Uncertainties regarding dengue modeling in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue fever is currently the most important arthropod-borne viral disease in Brazil. Mathematical modeling of disease dynamics is a very useful tool for the evaluation of control measures. To be used in decision-making, however, a mathematical model must be carefully parameterized and validated with epidemiological and entomological data. In this work, we developed a simple dengue model to answer three questions: (i) which parameters are worth pursuing in the field in order to develop a dengue transmission model for Brazilian cities; (ii) how vector density spatial heterogeneity influences control efforts; (iii) with a degree of uncertainty, what is the invasion potential of dengue virus type 4 (DEN-4) in Rio de Janeiro city. Our model consists of an expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) that incorporates vector density spatial heterogeneity. To deal with the uncertainty regarding parameter values, we parameterized the model using a priori probability density functions covering a range of plausible values for each parameter. Using the Latin Hypercube Sampling procedure, values for the parameters were generated. We conclude that, even in the presence of vector spatial heterogeneity, the two most important entomological parameters to be estimated in the field are the mortality rate and the extrinsic incubation period. The spatial heterogeneity of the vector population increases the risk of epidemics and makes the control strategies more complex. At last, we conclude that Rio de Janeiro is at risk of a DEN-4 invasion. Finally, we stress the point that epidemiologists, mathematicians, and entomologists need to interact more to find better approaches to the measuring and interpretation of the transmission dynamics of arthropod-borne diseases.

Playing Second Fiddle: Expert Advice and Decision-Making in Switzerland

This thesis concerns the role of scientific expertise in the decision-making process at the Swiss federal level of government. It aims to understand how institutional and issue-specific factors influence three things: the distribution of access to scientific expertise, its valuation by participants in policy for- mulation, and the consequence(s) its mobilization has on policy politics and design. The theoretical framework developed builds on the assumption that scientific expertise is a strategic resource. In order to effectively mobilize this resource, actors require financial and organizational resources, as well as the conviction that it can advance their instrumental interests within a particular action situation. Institutions of the political system allocate these financial and organizational resources, influence the supply of scientific expertise, and help shape the venue of its deployment. Issue structures, in turn, condition both interaction configurations and the way in which these are anticipated by actors. This affects the perceived utility of expertise mobilization, mediating its consequences. The findings of this study show that the ability to access and control scientific expertise is strongly concentrated in the hands of the federal administration. Civil society actors have weak capacities to mobilize it, and the autonomy of institutionalized advisory bodies is limited. Moreover, the production of scientific expertise is undergoing a process of professionalization which strengthens the position of the federal administration as the (main) mandating agent. Despite increased political polarization and less inclu- sive decision-making, scientific expertise remains anchored in the policy subsystem, rather than being used to legitimate policy through appeals to the wider population. Finally, the structure of a policy problem matters both for expertise mobilization and for the latter's impact on the policy process, be- cause it conditions conflict structures and their anticipation. Structured problems result in a greater overlap between the principal of expertise mobilization and its intended audience, thereby increasing the chance that expertise shapes policy design. Conversely, less structured problems, especially those that involve conflicts about values and goals, reduce the impact of expertise.

Smoking causes mouth cancer, PHA warns

Mouth cancer awareness week begins on the 13 - 20 November. With this in mind the Public Health Agency is urging everyone to be aware of the signs and symptoms of mouth cancer and is encouraging all smokers thinking about stopping smoking to make the decision to stop today.In Northern Ireland 195 people were diagnosed with mouth cancer in 2009. The disease causes one death every five hours in the UK and yet it is one of the least well-known cancers. Smoking and excess alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of developing mouth cancer, which can occur in or on any part of the mouth, tongue, lips, neck and throat. In its very early stages, mouth cancer can be easy to ignore. Most people with mouth cancer have no early symptoms at all, but others may have:an ulcer in the mouth or on the lip that won't heal; constant pain or soreness; red or white patches in the mouth;a lump on the lip, tongue or in the neck; bad breath; unexplained bleeding in the mouth; numbness in the mouth; loose teeth.The earlier the disease is caught, the better. Survival rates rise to 90 per cent if the cancer is treated before it has spread. Gerry Bleakney, Head of Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement, PHA, said: "Certain lifestyle choices can increase an individual's risk of developing mouth cancer. Tobacco is considered to be the main cause of mouth cancer, with three in four cases being linked to smoking. Excess alcohol consumption is also a known factor, with those who both smoke and drink excessively being up 30 times more likely to be at risk. "Mouth cancer and the treatment required can be traumatic for the patient as this may affect functions such as speech, chewing and swallowing. The positive news is that stopping smoking is associated with a rapid reduction in the risk of oral cancers. Regular trips to the dentist are also a must because half of all mouth cancer cases are detected by dentists."I would encourage everyone who is thinking about quitting to log on to our Want 2 Stop website www.want2stop.info and order a 'Quit Kit' free of charge. Alternatively contact the Smokers' Helpline on 0808 812 8008. "Health Minister Edwin Poots said: "Smoking is the single greatest cause of preventable illness and premature death in Northern Ireland.It is a major risk factor for oral cancer, as well as coronary heart disease, strokes and other diseases of the circulatory system. Approximately 2,300 people die each year in Northern Ireland from smoking related illnesses. Quitting smoking is the single most effective step people can take to improve their long term health."A key objective of the Department's new ten-year tobacco control strategy, due to be published next month,is to prevent people from starting to smoke. Funding provided by the Department for smoking cessation services has resulted in around 650 such services being made available in Northern Ireland in a range of settings, including pharmacies, GP surgeries and community centres. These services have helped almost 80,000 smokers to set a quit date between 2008/09 and 2010/11."The Minister added: "It is also important for people to look after their oral health by regularly attending the dentist for check-ups, as any problems can be picked up and treated at an early stage."

Accepting Methadone: The Evolution of an Institutional Decision

This is a study of organisational decision making among senior civil servants in the Department of Health (DOH) in relation to the acceptance of methadone maintenance as a valid treatment modality for opiate misuse in Ireland. A qualitative strategy was adopted with an emergent design and grounded theory perspective. The data was collected using a naturalistic mode of inquiry and comprised of documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews. The aspects of decision making chosen for the study were: 1. Identifying the actors involved considering the heretofore dominant 'corporation sole' culture of the Irish public administration. 2. Identifying two (out of the myriad) processes involved in decision making. 3. Identifying what theoretical model(s) of decision making most closely approximates to this case. The findings were as follows: 1. Actors involved at all levels of the decision making could be identified, albeit with some difficulty. This as a result of the strategic management initiative. Previously, it may not have been possible. Stages or phases could not, in this case, be readily identified though limitations of this study may prove significant. 2. Both the processes selected in decision-making in this case were confirmed. Personal and professional support provided by peers and seniors is crucial to decision making. Decision making does occur within networks: these tend to be those that are formally appointed rather than informal ones. 3. The model closest to that of this case was that of incremental decision making within network settings.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Women and Dementia - Not forgotten ILC-UK

ILC-UK recently (31 Aug 2011)��published a report calling for a gendered approach and response to dementia at the national and international level. The report posits that women will disproportionately bear the burden of dementia in terms of numbers, but also impact in the coming years. The ‘feminization of ageing’ is a widely recognised trend and yet hitherto a comprehensive approach to the impact of dementia on women remains largely under explored.Invariably women and men as they age, share many of the same fundamental needs. Yet, as is acknowledged in many parts of the world, older women are particularly vulnerable and are subject to prolonged inequalities experienced since childhood, for example, lower levels of education and a greater risk of poverty. This report assumes a life course approach to the challenge of dementia and women, arguing from a global perspective that women face a ‘triple jeopardy’ as a result of the associated stigma attached to their age, gender and decline in cognitive functions. ILC-UK make a number of recommendations for improving outcomes and interventions for women, which include: 1. Dementia health policies and programmes should incorporate a gender dimension in their design, delivery and evaluation2. Gender should be included as a key health determinant in the promotion and disease prevention of dementia3. Dementia research at the regional, national and international level needs to be disaggregated by gender and age4. Women and men should be equally represented and involved at the micro and macro level of decision-making with regard to the development of health and social care policies and resource allocation as they pertain to dementia5. There is a need for greater interdisciplinary research incorporating the biological and social models of health for men and women to improve health interventions and outcomesDownload the full pdf report here��

Analysis of angiotensin II- and ACTH-driven mineralocorticoid functions and omental adiposity in a non-genetic, hyperadipose female rat phenotype

The hypothalamic damage induced by neonatal treatment with monosodium l-glutamate (MSG) induces several metabolic abnormalities, resulting in a rat hyperleptinemic-hyperadipose phenotype. This study was conducted to explore the impact of the neonatal MSG treatment, in the adult (120 days old) female rat on: (a) the in vivo and in vitro mineralocorticoid responses to ACTH and angiotensin II (AII); (b) the effect of leptin on ACTH- and AII-stimulated mineralocorticoid secretions by isolated corticoadrenal cells; and (c) abdominal adiposity characteristics. Our data indicate that, compared with age-matched controls, MSG rats displayed: (1) enhanced and reduced mineralocorticoid responses to ACTH and AII treatments, respectively, effects observed in both in vivo and in vitro conditions; (2) adrenal refractoriness to the inhibitory effect of exogenous leptin on ACTH-stimulated aldosterone output by isolated adrenocortical cells; and (3) distorted omental adiposity morphology and function. This study supports that the adult hyperleptinemic MSG female rat is characterized by enhanced ACTH-driven mineralocorticoid function, impaired adrenal leptin sensitivity, and disrupted abdominal adiposity function. MSG rats could counteract undesirable effects of glucocorticoid excess, by developing a reduced AII-driven mineralocorticoid function. Thus, chronic hyperleptinemia could play a protective role against ACTH-mediated allostatic loads in the adrenal leptin resistant, MSG female rat phenotype.

Overlapping, additive and counterregulatory effects of type II and I interferons on myeloid dendritic cell functions.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are central player in immunity by bridging the innate and adaptive arms of the immune system (IS). Interferons (IFNs) are one of the most important factors that regulate both innate and adaptive immunity too. Thus, the understanding of how type II and I IFNs modulate the immune-regulatory properties of DCs is a central issue in immunology. In this paper, we will address this point in the light of the most recent literature, also highlighting the controversial data reported in the field. According to the wide literature available, type II as well as type I IFNs appear, at the same time, to collaborate, to induce additive effects or overlapping functions, as well as to counterregulate each one's effects on DC biology and, in general, the immune response. The knowledge of these effects has important therapeutic implications in the treatment of infectious/autoimmune diseases and cancer and indicates strategies for using IFNs as vaccine adjuvants and in DC-based immune therapeutic approaches.

Anti-leishmania effector functions of CD4+ Th1 cells and early events instructing Th2 cell development and susceptibility to Leishmania major in BALB/c mice.

Resistance and susceptibility to infection with the intracellular parasite, Leishmania major, are mediated by parasite-specific CD4+ Th1 and Th2 cells, respectively. It is well established that the protective effect of parasite-specific CD4+ Th1 cells is largely dependent upon the IFN-gamma produced. However, recent results indicate that the effect of Th1 cells on resolution of lesions induced by L. major in genetically resistant mice also requires a functional Fas-FasL pathway of cytotoxicity. In contrast to resistant mice, susceptible BALB/c mice develop aberrant Th2 responses following infection with L. major and consequently suffer progressive disease. These outcomes clearly depends upon the production of interleukin 4 (IL-4) early after infection. We have shown that a burst of IL-4 mRNA, peaking in draining lymph nodes of BALB/c mice 16 hrs after infection, occurs within CD4+ T cells that express V beta 4-V alpha 8 T cell receptors. In contrast to control and V beta 6-deficient mice, V beta 4-deficient BALB/c mice were resistant to infection, demonstrating the role of these cells in Th2 development. The early IL-4 response was absent in these mice, and Th1 responses occurred following infection. The LACK antigen of L. major induced comparable IL-4 production in V beta 4-V alpha 8 CD4+ T cells. Thus, the IL-4 required for Th2 development and susceptibility to L. major is produced by a restricted population of V beta 4-V alpha 8 CD4+ T cells after cognate interaction with a single antigen from this complex parasite. The IL-4 produced rapidly by these CD4+ T cells induces within 48 hours a state of unresponsiveness to IL-12 among parasite-specific CD4+ T cell precursors by downregulating the IL-12 receptor beta 2 chain expression.

Preserved decision making ability in early multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to assess decision making in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) at the earliest clinically detectable time point of the disease. METHODS: Patients with definite MS (n = 109) or with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS, n = 56), a disease duration of 3 months to 5 years, and no or only minor neurological impairment (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score 0-2.5) were compared to 50 healthy controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). RESULTS: The performance of definite MS, CIS patients, and controls was comparable for the two main outcomes of the IGT (learning index: p = 0.7; total score: p = 0.6). The IGT learning index was influenced by the educational level and the co-occurrence of minor depression. CIS and MS patients developing a relapse during an observation period of 15 months dated from IGT testing demonstrated a lower learning index in the IGT than patients who had no exacerbation (p = 0.02). When controlling for age, gender and education, the difference between relapsing and non-relapsing patients was at the limit of significance (p = 0.06). CONCLUSION: Decision making in a task mimicking real life decisions is generally preserved in early MS patients as compared to controls. A possible consequence of MS relapsing activity in the impairment of decision making ability is also suspected in the early phase of MS.

Transnational study of roles/functions and associated ICT competencies for Higher Education teachers

Aquest estudi forma part del projecte eLene-TLC1 Virtual Campus (2007-2008) recolzat pel programa eLearning de la Comissió Europea. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és que els professors i els estudiants facin el millor ús possible de les TIC en l'educació superior, preparant als professors per als estudiants de la generació xarxa, permetent als estudiants a la transferència de coneixements i pràctiques de la vida quotidiana per al seu aprenentatge i estimular tant la integració plena de pràctiques innovadores d'ensenyament i d'aprenentatge possibilitades per un entorn tecnològic en constant evolució. Per tal de cobrir part d'aquest objectiu general, es va concebre un estudi per examinar les competències en TIC professors d'Educació Superior en entorns d'aprenentatge en línia.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Comparing methods for dimensionality reduction when data are density functions

Functional Data Analysis (FDA) deals with samples where a whole function is observedfor each individual. A particular case of FDA is when the observed functions are densityfunctions, that are also an example of infinite dimensional compositional data. In thiswork we compare several methods for dimensionality reduction for this particular typeof data: functional principal components analysis (PCA) with or without a previousdata transformation and multidimensional scaling (MDS) for diferent inter-densitiesdistances, one of them taking into account the compositional nature of density functions. The difeerent methods are applied to both artificial and real data (householdsincome distributions)

Hilbert space on probability density functions with Aitchison geometry

Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities