Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Exploraty Multivariate Statistical Methods Applied to Pharmaceutical Industry CRM Data

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Mecanismos de inflamação brônquica resultantes da exposição a factores ambientais

RESUMO Tratando-se a asma de uma doença respiratória, desde há várias décadas que tem sido abordada a hipótese de que factores ambientais, nomeadamente os relacionados com a qualidade do ar inalado, possam contribuir para o seu agravamento. Para além dos aeroalergenos, outros factores ambientais como a poluição atmosférica estarão associados às doenças respiratórias. O ar respirado contém uma variedade de poluentes atmosféricos, provenientes quer de fontes naturais quer de origem antropogénica, nomeadamente de actividades industriais, domésticas ou das emissões de veículos. Estes poluentes, tradicionalmente considerados como um problema de foro ambiental, têm sido cada vez mais encarados como um problema de saúde pública. Também a qualidade do ar interior, tem sido associada a queixas respiratórias, não só em termos ocupacionais mas também em exposições domésticas. Dentro dos principais poluentes, encontramos a matéria particulada (como as PM10), o O3, NO2, e os compostos orgânicos voláteis (COVs). Se é verdade que os três primeiros têm como principais fontes de exposição a combustão fóssil associada aos veículos automóveis, já os COVs (como o benzeno, tolueno, xileno, etilbenzeno e formaldeído) são poluentes mais característicos do ar interior. Os mecanismos fisiopatológicos subjacentes à agressão dos poluentes do ar não se encontram convenientemente esclarecidos. Pensa-se que após a sua inalação, induzam um grau crescente de stress oxidativo que será responsável pelo desenvolvimento da inflamação das vias aéreas. A progressão do stress oxidativo e da inflamação, associarse- ão posteriormente a lesão local (pulmonar) e sistémica. Neste trabalho pretendeu-se avaliar os efeitos da exposição individual a diversos poluentes, do ar exterior e interior, sobre as vias aéreas, recorrendo a parâmetros funcionais, inflamatórios e do estudo do stress oxidativo. Neste sentido, desenvolveu-se um estudo de painel na cidade de Viseu, em que foram acompanhadas durante 18 meses, 51 crianças com história de sibilância, identificadas pelo questionário do estudo ISAAC. As crianças foram avaliadas em quatro Visitas (quatro medidas repetidas), através de diversos exames, que incluíram execução de espirometria com broncodilatação, medição ambulatória do PEF, medição de FENO e estudo do pH no condensado brônquico do ar exalado. O estudo dos 8-isoprostanos no condensado brônquico foi efectuado somente em duas Visitas, e o do doseamento de malonaldeído urinário somente na última Visita. Para além da avaliação do grau de infestação de ácaros do pó do colchão, para cada criança foi calculado o valor de exposição individual a PM10, O3, NO2, benzeno, tolueno, xileno, etilbenzeno e formaldeído, através de uma complexa metodologia que envolveu técnicas de modelação associadas a medições directas do ar interior (na casa e escola da criança) e do ar exterior. Para a análise de dados foram utilizadas equações de estimação generalizadas com uma matriz de correlação de trabalho uniforme, com excepção do estudo das associações entre poluentes, 8-isoprostanos e malonaldeído. Verificou-se na análise multivariável a existência de uma associação entre o agravamento dos parâmetros espirométricos e a exposição aumentada a PM10, NO2, benzeno, tolueno e etilbenzeno. Foram também encontradas associações entre diminuição do pH do EBC e exposição crescente a PM10, NO2, benzeno e etilbenzeno e associações entre valores aumentados de FENO e exposição a etilbenzeno e tolueno. O benzeno, o tolueno e o etilbenzeno foram associados com maior recurso a broncodilatador nos 6 meses anteriores à Visita e o tolueno com deslocações ao serviço de urgência. Os resultados dos modelos de regressão que incluíram o efeito do poluente ajustado para o grau de infestação de ácaros do pó foram, de uma forma geral, idênticos ao da análise multivariável anterior, com excepção das associações para com o FENO. Nos modelos de exposição com dois poluentes, com o FEV1 como variável resposta, somente o benzeno persistiu com significado estatístico. No modelo com dois poluentes tendo o pH do EBC como variável resposta, somente persistiram as PM10. Os 8-isoprostanos correlacionaram-se com alguns COVs, designadamente etilbenzeno, xileno, tolueno e benzeno. Os valores de malonaldeído urinário não se correlacionaram com os valores de poluentes. Verificou-se no entanto que de uma forma geral, e em particular mais uma vez para os COVs, as crianças mais expostas a poluentes, apresentaram valores superiores de malonaldeído na urina. Verificou-se que os poluentes do ar em geral, e os COVs em particular, se associaram com uma deterioração das vias aéreas. A exposição crescente a poluentes associou-se não só com obstrução brônquica, mas também com FENO aumentado e maior acidez das vias aéreas. A exposição crescente a COVs correlacionou-se com um maior stress oxidativo das vias aéreas (medido pelos 8-isoprostanos). As crianças com exposição superior a COVs apresentaram maiores valores de malonaldeído urinário. Este trabalho sugere uma associação entre exposição a poluentes, inflamação das vias aéreas e stress oxidativo. Vem reforçar o interesse dos poluentes do ar, nomeadamente os associados a ambientes interiores, frequentemente esquecidos e que poderão ser explicativos do agravamento duma criança com sibilância.-----------ABSTRACT: Asthma is a chronic respiratory disease that could be influenced by environmental factors, as allergens and air pollutants. The air breathed contains a diversity of air pollutants, both from natural or anthropogenic sources. Atmospheric pollution, traditionally considered an environmental problem, is nowadays looked as an important public health problem. Indoor air pollutants are also related with respiratory diseases, not only in terms of occupational exposures but also in domestic activities. Particulate matter (such as PM10), O3, NO2 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are the main air pollutants. The main source for PM10, O3, NO2 exposure is traffic exhaust while for VOCs (such as benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene and phormaldehyde) the main sources for exposure are located in indoor environments. The pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying the aggression of air pollutants are not properly understood. It is thought that after inhalation, air pollutants could induce oxidative stress, which would be responsible for airways inflammation. The progression of oxidative stress and airways inflammation, would contribute for the local and systemic effects of the air pollutants. The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of individual exposure to various pollutants over the airways, through lung function tests, inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers. In this sense, we developed a panel study in the city of Viseu, that included 51 children with a history of wheezing. Those children that were identified by the ISAAC questionnaire, were followed for 18 months. Children were assessed four times (four repeated measures) through the following tests: spirometry with bronchodilation test, PEF study, FENO evaluation and exhaled breath condensate pH measurement. 8-isoprostane in the exhaled breath condensate were also measured but only in two visits. Urinary malonaldehyde measurement was performed only in the last visit. Besides the assessment of the house dust mite infestation, we calculated for each child the value of individual exposure to a wide range of pollutants: PM10, O3, NO2, benzene, toluene, xylene, ethyl benzene and formaldehyde. This strategy used a complex methodology that included air pollution modelling techniques and direct measurements indoors (homes and schools) and outdoors. Generalized estimating equations with an exchangeable working correlation matrix were used for the analysis of the data. Exceptions were for the study of associations between air pollutants, malonaldehyde and 8-isoprostanes. In the multivariate analysis we found an association between worsening of spirometric outcomes and increased exposure to PM10, NO2, benzene, toluene and ethylbenzene. In the multivariate analysis we found also negative associations between EBC pH and exposure to PM10, NO2, benzene, ethylbenzene and positive associations between FENO and exposure to ethylbenzene and toluene. Benzene, toluene and ethylbenzene were associated with increased use of bronchodilator in the 6 months prior to the visit and toluene with emergency department visits. Results of the regression models that included also the effect of the pollutant adjusted for the degree of infestation to house dust mites, were identical to the previous models. Exceptions were for FENO associations. In the two-pollutant models, with the FEV1 as dependent variable, only benzene persisted with statistical significance. In the two pollutant model with pH of EBC as dependent variable, only PM10 persisted. 8-isoprostanes were well correlated with some VOCs, namely with ethylbenzene, xylene, toluene and benzene. Urinary malonaldehyde did not present any correlation with air pollutants exposure. However, those children more exposed to air pollutants (namely to VOCs), presented higher values of malonaldehyde. It was found that air pollutants in general, and namely VOCs, were associated with deterioration of the airways. The increased exposure to air pollutants was associated not only with airways obstruction, but also with increased FENO and higher acidity of the airways. The increased exposure to VOCs was correlated with increased airways oxidative stress (measured by 8-isoprostane). Children with higher levels of exposure to VOCs had higher values of urinary malonaldehyde. This study suggests a relation between air pollution, airways inflammation and oxidative stress. It suggests also that attention should be dedicated to air quality as air pollutants could cause airways deterioration.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Development of novel human cellular models for neurotoxicity studies

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Is It Possible to Simplify Risk Stratification Scores for Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Angioplasty?

INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

The HIF1A Functional Genetic Polymorphism at Locus +1772 Associates with Progression to Metastatic Prostate Cancer and Refractoriness to Hormonal Castration

The hypoxia inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF1a) is a key regulator of tumour cell response to hypoxia, orchestrating mechanisms known to be involved in cancer aggressiveness and metastatic behaviour. In this study we sought to evaluate the association of a functional genetic polymorphism in HIF1A with overall and metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) risk and with response to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). The HIF1A +1772 C>T (rs11549465) polymorphism was genotyped, using DNA isolated from peripheral blood, in 1490 male subjects (754 with prostate cancer and 736 controls cancer-free) through Real-Time PCR. A nested group of cancer patients who were eligible for androgen deprivation therapy was followed up. Univariate and multivariate models were used to analyse the response to hormonal treatment and the risk for developing distant metastasis. Age-adjusted odds ratios were calculated to evaluate prostate cancer risk. Our results showed that patients under ADT carrying the HIF1A +1772 T-allele have increased risk for developing distant metastasis (OR, 2.0; 95%CI, 1.1-3.9) and an independent 6-fold increased risk for resistance to ADT after multivariate analysis (OR, 6.0; 95%CI, 2.2-16.8). This polymorphism was not associated with increased risk for being diagnosed with prostate cancer (OR, 0.9; 95%CI, 0.7-1.2). The HIF1A +1772 genetic polymorphism predicts a more aggressive prostate cancer behaviour, supporting the involvement of HIF1a in prostate cancer biological progression and ADT resistance. Molecular profiles using hypoxia markers may help predict clinically relevant prostate cancer and response to ADT.

Familial Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Is Associated With More Complications After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair

OBJECTIVE: A familial predisposition to abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) is present in approximately one-fifth of patients. Nevertheless, the clinical implications of a positive family history are not known. We investigated the risk of aneurysm-related complications after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for patients with and without a positive family history of AAA. METHODS: Patients treated with EVAR for intact AAAs in the Erasmus University Medical Center between 2000 and 2012 were included in the study. Family history was obtained by written questionnaire. Familial AAA (fAAA) was defined as patients having at least one first-degree relative affected with aortic aneurysm. The remaining patients were considered sporadic AAA. Cardiovascular risk factors, aneurysm morphology (aneurysm neck, aneurysm sac, and iliac measurements), and follow-up were obtained prospectively. The primary end point was complications after EVAR, a composite of endoleaks, need for secondary interventions, aneurysm sac growth, acute limb ischemia, and postimplantation rupture. Secondary end points were specific components of the primary end point (presence of endoleak, need for secondary intervention, and aneurysm sac growth), aneurysm neck growth, and overall survival. Kaplan-Meier estimates for the primary end point were calculated and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test of equality. A Cox-regression model was used to calculate the independent risk of complications associated with fAAA. RESULTS: A total of 255 patients were included in the study (88.6% men; age 72 ± 7 years, median follow-up 3.3 years; interquartile range, 2.2-6.1). A total of 51 patients (20.0%) were classified as fAAA. Patients with fAAA were younger (69 vs 72 years; P = .015) and were less likely to have ever smoked (58.8% vs 73.5%; P = .039). Preoperative aneurysm morphology was similar in both groups. Patients with fAAA had significantly more complications after EVAR (35.3% vs 19.1%; P = .013), with a twofold increased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.7). Secondary interventions (39.2% vs 20.1%; P = .004) and aneurysm sac growth (20.8% vs 9.5%; P = .030) were the most important elements accounting for the difference. Furthermore, a trend toward more type I endoleaks during follow-up was observed (15.6% vs 7.4%; P = .063) and no difference in overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: The current study shows that patients with a familial form of AAA develop more aneurysm-related complications after EVAR, despite similar AAA morphology at baseline. These findings suggest that patients with fAAA form a specific subpopulation and create awareness for a possible increase in the risk of complications after EVAR.

Women's Attachment as a Predictor of Pain During Labour and Post-Delivery: a Prospective Observational Study

INTRODUCTION: Labour is considered to be one of the most painful and significant experiences in a woman's life. The aim of this study was to examine whether women's attachment style is a predictor of the pain experienced throughout labour and post-delivery. MATERIAL AND METHODS:Thirty-two pregnant women were assessed during the third trimester of pregnancy and during labour. Adult attachment was assessed with the Adult Attachment Scale ' Revised. The perceived intensity of labour pain was measured using a visual analogue scale for pain in the early stage of labour, throughout labour and post-delivery. RESULTS:Women with an insecure attachment style reported more pain at 3 cm of cervical dilatation (p < 0.05), before the administration of analgesia (p < 0.01) and post-delivery (p < 0.05) than those securely attached. In multivariate models, attachment style was a significant predictor of labour pain at 3 cm of cervical dilatation and before the first administration of analgesia but not of the perceived pain post-delivery. DISCUSSION: These findings confirm that labour pain is influenced by relevant psychological factors and suggest that a woman's attachment style may be a risk factor for greater pain during labour. CONCLUSION:Future studies in the context of obstetric pain may consider the attachment style as an indicator of individual differences in the pain response during labour. This may have important implications in anaesthesiology and to promote a relevant shift in institutional practices and therapeutic procedures.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.