The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

The Greying Church: The Impact of Life Expectancy on Religiosity

Many churches are concerned about older and dwindling congregations. We develop a theoretical framework to explain not only the downward trend in church attendance, but also the increase in the proportion of older people in the congregations. Religiosity depends positively on the expected social and spiritual benefits attached to religious adherence, as well as the probability of entering heaven in the afterlife. While otherworldly compensation in terms of salvation and spiritual benefits motivates religiosity, the costs of formal religion in terms of time allocated to communal activities and foregone income work in the opposite direction. We show that higher life expectancy discounts expected benefits in the afterlife and is hence likely to lead to postponement of religiosity. For this reason, religious organizations should be prepared to attract older members to their congregations, while emphasizing contemporaneous religious benefits to increase overall church attendance.

The Economic Effects of Micronutrient Deficiency: Evidence from Salt Iodization in the United States

Iodine deficiency is the leading cause of preventable mental retardation in the world today. Iodine deficiency was common in the developed world until the introduction of iodized salt in the 1920’s. The incidence of iodine deficiency is connected to low iodine levels in the soil and water. We examine the impact of salt iodization in the US by taking advantage of this natural geographic variation. Areas with high pre-treatment levels of iodine deficiency provide a treatment group which we can compare to a control group of low iodine deficiency areas. In the US, salt was iodized over a very short period of time around 1924. We use previously unused data collected during WWI and WWII to compare outcomes of cohorts born before and after iodization, in localities that were naturally poor and rich in iodine. We find evidence of the beneficial effects of iodization on the cognitive abilities of the cohorts exposed to it.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Stability of Growth Models with Generalised Lag Structures

This paper considers the lag structures of dynamic models in economics, arguing that the standard approach is too simple to capture the complexity of actual lag structures arising, for example, from production and investment decisions. It is argued that recent (1990s) developments in the the theory of functional differential equations provide a means to analyse models with generalised lag structures. The stability and asymptotic stability of two growth models with generalised lag structures are analysed. The paper concludes with some speculative discussion of time-varying parameters.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Sorting out measures and definitions of screening participation to improve comparability: The example of colorectal cancer.

Participation is a key indicator of the potential effectiveness of any population-based intervention. Defining, measuring and reporting participation in cancer screening programmes has become more heterogeneous as the number and diversity of interventions have increased, and the purposes of this benchmarking parameter have broadened. This study, centred on colorectal cancer, addresses current issues that affect the increasingly complex task of comparing screening participation across settings. Reports from programmes with a defined target population and active invitation scheme, published between 2005 and 2012, were reviewed. Differences in defining and measuring participation were identified and quantified, and participation indicators were grouped by aims of measure and temporal dimensions. We found that consistent terminology, clear and complete reporting of participation definition and systematic documentation of coverage by invitation were lacking. Further, adherence to definitions proposed in the 2010 European Guidelines for Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Screening was suboptimal. Ineligible individuals represented 1% to 15% of invitations, and variable criteria for ineligibility yielded differences in participation estimates that could obscure the interpretation of colorectal cancer screening participation internationally. Excluding ineligible individuals from the reference population enhances comparability of participation measures. Standardised measures of cumulative participation to compare screening protocols with different intervals and inclusion of time since invitation in definitions are urgently needed to improve international comparability of colorectal cancer screening participation. Recommendations to improve comparability of participation indicators in cancer screening interventions are made.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adalimumab in acute sciatica reduces the long-term need for surgery: a 3-year follow-up of a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Two subcutaneous injections of adalimumab in severe acute sciatica significantly reduced the number of back operations in a short-term randomised controlled clinical trial. OBJECTIVE: To determine in a 3-year follow-up study whether the short-term benefit of adalimumab in sciatica is sustained over a longer period of time. METHODS: The primary outcome of this analysis was incident discectomy. Three years after randomisation, information on surgery could be retrieved in 56/61 patients (92%).A multivariate Cox proportional hazard models, adjusted for potential confounders, was used to determine factors predisposing to surgery. RESULTS: Twenty-three (41%) patients had back surgery within 3 years, 8/29 (28%) in the adalimumab group and 15/27 (56%) in the placebo group, p=0.04. Adalimumab injections reduced the need for back surgery by 61% (HR)=0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.92). In a multivariate model, treatment with a tumour necrosis factor-α antagonist remained the strongest protective factor (HR=0.17, p=0.002). Other significant predictors of surgery were a good correlation between symptoms and MRI findings (HR=11.6, p=0.04), baseline intensity of leg pain (HR=1.3, p=0.06), intensity of back pain (HR=1.4, p=0.03) and duration of sickness leave (HR=1.01 per day, p=0.03). CONCLUSION: A short course of adalimumab in patients with severe acute sciatica significantly reduces the need for back surgery.

Response of drug resistant isolates of Schistosoma mansoni to antischistosomal agents

The susceptibility of four isolates of Schistosoma mansoni (BH, MAP, MPR-1 and K) to four multiple doses of anti-schistosomal agents (hycanthone, niridazole, oxamniquire, and praziquantel) were evaluated in infected female Swiss albino mice. These schistosomal isolates had been maintained in the laboratory without further drug pressure for 20 to 30 generations. Multiple dosage regimens were used for each drug against each isolate of S. mansoni to generate ED50 (effective dose 50%) values. Results demonstrated that the K isolate is resistant to niridazole, the MPR-1 isolate to oxamniquine, and the MAP isolate to both hycanthone and oxamniquine. The BH isolate was susceptible to all drugs and was used as the reference isolate. All isolates were susceptible to praziquantel. The significance of the difference in response of the MPR-1 and MAP isolates is discussed. These results confirm the resistance of these isolates of S. mansoni of three schistosomicides and demonstrate that the resistance of these isolates are stable over long periods of time without exposure to drugs.

Generic super-exponential stability of invariant tori in Hamiltonian systems

In this article, we consider solutions starting close to some linearly stable invariant tori in an analytic Hamiltonian system and we prove results of stability for a super-exponentially long interval of time, under generic conditions. The proof combines classical Birkhoff normal forms and a new method to obtain generic Nekhoroshev estimates developed by the author and L. Niederman in another paper. We will mainly focus on the neighbourhood of elliptic fixed points, the other cases being completely similar.

Use of a selective medium with potassium tellurite to follow intestinal colonization of hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae

Nosocomial infections are a relevant factor in complicating the recovery of patients interned for even minor causes. In attempt to determine their origin it is crucial to consider that their origin is of an endogenous nature. Looking for an acessible expression of intestinal colonization we analyzed fecal samples from 3 separate groups of hospital patients collected after different lenghts of time. For practical reasons one group was studied prospectively and two other groups (patients hospitalized for up to 7 days and patients hospitalized for more than 7 days) were compared to one another. We looked for the emergence of tellurite resistance among Enterobacteriaceae using a selective medium. MacConkey potassium tellurite (MCPT). The frequence of prospectively studied patients with tellurite resistant strains was significantly greater after 7 days of hospitalization. For the two other groups, patients with more than 7 days of hospitalization showed a significant increase of bacterial species and of strains with new antimicrobial resistance markers. High molecular weigth plasmids were detected in some of these strains. These data show that the MCPT medium is a useful tool for the investigation of bowel colonization in hospitalized patients by drug-resistant Enterobacteriaceae.

On the safe of pesticides in controlling the terrestrial mollusc pests

The preferred food items of the slugs Laevicaulis alte and the snails Achatina fulica were used to prepare 'poison baits'by injecting the pesticides 'Rogor'and 'Nuvan'to kill these mollusc pests. The 'poison baits'prepared with Thrichosanthes dioica and Lycopersicum esculentum were accepted by 100% individuals of both the species irrespective of the pesticides used. In all cases the slug and the snail individuals died within a considerable length of time following consuption of the bait. The importance of using 'poison bait'lies not only with the sure success in killing the pests but also with the 'safe use'of toxic materials in order to avoid environmental hazards.

Effect of magnesium chloride and guanidinum chloride on the extraction of components of extracellular matrix from chicken cartilage

In order to evaluate the effect of chaotropic agents on proteoglycan and non-collagenous proteins, chicken xiphoid cartilage was treated with guanidine-HCI and MgCl2 in different concentrations (1M to 5M), and different periods of time (12, 24, 48 and 72hr). The maximum yield of uronic acid was obtained with 3M MgCl2 (73.3 per cent). Concentrations of 4M and 5M of MgCl2 showed that much less uronic acid was removed, 55.3 per cent and 38.1 respectively. Extraction with 3M MgCl2 and 3M guanidine-HCl resulted better efficiency when performed for 48 hr. Analysis by SDS-PAGE of the extracts obtained with guanidine-HCl and MgCl, in different concentrations pointed out that most components are equally removed with the two solvents, showing that the extraction with MgCl2 is an alternative assay to remove non-collagenous proteins from extracellular matrix.

In vivo differentiation of Trypanosoma cruzi - 1. Experimental evidence of the influence of vector species on metacyclogenesis

Vector species has not hitherto been studied as influencing metacyclogenesis of Trypanosoma cruzi, while the role of the parasite strain has been frequently stressed as of dominant importance in this process. In order to fill this gap in our knowledge, metacyclogenesis was monitored in nine triatomine species. The first part of this paper presents photographs of the main and intermediate parasite stages in each vector species studied. In the second part of the study the proportional distribution of all these forms, as seen in Giemsa stained smears is summarized, thus providing an opportunity to analyze both: the length of time between the ingestion of the blood trypomastigotes and the appearance of metacyclic forms and the rates of developmental stages leading to these latter. The most remarkable observation was that metacyclogenesis rates in vivo appear to be vector dependent, reaching 50 in Rhodnius neglectus, 37 in its congener R. prolixus and being dramatically lower in the majority of Triatoma species (5 in T. sordida, 3 in T. brasiliensis and 0 in T. pseudomaculata) at the 120th day of infection. These observations suggest that through screening of different vector species it is possible to find some that are capable of minimizing or maximizing metacyclic production.