Hindsight judgement on ambiguous episodes of suspected infection in critically ill children: poor consensus amongst experts?

Few episodes of suspected infection observed in paediatric intensive care are classifiable without ambiguity by a priori defined criteria. Most require additional expert judgement. Recently, we observed a high variability in antibiotic prescription rates, not explained by the patients' clinical data or underlying diseases. We hypothesised that the disagreement of experts in adjudication of episodes of suspected infection could be one of the potential causes for this variability. During a 5-month period, we included all patients of a 19-bed multidisciplinary, tertiary, neonatal and paediatric intensive care unit, in whom infection was clinically suspected and antibiotics were prescribed ( n=183). Three experts (two senior ICU physicians and a specialist in infectious diseases) were provided with all patient data, laboratory and microbiological findings. All experts classified episodes according to a priori defined criteria into: proven sepsis, probable sepsis (negative cultures), localised infection and no infection. Episodes of proven viral infection and incomplete data sets were excluded. Of the remaining 167 episodes, 48 were classifiable by a priori criteria ( n=28 proven sepsis, n= 20 no infection). The three experts only achieved limited agreement beyond chance in the remaining 119 episodes (kappa = 0.32, and kappa = 0.19 amongst the ICU physicians). The kappa is a measure of the degree of agreement beyond what would be expected by chance alone, with 0 indicating the chance result and 1 indicating perfect agreement. CONCLUSION: agreement of specialists in hindsight adjudication of episodes of suspected infection is of questionable reliability.

Prognostic effect of epithelial cell adhesion molecule overexpression in untreated node-negative breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Epithelial cell adhesion molecule (Ep-CAM) recently received increased attention not only as a prognostic factor in breast cancer but also as a potential target for immunotherapy. We examined Ep-CAM expression in 402 consecutive node-negative breast cancer patients with long-term follow-up not treated in the adjuvant setting. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Ep-CAM expression was evaluated by immunostaining. Its prognostic effect was estimated relative to overexpression/amplification of HER-2, histologic grade, tumor size, age, and hormone receptor expression. RESULTS: Ep-CAM status was positive in 106 (26.4%) patients. In multivariate analysis, Ep-CAM status was associated with disease-free survival independent of age, pT stage, histologic grade, estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), as well as HER2 status (P = 0.028; hazard ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.44). Recently, so-called triple-negative (HER-2, ER, and PR) breast cancer has received increased attention. We noticed a similar association of Ep-CAM with disease-free survival in the triple-negative group as for the entire cohort. CONCLUSION: In this study of untreated breast cancer patients, Ep-CAM overexpression was associated with poor survival in the entire cohort and in the subgroup of triple-negative breast cancer. This suggests that Ep-CAM may be a well-suited target for specific therapies particularly in HER-2-, ER-, and PR-negative tumors.

Poor, Hungry and Stupid: Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper argues that low levels of nutrition impaired cognitive development in industrializing England, and that welfare transfers mitigated the adverse effects of high food prices. Age heaping is used as an indicator of numeracy, as derived from census data. For the cohorts from 1780-1850, we analyse the effect of high grain prices during the Napoleonic Wars. We show that numeracy declined markedly for those born during the war years, especially when wheat was dear. Crucially, where the Old Poor Law provided for generous relief payments, the adverse impact of high prices for foodstuffs was mitigated. Finally, we show some tentative evidence that Englishmen born in areas with low income support selected into occupations with lower cognitive requirements.

Health indicators associated with poor sleep quality among university students

Objective To associate the sleep quality of Brazilian undergraduate students with health indicators. Method A cross-sectional study was developed with a random sample of 662 undergraduate students from Fortaleza, Brazil. The demographic data, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and health data indicators (smoking, alcoholism, sedentary lifestyle, nutritional condition and serum cholesterol) were collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Blood was collected at a clinical laboratory. In order to estimate the size of the associations, a Poisson Regression was used. Results For students who are daily smokers, the occurrence of poor sleep was higher than in non-smokers (p<0.001). Prevalence rate values were nevertheless close to 1. Conclusion The likelihood of poor sleep is almost the same in smokers and in alcoholics.


To Look Beyond Vasospasm in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Haemorrhage.

Delayed cerebral vasospasm has classically been considered the most important and treatable cause of mortality and morbidity in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). Secondary ischemia (or delayed ischemic neurological deficit, DIND) has been shown to be the leading determinant of poor clinical outcome in patients with aSAH surviving the early phase and cerebral vasospasm has been attributed to being primarily responsible. Recently, various clinical trials aimed at treating vasospasm have produced disappointing results. DIND seems to have a multifactorial etiology and vasospasm may simply represent one contributing factor and not the major determinant. Increasing evidence shows that a series of early secondary cerebral insults may occur following aneurysm rupture (the so-called early brain injury). This further aggravates the initial insult and actually determines the functional outcome. A better understanding of these mechanisms and their prevention in the very early phase is needed to improve the prognosis. The aim of this review is to summarize the existing literature on this topic and so to illustrate how the presence of cerebral vasospasm may not necessarily be a prerequisite for DIND development. The various factors determining DIND that worsen functional outcome and prognosis are then discussed.

Speech prognosis and need of pharyngeal flap for non syndromic vs syndromic Pierre Robin Sequence

BACKGROUND: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate speech outcome and need of a pharyngeal flap in children born with nonsyndromic Pierre Robin Sequence (nsPRS) vs syndromic Pierre Robin Sequence (sPRS). METHODS: Pierre Robin Sequence was diagnosed when the triad microretrognathia, glossoptosis, and cleft palate were present. Children were classified at birth in 3 categories depending on respiratory and feeding problems. The Borel-Maisonny classification was used to score the velopharyngeal insufficiency. RESULTS: The study was based on 38 children followed from 1985 to 2006. For the 25 nsPRS, 9 (36%) pharyngeal flaps were performed with improvements of the phonatory score in the 3 categories. For the 13 sPRS, 3 (23%) pharyngeal flaps were performed with an improvement of the phonatory scores in the 3 children. There was no statistical difference between the nsPRS and sPRS groups (P = .3) even if we compared the children in the 3 categories (P = .2). CONCLUSIONS: Children born with nsPRS did not have a better prognosis of speech outcome than children born with sPRS. Respiratory and feeding problems at birth did not seem to be correlated with speech outcome. This is important when informing parents on the prognosis of long-term therapy

The effects of poor financial information systems on the long term sustainability of local public services. Empirical evidence from the Catalan Municipalities

In this paper we describe the existence of financial illusion in public accountingand we comment on its effects for the future sustainability of local publicservices. We relate these features to the lack of incentives amongst publicmanagers for improving the financial reporting and thus management of publicassets. Financial illusion pays off for politicians and managers since it allowsfor larger public expenditure increases and managerial slack, these beingarguments in their utility functions. This preference is strengthen by the shorttime perspective of politically appointed public managers. Both factors runagainst public accountability. This hypothesis is tested for Spain by using anunique sample. We take data from around forty Catalan local authorities withpopulation above 20,000 for the financial years 1993-98. We build this databasis from the Catalan Auditing Office Reports in a way that it can be linkedto some other local social and economic variables in order to test ourassumptions. The results confirm that there is a statistical relationship between the financialillusion index (FI as constructed in the paper) and higher current expenditure.This reflects on important overruns and increases of the delay in payingsuppliers, as well as on a higher difficulties to face capital finance. Mechanismsfor FI creation have to do among other factors, with delays in paying suppliers(and thereafter higher future financial costs per unit of service), no adequateprovision for bad debts and lack of appropriate capital funding either forreposition or for new equipments. For this, it is crucial to monitor the way inwhich capital transfers are accounted in local public sheet balances. As a result,for most of the Municipalities we analyse, the funds for guaranteeing continuityand sustainability of public services provision are today at risk.Given managerial incentives at present in public institutions, we conclude thatpublic regulation recently enforced for assuring better information systems inlocal public management may not be enough to change the current state of affairs.

Continuous electroencephalography in the medical intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors and the prognostic value of electrographic seizures (ESZs) and periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in medical intensive care unit (MICU) patients without a primary acute neurologic condition. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: MICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 201 consecutive patients admitted to the MICU between July 2004 and January 2007 without known acute neurologic injury and who underwent continuous electroencephalography monitoring (cEEG) for investigation of possible seizures or changes in mental status. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Median time from intensive care unit (ICU) admission to cEEG was 1 day (interquartile range 1-4). The majority of patients (60%) had sepsis as the primary admission diagnosis and 48% were comatose at the time of cEEG. Ten percent (n = 21) of patients had ESZs, 17% (n = 34) had PEDs, 5% (n = 10) had both, and 22% (n = 45) had either ESZs or PEDs. Seizures during cEEG were purely electrographic (no detectable clinical correlate) in the majority (67%) of patients. Patients with sepsis had a higher rate of ESZs or PEDs than those without sepsis (32% vs. 9%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, sepsis at ICU admission was the only significant predictor of ESZs or PEDs (odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9-12.7, p = 0.002). After controlling for age, coma, and organ dysfunction, the presence of ESZs or PEDs was associated with death or severe disability at hospital discharge (89% with ESZs or PEDs, vs. 39% if not; odds ratio 19.1, 95% confidence interval 6.3-74.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study of MICU patients monitored with cEEG, ESZs and PEDs were frequent, predominantly in patients with sepsis. Seizures were mainly nonconvulsive. Both seizures and periodic discharges were associated with poor outcome. Prospective studies are warranted to determine more precisely the frequency and clinical impact of nonconvulsive seizures and periodic discharges, particularly in septic patients.

Aortobronchial and aortoesophageal fistulae as risk factors in surgery of descending thoracic aortic aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE: Assess outcome of patients with descending thoracic aortic aneurysms complicated by aortobronchial and aortoesophageal fistulae in comparison to patients undergoing repair of aortic aneurysms without fistulae. METHODS: In a consecutive series of 145 patients (age 60 +/- 12 years) with repair of descending thoracic and thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms, 11 patients (8%; age 63 +/- 9; NS) primarily presented for hematemesis and/or hemoptysis. In 8/11 patients (73%) an aortobronchial fistula was identified, and 3/11 patients (27%) suffered from an aortoesophageal fistula. Five of 11 patients (45%) had undergone previous aortic surgery in the same region. RESULTS: Extent of aortic segments (range 1-8) replaced was 3.1 +/- 1.4 for all versus 2.6 +/- 0.9 for fistulae (NS). Aortic cross clamp time was 38 +/- 22 min for all versus 45 +/- 15 min for fistulae (NS). Mortality at 30 days was 18/145 (12%) for all versus 16/134 (12%) without fistulae versus 2/11 (18%) with fistulae (NS). Paraparesis and or paraplegia was observed in 11/145 (8%) for all versus 10/134 (7%) without fistulae versus 1/11 (9%) for cases with fistulae (NS). Nine additional patients died after hospital discharge, seven without fistulae and two with fistulae (days 80, and 120) bringing the 1-year mortality up to 23/134 (17%) without fistulae versus 4/11 (36%) with fistulae (NS). Further analysis shows that the 1-year mortality accounts for 1/8 patients (13%) with aorto-bronchial fistulae versus to 3/3 patients (100%) with aorto-esophageal fistulae (esophageal versus bronchial fistula: P = 0.018; esophageal versus no fistula: P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Outcome of patients suffering from descending thoracic aortic aneurysms complicated by aorto-bronchial fistulae can be similar to that without fistulae, whereas for cases complicated by aorto-esophageal fistulae the prognosis seems to remain poor even after successful hospital discharge.

Training in flexible intensive insulin therapy improves quality of life, decreases the risk of hypoglycaemia and ameliorates poor metabolic control in patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIM: Intensified insulin therapy has evolved to be the standard treatment of type 1 diabetes. However, it has been reported to increase significantly the risk of hypoglycaemia. We studied the effect of structured group teaching courses in flexible insulin therapy (FIT) on psychological and metabolic parameters in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We prospectively followed 45 type 1 diabetic patients of our outpatient clinic participating in 5 consecutive FIT teaching courses at the University Hospital of Basel. These courses consist of 7 weekly ambulatory evening group sessions. Patients were studied before and 1, 6, and 18 months after the course. Main outcome measures were glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), severe hypoglycaemic events, quality of life (DQoL), diabetes self-control (IPC-9) and diabetes knowledge (DWT). RESULTS: Quality of life, self-control and diabetes knowledge improved after the FIT courses (all p<0.001). The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic events decreased ten-fold from 0.33 episodes/6 months at baseline to 0.03 episodes/6 months after 18 months (p<0.05). Baseline HbA1c was 7.2+/-1.1% and decreased in the subgroup with HbA1c > or = 8% from 8.4% to 7.8% (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In an unselected, but relatively well-controlled population of type 1 diabetes, a structured, but not very time consuming FIT teaching programme in the outpatient setting improves psychological well-being and metabolic parameters.

The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions witha Bayesian estimator which allows us to use information in an efficient andflexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a commonlevel of per-capita income found, e.g., by Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,is due to a 'fixed effect bias' that their cross-sectional analysisintroduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of differentconvergence rates to different steady states for each cross sectional unit.When this diversity is allowed, we find that convergence of each unit to(its own) steady state income level is much faster than previously estimatedbut that cross sectional differences persist: inequalities will only bereduced by a small amount by the passage of time. The cross countrydistribution of the steady state is largely explained by the cross countrydistribution of initial conditions.

Poor, hungry and ignorant: Numeracy and the impact of high food prices in industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper uses the ability to recall one s age correctly as an indicator of numeracy.We show that low levels of nutrition impaired numeracy in industrializing England, 1780-1850.Numeracy declined markedly among those born during the war years, especially where wheatwas dear. England s nascent welfare state mitigated the negative effect of high food prices oncognitive skills. Nutrition during early development mattered for labor market outcomes:individuals born in periods or countries with high age heaping were more likely to sort intooccupations with limited intellectual requirements.

Do interregional transfers improve the economic performance of poor regions? The case of Spain

The 17 regional governments of Spain receive grants from both thecentral government and the European Union. The grants are generallyredistributive and are intended to stimulate economic activity inthe poorer regions. We evaluate the effectiveness of the grants bycomparing the economic performance of the regions before and afterthe implementation of the grant programs using a differences--in--differences approach. We find that these policies have not beeneffective at stimulating private investment or improving the overalleconomies of the poorer regions.

Achievement of at least very good partial response is a simple and robust prognostic factor in patients with multiple myeloma treated with high-dose therapy: long-term analysis of the IFM 99-02 and 99-04 Trials.

PURPOSE: The prognostic impact of complete response (CR) achievement in multiple myeloma (MM) has been shown mostly in the context of autologous stem-cell transplantation. Other levels of response have been defined because, even with high-dose therapy, CR is a relatively rare event. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prognostic impact of very good partial response (VGPR) in patients treated with high-dose therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients were included in the Intergroupe Francophone du Myelome 99-02 and 99-04 trials and treated with vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (VAD) induction therapy followed by double autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Best post-ASCT response assessment was available for 802 patients. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 67 months, median event-free survival (EFS) and 5-year EFS were 42 months and 34%, respectively, for 405 patients who achieved at least VGPR after ASCT versus 32 months and 26% in 288 patients who achieved only partial remission (P = .005). Five-year overall survival (OS) was significantly superior in patients achieving at least VGPR (74% v 61% P = .0017). In multivariate analysis, achievement of less than VGPR was an independent factor predicting shorter EFS and OS. Response to VAD had no impact on EFS and OS. The impact of VGPR achievement on EFS and OS was significant in patients with International Staging System stages 2 to 3 and for patients with poor-risk cytogenetics t(4;14) or del(17p). CONCLUSION: In the context of ASCT, achievement of at least VGPR is a simple prognostic factor that has importance in intermediate and high-risk MM and can be informative in more patients than CR.