Predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from Eurozone's banking sectors

This paper analyzes the in-, and out-of sample, predictability of the stock market returns from Eurozone’s banking sectors, arising from bank-specific ratios and macroeconomic variables, using panel estimation techniques. In order to do that, I set an unbalanced panel of 116 banks returns, from April, 1991, to March, 2013, to constitute equal-weighted country-sorted portfolios representative of the Austrian, Belgian, Finish, French, German, Greek, Irish, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish banking sectors. I find that both earnings per share (EPS) and the ratio of total loans to total assets have in-sample predictive power over the portfolios’ monthly returns whereas, regarding the cross-section of annual returns, only EPS retain significant explanatory power. Nevertheless, the sign associated with the impact of EPS is contrarian to the results of past literature. When looking at inter-yearly horizon returns, I document in-sample predictive power arising from the ratios of provisions to net interest income, and non-interest income to net income. Regarding the out-of-sample performance of the proposed models, I find that these would only beat the portfolios’ historical mean on the month following the disclosure of year-end financial statements. Still, the evidence found is not statistically significant. Finally, in a last attempt to find significant evidence of predictability of monthly and annual returns, I use Fama and French 3-Factor and Carhart models to describe the cross-section of returns. Although in-sample the factors can significantly track Eurozone’s banking sectors’ stock market returns, they do not beat the portfolios’ historical mean when forecasting returns.

O Marquês de Sousa Holstein e a formação da Galeria Nacional de Pintura da Academia de Belas Artes de Lisboa

Neste trabalho definimos e desenvolvemos algumas ideias centrais sobre a Galeria Nacional de Pintura da Academia de Belas Artes de Lisboa, da formação do seu acervo a partir de 1834, com a extinção das ordens religiosas, até à abertura do Museu Nacional de Belas Artes e Arqueologia, em 1884. Em análise estão 50 anos de esforços empreendidos por vários agentes, com destaque para o marquês de Sousa Holstein, vice-­‐inspetor da Academia, em prol da organização, conservação, exposição, estudo, promoção e divulgação do seu acervo, assim como do seu enriquecimento por meio de transferências, aquisições ou doações que estão na origem do mais relevante museu público de arte nacional.

Ruin problems under IBNR Dynamics

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time risk process allowing for delay in claim settlement, which introduces a certain type of dependence in the process. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability is obtained, and Lundberg-type inequalities are derived. The impact of delay in claim settlement is then investigated. To this end, a convex order comparison of the aggregate claim amounts is performed with the corresponding non-delayed risk model, and numerical simulations are carried out with Belgian market data.

Associative Issue Ownership as a Determinant of Voters' Campaign Attention

Campaigns raise public interest in politics and allow parties to convey their messages to voters. However, voters' exposure and attention during campaigns are biased towards parties and candidates they like. This hinders parties' ability to reach new voters. This paper theorises and empirically tests a simple way in which parties can break partisan selective attention: owning an issue. When parties own issues that are important for a voter, that voter is more likely to notice them. Using survey data collected prior to the 2009 Belgian regional elections it is shown that this effect exists independent of partisan preferences and while controlling for the absolute visibility of a party in the media. This indicates that issue ownership has an independent impact on voters' attention to campaigns. This finding shows that owning salient issues yields (potential) advantages for parties, since getting noticed is a prerequisite for conveying electoral messages and increasing electoral success.

Guy Ducornet

Guy Ducornet with the Primalphabet-Geographics paintings in 1976. The painting to the left is now situated in the Tower lobby.

Brock vs Concordia

Marty Calder of Brock wrestles Anthony Merlo of Concordia. This photograph has been translated into a painting which can now be seen just outside the Ian D. Beddis Gymnasium.

Why do some adults change their minds about what is important in the visual arts? : a case study

This-~-case study used ethnographic-methodo-logy. --The research project was an introductory study of one adult's present and past experiences with the visual arts, exploring, in particular, the causes and processes that were related to the individual's changes of mind in order to develop an understanding of why that individual had changed her mind about what was significant in the visual arts. The individual who provided the data was a solid supporter of art galleries: female, middle-aged, graduate of university and college, married with two children, and living in an urban community. The data were collected from two informal conversational interviews and from a written description of one change experience selected by the participant. The individual had positive experiences with art during early childhood, in elementary and secondary school, during university, in avocational drawing and painting studio courses, and in aesthetic experiences. All of these experiences have had individual effects and, together, they have had a cumulative effect on the development of the participant's opinions and ideas about the visual arts. The experiences which had the most effect on the development of the individual's perspectives on the visual arts were handson studio, educational, and aesthetic experiences. Further research is suggested to investigate why some adults change their minds about the visual arts.

Margaret Glassford fonds, 1941, 1951, 1961, 1971, 1973-1975, 1977-1984, 1986-2000, 2002, 2005, n.d.

Margaret was an only child who grew up on a farm just east of Cayuga, Ontario. After high school, Margaret attended Hamilton Teacher’s College and took a position with Grantham Public School Board and taught at Power Glen school. Margaret was married in 1962 and had 2 children, a daughter and a son in 1963 and 1964, respectively. Margaret left her teaching job to raise her children. Margaret was very creative and artistic and during this time, focused on these talents, which included painting, graphic arts and sewing. Margaret was also an accomplished pianist. In her 40’s, Margaret enrolled at Brock University and in 1989 obtained a Honors Bachelor of Arts degree with First-Class Honors in Sociology. In partial fulfillment of her Honors B.A. she completed her thesis that is entitled ; The State and Liberal Feminism: The Ontario Government’s “Business Ownership For Women Program”. While living in St. Catharines, Margaret attended York University and graduated with a Master of Arts in Sociology in 1992 where her studies focused on women’s issues. Margaret received a scholarship from York University and was a teaching assistant. Margaret stayed on at York University and completed her academic requirements for a Doctorate degree in Sociology. Her dissertation was on self employed women in St. Catharines at the beginning of WWII -- not the” Rosie the Riveters” who took over jobs formerly held by men who had to go off to fight World War II, but women who ran their own businesses when that was still unusual. Margaret completed the research for her thesis but did not complete her written thesis as she made a difficult decision to put her academic work on hold in the mid-1990’s and she returned to her love for the arts, although she always remained a voracious reader and interested in women’s issues. In the last decade of her life, she took up quilting with a passion, which she referred to as fabric arts. Margaret loved colour and being non-traditional. Margaret had been a quilting instructor at the Flemington College for Fine Arts in Haliburton. In 1997, Margaret founded Project Smile in the St. Catharines region, a non-profit group who make quilts for children with cancer. Margaret was also the President of the Niagara Heritage Quilters’ Guild in 2006-2007 and was very involved with the Local Council of Women.

Memorial Hall, Chapman College, Orange, California

Painting Memorial Hall brown, Chapman College, Orange, California, September, 1973. The previous color choice was pink.

"Where Gen. Brock died. Queenston. Oct. 13, 1812." by Clara Mason

[from back of painting] "The old house faced the river, and the artist has sketched the trees and old fences as they might have been at the time. The remains of the old well were found, and so the path from the house is represented as it probably appeared, together with the old fashioned well cover, common at that period. The artist has suggested a sunset background, in harmony with the evening of life of the old home and the passing of the great General. The house faced the east, so the western glory of the setting sun is most appropriate." The painting was done on paper and the frame is wooden. The artist's signature is located at the lower right. "House where General Brock died, Queenston, Ont."

Welland County Records, 1961-1989

The origins of the Welland County Fair date back to the founding of the County of Welland in 1852. A provincial charter was issued in 1853 to create the Welland County Agricultural Society that was to operate the Fair. In 1970, the Welland County Fair became the Niagara Regional Exhibition, and the Society became known as the Niagara Regional Agriculture Society. The Society seeks to “encourage interest, promote improvements in and advance the standards of agriculture, domestic industry and rural life”. The Welland Festival of Arts was developed in 1986 in order to revitalize the town’s economy. An “outdoor art gallery” was created by painting murals on buildings that depicted the town’s heritage, a concept successfully adopted by the town of Chemainus, B.C. The first mural was completed in the summer of 1988, and by 1991 there were a total of 28 murals around the city. The endeavour proved successful: in the years that followed the creation of the Festival, two new hotels were constructed, a third was expanded, and there was an addition to the Seaway Mall to accommodate the increased tourist traffic. Optimist International is a non-profit organization that strives to “bring out the best in kids” . The first Canadian club was formed in Toronto in 1924. The Welland branch of the Optimist Club was founded in 1937. The first Welland County General Hospital opened in 1908. As the population increased, it became necessary to expand the existing facilities. Additions were made to the original structure with an East wing in 1930 and a children’s ward in 1931. However, in the 1950’s, the hospital was operating beyond optimum capacity and the need for a larger facility was clear. It was decided that a new hospital would be built, which opened in April 1960. The new hospital had 259 beds and 51 bassinets. Further additions were made in 1967 and 1978. The County of Welland was formed in 1850 when it was officially separated from Lincoln County, however, the two counties continued to operate together until 1856 when a new County building and jail for Welland County were completed. That same year, the first meeting of the Council of the Corporation of Welland County took place. The final meeting of the Council took place on December 18, 1969. The following year, the County of Welland merged with Lincoln County to form the Regional Municipality of Niagara. The Welland Mills in Thorold, Ont., was built in 1846-1847 by Jacob Keefer and is thought to have been one of the largest flour mills in Upper Canada. Ownership of the mill changed several times over the years and previous owners include the Howland family, the Hedley Shaw Milling Company and the Maple Leaf Milling Company. In 1986, the building received a heritage plaque from the Ontario Heritage Foundation, an agency of the Ontario Ministry of Culture and Recreation. At this time, the mill was no longer in operation and was being used for storage by Fraser, Inc. By 2006, the dilapidated building had been redeveloped into18 apartments and 2 floors of commercial space, while maintaining many heritage features. The building is currently known as the Welland Mills Centre.

Genetic Programming for Non-Photorealistic Rendering

This thesis focuses on developing an evolutionary art system using genetic programming. The main goal is to produce new forms of evolutionary art that filter existing images into new non-photorealistic (NPR) styles, by obtaining images that look like traditional media such as watercolor or pencil, as well as brand new effects. The approach permits GP to generate creative forms of NPR results. The GP language is extended with different techniques and methods inspired from NPR research such as colour mixing expressions, image processing filters and painting algorithm. Colour mixing is a major new contribution, as it enables many familiar and innovative NPR effects to arise. Another major innovation is that many GP functions process the canvas (rendered image), while is dynamically changing. Automatic fitness scoring uses aesthetic evaluation models and statistical analysis, and multi-objective fitness evaluation is used. Results showed a variety of NPR effects, as well as new, creative possibilities.

Niagara Falls Seminary [school for young Ladies] advertisement, ca. 1840

One broadside advertising the Niagara Falls Seminary [school for young Ladies], run by Mrs. Shotter of Drummondville, ca. 1840. The advertisement contains information about fees and courses, including a complete English education, music, French, drawing and flower painting, and dancing. The bottom of the page contains a list of references for Mrs. Shotter, including Ex-Consul Buchanan, Colonel Delatre, Rev. W. Leeming, Rector of Chippawa (all of Drummondville); Dr. Mewburn (Stamford); Rev. T.B. Fuller, Rector of Thorold; John Stayner, Esq., P.M. Queenston; William Gamble, Esq., Milton, near Toronto; and Hon. John Hamilton, Kingston.

Niagara Falls Seminary [school for young Ladies] advertisement, ca. 1840

One broadside advertising the Niagara Falls Seminary [school for young Ladies], run by Mrs. Shotter of Drummondville, ca. 1840. The advertisement contains information about fees and courses, including a complete English education, music, French, drawing and flower painting, and dancing. The bottom of the page contains a list of references for Mrs. Shotter, including Ex-Consul Buchanan, Colonel Delatre, Rev. W. Leeming, Rector of Chippawa (all of Drummondville); Dr. Mewburn (Stamford); Rev. T.B. Fuller, Rector of Thorold; John Stayner, Esq., P.M. Queenston; William Gamble, Esq., Milton, near Toronto; and Hon. John Hamilton, Kingston.

Friendship Album

The album includes an illustration of a dog howling, by one of Eliza's friends. There is also a painting of roses. There is a poem signed Denison, that reads:" In truth it is not every book That's suited to the mind; In some forever you may look and no amusement find. But seldom does an album fail To please both grave and gay; It teams with many a merry tale and many a mournful day. Then reader know, whoever thou be Wise, witty, gay or sad; It's like the world in some degree Made up of good and bad". Another poem of eight verses is signed A. McNab. A poem and illustration are included by George Coventry. The illustration shows a man (presumed to be Coventry) looking at a book while others fish and work. Another poem initialed W.A.R. is thought to be by William Anthony Rooth, it is called "To Caroline". Also included in the album is a note from a Major who stayed at Eliza's home Christmas Day 1837. The note thanks Eliza for caring for him while he was ill at her home. A poem by Eliza's brother-in-law, Oliver T. Macklem is also included in the album. An illustration of two birds by Benjamin, Eliza's son, he was ten years old at the time. There is a poem written by L. D. Raymond with an attached newspaper clipping from Welland. The clipping is from L. D. Raymond's 79th birthday and is also a poem, "To the Old Barrister". There is a page of soldier autographs from 1866, those who fought in the Battle of Ridgeway during the Fenian Raid. (http://www.wikitree.com/wiki/Space:Ann_Eliza_Hepburne_Rooth%27s_1837_Album)