Time-varying price discovery in the eighteenth century: empirical evidence from the London and Amsterdam stock markets

This paper examines the time-varying nature of price discovery in eighteenth century cross-listed stocks. Specifically, we investigate how quickly news is reflected in prices for two of the great moneyed com- panies, the Bank of England and the East India Company, over the period 1723 to 1794. These British companies were cross-listed on the London and Amsterdam stock exchange and news between the capitals flowed mainly via the use of boats that transported mail. We examine in detail the historical context sur- rounding the defining events of the period, and use these as a guide to how the data should be analysed. We show that both trading venues contributed to price discovery, and although the London venue was more important for these stocks, its importance varies over time.

Low-frequency volatility of real estate securities in relation to macroeconomic risk

Real estate securities have a number of distinct characteristics that differentiate them from stocks generally. Key amongst them is that under-pinning the firms are both real as well as investment assets. The connections between the underlying macro-economy and listed real estate firms is therefore clearly demonstrated and of heightened importance. To consider the linkages with the underlying macro-economic fundamentals we extract the ‘low-frequency’ volatility component from aggregate volatility shocks in 11 international markets over the 1990-2014 period. This is achieved using Engle and Rangel’s (2008) Spline-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (Spline-GARCH) model. The estimated low-frequency volatility is then examined together with low-frequency macro data in a fixed-effect pooled regression framework. The analysis reveals that the low-frequency volatility of real estate securities has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies examined. These include interest rates, inflation, GDP and foreign exchange rates.

The hidden organic carbon in deep mineral soils

Aims Current estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) are based largely on surficial measurements to depths of 0.3 to 1 m. Many of the world’s soils greatly exceed 1 m depth and there are numerous reports of biological activity to depths of many metres. Although SOC storage to depths of up to 8 m has been previously reported, the extent to which SOC is stored at deeper depths in soil profiles is currently unknown. This paper aims to provide the first detailed analysis of these previously unreported stores of SOC. Methods Soils from five sites in the deeply weathered regolith in the Yilgarn Craton of south-western Australia were sampled and analysed for total organic carbon by combustion chromatography. These soils ranged between 5 and 38 m (mean 21 m) depth to bedrock and had been either recently reforested with Pinus pinaster or were under agriculture. Sites had a mean annual rainfall of between 399 and 583 mm yr−1. Results The mean SOC concentration across all sites was 2.30 ± 0.26 % (s.e.), 0.41 ± 0.05 % and 0.23 ± 0.04 % in the surface 0.1, 0.1–0.5 and 0.5 to 1.0 m increments, respectively. The mean value between 1 and 5 m was 0.12 ± 0.01 %, whereas between 5 and 35 m the values decreased from 0.04 ± 0.002 % to 0.03 ± 0.003 %. Mean SOC mass densities for each of the five locations varied from 21.8–37.5 kg C m−2, and were in toto two to five times greater than would be reported with sampling to a depth of 0.5 m. Conclusions This finding may have major implications for estimates of global carbon storage and modelling of the potential global impacts of climate change and land-use change on carbon cycles. The paper demonstrates the need for a reassessment of the current arbitrary shallow soil sampling depths for assessing carbon stocks, a revision of global SOC estimates and elucidation of the composition and fate of deep carbon in response to land use and climate change

Marine protected areas in artisanal fisheries: a spatial bio-economic model based on observations in Costa Rica and Tanzania

In many lower-income countries, the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) involves significant opportunity costs for artisanal fishers, reflected in changes in how they allocate their labor in response to the MPA. The resource economics literature rarely addresses such labor allocation decisions of artisanal fishers and how, in turn, these contribute to the impact of MPAs on fish stocks, yield, and income. This paper develops a spatial bio-economic model of a fishery adjacent to a village of people who allocate their labor between fishing and on-shore wage opportunities to establish a spatial Nash equilibrium at a steady state fish stock in response to various locations for no-take zone MPAs and managed access MPAs. Villagers’ fishing location decisions are based on distance costs, fishing returns, and wages. Here, the MPA location determines its impact on fish stocks, fish yield, and villager income due to distance costs, congestion, and fish dispersal. Incorporating wage labor opportunities into the framework allows examination of the MPA’s impact on rural incomes, with results determining that win-wins between yield and stocks occur in very different MPA locations than do win-wins between income and stocks. Similarly, villagers in a high-wage setting face a lower burden from MPAs than do those in low-wage settings. Motivated by issues of central importance in Tanzania and Costa Rica, we impose various policies on this fishery – location specific no-take zones, increasing on-shore wages, and restricting MPA access to a subset of villagers – to analyze the impact of an MPA on fish stocks and rural incomes in such settings.

Greenhouse gas emission scenario modeling for cities using the PURGE model

Cities globally are in the midst of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. After the vital step of emissions quantification, strategies must be developed to detail how emissions reductions targets will be achieved. The Pathways to Urban Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions (PURGE) model allows the estimation of emissions from four pertinent urban sectors: electricity generation, buildings, private transportation, and waste. Additionally, the carbon storage from urban and regional forests is modeled. An emissions scenario is examined for a case study of the greater Toronto, Ontario, Canada, area using data on current technology stocks and government projections for stock change. The scenario presented suggests that even with some aggressive targets for technological adoption (especially in the transportation sector), it will be difficult to achieve the less ambitious 2050 emissions reduction goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is largely attributable to the long life of the building stock and limitations of current retrofit practices. Additionally, demand reduction (through transportation mode shifting and building occupant behavior) will be an important component of future emissions cuts.

OzFACE: the Australian savanna free air CO2 enrichment facility and its relevance to carbon-cycling issues in a tropical savanna

A free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) facility has recently been constructed in a tropical savanna in north-eastern Queensland, Australia. The system has a novel and cost-effective design and uses an industrial source of pure CO2 piped directly to the site. We describe the design details of this facility and assess the likely contribution it will make towards advancing our understanding of the direct impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on savannas. These include addressing uncertainties about future shifts in the tree–grass balance and associated changes in carbon stocks, responses of C4 grasses in dry tropical environments, potential sequestration of soil carbon, and the modifications of CO2 responses by moisture and nutrient interactions. Tropical regions have been poorly represented in climate change research, and the work at the OzFACE facility will complement existing and ongoing FACE studies at temperate latitudes.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.

Legacy effects of grassland management on soil carbon to depth

The importance of managing land to optimise carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation is widely recognised, with grasslands being identified as having the potential to sequester additional carbon. However, most soil carbon inventories only consider surface soils, and most large scale surveys group ecosystems into broad habitats without considering management intensity. Consequently, little is known about the quantity of deep soil carbon and its sensitivity to management. From a nationwide survey of grassland soils to 1 m depth, we show that carbon in grasslands soils is vulnerable to management and that these management effects can be detected to considerable depth down the soil profile, albeit at decreasing significance with depth. Carbon concentrations in soil decreased as management intensity increased, but greatest soil carbon stocks (accounting for bulk density differences), were at intermediate levels of management. Our study also highlights the considerable amounts of carbon in sub-surface soil below 30cm, which is missed by standard carbon inventories. We estimate grassland soil carbon in Great Britain to be 2097 Tg C to a depth of 1 m, with ~60% of this carbon being below 30cm. Total stocks of soil carbon (t ha-1) to 1 m depth were 10.7% greater at intermediate relative to intensive management, which equates to 10.1 t ha-1 in surface soils (0-30 cm), and 13.7 t ha-1 in soils from 30-100 cm depth. Our findings highlight the existence of substantial carbon stocks at depth in grassland soils that are sensitive to management. This is of high relevance globally, given the extent of land cover and large stocks of carbon held in temperate managed grasslands. Our findings have implications for the future management of grasslands for carbon storage and climate mitigation, and for global carbon models which do not currently account for changes in soil carbon to depth with management.

Institutional investors: arbitrageurs or rational trend chasers?

This paper studies the relationship between institutional investor holdings and stock misvaluation in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010. I find that institutional investors overweigh overvalued and underweigh undervalued stocks in their portfolio, taking the market portfolio as a benchmark. Cross-sectionally, institutional investors hold more overvalued stocks than undervalued stocks. The time-series studies also show that institutional ownership of overvalued portfolios increases as the portfolios' degree of overvaluation. As an investment strategy, institutional investors' ride of stock misvaluation is neither driven by the fund flows from individual investors into institutions, nor industry-specific. Consistent with the agency problem explanation, investment companies and independent investment advisors have a higher tendency to ride stock misvaluation than other institutions. There is weak evidence that institutional investors make positive profit by riding stock misvaluation. My findings challenge the models that view individual investors as noise traders and disregard the role of institutional investors in stock market misvaluation.

Commodity risks and the cross-section of equity returns

The article examines whether commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of global equity returns. We employ a long-only equally-weighted portfolio of commodity futures and a term structure portfolio that captures phases of backwardation and contango as mimicking portfolios for commodity risk. We find that equity-sorted portfolios with greater sensitivities to the excess returns of the backwardation and contango portfolio command higher average excess returns, suggesting that when measured appropriately, commodity risk is pervasive in stocks. Our conclusions are robust to the addition to the pricing model of financial, macroeconomic and business cycle-based risk factors.

Comparative Genetic Diversity of Wild and Captive Populations of the Bare-Faced Curassow (Crax fasciolata) Based on Cross-Species Microsatellite Markers: Implications for Conservation and Management

The bare-faced curassow (Crax fasciolata) is a large Neotropical bird that suffers anthropogenic pressure across much of its range. A captive population is maintained for conservation management, although there has been no genetic screening of stocks. Based on the six microsatellite markers developed for Crax globulosa, the genetic variability of C. fasciolata and possible differences between a wild and a captive population were investigated. Only three loci were polymorphic, with a total of 27 alleles. More than half of these alleles were private to the wild (n = 8) or captive (n = 7) populations. Significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were restricted to the captive population. Despite the number of private alleles, genetic drift has probably promoted differentiation between populations. Our results indicate that wild C. fasciolata populations are genetically impoverished and structured, but species-specific microsatellite markers will be necessary for a more reliable assessment of the species` genetic diversity.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE REINTRODUCTION AND RECOVERY OF THE ALAGOAS CURASSOW MITU MITU (LINNAEUS, 1766) FROM EXTINCTION USING A POTENTIALLY HYBRID CAPTIVE STOCK

The Alagoas Curassow Mitu mitu is considered extinct in the wild. Since 1979, two females and a male caught in the wild have bred successfully in captivity, and, in 1990, hybridizations between M. mitu and Razor-billed Mitu M. tuberosum were performed. By June 2008, there were around 130 living birds in two different aviaries. We sequenced two regions of the mitochondrial DNA of both captive stocks of Alagoas Curassows. We unequivocally identified hybrids that have haplotype typical of M. tuberosum. However, unless the original studbook can be recovered there is no confident way to discriminate ""pure"" M. mitu birds for breeding and reintroduction purposes. Allied with morphological data gathered in an independent study, we suggest that conservation actions need to focus on specimens with diagnostic phenotypic characters of M. mitu, and avoid birds with mitochondria, genetic contribution of M. tuberosum. Although we have detected low levels of genetic variability among captive birds, the steady increase of the captive population suggests that inbreeding depression and hybridization are not a reproductive hindrance. Reintroduction of some of these potential hybrid birds in the original area of occurrence of the Alagoas Curassow may be the only hope to fill in the ecological niche left vacant. An educational program involving local communities to conserve future reintroduction of curassows and their restored habitat is highly recommended. Accepted 12 November 2009.

Phylogenetic analysis of Trypanosoma vivax supports the separation of South American/West African from East African isolates and a new T-vivax-like genotype infecting a nyala antelope from Mozambique

In this study, we addressed the phylogenetic and taxonomic relationships of Trypanosoma vivax and related trypanosomes nested in the subgenus Duttonella through combined morphological and phylogeographical analyses. We previously demonstrated that the clade T. vivax harbours a homogeneous clade comprising West African/South American isolates and the heterogeneous East African isolates. Herein we characterized a trypanosome isolated from a nyala antelope (Tragelaphus angasi) wild-caught in Mozambique (East Africa) and diagnosed as T. vivax-like based on biological, morphological and molecular data. Phylogenetic relationships, phylogeographical patterns and estimates of genetic divergence were based on SSU and ITS rDNA sequences of T. vivax from Brazil and Venezuela (South America), Nigeria (West Africa), and from T. vivax-like trypanosomes from Mozambique, Kenya and Tanzania (East Africa). Despite being well-supported within the T. vivax clade, the nyala trypanosome was highly divergent from all other T. vivax and T. vivax-like trypanosomes, even those from East Africa. Considering its host origin, morphological features, behaviour in experimentally infected goats, phylogenetic placement, and genetic divergence this isolate represents a new genotype of trypanosome closely phylogenetically related to T. vivax. This study corroborated the high complexity and the existence of distinct genotypes yet undescribed within the subgenus Duttonella.

A coupling cutting stock-lot sizing problem in the paper industry

An important production programming problem arises in paper industries coupling multiple machine scheduling with cutting stocks. Concerning machine scheduling: how can the production of the quantity of large rolls of paper of different types be determined. These rolls are cut to meet demand of items. Scheduling that minimizes setups and production costs may produce rolls which may increase waste in the cutting process. On the other hand, the best number of rolls in the point of view of minimizing waste may lead to high setup costs. In this paper, coupled modeling and heuristic methods are proposed. Computational experiments are presented.

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil`s ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO(2) emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane`s juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane`s bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes Of CO(2) per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity`s potential, plus the capture Of CO(2) released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO(2)/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO(2)/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg Of CO(2) per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.