Effect of Temperature on the Development and Survival of the Argentine Ant, Linepithema humile

The influence of temperature on the developmental times and survival of insects can largely determine their distribution. For invasive species, like the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile Mayr (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), these data are essential for predicting their potential range based on mechanistic models. In the case of this species, such data are too scarce and incomplete to make accurate predictions based on its physiological needs. This research provides comprehensive new data about brood survival and developmental times at a wide range of temperatures under laboratory conditions. Temperature affected both the complete brood development from egg to adult worker and each of the immature stages separately. The higher the temperature, the shorter the development times. Brood survival from egg to adult was low, with the maximum survival rate being only 16% at 26° C. Temperature also affected survival of each of the immature stages differently: eggs were negatively affected by high temperatures, while larvae were negatively affected by low temperatures, and the survival of pupae was apparently independent of environmental temperature. At 32° C no eggs survived, while at 18° C less than 2% of the eggs hatched into larva. The data from the present study are essential for developing prediction models about the distribution range of this tramp species based on its physiological needs in relation to temperature

How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Fast docking using the CHARMM force field with EADock DSS.

The prediction of binding modes (BMs) occurring between a small molecule and a target protein of biological interest has become of great importance for drug development. The overwhelming diversity of needs leaves room for docking approaches addressing specific problems. Nowadays, the universe of docking software ranges from fast and user friendly programs to algorithmically flexible and accurate approaches. EADock2 is an example of the latter. Its multiobjective scoring function was designed around the CHARMM22 force field and the FACTS solvation model. However, the major drawback of such a software design lies in its computational cost. EADock dihedral space sampling (DSS) is built on the most efficient features of EADock2, namely its hybrid sampling engine and multiobjective scoring function. Its performance is equivalent to that of EADock2 for drug-like ligands, while the CPU time required has been reduced by several orders of magnitude. This huge improvement was achieved through a combination of several innovative features including an automatic bias of the sampling toward putative binding sites, and a very efficient tree-based DSS algorithm. When the top-scoring prediction is considered, 57% of BMs of a test set of 251 complexes were reproduced within 2 Å RMSD to the crystal structure. Up to 70% were reproduced when considering the five top scoring predictions. The success rate is lower in cross-docking assays but remains comparable with that of the latest version of AutoDock that accounts for the protein flexibility. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem, 2011.

Comparison of polyethylene wear in anatomical and reversed shoulder prostheses.

Wear of polyethylene is associated with aseptic loosening of orthopaedic implants and has been observed in hip and knee prostheses and anatomical implants for the shoulder. The reversed shoulder prostheses have not been assessed as yet. We investigated the volumetric polyethylene wear of the reversed and anatomical Aequalis shoulder prostheses using a mathematical musculoskeletal model. Movement and joint stability were achieved by EMG-controlled activation of the muscles. A non-constant wear factor was considered. Simulated activities of daily living were estimated from in vivo recorded data. After one year of use, the volumetric wear was 8.4 mm(3) for the anatomical prosthesis, but 44.6 mm(3) for the reversed version. For the anatomical prosthesis the predictions for contact pressure and wear were consistent with biomechanical and clinical data. The abrasive wear of the polyethylene in reversed prostheses should not be underestimated, and further analysis, both experimental and clinical, is required.

Constraints on the permeability structure of alluvial aquifers from P-wave sonic logs

Modern sonic logging tools designed for shallow environmental and engineering applications allow for P-wave phase velocity measurements over a wide frequency band. Methodological considerations indicate that, for saturated unconsolidated sediments in the silt to sand range and source frequencies ranging from approximately 1 to 30 kHz, the observable poro-elastic P-wave velocity dispersion is sufficiently pronounced to allow for reliable first-order estimations of the underlying permeability structure. These predictions have been tested on and verified for a surficial alluvial aquifer. Our results indicate that, even without any further calibration, the thus obtained permeability estimates as well as their variabilities within the pertinent lithological units are remarkably close to those expected based on the corresponding granulometric characteristics.

Phenotypic novelty in experimental hybrids is predicted by the genetic distance between species of cichlid fish.

BACKGROUND: Transgressive segregation describes the occurrence of novel phenotypes in hybrids with extreme trait values not observed in either parental species. A previously experimentally untested prediction is that the amount of transgression increases with the genetic distance between hybridizing species. This follows from QTL studies suggesting that transgression is most commonly due to complementary gene action or epistasis, which become more frequent at larger genetic distances. This is because the number of QTLs fixed for alleles with opposing signs in different species should increase with time since speciation provided that speciation is not driven by disruptive selection. We measured the amount of transgression occurring in hybrids of cichlid fish bred from species pairs with gradually increasing genetic distances and varying phenotypic similarity. Transgression in multi-trait shape phenotypes was quantified using landmark-based geometric morphometric methods. RESULTS: We found that genetic distance explained 52% and 78% of the variation in transgression frequency in F1 and F2 hybrids, respectively. Confirming theoretical predictions, transgression when measured in F2 hybrids, increased linearly with genetic distance between hybridizing species. Phenotypic similarity of species on the other hand was not related to the amount of transgression. CONCLUSION: The commonness and ease with which novel phenotypes are produced in cichlid hybrids between unrelated species has important implications for the interaction of hybridization with adaptation and speciation. Hybridization may generate new genotypes with adaptive potential that did not reside as standing genetic variation in either parental population, potentially enhancing a population's responsiveness to selection. Our results make it conceivable that hybridization contributed to the rapid rates of phenotypic evolution in the large and rapid adaptive radiations of haplochromine cichlids.

Managing diabetes in Switzerland : a systemic approach

Executive summaryThe increasing prevalence of chronic diseases is one of the major causes of rising health expenditure, as stated by the WHO. Not only chronic diseases are very costly, but they are by far the leading cause of mortality in the world, representing 60% of all deaths. Diabetes in particular is becoming a major burden of disease. In Switzerland around 5% of the population suffer of type 2 diabetes and 5 to 10% of the annual health care budget is attributable to diabetes. If the predictions of WHO do realise, the prevalence of diabetes will double until 2030 and so is expected the attributable health expenditure.The objective of this thesis is to provide policy recommendations as to slow down the disease progression and its costly complication. We study the factors that influence diabetes dynamics and the interventions that improve health outcomes while decreasing costs according to different time horizon and use systems thinking and system dynamic.Our results show that managing diabetes requires using integrated care interventions that are effective on three fronts: (1) delaying the onset of complications, (2) slowing down the disease progression and (3) accelerating the time to diagnosis of diabetes and its complications. We recommend firstly the implementation of those interventions targeted at changing patients' behaviour which are also less expensive, but require a change in the delivery of care and medical practices. Then policies targeted at an earlier diagnosis of diabetes, its prevention and the diagnosis of complications are to be considered. This sequence of interventions allows saving money, as total costs decrease, even including the costs of interventions and result in longer life expectancy of diabetics in the long term.In diabetes management there is therefore a trade-off between medical costs and patients' benefits on the one hand and between the objectives of obtaining results in the short or long term on the other hand. Decision makers need to deliver acceptable outcomes in the short term. Considering this criterion, the preferred policy may be to focus only on diagnosed diabetics, thus attempting to slow down the progression of their disease, compared to an integrated care approach addressing all the aspects of the disease. Such a policy also yields desirable results in terms of costs and patients' benefits.

Reaction-diffusion wave fronts: Multigeneration biological species under climate change

A generalization of reaction-diffusion models to multigeneration biological species is presented. It is based on more complex random walks than those in previous approaches. The new model is developed analytically up to infinite order. Our predictions for the speed agree to experimental data for several butterfly species better than existing models. The predicted dependence for the speed on the number of generations per year allows us to explain the change in speed observed for a specific invasion

Essays in banking and corporate finance

Abstract This paper presents a model of executive compensation in which the executive is risk-averse and has specific knowledge -knowledge about the optimal actions to take that is costly to transfer to the principal. The model generates predictions that are consistent with the available evidence and provides a rationale for a number of unresolved puzzles in executive compensation. Notably, we find that relative performance evaluation is optimal only if the quality of specific knowledge is low. We also show (1) why some common risk components are not filtered out of executives' pay, (2) why performance is more likely to be evaluated relative to aggregate market movements than relative to industry movements, and (3) why executives with higher perceived abilities are given stronger incentives. Finally, we demonstrate that the relation between risk and incentives may be positive or negative, depending on the quality of the executive's specific knowledge.

Oxidation of silicon: further tests for the interfacial silicon emission model

The classical description of Si oxidation given by Deal and Grove has well-known limitations for thin oxides (below 200 Ã). Among the large number of alternative models published so far, the interfacial emission model has shown the greatest ability to fit the experimental oxidation curves. It relies on the assumption that during oxidation Si interstitials are emitted to the oxide to release strain and that the accumulation of these interstitials near the interface reduces the reaction rate there. The resulting set of differential equations makes it possible to model diverse oxidation experiments. In this paper, we have compared its predictions with two sets of experiments: (1) the pressure dependence for subatmospheric oxygen pressure and (2) the enhancement of the oxidation rate after annealing in inert atmosphere. The result is not satisfactory and raises serious doubts about the model’s correctness

RECHERCHE TRANSLATIONNELLE EN NEUROSCIENCES PSYCHIATRIQUES: DE L'ANIMAL MODELE DE SCHIZOPHRENIE A LA DETECTION D'UNE DESORIENTATION SPATIALE, PRATIQUE OU SYMBOLIQUE CHEZ DES PATIENTS

La modélisation, chez l'animal, de maladies psychiatriques telles que la schizophrénie repose sur différentes démarches visant à induire des perturbations cérébrales similaires à celles observées dans la maladie. Nous avons cherché à étudier chez le rat les effets d'une diminution (50%) transitoire en glutathion (GSH) durant le développement (PND 5 à PND 16) à partir de l'implication, chez des adultes, des conséquences de cette perturbation dans des mécanismes fondamentaux de traitement de l'information sensorielle. Cette thèse évalue et documente les déficits de compétences de navigation spatiale dans ce modèle. Nous avons mis en évidence des effets comportementaux à partir de l'identification de différences particulières dans des tâches d'orientation: des difficultés, chez les rats ayant subi un déficit en GSH, à élaborer une représentation globale de l'environnement dans lequel ils se déplacent, difficultés compensées par une attention particulière aux détails visuels le composant. Cette stratégie réactive compensatoire est efficace lorsque les conditions permettent un ajustement continu aux repères visuels environnementaux. Elle ne permet cependant pas des prédictions et des attentes sur ce qui devrait être rencontré et perçu dans une certaine direction, dès qu'une partie des informations visuelles familières disparaît. Il faudrait pour cela une capacité fondée sur une représentation abstraite, à distance des modalités sensorielles qui en ont permis son élaboration. Notre thèse soutient que les déficits, supposés participer à l'émergence de certains symptômes de la maladie, auraient également des conséquences sur l'élaboration de la représentation spatiale nécessaire à des capacités d'orientation effectives et symboliques. - The study of a psychiatric disease such as schizophrenia in an animal model relies on different approaches attempting to replicate brain perturbations similar to those observed in the illness. In the present work, behavioural consequences of a functional deficit in brain connectivity and coordination were assessed in rats with a transitory glutathione (GSH) deficit induced during the postnatal development (PND 5-PND 16) with daily injections of BSO (1- buthionine-(S,R)- sulfoximine). We searched for a theoretical syndrome associating ecologically relevant behavioural adaptive deficits and resulting from the weakening of sensory integration processes. Our results revealed significant and specific deficit of BSO treated rats in spatial orientation tasks designed to test for cognitive mapping abilities. Treated rats behaved as if impaired in the proactive strategies supported by an abstract representation such as a cognitive map. In contrast their performances were preserved whenever the environmental conditions allowed for adaptative reactive strategies, an equivalent of the visual affordances described by Gibson (1958). This supports our thesis that BSO treated rats expressed difficulties in elaborating a global representation of the environment. This deficit was completely - or - partially compensated by the development of an increased attention to the environment's visual details. This compensatory reactive strategy requires a rich environment allowing for continuous adjustment to visual cues. However, such adjustment doesn't allow to predictions and expectancies about what should be met and perceived in a certain direction, when familiar visual spatial cues are missing. Such competencies require orientation based on the use of an abstract spatial representation, independent from the specific sensory modalities that have participated to its elaboration. The impairment of BSO rats such spatial representation could result from a deficit in the integration and organization of perceptual information. Our model leads to the hypothesis that these fundamental deficits might account for certain symptoms of schizophrenia. They would also interfere with in the capacity to elaborate spatial representation necessary for optimal orientation in natural, artificial or symbolic environment.

Genomic organization and gene expression in a chromosomal region of Leishmania major.

Little is known about the relation between the genome organization and gene expression in Leishmania. Bioinformatic analysis can be used to predict genes and find homologies with known proteins. A model was proposed, in which genes are organized into large clusters and transcribed from only one strand, in the form of large polycistronic primary transcripts. To verify the validity of this model, we studied gene expression at the transcriptional, post-transcriptional and translational levels in a unique locus of 34kb located on chr27 and represented by cosmid L979. Sequence analysis revealed 115 ORFs on either DNA strand. Using computer programs developed for Leishmania genes, only nine of these ORFs, localized on the same strand, were predicted to code for proteins, some of which show homologies with known proteins. Additionally, one pseudogene, was identified. We verified the biological relevance of these predictions. mRNAs from nine predicted genes and proteins from seven were detected. Nuclear run-on analyses confirmed that the top strand is transcribed by RNA polymerase II and suggested that there is no polymerase entry site. Low levels of transcription were detected in regions of the bottom strand and stable transcripts were identified for four ORFs on this strand not predicted to be protein-coding. In conclusion, the transcriptional organization of the Leishmania genome is complex, raising the possibility that computer predictions may not be comprehensive.