The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

Use of self-organizing maps and molecular descriptors to predict the cytotoxic activity of sesquiterpene lactones

Some sesquiterpene lactones (SLs) are the active compounds of a great number of traditionally medicinal plants from the Asteraceae family and possess considerable cytotoxic activity. Several studies in vitro have shown the inhibitory activity against cells derived from human carcinoma of the nasopharynx (KB). Chemical studies showed that the cytotoxic activity is due to the reaction of alpha,beta-unsaturated carbonyl structures of the SLs with thiols, such as cysteine. These studies support the view that SLs inhibit tumour growth by selective alkylation of growth-regulatory biological macromolecules, such as key enzymes, which control cell division, thereby inhibiting a variety of cellular functions, which directs the cells into apoptosis. In this study we investigated a set of 55 different sesquiterpene lactones, represented by 5 skeletons (22 germacranolides, 6 elemanolides, 2 eudesmanolides, 16 guaianolides and nor-derivatives and 9 pseudoguaianolides), in respect to their cytotoxic properties. The experimental results and 3D molecular descriptors were submitted to Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) to classify (training set) and predict (test set) the cytotoxic activity. From the obtained results, it was concluded that only the geometrical descriptors showed satisfactory values. The Kohonen map obtained after training set using 25 geometrical descriptors shows a very significant match, mainly among the inactive compounds (similar to 84%). Analyzing both groups, the percentage seen is high (83%). The test set shows the highest match, where 89% of the substances had their cytotoxic activity correctly predicted. From these results, important properties for the inhibition potency are discussed for the whole dataset and for subsets of the different structural skeletons. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Directed Differentiation of Neural Progenitors into Neurons Is Accompanied by Altered Expression of P2X Purinergic Receptors

Neural differentiation has been extensively studied in vitro in a model termed neurospheres, which consists of aggregates of neural progenitor cells. Previous studies suggest that they have a great potential for the treatment of neurological disorders. One of the major challenges for scientists is to control cell fate and develop ideal culture conditions for neurosphere expansion in vitro, without altering their features. Similar to human neural progenitors, rat neurospheres cultured in the absence of epidermal and fibroblast growth factors for a short period increased the levels of beta-3 tubulin and decreased the expression of glial fibrillary acidic protein and nestin, compared to neurospheres cultured in the presence of these factors. In this work, we show that rat neurospheres cultured in suspension under mitogen-free condition presented significant higher expression of P2X2 and P2X6 receptor subunits, when compared to cells cultured in the presence of growth factors, suggesting a direct relationship between P2X2/6 receptor expression and induction of neuronal differentiation in mitogen-free cultured rat neurospheres.

A neural networks study of quinone compounds with trypanocidal activity

This work investigates neural network models for predicting the trypanocidal activity of 28 quinone compounds. Artificial neural networks (ANN), such as multilayer perceptrons (MLP) and Kohonen models, were employed with the aim of modeling the nonlinear relationship between quantum and molecular descriptors and trypanocidal activity. The calculated descriptors and the principal components were used as input to train neural network models to verify the behavior of the nets. The best model for both network models (MLP and Kohonen) was obtained with four descriptors as input. The descriptors were T(5) (torsion angle), QTS1 (sum of absolute values of the atomic charges), VOLS2 (volume of the substituent at region B) and HOMO-1 (energy of the molecular orbital below HOMO). These descriptors provide information on the kind of interaction that occurs between the compounds and the biological receptor. Both neural network models used here can predict the trypanocidal activity of the quinone compounds with good agreement, with low errors in the testing set and a high correctness rate. Thanks to the nonlinear model obtained from the neural network models, we can conclude that electronic and structural properties are important factors in the interaction between quinone compounds that exhibit trypanocidal activity and their biological receptors. The final ANN models should be useful in the design of novel trypanocidal quinones having improved potency.

Artificial Neural Networks and the Study of the Psychoactivity of Cannabinoid Compounds

Cannabinoid compounds have widely been employed because of its medicinal and psychotropic properties. These compounds are isolated from Cannabis sativa (or marijuana) and are used in several medical treatments, such as glaucoma, nausea associated to chemotherapy, pain and many other situations. More recently, its use as appetite stimulant has been indicated in patients with cachexia or AIDS. In this work, the influence of several molecular descriptors on the psychoactivity of 50 cannabinoid compounds is analyzed aiming one obtain a model able to predict the psychoactivity of new cannabinoids. For this purpose, initially, the selection of descriptors was carried out using the Fisher`s weight, the correlation matrix among the calculated variables and principal component analysis. From these analyses, the following descriptors have been considered more relevant: E(LUMO) (energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital), Log P (logarithm of the partition coefficient), VC4 (volume of the substituent at the C4 position) and LP1 (Lovasz-Pelikan index, a molecular branching index). To follow, two neural network models were used to construct a more adequate model for classifying new cannabinoid compounds. The first model employed was multi-layer perceptrons, with algorithm back-propagation, and the second model used was the Kohonen network. The results obtained from both networks were compared and showed that both techniques presented a high percentage of correctness to discriminate psychoactive and psychoinactive compounds. However, the Kohonen network was superior to multi-layer perceptrons.

MACHINE VISION FOR AUTOMATICVISUAL INSPECTION OF WOODENRAILWAY SLEEPERS USING UNSUPERVISED NEURAL NETWORKS

The motivation for this thesis work is the need for improving reliability of equipment and quality of service to railway passengers as well as a requirement for cost-effective and efficient condition maintenance management for rail transportation. This thesis work develops a fusion of various machine vision analysis methods to achieve high performance in automation of wooden rail track inspection.The condition monitoring in rail transport is done manually by a human operator where people rely on inference systems and assumptions to develop conclusions. The use of conditional monitoring allows maintenance to be scheduled, or other actions to be taken to avoid the consequences of failure, before the failure occurs. Manual or automated condition monitoring of materials in fields of public transportation like railway, aerial navigation, traffic safety, etc, where safety is of prior importance needs non-destructive testing (NDT).In general, wooden railway sleeper inspection is done manually by a human operator, by moving along the rail sleeper and gathering information by visual and sound analysis for examining the presence of cracks. Human inspectors working on lines visually inspect wooden rails to judge the quality of rail sleeper. In this project work the machine vision system is developed based on the manual visual analysis system, which uses digital cameras and image processing software to perform similar manual inspections. As the manual inspection requires much effort and is expected to be error prone sometimes and also appears difficult to discriminate even for a human operator by the frequent changes in inspected material. The machine vision system developed classifies the condition of material by examining individual pixels of images, processing them and attempting to develop conclusions with the assistance of knowledge bases and features.A pattern recognition approach is developed based on the methodological knowledge from manual procedure. The pattern recognition approach for this thesis work was developed and achieved by a non destructive testing method to identify the flaws in manually done condition monitoring of sleepers.In this method, a test vehicle is designed to capture sleeper images similar to visual inspection by human operator and the raw data for pattern recognition approach is provided from the captured images of the wooden sleepers. The data from the NDT method were further processed and appropriate features were extracted.The collection of data by the NDT method is to achieve high accuracy in reliable classification results. A key idea is to use the non supervised classifier based on the features extracted from the method to discriminate the condition of wooden sleepers in to either good or bad. Self organising map is used as classifier for the wooden sleeper classification.In order to achieve greater integration, the data collected by the machine vision system was made to interface with one another by a strategy called fusion. Data fusion was looked in at two different levels namely sensor-level fusion, feature- level fusion. As the goal was to reduce the accuracy of the human error on the rail sleeper classification as good or bad the results obtained by the feature-level fusion compared to that of the results of actual classification were satisfactory.

NDVI With Artificial Neural Networks For SRTM Elevation Model Improvement – Hydrological Model Application

Digital elevation model (DEM) plays a substantial role in hydrological study, from understanding the catchment characteristics, setting up a hydrological model to mapping the flood risk in the region. Depending on the nature of study and its objectives, high resolution and reliable DEM is often desired to set up a sound hydrological model. However, such source of good DEM is not always available and it is generally high-priced. Obtained through radar based remote sensing, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) is a publicly available DEM with resolution of 92m outside US. It is a great source of DEM where no surveyed DEM is available. However, apart from the coarse resolution, SRTM suffers from inaccuracy especially on area with dense vegetation coverage due to the limitation of radar signals not penetrating through canopy. This will lead to the improper setup of the model as well as the erroneous mapping of flood risk. This paper attempts on improving SRTM dataset, using Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Visible Red and Near Infra-Red band obtained from Landsat with resolution of 30m, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The assessment of the improvement and the applicability of this method in hydrology would be highlighted and discussed.

Aprendizado relacional por um modelo neural

As técnicas que formam o campo da Descoberta de Conhecimento em Bases de Dados (DCBD) surgiram devido à necessidade de se tratar grandes volumes de dados. O processo completo de DCBD envolve um elevado grau de subjetividade e de trabalho não totalmente automatizado. Podemos dizer que a fase mais automatizada é a de Mineração de Dados (MD). Uma importante técnica para extração de conhecimentosa partir de dados é a Programação Lógica Indutiva (PLI), que se aplica a tarefas de classificação, induzindo conhecimento na forma da lógica de primeira ordem. A PLI tem demonstrado as vantagens de seu aparato de aprendizado em relação a outras abordagens, como por exemplo, aquelas baseadas em aprendizado proposicional Os seus algorítmos de aprendizado apresentam alta expressividade, porém sofrem com a grande complexidade de seus processos, principalmente o teste de corbertura das variáveis. Por outro lado, as Redes Neurais Artificiais (RNs) introduzem um ótimo desempenho devido à sua natureza paralela. às RNs é que geralmente são "caixas pretas", o que torna difícil a obtenção de um interpretação razoável da estrutura geral da rede na forma de construções lógicas de fácil compreensão Várias abordagens híbridas simbólico-conexionistas (por exemplo, o MNC MAC 890 , KBANN SHA 94 , TOW 94 e o sistema INSS OSO 98 têm sido apresentadas para lidar com este problema, permitindo o aprendizado de conhecimento simbólico através d euma RN. Entretanto, estas abordagens ainda lidam com representações atributo-valor. Neste trabalho é apresentado um modelo que combina a expressividade obtida pela PLI com o desempenho de uma rede neural: A FOLONET (First Order Neural Network).