Variance Reduction in Analytical Chemistry : New Numerical Methods in Chemometrics and Molecular Simulation

This thesis is based on five papers addressing variance reduction in different ways. The papers have in common that they all present new numerical methods. Paper I investigates quantitative structure-retention relationships from an image processing perspective, using an artificial neural network to preprocess three-dimensional structural descriptions of the studied steroid molecules. Paper II presents a new method for computing free energies. Free energy is the quantity that determines chemical equilibria and partition coefficients. The proposed method may be used for estimating, e.g., chromatographic retention without performing experiments. Two papers (III and IV) deal with correcting deviations from bilinearity by so-called peak alignment. Bilinearity is a theoretical assumption about the distribution of instrumental data that is often violated by measured data. Deviations from bilinearity lead to increased variance, both in the data and in inferences from the data, unless invariance to the deviations is built into the model, e.g., by the use of the method proposed in paper III and extended in paper IV. Paper V addresses a generic problem in classification; namely, how to measure the goodness of different data representations, so that the best classifier may be constructed. Variance reduction is one of the pillars on which analytical chemistry rests. This thesis considers two aspects on variance reduction: before and after experiments are performed. Before experimenting, theoretical predictions of experimental outcomes may be used to direct which experiments to perform, and how to perform them (papers I and II). After experiments are performed, the variance of inferences from the measured data are affected by the method of data analysis (papers III-V).

Numerical Model for the Dynamic Analysis of Pile Foundations

Programa de doctorado: Sistemas Inteligentes y Aplicaciones Numéricas en Ingeniería Instituto Universitario (SIANI)

Generation of the Cape Ghir upwelling filament: a numerical study

[EN] Filaments are narrow, shallow structures of cool water originating from the coast. They are typical features of the four main eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS). In spite of their significant biological and chemical roles, through the offshore exportation of nutrient-rich waters, the physical processes that generate them are still not completely understood. This paper is a process-oriented study of filament generation mechanisms. Our goal is twofold: firstly, to obtain a numerical solution able to well represent the characteristics of the filament off Cape Ghir (30°38'N, northwestern Africa) in the Canary EBUS and secondly, to explain its formation by a simple mechanism based on the balance of potential vorticity. The first goal is achieved by the use of the ROMS model (Regional Ocean Modeling System) in embedded domains around Cape Ghir, with a horizontal resolution going up to 1.5 km for the finest domain. The latter gets its initial and boundary conditions from a parent solution and is forced by climatological, high-resolution atmospheric fields. The modeled filaments display spatial, temporal and physical characteristics in agreement with the available in situ and satellite observations. This model solution is used as a reference to compare the results with a set of process-oriented experiments. These experiments allow us to reach the second objective. Their respective solution serves to highlight the contribution of various processes in the filament generation. Since the study is focused on general processes present under climatological forcing conditions, inter-annual forcing is not necessary. The underlying idea for the filament generation is the balance of potential vorticity in the Canary EBUS: the upwelling jet is characterized by negative relative vorticity and flows southward along a narrow band of uniform potential vorticity. In the vicinity of the cape, an injection of relative vorticity induced by the wind breaks the existing vorticity balance. The upwelling jet is prevented from continuing its way southward and has to turn offshore to follow lines of equal potential vorticity. The model results highlight the essential role of wind, associated with the particular topography (coastline and bottom) around the cape. The mechanism presented here is general and thus can be applied to other EBUS.

Analysis of Mediterranean ocean variability using five numerical simulations

Programa de oceanografía

Towards the construction of a validated numerical system to study the mesoscale dynamics of the North East Atlantic (2003-2006)

Máster en Oceanografía

Validation of a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic Ocean with ARGO Data

Degree in Marine Sciences. Faculty of Marine Sciences, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. Institut de Ciències del Mar, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas

Assimilation of Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite data in a regional numerical weather prediction model using a one-dimensional variational approach

The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.

Metodi numerici per lo studio di centri di lavoro ad alta velocità

A Machining Centre is nowadays a complex mechanical, electronic, electrical system that needs integrated design capabilities which very often require a high time-consuming effort. Numerical techniques for designing and dimensioning the machine structure and components usually requires different knowledge according to the system that have to be designed. This Ph. D Thesis is related about the efforts of the Authors to develop a system that allows to perform the complete project of a new machine optimized in its dynamic behaviour. An integration of the different systems developed, each of which respond to specific necessities of designer, is here presented. In particular a dynamic analysis system, based on a lumped mass approach, that rapidly allows to setup the drives of the machine and an Integrated Dynamic Simulation System, based on a FEM approach, that permit a dynamic optimization, are shown. A multilevel Data Base, and an operator interface module provide to complete the designing platform. The proposed approach represents a significant step toward the virtual machining for the prediction of the quality of the worked surface.

An adaptive solar radiation numerical model

[EN]A numerical model for the evaluation of solar radiation in different locations is presented. The solar radiation model is implemented taking into account the terrain surface using two-dimensional adaptive meshes of triangles that are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The selected methodology defines the terrain characteristics with a minimum number of points so that the computational cost is reduced for a given accuracy. The model can be used in atmospheric sciences as well as in other fields such as electrical engineering, since it allows the user to find the optimal location for maximum power generation in photovoltaic or solar thermal power plants...

Two-dimensional numerical approach for the vibration isolation analysis on thin walled wave barriers in poroelastic soils.

[EN]This paper is concerned with the vibration isolation efficiency analysis of total or partially buried thin walled wave barriers in poroelastic soils. A two-dimensional time harmonic model that treats soils and structures in a direct way by combining appropriately the conventional Boundary Element Method (BEM), the Dual BEM (DBEM) and the Finite Element Method es developed to this aim.

Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.