Forecasting the term structure when short-term rates are near zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short-term interest rates from October 2008. Out-of-sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium- to longer-term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near-zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson-Siegel models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of short-term detraining on postprandial metabolism, endothelial function, and inflammation in endurance-trained men:dissociation between changes in triglyceride metabolism and endothelial function

Endurance-trained athletes experience a low level of postprandial lipaemia, but this rapidly increases with detraining. We sought to determine whether detraining-induced changes to postprandial metabolism influenced endothelial function and inflammation. Eight endurance-trained men each undertook two oral fat tolerance tests [blood taken fasted and for 6 h following a high-fat test meal (80 g fat, 80 g carbohydrate)]: one during a period of their normal training (trained) and one after 1 wk of no exercise (detrained). Endothelial function in the cutaneous microcirculation was assessed using laser Doppler imaging with iontophoresis in the fasted state and 4 h postprandially during each test. Fasting plasma triglyceride (TG) concentrations increased by 35% with detraining (P = 0.002), as did postprandial plasma (by 53%, P = 0.002), chylomicron (by 68%, P = 0.02) and very low-density lipoprotein (by 51%, P = 0.005) TG concentrations. Endothelial function decreased postprandially in both the trained (by 17%, P = 0.03) and detrained (by 22%, P = 0.03) conditions but did not differ significantly between the trained and detrained conditions in either the fasted or the postprandial states. These results suggest that, although fat ingestion induces endothelial dysfunction, interventions that alter postprandial TG metabolism will not necessarily concomitantly influence endothelial function.

Maximization of a Linear Utility Function over the Set of the Housing Market Short-Term Equilibria

AMS subject classification: 90C05, 90A14.

Short-term stability in refractive status despite large fluctuations in glucose levels in diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2

Purpose: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Methods: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD), crystalline lens thickness (LT), axial length (AL) and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD) 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD) 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD) 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. Results: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p<0.0005) and between groups (p<0.0005). However, the refractive error components and ocular aberrations were not found to alter significantly over the day in either the diabetic patients or the control subjects (p>0.05). Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. Conclusion: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours) in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients. © 2012 Huntjens et al.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Everglades wetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus (P) and responsive to P enrichment. However, whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental P additions are rare in Everglades or other wetlands. We tested the response of the Everglades wetland ecosystem to continuous, low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and 30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate, 100 m flow-through flumes located in unenriched Everglades National Park. After the first six months of dosing, the concentration and standing stock of phosphorus increased in the surface water, periphyton, and flocculent detrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean = 149 μg P g−1), while the flocculent detrital layer stored most of the accumulated P (30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2, control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responses of P concentration and standing stock were observed primarily in the high dose (30 μg L−1 above ambient) treatment. In addition, the biomass and estimated P standing stock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30 and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterations in P concentration and standing stock occurred only at the upstream ends of the flumes nearest to the point source of added nutrient. The total amount of P stored by the ecosystem within the flume increased with P dosing, although the ecosystem in the flumes retained only a small proportion of the P added over the first six months. These results indicate that oligotrophic Everglades wetlands respond rapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment, and the initial response is most noticeable in the periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Ecosystem Structure and Function Still Altered Two Decades After Short-Term Fertilization of a Seagrass Meadow

An oligotrophic phosphorus (P) limited seagrass ecosystem in Florida Bay was experimentally fertilized in a unique way. Perches were installed to encourage seabirds to roost and deliver an external source of nutrients via defecation. Two treatments were examined: (1) a chronic 23-year fertilization and (2) an earlier 28-month fertilization that was discontinued when the chronic treatment was initiated. Because of the low mobility of P in carbonate sediments, we hypothesized long-term changes to ecosystem structure and function in both treatments. Structural changes in the chronic treatment included a shift in the dominant seagrass species from Thalassia testudinum to Halodule wrightii, large increases in epiphytic biomass and sediment chlorophyll-a, and a decline in species richness. Functional changes included increased benthic metabolism and quantum efficiency. Initial changes in the 28-month fertilization were similar, but after 23 years of nutrient depuration T. testudinum has reestablished itself as the dominant species. However, P remains elevated in the sediment and H. wrightii has maintained a presence. Functionally the discontinued treatment remains altered. Biomass exceeds that in the chronic treatment and indices of productivity, elevated relative to control, are not different from the chronic fertilization. Cessation of nutrient loading has resulted in a superficial return to the pre-disturbance character of the community, but due to the nature of P cycles functional changes persist.

Short-term changes in phosphorus storage in an oligotrophic Everglades wetland ecosystem receiving experimental nutrient enrichment

Natural, unenriched Evergladeswetlands are known to be limited by phosphorus(P) and responsive to P enrichment. However,whole-ecosystem evaluations of experimental Padditions are rare in Everglades or otherwetlands. We tested the response of theEverglades wetland ecosystem to continuous,low-level additions of P (0, 5, 15, and30 μg L−1 above ambient) in replicate,100 m flow-through flumes located in unenrichedEverglades National Park. After the first sixmonths of dosing, the concentration andstanding stock of phosphorus increased in thesurface water, periphyton, and flocculentdetrital layer, but not in the soil or macrophytes. Of the ecosystem components measured, total P concentration increased the most in the floating periphyton mat (30 μg L−1: mean = 1916 μg P g−1, control: mean =149 μg P g−1), while the flocculentdetrital layer stored most of the accumulated P(30 μg L−1: mean = 1.732 g P m−2,control: mean = 0.769 g P m−2). Significant short-term responsesof P concentration and standing stock wereobserved primarily in the high dose (30 μgL−1 above ambient) treatment. Inaddition, the biomass and estimated P standingstock of aquatic consumers increased in the 30and 5 μg L−1 treatments. Alterationsin P concentration and standing stock occurredonly at the upstream ends of the flumes nearestto the point source of added nutrient. Thetotal amount of P stored by the ecosystemwithin the flume increased with P dosing,although the ecosystem in the flumes retainedonly a small proportion of the P added over thefirst six months. These results indicate thatoligotrophic Everglades wetlands respondrapidly to short-term, low-level P enrichment,and the initial response is most noticeable inthe periphyton and flocculent detrital layer.

Short-term temporal and spatial variations in physical, optical and biogeochemical parameters in June of 2013 in Alfacs Bay (NW Mediterranean)

With the aim of analyzing the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions at high temporal and spatial resolution in the complex estuarine waters of Alfacs Bay, a beam attenuation-based approach was used as optical proxy of different biogeochemical variables. Thus, the dataset contains the attenuation proxies as well as laboratory results from the analysis of water samples, which were used to validate our approach. In addition, the major physical forcing in the Bay was also measured.

Short-term impact of soybean management on ammonia oxidizers in a Brazilian savanna under restoration as revealed by coupling different techniques

Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful to Mr. Fabiano Bielefeld Nardotto, owner of the Tabapuã dos Pireneus farm, for allowing our free movement around the farm and collection of soil samples, as well as providing information about soybean cultivation. The authors also thank Dr. Plínio de Camargo, who performed the isotopic analysis in the CENA laboratory at the University of São Paulo (USP). This work was supported by grants from the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq), Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES), and Foundation for Research Support of Distrito Federal (FAP-DF).

The effects of graded levels of calorie restriction : V. Impact of short term calorie and protein restriction on physical activity in the C57BL/6 mouse

Peer reviewed

The cardioprotective effect of a short-term aerobic exercise program and the mitochondrial permeability transition pore of the Rat

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

The cardioprotective effect of a short-term aerobic exercise program and the mitochondrial permeability transition pore of the Rat

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Short-term metabolic and growth responses of the cold-water coral lophelia pertusa to ocean acidification

Cold-water corals are amongst the most three-dimensionally complex deep-sea habitats known and are associated with high local biodiversity. Despite their importance as ecosystem engineers, little is known about how these organisms will respond to projected ocean acidification. Since preindustrial times, average ocean pH has already decreased from 8.2 to ~ 8.1. Predicted CO2 emissions will decrease this by up to another 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. This decrease in pH may have a wide range of impacts upon marine life, and in particular upon calcifiers such as cold-water corals. Lophelia pertusa is the most widespread cold-water coral (CWC) species, frequently found in the North Atlantic. Data here relate to a short term data set (21 days) on metabolism and net calcification rates of freshly collected L. pertusa from Mingulay Reef Complex, Scotland. These data from freshly collected L. pertusa from the Mingulay Reef Complex will help define the impact of ocean acidification upon the growth, physiology and structural integrity of this key reef framework forming species.