Monitoring human cytomegalovirus viral load in peripheral blood leukocytes of renal transplant recipients by a simple limiting dilution-PCR assay

To assess the clinical relevance of a semi-quantitative measurement of human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) DNA in renal transplant recipients within the typical clinical context of a developing country where virtually 100% of both receptors and donors are seropositive for this virus, we have undertaken HCMV DNA quantification using a simple, semi-quantitative, limiting dilution polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We evaluated this assay prospectively in 52 renal transplant patients from whom a total of 495 serial blood samples were collected. The samples scored HCMV positive by qualitative PCR had the levels of HCMV DNA determined by end-point dilution-PCR. All patients were HCMV DNA positive during the monitoring period and a diagnosis of symptomatic infection was made for 4 of 52 patients. In symptomatic patients the geometric mean of the highest level of HCMV DNAemia was 152,000 copies per 106 leukocytes, while for the asymptomatic group this value was 12,050. Symptomatic patients showed high, protracted HCMV DNA levels, whereas asymptomatic patients demonstrated intermittent low or moderate levels. Using a cut-off value of 100,000 copies per 106 leukocytes, the limiting dilution assay had sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 92%, a positive predictive value of 43% and a negative predictive value of 100% for HCMV disease. In this patient group, there was universal HCMV infection but relatively infrequent symptomatic HCMV disease. The two patient groups were readily distinguished by monitoring with the limiting dilution assay, an extremely simple technology immediately applicable in any clinical laboratory with PCR capability.

Working fluid selection and design of small-scale waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles

Demand for the use of energy systems, entailing high efficiency as well as availability to harness renewable energy sources, is a key issue in order to tackling the threat of global warming and saving natural resources. Organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology has been identified as one of the most promising technologies in recovering low-grade heat sources and in harnessing renewable energy sources that cannot be efficiently utilized by means of more conventional power systems. The ORC is based on the working principle of Rankine process, but an organic working fluid is adopted in the cycle instead of steam. This thesis presents numerical and experimental results of the study on the design of small-scale ORCs. Two main applications were selected for the thesis: waste heat re- covery from small-scale diesel engines concentrating on the utilization of the exhaust gas heat and waste heat recovery in large industrial-scale engine power plants considering the utilization of both the high and low temperature heat sources. The main objective of this work was to identify suitable working fluid candidates and to study the process and turbine design methods that can be applied when power plants based on the use of non-conventional working fluids are considered. The computational work included the use of thermodynamic analysis methods and turbine design methods that were based on the use of highly accurate fluid properties. In addition, the design and loss mechanisms in supersonic ORC turbines were studied by means of computational fluid dynamics. The results indicated that the design of ORC is highly influenced by the selection of the working fluid and cycle operational conditions. The results for the turbine designs in- dicated that the working fluid selection should not be based only on the thermodynamic analysis, but requires also considerations on the turbine design. The turbines tend to be fast rotating, entailing small blade heights at the turbine rotor inlet and highly supersonic flow in the turbine flow passages, especially when power systems with low power outputs are designed. The results indicated that the ORC is a potential solution in utilizing waste heat streams both at high and low temperatures and both in micro and larger scale appli- cations.

Ravinnepitoisen teollisen jäteveden tuotteistaminen

Tässä työssä selvitettiin ravinnepitoisen jäteveden väkevöintiä erityisesti ammoniumtypen ja orgaanisten happojen osalta. Konsentrointiin käytettiin pääasiassa käänteisosmoosia sekä haihdutusta, mutta myös nanosuodatusta tutkittiin. Jätevesi oli Honkajoki Oy:n lauhdevettä. Kirjallisuusosassa esiteltiin Honkajoki Oy:n toimintaa, membraanierotus-prosesseja, lihantuotannossa syntyvän jätteen ominaisuuksia sekä sen puhdistamista. Keskeisimmät suodatukset tehtiin DOW FILMTEC SW30HR -membraanilla, ja käytetty laitteisto oli DSS LabStak M20. Suodatuksia tehtiin eri pH-olosuhteissa typen ja orgaanisten happojen erottumisen kannalta optimaalisten olosuhteiden löytämiseksi. Lisäksi tutkittiin, kuinka puhtaaksi permeaatti voidaan saada uudelleensuodatuksen avulla. Työssä käytettiin myös haihdutusta lauhteen väkevöintiin. Ammoniumtypen konsentroituminen suodatuksissa oli tehokkainta pH:n ollessa 7 tai sen alle. Kaksivaiheisella suodatuksella permeaatin laatu alitti selvästi Karvianjokeen laskettaville jätevesille asetetut laatu- ja kuormitusrajat. Yhdistämällä suodatus- ja haihdutusprosessit, pystyttiin valmistamaan liuosta, jonka ammoniumtyppipitoisuus oli noin 7,6 %. Tuolloin suodatus tehtiin pH 7:ssä ja haihdutus pH 3:ssa rotavaporilla 26 mbar paineessa ja 50 °C lämpötilassa. Syöttöliuoksen tilavuuden alenema oli noin 65-kertainen. Haihdutuksessa muodostuneessa lauhteessa oli paljon orgaanisia happoja ja käytännössä ei lainkaan ammoniumtyppeä. Tuotejakeita saatiin siten kaksi kappaletta: ammoniumtyppijae ja orgaanisia happoja sisältävä jae.

Interfacial effects in organic solar cells

Solceller baserade på organiska halvledare erbjuder en möjlighet till storskalig och billig solenergiproduktion. Organiska halvledare har den fördelen att de är lösningsprocesserbara vilket gör att solceller och andra elektroniska komponenter baserade på dessa halvledare kan tillverkas vid låga temperaturer och med liten energiförbrukning. Nackdelen med dessa material är deras strukturella och energetiska oordning som leder till lägre effektivitet. För att organiska solceller ska kunna kommersialiseras krävs grundläggande insikter i de olika processer som begränsar effektiviteten. En stor del av forskningen om dessa processer har varit fokuserad kring egenskaperna av solcellens olika komponenter (de aktiva materialen) som sådana, medan gränsytorna mellan olika material har fått mindre uppmärksamhet. Gränsytor mellan olika material har distinkt olika egenskaper jämfört med ett rent material, och gränsytors olika egenskaper kan ha en väldigt stor inverkan på hur solcellerna fungerar. Syftet med denna avhandling är att klargöra några olika gränsyterelaterade effekter i organiska dioder och solceller. De gränsytor som behandlas är gränsytan mellan kontakten och det aktiva lagret (metall-organisk) och gränsytan mellan donor och acceptor (organisk-organisk). Resultaten visar att metall-organiska gränsytor måste designas noggrant för att begränsa förlust av effektivitet. En icke-idealisk kontakt leder till starkt reducerad effektivitet på grund av att elektronerna extraheras ineffektivt. Även till synes idealiska kontakter kan orsaka förluster genom spontan laddningsöverföring från metallen till det organiska lagret som effektivt sett minskar på den spänning som cellen kan alstra. Den organisk-organiska gränsytan påverkar hur mycket ström cellen kan alstra och beroende på gränsytans beskaffenhet kan de negativa rekombinationsprocesserna i materialet kontrolleras. ------------------------------------------------- Orgaanisille puolijohteille perustuvat aurinkokennot mahdollistavat suurimuotoisen ja edullisen aurinkoenergiatuotannon. Orgaanisten puolijohteiden etu on että ne voidaan liuottaa, jolloin aurinkokennot ja muut näille johteille perustuvat elektroniset komponentit voidaan valmistaa alhaisessa lämpötilassa kuluttaen vähän energiaa. Materiaalien huonona puolena on kuitenkin niiden rakenteellinen ja energeettinen epäjärjestys, jonka seurauksena niiden tehokkuus on huonompi. Orgaanisten aurinkokennojen kaupallistaminen edellyttää perustavanlaatuista ymmärystä tehokkuutta rajoittavista prosesseista. Aurinkokennotutkimus on pääosin keskittynyt aurinkokennon eri komponenttien (aktiivisten materiaalien) ominaisuuksiin, kun taas eri materiaalien rajapinnat ovat jääneet vähemmälle huomiolle. Eri materiaalien välisillä rajapinnoilla on huomattavan erilaisia ominaisuuksia verrattuna puhtaisiin materiaaleihin. Rajapintojen ominaisuudet voivat kuitenkin vaikuttaa merkittävästi aurinkokennojen toimintaan. Tämän väitöstutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selventää joitain rajapintoihin liittyviä toimintoja orgaanisissa diodeissa ja aurinkokennoissa. Käsiteltävät rajapinnat ovat rajapinta kontaktin ja aktiivisen kerroksen välillä (metallis-orgaaninen) ja rajapinta donorin ja akseptorin välillä (orgaanis-orgaaninen). Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että metallis-orgaaniset rajapinnat tulee suunnitella huolellisesti, jotta tehokkuuden alenemista voidaan rajoittaa. Mikäli kontakti ei ole ideaalisti suunniteltu, vähenee tehokkuus huomattavasti, mikä johtuu elektronien tehottomasta ekstrahoinnista. Jopa ideaalisilta vaikuttavat kontaktit voivat johtaa tehokkuuden alenemiseen, mikäli varaus siirtyy spontaanisti metallista orgaaniseen kerrokseen, sillä tämä alentaa jännitettä jonka kenno voi tuottaa. Kennon orgaanis-orgaaninen rajapinta vaikuttaa siihen, kuinka paljon virtaa kenno pystyy tuottamaan. Rajapinnan ominaisuuksista riippuen materiaalin rekombinaatio on hallittavissa.

Persistent organic pollutants in sediments and fish from Lake Victoria, Uganda

This thesis describes the occurrence and sources of selected persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) in the northern watershed of Lake Victoria. Sediments and fish were collected from three highly polluted embayments (i.e. Murchison Bay, Napoleon Gulf and Thurston Bay) of the lake. The analysis for PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs was done using a high resolution mass spectrometer coupled to a gas chromatograph (GC), and a GC equipped with an electron capture detector was used for HCHs. Total (Σ) PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs in sediments ranged from 3.19 to 478, 313 to 4325 and 60.8 to 179 pg g-1 dry weight (dw), respectively. The highest concentrations of pollutants were found at sites close to industrial areas and wastewater discharge points. The maximum concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, PBDEs and HCHs in fish muscle homogenates were 49, 779, 495 and 45,900 pg g-1 wet weight (ww), respectively. The concentrations of the pollutants in Nile perch (Lates niloticus) were significantly greater than those in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), possibly due to differences in trophic level and dietary feeding habits among fish species. World Health Organization-toxic equivalency quotient (WHO2005-TEQ) values in the sediments were up to 4.24 pg g-1 dw for PCDD/Fs and 0.55 pg TEQ g-1 dw for the 12 dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs). 23.1% of the samples from the Napoleon Gulf were above the interim sediment quality guideline value of 0.85 pg WHO-TEQ g-1 dw set by the Canadian Council for Ministers of the Environment. The WHO2005-TEQs in fish were 0.001-0.16 pg g-1 for PCDD/Fs and 0.001-0.31 pg g-1 ww for dl- PCBs. The TEQ values were within a permissible level of 3.5 pg g−1 ww recommended by the European Commission. Based on the Commission set TEQs and minimum risk level criteria formulated by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, the consumption of fish from Lake Victoria gives no indication of health risks associated to PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that anthropogenic activities such as agricultural straw open burning, medical waste incinerators and municipal solid waste combustors were the major sources of PCDD/Fs in the watershed of Lake Victoria. The ratios of α-/γ-HCH varied from 0.89 to 1.68 suggesting that the highest HCH residues mainly came from earlier usage and fresh γ-HCH (lindane). In the present study, the concentration of POPs in fish were not significantly related to those in sediments, and the biota sediment accumulation factor (BSAF) concept was found to be a poor predictor of the bioavailability and bioaccumulation of environmental pollutants.

Spectral analysis of the electromyograph of the erector spinae muscle before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test

The aim of the present study was to assess the spectral behavior of the erector spinae muscle during isometric contractions performed before and after a dynamic manual load-lifting test carried out by the trunk in order to determine the capacity of muscle to perform this task. Nine healthy female students participated in the experiment. Their average age, height, and body mass (± SD) were 20 ± 1 years, 1.6 ± 0.03 m, and 53 ± 4 kg, respectively. The development of muscle fatigue was assessed by spectral analysis (median frequency) and root mean square with time. The test consisted of repeated bending movements from the trunk, starting from a 45º angle of flexion, with the application of approximately 15, 25 and 50% of maximum individual load, to the stand up position. The protocol used proved to be more reliable with loads exceeding 50% of the maximum for the identification of muscle fatigue by electromyography as a function of time. Most of the volunteers showed an increase in root mean square versus time on both the right (N = 7) and the left (N = 6) side, indicating a tendency to become fatigued. With respect to the changes in median frequency of the electromyographic signal, the loads used in this study had no significant effect on either the right or the left side of the erector spinae muscle at this frequency, suggesting that a higher amount and percentage of loads would produce more substantial results in the study of isotonic contractions.

Response to an oral calcium load in nephrolithiasis patients with fluctuating parathyroid hormone and ionized calcium levels

the response to an oral calcium load test was assessed in 17 hypercalciuric nephrolithiasis patients who presented elevated parathyroid hormone (PTH) irrespective of the ionized calcium (sCa2+) levels. Blood samples were collected at baseline (0 min) and at 60 and 180 min after 1 g calcium load for serum PTH, total calcium, sCa2+, and 1.25(OH)2D3 determinations. According to the sCa2+ level at baseline, patients were classified as normocalcemic (N = 9) or hypercalcemic (N = 8). Six healthy subjects were also evaluated as controls. Bone mineral density was reduced in 14/17 patients. In the normocalcemic group, mean PTH levels at 0, 60 and 180 min (95 ± 76, 56 ± 40, 57 ± 45 pg/ml, respectively) did not differ from the hypercalcemic group (130 ± 75, 68 ± 35, 80 ± 33 pg/ml) but were significantly higher compared to healthy subjects despite a similar elevation in sCa2+ after 60 and 180 min vs baseline in all 3 groups. Mean total calcium and 1.25(OH)2D3 were similar in the 3 groups. Additionally, we observed that 5 of 9 normocalcemic patients presented a significantly higher concentration-time curve for serum PTH (AUC0',60',180') than the other 4 patients and the healthy subjects, suggesting a primary parathyroid dysfunction. These data suggest that the individual response to an oral calcium load test may be a valuable dynamic tool to disclose a subtle primary hyperparathyroidism in patients with high PTH and fluctuating sCa2+ levels, avoiding repeated measurements of both parameters.

Can organic and transgenic soy be used as a substitute for animal protein by rats?

We evaluated the protein quality of organic and transgenic soy fed to rats throughout life. Thirty female Wistar rats were divided into three groups (N = 10): organic soy group (OSG) receiving organic soy-based diet, genetically modified soy group (GMSG) receiving transgenic soy-based diet, and a control group (CG) receiving casein-based diet. All animals received water and isocaloric diet (10% protein), ad libitum for 291 days. After this, the weight of GMSG animals (290.9 ± 9.1 g) was significantly lower (P <= 0.04) than CG (323.2 ± 7.9 g). The weight of OSG (302.2 ± 8.7 g) was between that of the GMSG and the CG. Protein intake was similar for OSG (308.4 ± 6.8 g) and GMSG (301.5 ± 2.5 g), and significantly lower (P <= 0.0005) than the CG (358.4 ± 8.1 g). Growth rate was similar for all groups: OSG (0.80 ± 0.02 g), GMSG (0.81 ± 0.03 g) and CG (0.75 ± 0.02 g). In addition to providing a good protein intake and inducing less weight gain, both types of soy were utilized in a manner similar to that of casein, suggesting that the protein quality of soy is similar to that of the standard protein casein. The groups fed soy-based diet gained less weight, which may be considered to be beneficial for health. We conclude that organic and transgenic soy can be fed throughout life to rats in place of animal protein, because contain high quality protein and do not cause a marked increase in body weight.

Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) proviral DNA viral load among asymptomatic patients and patients with HTLV-I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

To evaluate the human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) proviral DNA load among asymptomatic HTLV-I-infected carriers and patients with HTLV-I-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP), real time PCR using TaqMan probes for the pol gene was performed in two million peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). The albumin gene was the internal genomic control and MT2 cells were used as positive control. The results are reported as copies/10,000 PBMC, and the detection limit was 10 copies. A total of 89 subjects (44 HAM/TSP and 45 healthy HTLV-I-infected carriers) followed up at the Institute of Infectious Diseases "Emilio Ribas" and in the Neurology Division of Hospital of Clínicas were studied. The asymptomatic HTLV-I-infected carriers had a median number of 271 copies (ranging from 5 to 4756 copies), whereas the HAM/TSP cases presented a median of 679 copies (5-5360 copies) in 10,000 PBMC. Thus, HAM/TSP patients presented a significantly higher HTLV-I proviral DNA load than healthy HTLV-I carriers (P = 0.005, one-way Mann-Whitney test). As observed in other persistent infections, proviral DNA load quantification may be an important tool for monotoring HTLV-I-infected subjects. However, long-term follow-up is necessary to validate this assay in the clinical setting.

Optical spectroscopy of organic material based on C60

The structure and optical properties of thin films based on C60 materials are studied. Reproducible vacuum method of thin fullerene films production with Cd impurity on Si, glass and mica surfaces is developed. Surface morphology of the films are investigated by AFM and SEM methods. The ab initio quantum - chemical calculations of the geometry, total energy and excited energy states of complex fullerene- cadmium telluride supramolecules are performed. Photoluminescence spectra of composite thin films based on C60 before and after X-ray irradiation were measured. The intensity of additional peaks is defined as the charge composition due to the type of substrate. These results are interpreted as an appearance of the dipole-allowed transitions in the fullerene excited singlet states spectrum cause of an interference with cadmium telluride. X-ray irradiated films were investigated, and additional peaks in photoluminescence spectra were detected. These peaks appear as a result of molecular complexes formation from C60CdTe mixture and dimerization of the films. Density functional B3LYP quantum-chemical calculations for C60CdTe, molecular complexes, (C60)2 and C120O dimers were performed to elucidate some experimental results.

Comparative effects of organic and inorganic mercury on in vivo dopamine release in freely moving rats

The present study was carried out in order to compare the effects of administration of organic (methylmercury, MeHg) and inorganic (mercury chloride, HgCl 2 ) forms of mercury on in vivo dopamine (DA) release from rat striatum. Experiments were performed in conscious and freely moving female adult Sprague-Dawley (230-280 g) rats using brain microdialysis coupled to HPLC with electrochemical detection. Perfusion of different concentrations of MeHg or HgCl 2 (2 µL/min for 1 h, N = 5-7/group) into the striatum produced significant increases in the levels of DA. Infusion of 40 µM, 400 µM, or 4 mM MeHg increased DA levels to 907 ± 31, 2324 ± 156, and 9032 ± 70% of basal levels, respectively. The same concentrations of HgCl 2 increased DA levels to 1240 ± 66, 2500 ± 424, and 2658 ± 337% of basal levels, respectively. These increases were associated with significant decreases in levels of dihydroxyphenylacetic acid and homovallinic acid. Intrastriatal administration of MeHg induced a sharp concentration-dependent increase in DA levels with a peak 30 min after injection, whereas HgCl 2 induced a gradual, lower (for 4 mM) and delayed increase in DA levels (75 min after the beginning of perfusion). Comparing the neurochemical profile of the two mercury derivatives to induce increases in DA levels, we observed that the time-course of these increases induced by both mercurials was different and the effect produced by HgCl 2 was not concentration-dependent (the effect was the same for the concentrations of 400 µM and 4 mM HgCl 2 ). These results indicate that HgCl 2 produces increases in extracellular DA levels by a mechanism differing from that of MeHg.

High HTLV-1 proviral load, a marker for HTLV-1 associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis, is also detected in patients with infective dermatitis associated with HTLV-1

Salvador (BA, Brazil) is an endemic area for human T-cell lymphotrophic virus type 1 (HTLV-1). The overall prevalence of HTLV-1 infection in the general population has been estimated to be 1.76%. HTLV-1 carriers may develop a variety of diseases such as adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma, HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP) and infective dermatitis associated with HTLV-1 (IDH). IDH is a chronic and severe form of childhood exudative and infective dermatitis involving mainly the scalp, neck and ears. It has recently been observed that 30% of patients with IDH develop juvenile HAM/TSP. The replication of HTLV-1 has been reported to be greater in adult HAM/TSP patients than in asymptomatic HTLV-1 carriers. In the current study, the proviral load of 28 children and adolescents with IDH not associated with HAM/TSP was determined and the results were compared to those obtained in 28 HTLV-1 adult carriers and 28 adult patients with HAM/TSP. The proviral load in IDH patients was similar to that of patients with HAM/TSP and much higher than that found in HTLV-1 carriers. The high levels of proviral load in IDH patients were not associated with age, duration of illness, duration of breast-feeding, or activity status of the skin disease. Since proviral load is associated with neurological disability, these data support the view that IDH patients are at high risk of developing HAM/TSP.

Enhanced production and organic solvent stability of a protease fromBrevibacillus laterosporus strain PAP04

A bacterial strain (PAP04) isolated from cattle farm soil was shown to produce an extracellular, solvent-stable protease. Sequence analysis using 16S rRNA showed that this strain was highly homologous (99%) to Brevibacillus laterosporus. Growth conditions that optimize protease production in this strain were determined as maltose (carbon source), skim milk (nitrogen source), pH 7.0, 40°C temperature, and 48 h incubation. Overall, conditions were optimized to yield a 5.91-fold higher production of protease compared to standard conditions. Furthermore, the stability of the enzyme in organic solvents was assessed by incubation for 2 weeks in solutions containing 50% concentration of various organic solvents. The enzyme retained activity in all tested solvents except ethanol; however, the protease activity was stimulated in benzene (74%) followed by acetone (63%) and chloroform (54.8%). In addition, the plate assay and zymography results also confirmed the stability of the PAP04 protease in various organic solvents. The organic solvent stability of this protease at high (50%) concentrations of solvents makes it an alternative catalyst for peptide synthesis in non-aqueous media.

Organic acid profile of commercial sour cassava starch

Organic acids are present in sour cassava starch ("polvilho azedo") and contribute with organoleptic and physical characteristics like aroma, flavor and the exclusive baking property, that differentiate this product from the native cassava starch. Samples of commercial sour cassava starch collected in South and Southeast Brazil were prepared for high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. The HPLC equipment had a Biorad Aminex HPX-87H column for organic acid analysis and a refractometric detector. Analysis was carried out with 0.005M sulfuric acid as mobile phase, 0.6ml/min flow rate and column temperature of 60° C. The acids quantified were lactic (0.036 to 0.813 g/100g), acetic (0 to 0.068 g/100g), propionic (0 to 0.013 g/100g) and butyric (0 to 0.057 g/100g), that are produced during the natural fermentation of cassava starch. Results showed large variation among samples, even within the same region. Some samples exhibited high acid levels, mainly lactic acid, but in these neither propionic nor butyric acids were detected. Absence of butyric acid was not expected because this is an important component of the sour cassava starch aroma, and the lack of this acid may suggest that such samples were produced without the natural fermentation step.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.