The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Public policy, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

Public policymakers are caught in a dilemma : there is a growing list of urgent issues to address, at the same time that public expenditure is being cut. Adding to this dilemma is a system of government designed in the 19th century and competing theories of policymaking dating back to the 1950s. The interlinked problems of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation are cases in point. As the climate changes, there will be more frequent, intense and/or prolonged disasters such as floods and bushfires. Clearly a well integrated whole of government response is needed, but how might this be achieved? Further, how could academic research contribute to resolving this dilemma in a way that would produce something of theoretical interest as well as practical outcomes for policymakers? These are the questions addressed by our research via a comparative analysis of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. Our findings suggest that there is a need to: improve community engagement and communication; refocus attention on resilience; improve interagency communication and collaboration; and, develop institutional arrangements that support continual improvement and policy learning. These findings have implications for all areas of public policy theory and practice.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 - 2007 in Shandong province, China [山东省乙型肝炎、肝硬化及肝癌流行趋势分析]

Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer during 1990 to 2007 in Shandong province, and to evaluate the effectiveness of hepatitis B prevention and control measures, so as to provide evidence for policy-making. Methods Based on the routine incidence data of hepatitis B, mortality data of hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, liver cancer and demographic data, the incidence rate, mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate were calculated and analyzed with simple linear regression model. Results A total of 437094 cases of hepatitis B were reported during 1990 - 2007 with an average yearly morbidity of 27.32 per 100 000 persons and a decreased trend for the 0-9 years old children. At the same time, the adjusted mortality rate for hepatitis B and liver cirrhosis showed a decreased trend and the combined mortality rate decreased from 17.55 /100 000 in 1990 to 4.01 /100 000 in 2007. The mortality of liver cancer was stable during this time (P = 0. 9998). Conclusion Immunization of hepatitis B vaccine may have lowered the incidence of hepatitis B in the target population and the overall mortality rates of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. Abstract in Chinese 目的 了解山东省1990～2007年乙肝、肝硬化和肝癌的流行状况及变化趋势,初步评价乙肝预防控制措施的效果,为今后防治决策制定提供参考. 方法 根据报告的乙肝发病资料和乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌死亡资料以及历年人口资料,利用发病率、死亡率、年龄别死亡率等指标对上述3种疾病进行流行趋势的分析,并建立简单线性回归模型进行统计分析. 结果 1990～2007年山东省共报告乙肝病例437 094例,年均总发病率为27.32/10万,并呈上升趋势,而0～9岁年龄组的发病率呈显著下降趋势.乙肝和肝硬化调整死亡率下降趋势明显,两者合并死亡率由1990年的17.55/10万下降到2007年的4.01/10万.肝癌调整死亡率基本稳定(P=0.999 8). 结论 做好乙肝疫苗的免疫接种不仅可降低目标人群乙肝的发病,并将最终降低与此相关的肝硬化和肝癌的死亡率.

Problems in the current vaccination assurance policy and possible solutions [试述现行计划免疫保偿制存在的问题与改进对策]

Vaccination assurance was developed in 1980s to increase vaccine uptake. However, there have been problems in the concept, scope, management and claim. Possible solutions include regulating vaccination fee and developing vaccination insurance. Abstract in Chinese 计划免疫保偿制是20世纪80年代初我国卫生事业改革中出现的一种新生事物,为促进计划免疫工作开展发挥了重要作用.但随着人们对健康需求的不断提高和计划免疫工作的深入开展,计划免疫保偿制中的许多内容已经不适应当前的预防接种工作,亟待规范和提高.

Lung health care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Queenslanders : breathing easy is not so easy

Objectives In Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Queensland, to (a) determine the disease burden of common chronic lung diseases and (b) identify areas of need with respect to lung health services. Methods Literature reviews and analyses of hospitalisation and mortality data were used to describe disease epidemiology and available programs and services. Key stakeholder interviews and an online survey of health professionals were used to evaluate lung health services across the state and to identify services, needs and gaps. Results Morbidity and mortality from respiratory diseases in the Indigenous population is substantially higher than the non-Indigenous population across all age groups and regions. There are inadequate clinical services and resources to address disease prevention, detection, intervention and management in an evidence-based and culturally acceptable fashion. There is a lack of culturally appropriate educational resources and management programs, insufficient access to appropriately engaged Indigenous health professionals, a lack of multi-disciplinary specialist outreach teams, fragmented information systems and inadequate coordination of care. Conclusions Major initiatives are required at all levels of the healthcare system to adequately address service provision for Indigenous Queenslanders with lung diseases, including high quality research to investigate the causes for poor lung health, which are likely to be multifactorial.

Literacy education in a changing policy environment : introduction

Literacy has long been at the heart of discussions about improving the quality and equitable distribution of educational outcomes. The last decade, however, has seen a dramatic redirection of policy effort in this regard. The effects of this policy redirection are playing out now; it may be that new policy emphases may have consequences for how educators think about what matters in literacy, how they can, and should, make judgements about what matters, and how they can, and should, act on those judgements. This issue of the Journal focuses on the changing landscape of policy and practice in literacy education. Educators in many countries have encountered increasingly intensive government moves to centralise and standardise school education. In Australia national testing of literacy and numeracy began relatively recently. The results for individual schools have been publically reported since 2009. Following trialling in 2010 and 2011, most states and sectors are now beginning to implement new Australian curriculum in English, Mathematics, Science and History...

Translating vision research into policy and practice to improve the visibility, and hence safety, or road workers at night

The process of translating research into policy and practice is not well understood. This paper uses a case study approach to interpret an example of translation with respect to theoretical approaches identified in the literature. The case study concerns research into “biological motion” or “biomotion”: when lights are placed on the moveable joints of the body and the person moves in a dark setting, there is immediate and accurate recognition of the human form although only the lights can be seen. QUT was successful in gaining Australian Research Council funding with the support of the predecessors of the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR) to research the biomotion effect in road worker clothing using reflective tape rather than lights, and this resulted in the incorporation of biomotion marking into AS/NZS 4602.1 2011. The most promising approach to understanding the success of this translation, SWOV’s “knowledge utilisation approach” provided some insights but was more descriptive than predictive and provided “necessary but not sufficient” conditions for translation. In particular, the supportive efforts of TMR staff engaged in the review and promulgation of national standards were critical in this case. A model of the conclusions is presented. The experiences gained in this case should provide insights into the processes involved in effectively translating research into practice.

Estimation of the burden of malignant neoplasms by DALYs in Shandong Province [应用伤残调整寿命年测量山东省恶性肿瘤疾病负担的研究]

Objective: To evaluate the burden of malignant neoplasms in Shandong Province in order to provide scientific evidence for policy-making. Methods: The main data for this study were from Shandong third cause of death sampling survey in 2006 and Shandong 2007 cancer prevalence survey. YLLs, YLDs, DALYs and disability weights of each type of cancers were calculated according to the global burdens of disease （GBD） methodology. The direct method was used to estimate YLDs. The uncertainty analysis was conducted following the methodology in GBD study. Results: The total cancers burden in Shandong population was 1 383 thousands DALYs. Lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer and esophagus cancer were the top four cancers with the highest health burden. The burden of the four major cancers together accounted for 71.45% of the total burden of all cancers. 95% of the total burden of malignant tumors was caused by premature death, and only 5.26% of the total cancer burden was due to disability. The uncertainty of total burden estimate was around±11%， the uncertainty of YLDs was bigger than that of YLLs. Conclusion: The health burden due to cancers in Shandong population is heavier than that of the national average level. Liver cancer, lung cancer and stomach cancer should be the major cancers for disease control and prevention in Shandong.

Spreading peak demand for urban rail transit through differential fare policy : a review of empirical evidence

More evenly spread demand for public transport throughout a day can reduce transit service provider‟s total asset and labour costs. A plausible peak spreading strategy is to increase peak fare and/or to reduce off-peak fare. This paper reviews relevant empirical studies for urban rail systems, as rail transit plays a key role in Australian urban passenger transport and experiences severe peak loading variability. The literature is categorised into four groups: a) passenger opinions on willingness to change time for travel, b) valuations of displacement time using stated preference technique, c) simulations of peak spreading based on trip scheduling models, and: d) real-world cases of peak spreading using differential fare. Policy prescription is advised to take into account impacts of traveller‟s time flexibility and joint effects of mode shifting and peak spreading. Although focusing on urban rail, arguments in this paper are relevant to public transport in general with values to researchers and practitioners.

A qualitative investigation of drug use among Pakistani road users

Background Statistics on drug use by Pakistani drivers are not available, yet considerable numbers of drivers are believed to be drug addicted. The National Drug Abuse Assessment 2006/07, conducted by the United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime and the Ministry of Narcotics Control Pakistan reported that opiate users numbered 628,000, of which 77%were chronic heroin abusers. Injecting drug users have reportedly doubled in the decade to 2006 and drug use has been linked with many major crashes involving professional drivers. Aims This study explored a broad range of risk taking behaviours of road users, including drug use. It also investigated associations between risky road use and fatalism and other cultural beliefs. Methods This paper reports findings relating to drug driving in the cities of Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Thirty semi-structured interviews were conducted with bus, truck, and taxi drivers, policy makers and field police officers. Results Interviews suggested widespread use of illicit drugs, particularly among bus, truck and taxi drivers. Reasons for drug use included recreational purposes, stimulants during long driving episodes, and substance addiction. Furthermore, the use of drugs and any association with road crashes was generally viewed as linked to fatalism rather than to any fault of an individual. In other words, people did not believe there was an association between drug use and road crashes, even if they had personally experienced such. Police knowledge of drug use among drivers was evident, although there is no formal drug driving testing regime in Pakistan. Discussion and conclusions The substantial increase in drug use among the population in recent years highlights a significant public health challenge in Pakistan. This qualitative research, although recognized as not representative of the broader population, suggests that there is significant cause for concern about drug driving, especially among professional drivers, and a need for further investigation and intervention.

Misperceptions about child sex offenders

Sexual offending against children is a highly emotive issue. It is nonetheless important that public policy initiatives to prevent and/or respond to child sexual abuse are based on the available evidence about child sex offenders. This paper addresses five common misperceptions about the perpetrators of sexual offences against children. Specifically, the issues addressed include whether all child sex offenders are ‘paedophiles’, who sexually abuse children, whether most child sex offenders were victims of sexual abuse themselves, rates of recidivism among child sex offenders and the number of children sex offenders typically abuse before they are detected by police. The evidence outlined in this paper highlights that there are few black and white answers to these questions. Perpetrators of sexual crimes against children are not, contrary to widespread opinion, a homogenous group. Rather, there are a number of varied offending profiles that characterise child sex offenders. Gaining an understanding of the nuances of this offender population is critical if children are to be protected from sexual abuse.

InterLACE : a new international collaboration for a Life course approach to women's reproductive health and chronic disease events.

Evidence from population-based studies of women increasingly points to the inter-related nature of reproductive health, lifestyle, and chronic disease risk. This paper describes the recently established International Collaboration for a Life Course Approach to Reproductive Health and Chronic Disease. InterLACE aims to advance the evidence base for women's health policy beyond associations from disparate studies by means of systematic and culturally sensitive synthesis of longitudinal data. Currently InterLACE draws on individual level data for reproductive health and chronic disease among 200,000 women from over thirteen studies of women's health in seven countries. The rationale for this multi-study research programme is set out in terms of a life course perspective to reproductive health. The research programme will build a comprehensive picture of reproductive health through life in relation to chronic disease risk. Although combining multiple international studies poses methodological challenges, InterLACE represents an invaluable opportunity to strength evidence to guide the development of timely and tailored preventive health strategies.

Monitoring policy and actions on food environments : rationale and outline of the INFORMAS policy engagement and communication strategies

The International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) proposes to collect performance indicators on food policies, actions and environments related to obesity and non-communicable diseases. This paper reviews existing communications strategies used for performance indicators and proposes the approach to be taken for INFORMAS. Twenty-seven scoring and rating tools were identified in various fields of public health including alcohol, tobacco, physical activity, infant feeding and food environments. These were compared based on the types of indicators used and how they were quantified, scoring methods, presentation and the communication and reporting strategies used. There are several implications of these analyses for INFORMAS: the ratings/benchmarking approach is very commonly used, presumably because it is an effective way to communicate progress and stimulate action, although this has not been formally evaluated; the tools used must be trustworthy, pragmatic and policy-relevant; multiple channels of communication will be needed; communications need to be tailored and targeted to decision-makers; data and methods should be freely accessible. The proposed communications strategy for INFORMAS has been built around these lessons to ensure that INFORMAS's outputs have the greatest chance of being used to improve food environments.

Monitoring and benchmarking government policies and actions to improve the healthiness of food environments : a proposed Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index

Government action is essential to increase the healthiness of food environments and reduce obesity, diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and their related inequalities. This paper proposes a monitoring framework to assess government policies and actions for creating healthy food environments. Recommendations from relevant authoritative organizations and expert advisory groups for reducing obesity and NCDs were examined, and pertinent components were incorporated into a comprehensive framework for monitoring government policies and actions. A Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) was developed, which comprises a ‘policy��� component with seven domains on specific aspects of food environments, and an ‘infrastructure support’ component with seven domains to strengthen systems to prevent obesity and NCDs. These were revised through a week-long consultation process with international experts. Examples of good practice statements are proposed within each domain, and these will evolve into benchmarks established by governments at the forefront of creating and implementing food policies for good health. A rating process is proposed to assess a government's level of policy implementation towards good practice. The Food-EPI will be pre-tested and piloted in countries of varying size and income levels. The benchmarking of government policy implementation has the potential to catalyse greater action to reduce obesity and NCDs.