Geomorphic dam-break flows. Part I: conceptual model

Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Water Management 163 Issue WM6

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees : the PredictAL study

Background: Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. Methods: A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score >= 8 in men and >= 5 in women. Results: 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). Conclusions: The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Life Cycle Assessment of the Hybrid Vehicle – Toyota Prius

Die Luftverschmutzung, die globale Erwärmung sowie die Verknappung der endlichen Ressourcen sind die größten Bedenken der vergangenen Jahrzehnte. Die Nachfrage nach jeglicher Mobilität steigt rapide. Dementsprechend bemüht ist die Automobilindustrie Lösungen für Mobilität unter dem Aspekt der Nachhaltigkeit und dem Umweltschutz anzubieten. Die Elektrifizierung hat sich hierbei als der beste Weg herausgestellt, um die Umweltprobleme sowie die Abhängigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen zu lösen. Diese Arbeit soll einen Einblick über die Umweltauswirkungen des Hybridfahrzeuges Toyota Prius geben. Hierbei findet eine Gliederung in vier verschiedene Lebensphasen statt. Im Anschluss bietet die Sachbilanz die Möglichkeit die Umweltauswirkungen mit verschiedenen Antriebsmöglichkeiten und Brennstoffen zu vergleichen. Das Modell hat gezeigt, dass der Toyota Prius während der Nutzung einen hohen Einfluss auf das Treibhauspotenzial aufweist. Durch die Nutzung anderer Brennstoffe, wie beispielsweise Ethanol oder Methanol lassen sich die Auswirkungen am Treibhauspotenzial sowie der Verbrauch an abiotischen Ressourcen reduzieren. Vergleicht man die Elektromobilität mit der konventionellen, so ist festzustellen, dass diese Art der Mobilität die derzeit beste Möglichkeit zur Reduzierung der Umweltbelastungen bietet. Die Auswirkungen der Elektromobilität sind im hohen Maße abhängig von der Art des verwendeten Strommixes.

Rede de Distribuição da ilha Graciosa: Análise e Exploração de Funcionamento

Nos tempos atuais as empresas que atuam no ramo dos sistemas elétricos de energias enfrentam desafios cada vez mais exigentes, dado o enquadramento normativo a que estão sujeitas por parte da entidade reguladora dos serviços energéticos. No caso do Arquipélago dos Açores, o normativo relativo ao regulamento da qualidade de serviço entrou em vigor em 2006, trazendo à EDA,S.A. (Eletricidade dos Açores), entidade responsável pelo transporte e distribuição de energia na região, novas exigências para adequados níveis de eficiência e de garantias aos clientes, no que respeita à qualidade de serviço que lhes é prestado. No âmbito deste trabalho, é efetuado o estudo do trânsito de potência sobre a rede distribuição 15 kV da ilha Graciosa. Para tal, é realizada a modelização da rede no software de rede elétricas porwerworld 8.0. e são idealizados um conjunto de cenários de exploração da rede, que visam simular situações reais que ocorrem na exploração diária da rede de distribuição da ilha. Nas simulações a efetuar consideram-se dois cenários com perfil de carga distintos, um referente à ponta máxima, e outro referente ao vazio mínimo, verificados no ano de 2014. Quanto ao modo de exploração da rede nos cenários a simular, é contemplado o modo de exploração normalmente operado pela empresa gestora, bem como diversas reconfigurações sobre o modo de exploração normalmente operado, realizadas através da abertura e fecho dos aparelhos de corte constituintes da rede. Em todos os cenários simulados, é realizado um estudo relativamente à potência de perdas do sistema, ao perfil da tensão nos diversos postos de transformação, e ao congestionamento de energia verificado nas linhas de distribuição da rede.

Phenotypical and genotypical characterization of Bordetella pertussis strains isolated in São Paulo, Brazil, 1988-2002

Whooping cough or pertussis was a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in the world until the introduction of a whole-cell vaccine in the 1940's. However, since the early 1980's whooping cough cases have increased in many countries, becoming an important problem of public health. This increase may be due to accuracy of laboratory diagnosis and reporting of the disease, a decline in immunity over time, demographic changes, and adaptation of the bacterial population to vaccine-induced immunity. The purpose of this study was to analyze phenotypically and genotypically a collection of 67 Bordetella pertussis isolates recovered during the period 1988-2002 in São Paulo State, Brazil to determine their characteristics and relatedness. All isolates were submitted to susceptibility testing to erythromycin, serotyping, and 56 isolates were analyzed by Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE). All isolates were susceptible to erythromycin and the majority of them belonged to serotype 1,3. The 56 isolates were classified into 11 PFGE profiles according to the differences in banding patterns. Although more than 60% of the isolates were recovered from patients aged less than three months, almost 15% of them were isolated from adolescents/adults evidencing the increase in the incidence of pertussis among this group of age.

Dynamic stability metrics for the container loading problem

The Container Loading Problem (CLP) literature has traditionally evaluated the dynamic stability of cargo by applying two metrics to box arrangements: the mean number of boxes supporting the items excluding those placed directly on the floor (M1) and the percentage of boxes with insufficient lateral support (M2). However, these metrics, that aim to be proxies for cargo stability during transportation, fail to translate real-world cargo conditions of dynamic stability. In this paper two new performance indicators are proposed to evaluate the dynamic stability of cargo arrangements: the number of fallen boxes (NFB) and the number of boxes within the Damage Boundary Curve fragility test (NB_DBC). Using 1500 solutions for well-known problem instances found in the literature, these new performance indicators are evaluated using a physics simulation tool (StableCargo), replacing the real-world transportation by a truck with a simulation of the dynamic behaviour of container loading arrangements. Two new dynamic stability metrics that can be integrated within any container loading algorithm are also proposed. The metrics are analytical models of the proposed stability performance indicators, computed by multiple linear regression. Pearson’s r correlation coefficient was used as an evaluation parameter for the performance of the models. The extensive computational results show that the proposed metrics are better proxies for dynamic stability in the CLP than the previous widely used metrics.

Quality-of-service aware routing for static and mobile IPv6-based low-power and lossy sensor networks using RPL

The Internet of Things (IoT) has emerged as a paradigm over the last few years as a result of the tight integration of the computing and the physical world. The requirement of remote sensing makes low-power wireless sensor networks one of the key enabling technologies of IoT. These networks encompass several challenges, especially in communication and networking, due to their inherent constraints of low-power features, deployment in harsh and lossy environments, and limited computing and storage resources. The IPv6 Routing Protocol for Low Power and Lossy Networks (RPL) [1] was proposed by the IETF ROLL (Routing Over Low-power Lossy links) working group and is currently adopted as an IETF standard in the RFC 6550 since March 2012. Although RPL greatly satisfied the requirements of low-power and lossy sensor networks, several issues remain open for improvement and specification, in particular with respect to Quality of Service (QoS) guarantees and support for mobility. In this paper, we focus mainly on the RPL routing protocol. We propose some enhancements to the standard specification in order to provide QoS guarantees for static as well as mobile LLNs. For this purpose, we propose OF-FL (Objective Function based on Fuzzy Logic), a new objective function that overcomes the limitations of the standardized objective functions that were designed for RPL by considering important link and node metrics, namely end-to-end delay, number of hops, ETX (Expected transmission count) and LQL (Link Quality Level). In addition, we present the design of Co-RPL, an extension to RPL based on the corona mechanism that supports mobility in order to overcome the problem of slow reactivity to frequent topology changes and thus providing a better quality of service mainly in dynamic networks application. Performance evaluation results show that both OF-FL and Co-RPL allow a great improvement when compared to the standard specification, mainly in terms of packet loss ratio and average network latency. 2015 Elsevier B.V. Al

Cutting path as a rural postman problem

The Rural Postman Problem (RPP) is a particular Arc Routing Problem (ARP) which consists of determining a minimum cost circuit on a graph so that a given subset of required edges is traversed. The RPP is an NP-hard problem with significant real-life applications. This paper introduces an original approach based on Memetic Algorithms - the MARP algorithm - to solve the RPP and, also deals with an interesting Industrial Application, which focuses on the path optimization for component cutting operations. Memetic Algorithms are a class of Metaheuristics which may be seen as a population strategy that involves cooperation and competition processes between population elements and integrates “social knowledge”, using a local search procedure. The MARP algorithm is tested with different groups of instances and the results are compared with those gathered from other publications. MARP is also used in the context of various real-life applications.

Perinatal Bacterial Infection: Screenning of Vertical Transmitted Infections

Perinatal bacterial infection may be caused by any microorganism colonizing the vaginal tract. Neonatologists and paediatricians are especially concerned about group B Stretpococcus (GBS). However, Enterobactereacea, mainly E.coli and Proteus, are also responsible for infection. GBS screening may be accomplished in over 90% of pregnant women. In our maternity in 2007-2008, 85% of the mothers had been screened. Screening and prophylaxis were responsible for a decreasing incidence of neonatal infection - from 0.6/1000 to 0.15/1000 live births in Portugal, from 2002 to 2007. However there are some difficulties related to screening. In the second Portuguese study 16/57 NB with early-onset infection (28%) were born to “negative” mothers. Several factors illustrate how difficult is to draw national screening policies: a wide range of carrier’s state rate throughout a country - in Portugal from 12% to 30%. The success of any screening policy may also be affected by additional technical and organizational problems. In countries where home delivery is a tradition or a trend intrapartum GBS prophylaxis requires a very well organized assistance.. Moreover factors usually accepted as protective are not so effective. In the Portuguese study 24/57 infected newborns (42%) were delivery by caesarean section. Another subject deals with the workload in the postnatal ward generated by deficient compliance to the guidelines a problem not confirm by a study of our group. Decreasing the importance of GBS, highlight the importance of E. coli in perinatal infection. From the 16 340 registrations of the National Registry 1676 were newborns with mother-related infection. Applying the same reasoning to E.coli as to GBS and Listeria monocytogenes – that is considering all of them are of maternal origin - 6.7% of these infections were due to E. coli, 4.6% to SGB and 0.5% to Listeria monocytogenes. In conclusion screening and prophylaxis may be not the best way to prevent all GBS neonatal infections but by now it is the only available procedure. The other bacteria continue to demand a high suspicion level and immediate intervention.

Neglected tropical diseases in Brazil

Poverty is intrinsically related to the incidence of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). The main countries that have the lowest human development indices (HDI) and the highest burdens of NTDs are located in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Among these countries is Brazil, which is ranked 70th in HDI. Nine out of the ten NTDs established by the World Health Organization (WHO) are present in Brazil. Leishmaniasis, tuberculosis, dengue fever and leprosy are present over almost the entire Brazilian territory. More than 90% of malaria cases occur in the Northern region of the country, and lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis occur in outbreaks in a particular region. The North and Northeast regions of Brazil have the lowest HDIs and the highest rates of NTDs. These diseases are considered neglected because there is not important investment in projects for the development of new drugs and vaccines and existing programs to control these diseases are not sufficient. Another problem related to NTDs is co-infection with HIV, which favors the occurrence of severe clinical manifestations and therapeutic failure. In this article, we describe the status of the main NTDs currently occurring in Brazil and relate them to the HDI and poverty.

Promoção da saúde oral: uma experiência de prevenção de cárie num concelho rural

Resumo: A cárie dentária, um problema que tem atingido populações em grande parte do mundo, é a doença de maior prevalência da cavidade oral, gerando graves consequências económicas e sociais. Esta doença tem sido estudada ao longo do tempo em diferentes países com o emprego de diversos índices, geralmente para o estudo da sua prevalência, a avaliação de medidas preventivas e o adequado planeamento das acções e serviços de saúde oral. O objectivo deste Projecto foi determinar se a escovagem quando realizada na escola com pasta fluoretada, e supervisionada pelos professores, duas vezes por dia, seria ou não eficaz na diminuição das populações microbianas de Streptococcus mutans e Lactobacillus e na consequente diminuição da incidência de cárie dentária. Material e métodos: Foram seleccionadas todas as crianças (universo = 178), com idades compreendidas entre os 5, 6 e 7 anos, residentes no Concelho de Aljustrel e a frequentar o pré-escolar e o primeiro ciclo do ensino básico oficial. Foi realizada a escovagem bi-diária com pasta fluoretada a 500 ppm F-, na escola, segundo o método de Bass modificado, supervisionado pelos professores titulares de turma, que tiveram formação da técnica de escovagem utilizada. Durante os 3 anos de estudo foram realizadas 6 observações dentárias e recolhas salivares para contagem de Streptococcus mutans e Lactobacillus e avaliação da capacidade tampão da saliva. Resultados: O grupo de estudo no início da intervenção apresentava valores dos índices de cárie dentária mais elevados do que os do grupo de controlo (mais 0,109 no CPO-S, 0,0749 no CPO-D, 1,505 no cpo-s e 0,831 no cpo-d), porém sem diferenças de significância estatística. A análise estatística dos resultados não veio confirmar este pressuposto uma vez que o grupo de estudo apresentou um aumento percentual ligeiramente maior do índice CPO-D (12,5%) do que o grupo de controlo (11,6%). Para além deste aspecto, ao contrário do que seria de esperar, não foi possível detectar nenhuma diferença estatisticamente significativa em nenhum dos índices de cárie dentária (cpo-s, cpo-d, CPO-S e CPO-D) entre o grupo de estudo e grupo de controlo entre a 1ª e última observação.Ainda que os resultados do estudo aqui apresentado tenham ficado aquém do esperado, deveria ser efectuada a escovagem diária na escola, uma vez por dia, com pasta fluoretada a 1000 ppm F-, atendendo a que esta medida contribui para a promoção da saúde e prevenção da doença e é facilitadora da construção de estilos de vida saudáveis.-------ABSTRACT: Dental caries, a problem that has affected populations worldwide, is one of the most prevalent diseases of the oral cavity, causing severe economic and social consequences. This disease has been studied over time in different countries with the use of various indices, usually for the knowledge of its prevalence, evaluation of preventive measures and appropriate planning of actions and oral services. The aim of this study was to determine whether toothbrushing when performed in schools, with fluoride toothpaste, and supervised by teachers twice a day, was effective in reducing microbial populations of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus with consequent reduction in the incidence of dental caries. Material and Methods: All children aged 5, 6, and 7 years, from Aljustrel County, attending official pre-school and first cycle of basic educatio were selected. Toothbrushing was performed twice a day with toothpaste with 500 ppm F-,in the school, according to the modified Bass method, supervised by professors in the class, who were trained in the brushing technique used. During the study period were performed 6 observations of the dental status, and were also collected saliva for the count of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus, and assessment of buffering capacity of saliva. Results: The study group at the beginning of the intervention had higher values of dental caries than the control group (more than 0,109 in DMF-S, 0, 0749 in DMF, dmf-s 1,505 and 0,831 in dmf-t) although without statistical significance. The expected results were not confirmed, since the study group had a slightly higher percentage increase of the DMF-T (12,5%) than the control group (11,6%). Apart from that, contrary to what one would expect, we could not detect any statistical significant difference in any of the indices of dental caries (dmf-s, dmf-t and DMF-S, DMF-T) between the study and the control group in all study periods. Although the study results were not has expected, toothbrushing should be performed daily at school, once a day with fluoride toothpaste with 1000 ppm F-, since this measure contributes to health promotion and disease prevention and encourages healthy lifestyles.

A framework for scientific computing with GPUs

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

A ten-year follow-up of human leptospirosis in Uruguay: an unresolved health problem

Leptospira spp. are delicate bacteria that cannot be studied by usual microbiological methods. They cause leptospirosis, a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans through infected urine of wild or domestic animals. We studied the incidence of this disease in the Uruguayan population, its epidemiologic and clinical features, and compared diagnostic techniques. After examining 6,778 suspect cases, we estimated that about 15 infections/100,000 inhabitants occurred yearly, affecting mainly young male rural workers. Awareness about leptospirosis has grown among health professionals, and its lethality has consequently decreased. Bovine infections were probably the principal source of human disease. Rainfall volumes and floods were major factors of varying incidence. Most patients had fever, asthenia, myalgias or cephalalgia, with at least one additional abnormal clinical feature. 30-40% of confirmed cases presented abdominal signs and symptoms, conjunctival suffusion and altered renal or urinary function. Jaundice was more frequent in patients aged > 40 years. Clinical infections followed an acute pattern and their usual outcome was complete recovery. Laboratory diagnosis was based on indirect micro-agglutination standard technique (MAT). Second serum samples were difficult to obtain, often impairing completion of diagnosis. Immunofluorescence was useful as a screening test and for early detection of probable infections.