycle of water uptake and loss. Along the gradient, amplitudes calculated from the stem radius cycle were ∼50% smaller at the upper site (∼2200 m a.s.l.) relative to the lower site (∼800 m a.s.l.). We show changes in precipitation, temperature and cloud cover have a substantial effect on typical growing season diurnal cycles; amplitudes were nine times smaller on rainy days (>10 mm), and daily amplitudes are approximately 40% larger when the mean daily temperature is 15–20 °C than when it is 5–10 °C. We find that over the growing season in the sub-alpine forests, spruce show greater daily stem water movement than larch. However, under projected future warming, larch could experience up to 50% greater stem water use, which may severely affect future growth on already dry sites. Our data further indicate that because of the confounding influences of radial growth and short-term water dynamics on stem size, conventional methodology probably overstates the effect of water-linked meteorological variables (i.e. precipitation and relative humidity) on intra-annual tree growth. We suggest future studies use intra-seasonal measurements of cell development and consider whether climatic factors produce reversible changes in stem diameter. These study design elements may help researchers more accurately quantify and attribute changes in forest productivity in response to future warming.

Influence of the background wind on the local soil moisture-precipitation feedback

The importance of soil moisture anomalies on airmass convection over semiarid regions has been recognized in several studies. The underlying mechanisms remain partly unclear. An open question is why wetter soils can result in either an increase or a decrease of precipitation (positive or negative soil moisture–precipitation feedback, respectively). Here an idealized cloud-resolving modeling framework is used to explore the local soil moisture–precipitation feedback. The approach is able to replicate both positive and negative feedback loops, depending on the environmental parameters. The mechanism relies on horizontal soil moisture variations, which may develop and intensify spontaneously. The positive expression of the feedback is associated with the initiation of convection over dry soil patches, but the convective cells then propagate over wet patches where they strengthen and preferentially precipitate. The negative feedback may occur when the wind profile is too weak to support the propagation of convective features from dry to wet areas. Precipitation is then generally weaker and falls preferentially over dry patches. The results highlight the role of the midtropospheric flow in determining the sign of the feedback. A key element of the positive feedback is the exploitation of both low convective inhibition (CIN) over dry patches (for the initiation of convection) and high CAPE over wet patches (for the generation of precipitation).

Stable-Isotopic Composition of Precipitation Over the Northern Slope of the Central Himalaya

Stable-water-isotope data (deltaD and delta(18)O) from three groups of samples (fresh-snow and snow-pit samples collected on Qomolangma (Mount Everest) and Xixabangma during field seasons 1997,1998 and 2001, and precipitation samples collected at Tingri station during summer 2000) are presented and used to survey the isotopic composition of precipitation over the northern slope of the central Himalaya. Multi-year snow-pit samples on Qomolangma have a local meteoric water-line (slope = 8) close to the global value. Deuterium excess (d = deltaD - 8delta(18)O) values at Tingri are much lower than those in fresh snow from Qomolangma, probably due to differences in moisture source and air-mass trajectories as well as local weather conditions. There is no obvious seasonal trend for d values in the Qomolangma region. A negative relationship exists between delta(18)O and d values in both fresh snow on Qomolangma and precipitation at Tingri. Fresh-snow samples collected from different altitudes on Xixabangma allow us to investigate the altitude effect on delta(18)O values in snow. Of four storm events, only one has an obvious altitude effect on delta(18)O variation and a very low gradient of -0.1% per 100 in elevation.

Snow Accumulation Rate on Qomolangma (Mount Everest), Himalaya: Synchroneity With Sites Across the Tibetan Plateau on 50-100 Year Timescales

Annual-layer thickness data, spanning AD 1534-2001, from an ice core from East Rongbuk Coll on Qomolangma (Mount Everest, Himalaya) yield an age-depth profile that deviates systematically from a constant accumulation-rate analytical model. The profile clearly shows that the mean accumulation rate has changed every 50-100 years. A numerical model was developed to determine the magnitude of these multi-decadal-scale rates. The model was used to obtain a time series of annual accumulation. The mean annual accumulation rate decreased from similar to 0.8 m ice equivalent in the 1500s to similar to 0.3 m in the mid-1800s. From similar to 1880 to similar to 1970 the rate increased. However, it has decreased since similar to 1970. Comparison with six other records from the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau shows that the changes in accumulation in East Rongbuk Col are broadly consistent with a regional pattern over much of the Plateau. This suggests that there may be an overarching mechanism controlling precipitation and mass balance over this area. However, a record from Dasuopu, only 125 km northwest of Qomolangma and 700 m higher than East Rongbuk Col, shows a maximum in accumulation during the 1800s, a time during which the East Rongbuk Col and Tibetan Plateau ice-core and tree-ring records show a minimum. This asynchroneity may be due to altitudinal or seasonal differences in monsoon versus westerly moisture sources or complex mountain meteorology.

Stable-Isotope Time Series and Precipitation Origin from Firn-Core and Snow Samples, Altai Glaciers, Siberia

In the summers of 2001 and 2002, glacio-climatological research was performed at 4110-4120 m a.s.l. on the Belukha snow/firn plateau, Siberian Altai. Hundreds of samples from snow pits and a 21 m snow/firn core were collected to establish the annual/seasonal/monthly depth-accumulation scale, based on stable-isotope records, stratigraphic analyses and meteorological and synoptic data. The fluctuations of water stable-isotope records show well-preserved seasonal variations. The delta(18)O and delta D relationships in precipitation, snow pits and the snow/firn core have the same slope to the covariance as that of the global meteoric water line. The origins of precipitation nourishing the Belukha plateau were determined based on clustering analysis of delta(18)O and d-excess records and examination of synoptic atmospheric patterns. Calibration and validation of the developed clusters occurred at event and monthly timescales with about 15% uncertainty. Two distinct moisture sources were shown: oceanic sources with d-excess < 12 parts per thousand, and the Aral-Caspian closed drainage basin sources with d-excess > 12 parts per thousand. Two-thirds of the annual accumulation was from oceanic precipitation, of which more than half had isotopic ratios corresponding to moisture evaporated over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation from the Arctic/Pacific Ocean had the lowest deuterium excess, contributing one-tenth to annual accumulation.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”*

Strong tropical volcanic eruptions have significant effects on global and regional temperatures. Their effects on precipitation, however, are less well understood. Analyzing hydroclimatic anomalies after 14 strong eruptions during the last 400 years in climate reconstructions and model simulations, a reduction of the Asian and African summer monsoons and an increase of south-central European summer precipitation in the year following the eruption was found. The simulations provide evidence for a dynamical link between these phenomena. The weaker monsoon circulations weaken the northern branch of the Hadley circulation, alter the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–European sector, and increase precipitation over Europe. This mechanism is able to explain, for instance, the wet summer in parts of Europe during the “year without a summer” of 1816, which up to now has not been explained. This study underlines the importance of atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and midlatitudes to better understand the regional climate response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

The water vapour flux above Switzerland and its role in the August 2005 extreme precipitation and flooding

The water budget approach is applied to an atmospheric box above Switzerland (hereafter referred to as the “Swiss box”) to quantify the atmospheric water vapour flux using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalyses. The results confirm that the water vapour flux through the Swiss box is highly temporally variable, ranging from 1 to 5 · 107 kg/s during settled anticyclonic weather, but increasing in size by a factor of ten or more during high speed currents of water vapour. Overall, Switzerland and the Swiss box “import” more water vapour than it “exports”, but the amount gained remains only a small fraction (1% to 5%) of the total available water vapour passing by. High inward water vapour fluxes are not necessarily linked to high precipitation episodes. The water vapour flux during the August 2005 floods, which caused severe damage in central Switzerland, is examined and an assessment is made of the computed water vapour fluxes compared to high spatio-temporal rain gauge and radar observations. About 25% of the incoming water vapour flux was stored in Switzerland. The computed water vapour fluxes from ECMWF data compare well with the mean rain gauge observations and the combined rain-gauge radar precipitation products.

Precipitation isoscape of high reliefs: interpolation scheme designed and tested for monthly resolved precipitation oxygen isotope records of an Alpine domain

Stable oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric precipitation (δ18Op) was scrutinized from 39 stations distributed over Switzerland and its border zone. Monthly amount-weighted δ18Op values averaged over the 1995–2000 period showed the expected strong linear altitude dependence (−0.15 to −0.22‰ per 100 m) only during the summer season (May–September). Steeper gradients (~ −0.56 to −0.60‰ per 100 m) were observed for winter months over a low elevation belt, while hardly any altitudinal difference was seen for high elevation stations. This dichotomous pattern could be explained by the characteristically shallower vertical atmospheric mixing height during winter season and provides empirical evidence for recently simulated effects of stratified atmospheric flow on orographic precipitation isotopic ratios. This helps explain "anomalous" deflected altitudinal water isotope profiles reported from many other high relief regions. Grids and isotope distribution maps of the monthly δ18Op have been calculated over the study region for 1995–1996. The adopted interpolation method took into account both the variable mixing heights and the seasonal difference in the isotopic lapse rate and combined them with residual kriging. The presented data set allows a point estimation of δ18Op with monthly resolution. According to the test calculations executed on subsets, this biannual data set can be extended back to 1992 with maintained fidelity and, with a reduced station subset, even back to 1983 at the expense of faded reliability of the derived δ18Op estimates, mainly in the eastern part of Switzerland. Before 1983, reliable results can only be expected for the Swiss Plateau since important stations representing eastern and south-western Switzerland were not yet in operation.