Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Present-Value-Model Short- and Long-run Co-movement Restrictions

This paper has two original contributions. First, we show that the present value model (PVM hereafter), which has a wide application in macroeconomics and fi nance, entails common cyclical feature restrictions in the dynamics of the vector error-correction representation (Vahid and Engle, 1993); something that has been already investigated in that VECM context by Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2011) but has not been discussed before with this new emphasis. We also provide the present value reduced rank constraints to be tested within the log-linear model. Our second contribution relates to forecasting time series that are subject to those long and short-run reduced rank restrictions. The reason why appropriate common cyclical feature restrictions might improve forecasting is because it finds natural exclusion restrictions preventing the estimation of useless parameters, which would otherwise contribute to the increase of forecast variance with no expected reduction in bias. We applied the techniques discussed in this paper to data known to be subject to present value restrictions, i.e. the online series maintained and up-dated by Shiller. We focus on three different data sets. The fi rst includes the levels of interest rates with long and short maturities, the second includes the level of real price and dividend for the S&P composite index, and the third includes the logarithmic transformation of prices and dividends. Our exhaustive investigation of several different multivariate models reveals that better forecasts can be achieved when restrictions are applied to them. Moreover, imposing short-run restrictions produce forecast winners 70% of the time for target variables of PVMs and 63.33% of the time when all variables in the system are considered.

Co-movement between two processes with local persistence

This paper introduces a residual based test where the null hypothesis of c:&InOvement between two processes with local persistenc~ can be tested, even under the presence of an endogenous regressor. It, therefore, fills in an existing lacuna in econometrics, in which longrun relationships can also be tested if the dependent and independent variables do not have a unit root, but do exhibit local persistence.

Síntese, caracterização e cinética da decomposição térmica dos materiais cerâmicos PrMO3 (M = Ni ou Co)

In this work have been studied the preparation, characterization and kinetic study of decomposition of the polymerizing agent used in the synthesis under non-isothermal condition ceramics PrMO3 of general formula (M = Co and Ni). These materials were obtained starting from the respective metal nitrates, as a cations source, and making use of gelatin as polymerizing agent. The powders were calcined at temperatures of 500°C, 700°C and 900°C and characterized by X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Thermogravimetric Analysis (TG / DTG/ DTA), Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Temperature Programmed Reduction (TPR) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The perovskite phase was detected in all the X-rays patterns. In the infrared spectroscopy observed the oxide formation as the calcination temperature increases with the appearance of the band metal - oxygen. The images of SEM revealed uniform distribution for the PrCoO3 and particles agglomerated as consequence of particle size for PrNiO3. From the data of thermal analysis, the kinetics of decomposition of organic matter was employed using the kinetics methods called Model Free Kinetics and Flynn and Wall, in the heating ratios 10, 20 and 30° C.min-1 between room temperature and 700°C. Finally, been obtained the values of activation energy for the region of greatest decomposition of organic matter in samples that were determined by the degree of conversion (α)

Efeito da moagem de alta energia na microestrutura e nas propriedades magnéticas do compósito wc-10%p.Co

This work a studied the high energy milling effect in microstructure and magnetic properties of the WC-10wt.%Co composite. The composite powders were prepared by mechanical mixed and milled at 2 hours, 100 hours, 200 hours and 300 hours in planetary milling. After this process the composite were compacted in stainless steel die with cylindrical county of 10 mm of diameter, at pressure 200 Mpa and sintered in a resistive furnace in argon atmosphere at 1400 oC for 5 min. The sintered composite were cutted, inlaid, sandpapered, and polished. The microestrutural parameters of the composite was analyzed by X-ray diffraction, scanning electronic microscopy, optical microscopy, hardness, magnetic propriety and Rietveld method analyze. The results shows, with milling time increase the particle size decrease, it possibility minor temperature of sintering. The increase of milling time caused allotropic transformation in cobalt phase and cold welding between particles. The cold welding caused the formation of the particle composite. The X-ray diffraction pattern of composite powders shows the WC peaks intensity decrease with the milling time increase. The X-ray diffraction pattern of the composite sintered samples shows the other phases. The magnetic measurements detected a significant increase in the coercitive field and a decrease in the saturation magnetization with milling time increase. The increase coercitive field it was also verified with decrease grain size with milling time increase. For the composite powders the increase coercitive field it was verified with particle size reduction and saturation magnetization variation is relate with the variation of free cobalt. The Rietveld method analyze shows at milling time increase the mean crystalline size of WC, and Co-cfc phases in composite sintered sample are higher than in composite powders. The mean crystallite size of Co-hc phase in composite powders is higher than in composite sintered sample. The mean lattice strains of WC, Co-hc and Co-cfc phases in composite powders are higher than in composite sintered samples. The cells parameters of the composite powder decrease at milling time increase this effect came from the particle size reduction at milling time increase. In sintered composite the cells parameters is constant with milling time increase

A Learning Function for Parameter Reduction in Spiking Neural Networks with Radial Basis Function

Spiking neural networks - networks that encode information in the timing of spikes - are arising as a new approach in the artificial neural networks paradigm, emergent from cognitive science. One of these new models is the pulsed neural network with radial basis function, a network able to store information in the axonal propagation delay of neurons. Learning algorithms have been proposed to this model looking for mapping input pulses into output pulses. Recently, a new method was proposed to encode constant data into a temporal sequence of spikes, stimulating deeper studies in order to establish abilities and frontiers of this new approach. However, a well known problem of this kind of network is the high number of free parameters - more that 15 - to be properly configured or tuned in order to allow network convergence. This work presents for the first time a new learning function for this network training that allow the automatic configuration of one of the key network parameters: the synaptic weight decreasing factor.

(-)-Hinokinin-loaded poly(d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) microparticles for Chagas disease

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Detection of hemoplasma and Bartonella species and co-infection with retroviruses in cats subjected to a spaying/neutering program in Jaboticabal, SP, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genetic associations of sexual precocity with growth traits and visual scores of conformation, finishing, and muscling in Nelore cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chemical composition and fermentation characteristics of elephant grass silage with biodiesel industry co-products

The objective of this research was to evaluate the effect of three concentrations (3, 6, and 9%) of forage turnip (Raphanus sativus) and physic nut (Jatropha curcas) cakes on dry matter, crude protein, ether extract, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, lignin, acid detergent insoluble nitrogen neutral detergent insoluble nitrogen contents, in vitro dry matter digestibility, pH values and concentrations of N-NH3 in elephant grass silages. It was used an entirely randomized design in factorial arrangement [(2x3)+1]. Experimental PVC silos were used and ensiled material was kept for 62 days. The addition of cakes increased the dry matter contents (P<0.05). The fibrous fractions were reduced (P<0.05) with the inclusion of cakes during the grass ensilage and the CP contents increased (P<0.05). The forage turnip cake provided the same pH and N-NH3 values in ideal levels and the physic nut, added to 9%, increased those values (P<0.05). IVDMD was reduced (P<0.05) when the cakes were added. These co-products can be used in small amounts for elephant grass ensilage in order to provide improvement in chemical and fermentation characteristics of the silages. Nevertheless, physic nut cake shows limitations for its use in animal feeding due to the presence of toxic compounds, making necessary studies for their identification and elimination.

Análise estatística das emissões de CO e HC produzidas por gases da exaustão veicular oriundos de gasolina, GNV e mistura álcool/gasolina

The vehicles are the main mobile sources of carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbons (HC) released into the atmosphere. In the last years the increment of the fleet of vehicles in the municipal district of Natal-RN it is contributing to the increase of the emissions of those pollutants. The study consisted of a statistical analysis of the emissions of CO and HC of a composed sample for 384 vehicles with mechanization Gasoline/CNG or Alcohol/Gasoline/CNG of the municipal district of Natal-RN. The tests were accomplished in vehicles submitted to Vehicular Safety's Inspection, in the facilities of INSPETRANS, Organism of Vehicular Inspection. An partial gases analyzer allowed to measure, for each vehicle, the levels of CO and HC in two conditions of rotation of the motor (900 and 2500 rpm). The statistical analysis accomplished through the STATISTICA software revealed a sensitive reduction in the efficiency of the converters catalytic after 6 years of use with emission average it is of 0,78% of CO and 156 (ppm) of HC, Which represents approximately 4 (four) times the amount of CO and the double of HC in comparison with the newest vehicles. The result of a Student s t-test, suggests strongly that the average of the emissions of HC (152 ppm), at 900 rpm, is 40% larger than at 2500 rpm, for the motor without load. This result reveals that the efficiency of the catalytic conversion is limited kinetically in low engine speeds. The Study also ends that when comparing the emissions of CO and HC considering the influence of the fuels, it was verified that although the emissions of CO starting from CNG are 62% smaller than arising from the gasoline, there are not significant differences among the emissions of HC originating from of CNG and of the gasoline. In synthesis, the results place the current criteria of vehicular inspection, for exhaust gases, in doubt, leading the creation of emission limits of pollutant more rigorous, because the efficiency of the converters catalytic is sensibly reduced starting from 6 years of use. It is also raised the possibility of modifications in the test conditions adopted by the current norms, specifically in the speed engine, have seen that in the condition without load the largest emission indexes were registered in slow march. That fact that allows to suggest the dismissal of the tests in high speed engine, reducing the time of inspection in half and generating economy of fuel

Adsorption of Cu(II) and Co(II) complexes on a silica gel surface chemically modified with 2-mercaptoimidazole

The isotherms of adsorption of MeX2 (Me = Cu2+, Co2+; X = Cl-, Br-, ClO4-) by silica gel chemically modified with 2-mercaptoimidazole (SiMI) were studied in acetone and ethanol solutions, at 25 degrees C. Covalently attached 2-mercaptoimidazole molecule to silica gel surface adsorbs MeX2 from solvent by forming a surface complex. The metal is bonded to the surface through the nitrogen atom of attached 2-mercaptoimidazole. At low loading, the electronic and ESR spectral parameters indicated that the Cu2+ complexes are in a distorted-tetragonal symmetry field. The d-d electronic transition spectra showed that for Cu(ClO4)(2) complex, the peak of absorption did not change for any degree of metal loading and for Cl- and Br- complexes, the peak maxima shifted to higher energy with lower metal loading. The CoX2(X = Cl-, Br-, ClO4-) analogues possess a distorted-tetrahedral field.

Romifidine or xylazine combined with ketamine in dogs premedicated with methotrimeprazine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Canine distemper virus and Toxoplasma gondii co-infection in dogs with neurological signs

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Linfoma primário de células T no líquido cefalorraquidiano de cão: relato de caso

Relata-se o diagnóstico de linfoma primário no sistema nervoso central em um cão Labrador Retrievier, de 10 anos de idade, que apresentava episódios convulsivos, incoordenação nos membros posteriores, head tilt, ataxia e sensibilidade diminuída no lado esquerdo. Constataram-se alterações laterais esquerdas, como ausências de propriocepção e de posicionamento tátil, alterações posteriores nas provas de carrinho de mão e de reação ao pulo e diminuição da extensão da postura e hemilocomoção. No líquido cefalorraquidiano (LCR), houve predomínio de linfócitos atípicos, caracterizados pela presença de anisocitose e anisocariose, nucléolos evidentes e anisonucleose, basofilia e microvacuolização citoplasmáticas, mitoses atípicas e corpúsculos linfoglandulares, compatíveis com linfoma, confirmado pelo exame histológico e imunocitoquímico, o qual revelou origem T, com expressão CD3+ e CD79-. A tomografia computadorizada não foi conclusiva e evidenciou diversas áreas hipodensas e intensificação de contraste na região de sulcos e giros do parênquima encefálico. A coleta do LCR foi essencial na rapidez do diagnóstico definitivo, indicando a natureza rara desta lesão primária.

Local application of tetracycline solution with a microbrush: An alternative treatment for persistent periodontitis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)