A nonparametric method of comparing the partial areas under two correlated receiver operating characteristic curves

A non-parametric method was developed and tested to compare the partial areas under two correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Based on the theory of generalized U-statistics the mathematical formulas have been derived for computing ROC area, and the variance and covariance between the portions of two ROC curves. A practical SAS application also has been developed to facilitate the calculations. The accuracy of the non-parametric method was evaluated by comparing it to other methods. By applying our method to the data from a published ROC analysis of CT image, our results are very close to theirs. A hypothetical example was used to demonstrate the effects of two crossed ROC curves. The two ROC areas are the same. However each portion of the area between two ROC curves were found to be significantly different by the partial ROC curve analysis. For computation of ROC curves with large scales, such as a logistic regression model, we applied our method to the breast cancer study with Medicare claims data. It yielded the same ROC area computation as the SAS Logistic procedure. Our method also provides an alternative to the global summary of ROC area comparison by directly comparing the true-positive rates for two regression models and by determining the range of false-positive values where the models differ. ^

A Wavelet Analysis of Pliopleistocene Climate Indicators: A New View of Periodicity Evolution

Wavelet analysis offers an alternative to Fourier based time-series analysis, and is particularly useful when the amplitudes and periods of dominant cycles are time dependent. We analyse climatic records derived from oxygen isotopic ratios of marine sediment cores with modified Morlet wavelets. We use a normalization of the Morlet wavelets which allows direct correspondence with Fourier analysis. This provides a direct view of the oscillations at various frequencies, and illustrates the nature of the time-dependence of the dominant cycles.

Surface Deformations as Indicators of Deep Ebullition Fluxes in a Large Northern Peatland

Peatlands deform elastically during precipitation cycles by small (+/- 3 cm) oscillations in surface elevation. In contrast, we used a Global Positioning System network to measure larger oscillations that exceeded 20 cm over periods of 4 - 12 hours during two seasonal droughts at a bog and fen site in northern Minnesota. The second summer drought also triggered 19 depressuring cycles in an overpressured stratum under the bog site. The synchronicity between the largest surface deformations and the depressuring cycles indicates that both phenomena are produced by the episodic release of large volumes of gas from deep semi-elastic compartments confined by dense wood layers. We calculate that the three largest surface deformations were associated with the release of 136 g CH4 m(-2), which exceeds by an order of magnitude the annual average chamber fluxes measured at this site. Ebullition of gas from the deep peat may therefore be a large and previously unrecognized source of radiocarbon depleted methane emissions from northern peatlands.

Evaluation of coughing and nasal discharge as early indicators for an increased risk to develop equine recurrent airway obstruction (RAO).

BACKGROUND It is often assumed that horses with mild respiratory clinical signs, such as mucous nasal discharge and occasional coughing, have an increased risk of developing recurrent airway obstruction (RAO). HYPOTHESIS Compared to horses without any clinical signs of respiratory disease, those with occasional coughing, mucous nasal discharge, or both have an increased risk of developing signs of RAO (frequent coughing, increased breathing effort, exercise intolerance, or a combination of these) as characterized by the Horse Owner Assessed Respiratory Signs Index (HOARSI 1-4). ANIMALS Two half-sibling families descending from 2 RAO-affected stallions (n = 65 and n = 47) and an independent replication population of unrelated horses (n = 88). METHODS In a retrospective cohort study, standardized information on occurrence and frequency of coughing, mucous nasal discharge, poor performance, and abnormal breathing effort-and these factors combined in the HOARSI-as well as management factors were collected at intervals of 1.3-5 years. RESULTS Compared to horses without clinical signs of respiratory disease (half-siblings 7%; unrelated horses 3%), those with mild respiratory signs developed clinical signs of RAO more frequently: half-siblings with mucous nasal discharge 35% (P < .001, OR: 7.0, sensitivity: 62%, specificity: 81%), with mucous nasal discharge and occasional coughing 43% (P < .001, OR: 9.9, sensitivity: 55%, specificity: 89%); unrelated horses with occasional coughing: 25% (P = .006, OR = 9.7, sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 76%). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPORTANCE Occasional coughing and mucous nasal discharge might represent an increased risk of developing RAO.

The role of human-induced fire and sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) cultivation on the long-term landscape dynamics of the southern Swiss Alps

Changes in fire occurrence during the last decades in the southern Swiss Alps make knowledge on fire history essential to understand future evolution of the ecosystem composition and functioning. In this context, palaeoecology provides useful insights into processes operating at decadal-to-millennial time scales, such as the response of plant communities to intensified fire disturbances during periods of cultural change. We provide a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal and pollen series from Guèr, a well-dated peat sequence at mid-elevation (832 m.a.s.l.) in southern Switzerland, where the presence of local settlements is documented since the late Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Quantitative fire reconstruction shows that fire activity sharply increased from the Neolithic period (1–3 episodes/1000 year) to the late Bronze and Iron Age (7–9 episodes/1000 year), leading to extensive clearance of the former mixed deciduous forest (Alnus glutinosa, Betula, deciduous Quercus). The increase in anthropogenic pollen indicators (e.g. Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata) together with macroscopic charcoal suggests anthropogenic rather than climatic forcing as the main cause of the observed vegetation shift. Fire and controlled burning were extensively used during the late Roman Times and early Middle Ages to promote the introduction and establishment of chestnut (Castanea sativa) stands, which provided an important wood and food supply. Fire occurrence declined markedly (from 9 to 5–6 episodes/1000 year) during late Middle Ages because of fire suppression, biomass removal by human population, and landscape fragmentation. Land-abandonment during the last decades allowed forest to partly re-expand (mainly Alnus glutinosa, Betula) and fire frequency to increase.

Impact of Team Familiarity in the Operating Room on Surgical Complications

BACKGROUND: The quality of surgical performance depends on the technical skills of the surgical team as well as on non-technical skills, including teamwork. The present study evaluated the impact of familiarity among members of the surgical team on morbidity in patients undergoing elective open abdominal surgery. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed to compare the surgical outcomes of patients who underwent major abdominal operations between the first month (period I) and the last month (period II) of a 6-month period of continuous teamwork (stable dyads of one senior and one junior surgeon formed every 6 months). Of 117 patients, 59 and 58 patients underwent operations during period I and period II, respectively, between January 2010 and June 2012. Team performance was assessed via questionnaire by specialized work psychologists; in addition, intraoperative sound levels were measured. RESULTS: The incidence of overall complications was significantly higher in period I than in period II (54.2 vs. 34.5 %; P = 0.041). Postoperative complications grade <3 were significantly more frequently diagnosed in patients who had operations during period I (39.0 vs. 15.5 %; P = 0.007), whereas no between-group differences in grade ≥3 complications were found (15.3 vs. 19.0 %; P = 0.807). Concentration scores from senior surgeons were significantly higher in period II than in period I (P = 0.033). Sound levels during the middle third part of the operations were significantly higher in period I (median above the baseline 8.85 dB [range 4.5-11.3 dB] vs. 7.17 dB [5.24-9.43 dB]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Team familiarity improves team performance and reduces morbidity in patients undergoing abdominal surgery.

Evaluation of Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a syndromic surveillance system

BACKGROUND: We evaluated Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a national syndromic surveillance system for the early detection of emerging diseases in production animals. We analysed meat inspection data for cattle, pigs and small ruminants slaughtered between 2007 and 2012 (including emergency slaughters of sick/injured animals); investigating patterns in the number of animals slaughtered and condemned; the reasons invoked for whole carcass condemnations; reporting biases and regional effects. RESULTS: Whole carcass condemnation rates were fairly uniform (1-2‰) over time and between the different types of production animals. Condemnation rates were much higher and less uniform following emergency slaughters. The number of condemnations peaked in December for both cattle and pigs, a time when individuals of lower quality are sent to slaughter when hay and food are limited and when certain diseases are more prevalent. Each type of production animal was associated with a different profile of condemnation reasons. The most commonly reported one was "severe lesions" for cattle, "abscesses" for pigs and "pronounced weight loss" for small ruminants. These reasons could constitute valuable syndromic indicators as they are unspecific clinical manifestations of a large range of animal diseases (as well as potential indicators of animal welfare). Differences were detected in the rate of carcass condemnation between cantons and between large and small slaughterhouses. A large percentage (>60% for all three animal categories) of slaughterhouses operating never reported a condemnation between 2007 and 2012, a potential indicator of widespread non-reporting bias in our database. CONCLUSIONS: The current system offers simultaneous coverage of cattle, pigs and small ruminants for the whole of Switzerland; and traceability of each condemnation to its farm of origin. The number of condemnations was significantly linked to the number of slaughters, meaning that the former should be always be offset by the later in analyses. Because this denominator is only communicated at the end of the month, condemnations may currently only be monitored on a monthly basis. Coupled with the lack of timeliness (30-60 days delay between condemnation and notification), this limits the use of the data for early-detection.

Cultural capital and smoking in young adults: applying new indicators to explore social inequalities in health behaviour.

BACKGROUND Associations between social status and health behaviours are well documented, but the mechanisms involved are less understood. Cultural capital theory may contribute to a better understanding by expanding the scope of inequality indicators to include individuals' knowledge, skills, beliefs and material goods to examine how these indicators impact individuals' health lifestyles. We explore the structure and applicability of a set of cultural capital indicators in the empirical exploration of smoking behaviour among young male adults. METHODS We analysed data from the Swiss Federal Survey of Adolescents (CH-X) 2010-11 panel of young Swiss males (n = 10 736). A set of nine theoretically relevant variables (including incorporated, institutionalized and objectified cultural capital) were investigated using exploratory factor analysis. Regression models were run to observe the association between factor scores and smoking outcomes. Outcome measures consisted of daily smoking status and the number of cigarettes smoked by daily smokers. RESULTS Cultural capital indicators aggregated in a three-factor solution representing 'health values', 'education and knowledge' and 'family resources'. Each factor score predicted the smoking outcomes. In young males, scoring low on health values, education and knowledge and family resources was associated with a higher risk of being a daily smoker and of smoking more cigarettes daily. CONCLUSION Cultural capital measures that include, but go beyond, educational attainment can improve prediction models of smoking in young male adults. New measures of cultural capital may thus contribute to our understanding of the social status-based resources that individuals can use towards health behaviours.