989 resultados para Pattern oriented modelling


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Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere.

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The infinite slope method is widely used as the geotechnical component of geomorphic and landscape evolution models. Its assumption that shallow landslides are infinitely long (in a downslope direction) is usually considered valid for natural landslides on the basis that they are generally long relative to their depth. However, this is rarely justified, because the critical length/depth (L/H) ratio below which edge effects become important is unknown. We establish this critical L/H ratio by benchmarking infinite slope stability predictions against finite element predictions for a set of synthetic two-dimensional slopes, assuming that the difference between the predictions is due to error in the infinite slope method. We test the infinite slope method for six different L/H ratios to find the critical ratio at which its predictions fall within 5% of those from the finite element method. We repeat these tests for 5000 synthetic slopes with a range of failure plane depths, pore water pressures, friction angles, soil cohesions, soil unit weights and slope angles characteristic of natural slopes. We find that: (1) infinite slope stability predictions are consistently too conservative for small L/H ratios; (2) the predictions always converge to within 5% of the finite element benchmarks by a L/H ratio of 25 (i.e. the infinite slope assumption is reasonable for landslides 25 times longer than they are deep); but (3) they can converge at much lower ratios depending on slope properties, particularly for low cohesion soils. The implication for catchment scale stability models is that the infinite length assumption is reasonable if their grid resolution is coarse (e.g. >25?m). However, it may also be valid even at much finer grid resolutions (e.g. 1?m), because spatial organization in the predicted pore water pressure field reduces the probability of short landslides and minimizes the risk that predicted landslides will have L/H ratios less than 25. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In a biophysical approach to the study of swimming performance (blending biomechanics and bioenergetics), inter-limb coordination is typically considered and analysed to improve propulsion and propelling efficiency. In this approach, 'opposition' or 'continuous' patterns of inter-limb coordination, where continuity between propulsive actions occurs, are promoted in the acquisition of expertise. Indeed a 'continuous' pattern theoretically minimizes intra-cyclic speed variations of the centre of mass. Consequently, it may also minimize the energy cost of locomotion. However, in skilled swimming performance there is a need to strike a delicate balance between inter-limb coordination pattern stability and variability, suggesting the absence of an 'ideal' pattern of coordination toward which all swimmers must converge or seek to imitate. Instead, an ecological dynamics framework advocates that there is an intertwined relationship between the specific intentions, perceptions and actions of individual swimmers, which constrains this relationship between coordination pattern stability and variability. This perspective explains how behaviours emerge from a set of interacting constraints, which each swimmer has to satisfy in order to achieve specific task performance goals and produce particular task outcomes. This overview updates understanding on inter-limb coordination in swimming to analyse the relationship between coordination variability and stability in relation to interacting constraints (related to task, environment and organism) that swimmers may encounter during training and performance.

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Motive-Oriented Therapeutic Relationship (MOTR, also called Complementary Therapeutic Relationship) has already shown itself to be related to therapeutic outcome in several studies. The present study aims to test MOTR in a 4-session Brief Psychodynamic Intervention for patients presenting with major depressive disorder (MDD) and comorbid personality disorder (PD). In total, N = 20 patients were selected; n = 10 had MDD, n = 10 had MDD with comorbid PD. The first therapy session was videotaped and analyzed by means of Plan Analysis and the MOTR scale. Results suggest a differential effect on outcome: only the nonverbal component of MOTR is related to symptomatic change in patients presenting with MDD and comorbid PD; no such effect was found for patients with MDD alone. These results are discussed in line with the generalization and refinement of the conclusions of previous findings on the MOTR. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 67:1-11, 2011.

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The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.

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Introduction: Population ageing is a worldwide phenomenon that forces us to make radical changes on multiple levels of society. So far, studies have concluded that the health, both physical and mental, of prisoners in general and older prisoners in particular is worse than that of the general population. Prisoners are reported to age faster as compared to adults in the community. However, to date, very little is known about the actual healthcare conditions of older prisoners and almost no substantial knowledge is available concerning their patterns of healthcare use. Method: A quantitative study was conducted in four prisons for male prisoners in Switzerland, including two open and two closed prisons situated in different cantons. In this study, medical records of older prisoners (50+) were obtained from the respective authority upon consent and total anonymity was ensured. Data gathered from all available medical records included basic demographic information, education and prison sentencing. Healthcare data obtained were extensive in nature encompassing data related to illness types, number of visits to different health care providers and hospitals. The corresponding reasons for visits and outcomes of these visits were extracted. All data are analysed using statistical software SPSS 20.0. Results: Data were extracted for a total of 50 older prisoners living in Switzerland. The chosen prisons are located in German-speaking cantons. Preliminary results show that the age average was 56 years. For more than half, this was their first imprisonment. Nevertheless, a third of them were sentenced to measures (Art. 64 Swiss Criminal Code) which means that the length of the detention is indefinite and while release is possible it is in most cases not very likely. This entails that these prisoners will grow old in prison and some will even spend their remaining years there. Concerning their health, a third of the sample reported respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses and half reported suffering from some form of musculoskeletal related pain. Older prisoners were prescribed on average only 3.5 medications, which is significantly fewer than the number of medication prescribed to younger prisoners, whose data were also sampled. Conclusion: Access to healthcare is a right given to all prisoners through the principle of equivalence which is generally exercised in Switzerland. Prisoners growing old in prison will represent a challenge for prison health care services.

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AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

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The project presented, iCognos, consists of a flexible platform to assist end-users in performing a series of mental tasks with a sensitized mobile telerobotic platform aimed at mitigating the problems associated to cognitive disorders with an ecological cognition approach.

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Objective To analyze the practices of primary care focused on the harmful consumption of drugs. Method This is a qualitative study, developed with a dialectical-critical approach. Data collection was carried out through semi-structured interviews with 10 employees of a basic health unit (UBS). Results The demands are not accepted, and if they go beyond the barriers shaped by the historical absence of health care practices for drug users and moralistic and preconceived ideologies, they are not reinterpreted as health needs; practices that meet these demands and go beyond the barriers are poor; the functionalist approach, which explains drug use as a disease and considers drug users as deviants, supports the few existing practices. Conclusion primary health care is mistakenly focused on addiction; it lacks structural elements of the production process in health and internal dynamics of the working processes that would foster the development of collective practices.

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OBJECTIVE: The effect of minor orthopaedic day surgery (MiODS) on patient's mood. METHODS: A prospective population-based cohort study of 148 consecutive patients with age above 18 and less than 65, an American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) score of 1, and the requirement of general anaesthesia (GA) were included. The Medical Outcomes Study - Short Form 36 (SF-36), Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) were used pre- and post-operatively. RESULTS: The mean physical component score of SF-36 before surgery was 45.3 (SD=+/-10.1) and 8 weeks following surgery was 44.9 (SD=+/-11.04) [n=148, p=0.51, 95% CI=(-1.03 to 1.52)]. For the measurement of the changes in mood using BDI, BAI and SF-36, latent construct modelling was employed to increase validity. The covariance between mood pre- and post-operatively (cov=69.44) corresponded to a correlation coefficient, r=0.88 indicating that patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before surgery continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery. When the latent mood constructs were permitted to have different means the model fitted well with chi(2) (df=1)=0.86 for which p=0.77, thus the null hypothesis that MiODS has no effect on patient mood was rejected. CONCLUSIONS: MiODS affects patient mood which deteriorates at 8 weeks post-operatively regardless of the pre-operative patient mood state. More importantly patients suffering a greater number of mood symptoms before MiODS continue to have a greater number of symptoms following surgery.

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BACKGROUND: Genes involved in arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) symbiosis have been identified primarily by mutant screens, followed by identification of the mutated genes (forward genetics). In addition, a number of AM-related genes has been identified by their AM-related expression patterns, and their function has subsequently been elucidated by knock-down or knock-out approaches (reverse genetics). However, genes that are members of functionally redundant gene families, or genes that have a vital function and therefore result in lethal mutant phenotypes, are difficult to identify. If such genes are constitutively expressed and therefore escape differential expression analyses, they remain elusive. The goal of this study was to systematically search for AM-related genes with a bioinformatics strategy that is insensitive to these problems. The central element of our approach is based on the fact that many AM-related genes are conserved only among AM-competent species. RESULTS: Our approach involves genome-wide comparisons at the proteome level of AM-competent host species with non-mycorrhizal species. Using a clustering method we first established orthologous/paralogous relationships and subsequently identified protein clusters that contain members only of the AM-competent species. Proteins of these clusters were then analyzed in an extended set of 16 plant species and ranked based on their relatedness among AM-competent monocot and dicot species, relative to non-mycorrhizal species. In addition, we combined the information on the protein-coding sequence with gene expression data and with promoter analysis. As a result we present a list of yet uncharacterized proteins that show a strongly AM-related pattern of sequence conservation, indicating that the respective genes may have been under selection for a function in AM. Among the top candidates are three genes that encode a small family of similar receptor-like kinases that are related to the S-locus receptor kinases involved in sporophytic self-incompatibility. CONCLUSIONS: We present a new systematic strategy of gene discovery based on conservation of the protein-coding sequence that complements classical forward and reverse genetics. This strategy can be applied to diverse other biological phenomena if species with established genome sequences fall into distinguished groups that differ in a defined functional trait of interest.