Foreign policy at the service of modernisation: old wine in a new wineskin. OSW Commentary No. 39, 2010-08-31

Russia’s contacts with the external world over the past year have been characterised by a gradual improvement in its relations with the West, as well as the use of non-confrontational rhetoric, the most far-reaching example of which was the address President Dmitri Medvedev gave to Russian ambassadors this July. In an attempt to harmonise foreign policy with the widely propagated programme for the modernisation of Russia1 President Medvedev presented a vision of the Russian Federation as a responsible global power which is open to co-operation. According to this vision, Russian foreign policy would help to attract foreign investments and technologies. The West was presented as a partner, not a rival. Both this rhetoric and the atmosphere of co-operation in relations with the USA and the EU contrast with the assertive and aggressive Russian policy which was symbolised by and culminated in the Russian-Georgian conflict of 2008. The changes observed in Russian foreign policy are quite limited, and are not constructing a new external strategy. Those changes are rather an attempt to find more efficient ways to implement old strategic goals. The new image of a responsible global power is inconsistent, and Russian policy is still assertive and geopolitically motivated. Although a new rhetoric is really in place, the Russian political elite’s perception of their country’s place and role in the contemporary international order remains unchanged. Moscow’s readiness to become engaged in genuine co-operation with the West has not increased significantly; it is still to a great extent declarative in nature.

Russia in Crisis: Year One. OSW Report, January 2010

Economic conditions which had favoured Russia’s development suddenly changed in mid-2008. The Russian economy was hit, on the one hand, by a drastic slump in oil prices (which fell from nearly US$150 to US$50 between July 2008 and January 2009), and on the other by the outflow of investors (a net of US$130 billion of capital left Russia in the fourth quarter of 2008). Within several months, the financial crisis became an economic crisis affecting the entire economy. The financial reserves accumulated in times of prosperity (more than US$162 billion in the stabilisation funds and nearly US$598 billion in the currency and gold reserve) alleviated the negative impact of the crisis, although this failed to prevent the deep declines in macroeconomic indicators. Russia is one of the states most severely affected by the crisis. In the first half of 2009, its GDP fell by 10.4% compared to the same period in the previous year, while industrial production dropped by nearly 15%, and a decrease in investments of over 18% was reported. The poor economic performance has strongly affected the Russian budget, which reported a deficit for the first time in ten years in 2009. During the first year of the crisis (August 2008 – September 2009), Russia’s financial reserves were seriously reduced as a result of the government’s anti-crisis policy and interventions from the central bank: the reserve fund decreased by nearly 45% to US$76 billion, and the central bank’s reserves shrunk by nearly US$200 billion to US$409 billion. Meanwhile, however, the money in the National Welfare Fund, which had been intended almost entirely to subsidise the Pensions Fund between 2010 and 2015, rose almost three-fold (to US$90 billion). According to government forecasts, the money from the reserve fund is also supposed to be spent fully in 2010. The financial crisis has triggered a dynamic outflow of capital from the Russian market. So-called speculative capital was the first to demonstrate the lack of confidence in the Russian market. In the first half of 2009, the growth rate of long-term investments also decreased noticeably, although no spectacular withdrawal of direct investments from Russia has been observed. The economic crisis has also halted the foreign expansion of Russian private capital, while state-owned capital strengthened its position as an investor. Russia’s raw materials companies continue to be the main category of foreign investors; however, new technologies are gaining prominence as the second main direction of Russian investments.

Moldova in 2015: A decisive year for its future. CEPS Commentary, 8 January 2015

Following Moldova’s Parliamentary elections at the end of November, Erwan Fouéré reflects in this Commentary on the wide array of serious challenges facing the country in the coming year. These include notably long-standing internal rivalries, economic woes and the country’s unfortunate position in the middle of an intense geopolitical struggle between Russia and the EU. Judging from what has been achieved in the past year against all odds, however, he finds that the new government will be able to move forward on a sound basis if it promotes a policy of consensus-building across the country, while involving civil society representatives and the business community, including from Transdniestria.

The EU's migrant strategy: a welcome new impetus. EPC Commentary, 19 May 2015

The publication of the Commission's agenda on migration comes at a difficult time: first and foremost in humanitarian terms on account of the recurrent and intolerable tragedies taking place in the Mediterranean, which demand a rapid response; and secondly, in political terms, if we consider both the economic situation (the crisis) and the political situation (the rise of far-right and anti-European parties) which makes all debate and action in this field rather tricky. In this context, the Juncker Commission faced a sensitive challenge because it needed to act quickly but had only limited room for manoeuvre. While certain guidelines had already been revealed at the European Council meeting on 23 April, the publication of the agenda has provided the Commission with an opportunity to recall and to specify the actions it wishes to undertake in the immediate, medium, and long terms. There are three aspects to the agenda worth highlighting: its innovation, its confirmation, and its long-term vision.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): China’s new multilateralism and the erosion of the West. Security Policy Brief No. 63, April 2015

China will launch a new development bank for Asia later this year, called the AIIB. 58 countries worldwide have already applied to become founding members, including numerous Western nations. This policy brief argues that the AIIB constitutes an important international development, as it reflects a new geopolitical reality and marks a new turn in China’s practice of multilateralism. It also looks critically at the European uncoordinated response to the AIIB, and what it tells about Europe’s shrinking role in the world.

The EU’s Enlargement Strategy 2015: Will the ‘new elements’ make a difference? CEPS Commentary, 26 November 2015

After an unprecedented delay, the European Commission adopted its 2015 Enlargement Package on November 10th, together with the annual reports on each of the candidate and prospective candidate countries. In this Commentary, Erwan Fouéré offers his assessment of what Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn called the “new elements” in the package, including an “overarching strategy for the next 4 years” (coinciding with the remainder of the Commission’s mandate), “much clearer guidance to the countries on what they have to focus on in the year ahead”, as well as on the “longer-term results that are needed to meet EU expectations”.

The Coup One Year on: Thailand's "Ugly German" Constitution. Asia Policy Brief 2015/02, May 2015

A year after becoming a military dictatorship once more, Thailand’s new constitution – the 20th since 1932 – is taking shape. In it, the arch-conservative charter drafters stipulate that future elections will be conducted using a variant of Germany’s mixed-member proportional representation system. Their hope is that the resulting coalition governments will prevent future administrations from turning into populist one-man shows. The drafters may be hoping in vain.

Does immediate loading affect clinical and patient-centered outcomes of mandibular 2-unsplinted-implant overdenture? : a 2-year within-case analysis

Objective To provide 2-year clinical- and patient-oriented data with regard to mandibular overdenture assisted by 2 immediately loaded unsplinted implants. Material and methods In this pre-post design, Phase-I clinical trial, 18 edentate individuals (62.4 ± 7.7 years) received a new set of complete denture. Then, following standard procedures, 3 threaded implants (OsseoSpeed TX™, Dentsply Implants, Mölndal, Sweden) were placed in the mandible in each patient, and locator abutments (Zest Anchors LLC, Escondido, U.S.A.) were inserted on the right and left side implants. The midline implant served as a control for within-patient comparison. The immediate loading was conducted within 24 h of surgery. Data were collected at baseline (T0), 12 (T1) and 24 (T2) months after immediate loading. The clinical outcomes included implant survival rate, crestal bone level changes and implant stability. These criteria were assessed through clinical and radiographic examinations as well as resonance frequency analysis. Patient-centered outcomes included patient satisfaction and oral health-related quality of life measured using validated questionnaires. Brunner-Langer approach was used for statistical analysis. Results Implant survival rate for immediate loaded implants was 91.7% at 2-year follow-up. None of the unloaded implants failed. There was no statistically significant difference at baseline and follow-ups with regard to clinical outcomes between loaded and unloaded implants. Patient satisfaction and quality of life improved (p < 0.0001) from baseline to 2-year follow-up. Conclusion Immediate loading protocol did not negatively affect clinical outcomes, satisfaction and quality of life of patients wearing 2-unsplinted-implant mandibular overdenture for 2 years. This conclusion requires confirmation by randomized control trials. Clinical significance statement Mandibular overdenture assisted by two immediately-loaded unsplinted implants is successful treatment based on 2-year clinical and patient-based outcomes.

50 year means of oxygen isotope data from ice core NGRIP

Two deep ice cores from central Greenland, drilled in the 1990s, have played a key role in climate reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere, but the oldest sections of the cores were disturbed in chronology owing to ice folding near the bedrock. Here we present an undisturbed climate record from a North Greenland ice core, which extends back to 123,000 years before the present, within the last interglacial period. The oxygen isotopes in the ice imply that climate was stable during the last interglacial period, with temperatures 5 °C warmer than today. We find unexpectedly large temperature differences between our new record from northern Greenland and the undisturbed sections of the cores from central Greenland, suggesting that the extent of ice in the Northern Hemisphere modulated the latitudinal temperature gradients in Greenland. This record shows a slow decline in temperatures that marked the initiation of the last glacial period. Our record reveals a hitherto unrecognized warm period initiated by an abrupt climate warming about 115,000 years ago, before glacial conditions were fully developed. This event does not appear to have an immediate Antarctic counterpart, suggesting that the climate see-saw between the hemispheres (which dominated the last glacial period) was not operating at this time.

Latitude 19,̊ a romance of the West Indies in the year of Our Lord eighteen hundred and twenty; being a faithful account and true, of the painful adventures of the skipper, the bo's'n, the smith, the mate, and Cynthia;

Mode of access: Internet.

The Mexican American : a new focus on opportunity /

"A report on the activities of the Inter-agency Committee on Mexican American Affairs for the year ending June 30, 1968"--p. [1].

Church music,

Mode of access: Internet.

Beach changes at Long Beach Island, New Jersey, 1962-73 /

Beach profile line data collected from 32 profile sites along Long Beach Island, New Jersey. A total of 2,158 profile line surveys were examined, using empirical eigenfunction analysis and other measures of beach variability. Most profile lines have shown an accretionary trend since 1962 with rates between 2.3 and 0.24 meter per year in spite of erosion estimates due to sea level rise on the order of 0.68 meter per year. A great deal of variability in profile line change takes place along the beach, increasing from north to south, due to the location of profile lines relative to structures and offshore linear shoals. Detailed closely spaced profile lines taken over a year in a groin field near the north end of the island indicate littoral transport directions shift from north to south. Evidence of a littoral transport node near the north end of the groin field has been found. Net transport of the node is toward the south, but the rate could not be established due to lack of adequate wave data. Profile line variability within groin cells shows that single profile lines are not sufficient to determine the net change within a cell. The design of future beach monitoring studies should consider coastal structures, offshore bathymetry, the method of analysis, and the scales of processes under study. A coastal storm in November 1968 moved the MSL back as much as 22 meters; however, the beach recovered without artificial measures. The offshore bathymetry shows a series of shoreface-connected linear shoals at several locations along the island. Limited data show that these have remained stable and that most beach variability takes place in water shallower than 3 meters.

American flower-garden directory : containing practical directions for the culture of plants in the flower-garden, hot-house, green-house, rooms, or parlour windows, for every month of the year .../

Includes index.

American flower-garden directory : containing practical directions for the culture of plants in the flower-garden, hot-house, green-house, rooms, or parlour windows, for every month of the year .../

Includes index.