A Complexity Based Model for Quantifying Forensic Evidential Probabilities

An operational complexity model (OCM) is proposed to enable the complexity of both the cognitive and the computational components of a process to be determined. From the complexity of formation of a set of traces via a specified route a measure of the probability of that route can be determined. By determining the complexities of alternative routes leading to the formation of the same set of traces, the odds ratio indicating the relative plausibility of the alternative routes can be found. An illustrative application to a BitTorrent piracy case is presented, and the results obtained suggest that the OCM is capable of providing a realistic estimate of the odds ratio for two competing hypotheses. It is also demonstrated that the OCM can be straightforwardly refined to encompass a variety of circumstances.

Taylor principle and inflation stability in emerging market countriesw

The goal of this paper is to evaluate the validity of the Taylor principle for inflation control in 12 developing countries that use inflation targeting regimes: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. The test is based on a state-space model to determine when each country has followed the principle; then a threshold unit root test is used to verify if the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target depends on compliance with the Taylor principle. The results show that such compliance leads to the stationarity of the deviation of the expected inflation from its target in all cases. Furthermore, in most cases, non-compliance with the Taylor principle leads to nonstationary deviation of the expected inflation.

Mercado secundário de títulos públicos: microestrutura, liquidez e spread de compra e venda para o mercado de LTNs no Brasil

Este trabalho está dividido em dois ensaios. O primeiro ensaio examina aspectos da liquidez do mercado secundário de títulos públicos no Brasil no período 2003 a 2006 e os determinantes do spread de compra e venda no mercado secundário de LTN - Letra do Tesouro Nacional no período 2005 a 2006. Os spreads foram calculados com base em dados diários de alta freqüência, para períodos de 30 minutos e de um dia. Em linhas gerais, a liquidez é um determinante importante no cálculo do spread. Especificamente os spreads diminuem quando os volumes ofertados aumentam. No caso dos prazos de vencimento, os spreads aumentam quando os prazos se ampliam. LTNs com prazos de vencimentos até 30 dias apresentaram spreads de 1 centavo de reais (1.89 bp) enquanto que LTNs com prazos acima de dois anos apresentaram spreads médios em torno de 54 centavos de reais (3.84 bp) para intervalos de 30 minutos e 81 centavos de reais (5.72 bp) para intervalos de um dia. Os testes econométricos foram realizados com base em um modelo apresentado por Chakravarty e Sarkar (1999) e aplicado ao mercado americano de bonds no período de 1995 e 1997. Os testes foram feitos utilizando-se a técnica do Método dos Momentos Generalizados (GMM). Os resultados confirmam o spread de compra e venda como medida importante no acompanhamento da liquidez. O segundo ensaio compara aspectos da liquidez e da microestrutura do mercado de títulos públicos em alguns paises como Brasil, Chile, México, Coréia, Singapura, Polônia e Estados Unidos. A análise utiliza algumas dimensões da microestrutura como a liquidez do mercado secundário (spread de compra e venda, giro do estoque de títulos e vencimentos mais negociados), os custos de eficiência, a estrutura e transparência do mercado primário e secundário e, por último, a segurança do mercado. O objetivo é comparar as características e o funcionamento dos mercados secundários desses paises e, confrontar com a realidade do mercado brasileiro face ao desenvolvimento da microestrutura. Apesar da falta de alongamento dos prazos dos títulos públicos, o mercado secundário no Brasil apresenta aspectos da microestrutura semelhantes aos paises em consideração o que sugere a existência de outros fatores fora a microestrutura que limitam o aumento dos prazos. Os resultados do primeiro ensaio ajudam nas comparações dos demais paises. Como resultado, encontramos que embora a liquidez do mercado secundário de títulos públicos no Brasil concentra-se em papéis de prazo menor, este fato provavelmente não se deve a questões de microestrutura do mercado.

Zeta potential and doping in polyaniline dispersions

Polyaniline (PAni) has been classified as an intractable polymer, particularly in its conducting form, the emeraldine salt (ES). Therefore one can consider the mixture of water and PAni as a suspension. The conducting form of PAni can be obtained by a doping process known as acid doping, in which a strong acid turns PAni from its insulating form, the emeraldine base (EB), into the conducting form, the emeraldine salt. With the objective of establishing a correlation between the doping level and the zeta potential of polyaniline dispersions, polyaniline + HCl aqueous suspensions were prepared. Positive zeta potential values for the various suspensions of PAni showed that it acquired positive charges after the doping process. It was also observed an increase in zeta potential values as HCl concentration increased, which could be correlated to UV-visible spectra of PAni suspensions.

Natural Conditions and Environmental Impacts in a Coastal Hydrographic Basin in the Brazilian Amazon

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Investigando a legitimidade: Estudo de atitudes de público em relação aos papéis do Estado e do mercado

Using data collected in nine countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Czech Republic, Poland, Russian Federation, Finland, Germany and the USA - through the World Values Survey, the article analyses the validity of four variables with a supposed potential to evaluate the legitimacy level of the private sector vis-à-vis the public sector. This analysis in undertaken in the context of the discussions on the future of market reforms that were implemented in several countries in the past 20 years. The investigation adopted a two level strategy: first, the aggregated frequencies for the nine countries were analyzed, followed by a bivariate analysis aimed at verifying the internal consistency of the variables. The article concludes that the four variables under consideration do not compose a valid dimension capable of assessing the legitimacy of the public sector versus the private sector.

Política fiscal e reestruturação da dívida pública no Brasil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A dinâmica territorial das agroindústrias artesanais de Francisco Beltrão/PR

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Esforço de modernidade do mercado de capitais no Brasil: o novo mercado

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Lucile Kathryn Delano Papers - Accession 509

The Lucile Kathryn Delano Papers consist of correspondence relating to Dr. Delano, Hallet Abend, and Virgilia Peterson (Princess Sapieha of Poland), an account of her trips to Europe and Mexico City, honors and awards she received, a dissertation presented to the Board of Graduate Studies at Washington University, notes on projected research on William Cullen Bryant, manuscripts, newspaper clippings, and family photographs.

A search for anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra high energy cosmic rays recorded at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Observations of cosmic rays arrival directions made with the Pierre Auger Observatory have previously provided evidence of anisotropy at the 99% CL using the correlation of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) with objects drawn from the Veron-Cetty Veron catalog. In this paper we report on the use of three catalog independent methods to search for anisotropy. The 2pt-L, 2pt+ and 3pt methods, each giving a different measure of self-clustering in arrival directions, were tested on mock cosmic ray data sets to study the impacts of sample size and magnetic smearing on their results, accounting for both angular and energy resolutions. If the sources of UHECRs follow the same large scale structure as ordinary galaxies in the local Universe and if UHECRs are deflected no more than a few degrees, a study of mock maps suggests that these three method can efficiently respond to the resulting anisotropy with a P-value = 1.0% or smaller with data sets as few as 100 events. using data taken from January 1, 2004 to July 31, 2010 we examined the 20, 30, ... , 110 highest energy events with a corresponding minimum energy threshold of about 49.3 EeV. The minimum P-values found were 13.5% using the 2pt-L method, 1.0% using the 2pt+ method and 1.1% using the 3pt method for the highest 100 energy events. In view of the multiple (correlated) scans performed on the data set, these catalog-independent methods do not yield strong evidence of anisotropy in the highest energy cosmic rays.

DETECTION OF GENETIC CHARACTERIZATION OF PORCINE CIRCOVIRUS 2 (PCV2) IN BRAZILIAN WILDLIFE BOARS

A semi-intensive wildlife boars farm presented a clinical history of high mortality in 70 - 90 days-old pigs (> 50 %). Two 90 days-old animals with weight loss and wasting were necropsied and the samples tested for PCV2 by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The genetic material of PCV2 was sequenced and classified into the PCV2a genotype together with PCV2 sequences obtained from samples of Poland, Brazil, Slovenia and Greece wild boars.

Description of atmospheric conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)

Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Artificial and natural radioactivity in edible mushrooms from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Environmental biomonitoring has demonstrated that organisms such as crustaceans, fish and mushrooms are useful to evaluate and monitor both ecosystem contamination and quality. Particularly, some mushroom species have a high capacity to retain radionuclides and some toxic elements from the soil and the air. The potential of mushrooms to accumulate radionuclides in their fruit-bodies has been well documented. However, there are no studies that determine natural and artificial radionuclide composition in edible mushrooms, in Brazil. Artificial (Cs-137) and natural radioactivity (K-40. Ra-226. Ra-228) were determined in 17 mushroom samples from 3 commercialized edible mushroom species. The edible mushrooms collected were Agaricus sp., Pleurotus sp. and Lentinula sp. species. The activity measurements were carried out by gamma spectrometry. The levels of Cs-137 varied from 1.45 +/- 0.04 to 10.6 +/- 0.3 Bq kg(-1), K-40 levels varied from 461 +/- 2 to 1535 +/- 10 Bq kg(-1), Ra-226 levels varied from 14 +/- 3 to 66 +/- 12 Bq kg(-1) and Ra-228 levels varied from 6.2 +/- 0.2 to 54.2 +/- 1.7 Bq kg(-1). Cs-137 levels in Brazilian mushrooms are in accordance with the radioactive fallout in the Southern Hemisphere. The artificial and natural activities determined in this study were found to be below the maximum permissible levels as established by national legislation. Thus, these mushroom species can be normally consumed by the population without any apparent risks to human health.

The rapid atmospheric monitoring system of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a facility built to detect air showers produced by cosmic rays above 10(17) eV. During clear nights with a low illuminated moon fraction, the UV fluorescence light produced by air showers is recorded by optical telescopes at the Observatory. To correct the observations for variations in atmospheric conditions, atmospheric monitoring is performed at regular intervals ranging from several minutes (for cloud identification) to several hours (for aerosol conditions) to several days (for vertical profiles of temperature, pressure, and humidity). In 2009, the monitoring program was upgraded to allow for additional targeted measurements of atmospheric conditions shortly after the detection of air showers of special interest, e. g., showers produced by very high-energy cosmic rays or showers with atypical longitudinal profiles. The former events are of particular importance for the determination of the energy scale of the Observatory, and the latter are characteristic of unusual air shower physics or exotic primary particle types. The purpose of targeted (or "rapid") monitoring is to improve the resolution of the atmospheric measurements for such events. In this paper, we report on the implementation of the rapid monitoring program and its current status. The rapid monitoring data have been analyzed and applied to the reconstruction of air showers of high interest, and indicate that the air fluorescence measurements affected by clouds and aerosols are effectively corrected using measurements from the regular atmospheric monitoring program. We find that the rapid monitoring program has potential for supporting dedicated physics analyses beyond the standard event reconstruction.