A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Data stream mining in ubiquitous environments: state-of-the-art and current directions

In this article, we review the state-of-the-art techniques in mining data streams for mobile and ubiquitous environments. We start the review with a concise background of data stream processing, presenting the building blocks for mining data streams. In a wide range of applications, data streams are required to be processed on small ubiquitous devices like smartphones and sensor devices. Mobile and ubiquitous data mining target these applications with tailored techniques and approaches addressing scarcity of resources and mobility issues. Two categories can be identified for mobile and ubiquitous mining of streaming data: single-node and distributed. This survey will cover both categories. Mining mobile and ubiquitous data require algorithms with the ability to monitor and adapt the working conditions to the available computational resources. We identify the key characteristics of these algorithms and present illustrative applications. Distributed data stream mining in the mobile environment is then discussed, presenting the Pocket Data Mining framework. Mobility of users stimulates the adoption of context-awareness in this area of research. Context-awareness and collaboration are discussed in the Collaborative Data Stream Mining, where agents share knowledge to learn adaptive accurate models.

Numerical analyses of Runge–Kutta implicit–explicit schemes for horizontally explicit, vertically implicit solutions of atmospheric models

With the prospect of exascale computing, computational methods requiring only local data become especially attractive. Consequently, the typical domain decomposition of atmospheric models means horizontally-explicit vertically-implicit (HEVI) time-stepping schemes warrant further attention. In this analysis, Runge-Kutta implicit-explicit schemes from the literature are analysed for their stability and accuracy using a von Neumann stability analysis of two linear systems. Attention is paid to the numerical phase to indicate the behaviour of phase and group velocities. Where the analysis is tractable, analytically derived expressions are considered. For more complicated cases, amplification factors have been numerically generated and the associated amplitudes and phase diagnosed. Analysis of a system describing acoustic waves has necessitated attributing the three resultant eigenvalues to the three physical modes of the system. To do so, a series of algorithms has been devised to track the eigenvalues across the frequency space. The result enables analysis of whether the schemes exactly preserve the non-divergent mode; and whether there is evidence of spurious reversal in the direction of group velocities or asymmetry in the damping for the pair of acoustic modes. Frequency ranges that span next-generation high-resolution weather models to coarse-resolution climate models are considered; and a comparison is made of errors accumulated from multiple stability-constrained shorter time-steps from the HEVI scheme with a single integration from a fully implicit scheme over the same time interval. Two schemes, “Trap2(2,3,2)” and “UJ3(1,3,2)”, both already used in atmospheric models, are identified as offering consistently good stability and representation of phase across all the analyses. Furthermore, according to a simple measure of computational cost, “Trap2(2,3,2)” is the least expensive.

Colombian agriculture under multiple exposures: a review and research agenda

We adopt the multiple exposures framework to review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change, trade liberalization, and violent conflict on Colombian agriculture. These stressors act simultaneously but policies address them separately, overlooking the root causes of vulnerability. We find that the expected impacts of the single stressors have been relatively well documented, but that limited research has been dedicated to the observed effects of these three stressors and to their interactions. We propose a research agenda in three themes: trade-offs; social mechanisms; and governance. This agenda can inform not only agricultural adaptation but also debate on the alternative agricultural development models.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

State capitalism and social responsibility in China's banking industry

China’s financial system has experienced a series of major reforms in recent years. Efforts have been made towards introducing the shareholding system in state-owned commercial banks, restructuring of securities firms, re-organising equity of joint venture insurance companies, further improving the corporate governance structure, managing financial risks and ultimately establishing a system to protect investors (Xinhua, 2010). Financial product innovation, with the further opening up of financial markets and the development of the insurance and bond market, has increased liquidity as well as reduced financial risks. The U.S. subprime crisis indicated the benefit of financial innovations for the economy, but without proper control, they may lead to unexpected consequences. Kirkpatrick (2009) argues that failures and weaknesses in corporate governance arrangements and insufficient accounting standards and regulatory requirements attributed to the financial crisis. Similar to the financial crises of the last decade, the global financial crisis which sparked in 2008, surfaced a variety of significant corporate governance failures: the dysfunction of market mechanisms, the lack of transparency and accountability, misaligned compensation arrangements and the late response of government, all which encouraged management short-termism, poor risk management, as well as some fraudulent schemes. The unique characteristics of the Chinese banking system are an interesting point for studying post-crisis corporate governance reform. Considering that China modelled its governance system on the Anglo-American system, this paper examines the impact of the financial crisis on corporate governance reform in developed economies, and particularly, China’s reform of its financial sector. The paper further analyses the Chinese government’s role in bank supervision and risk management. In this regard, the paper contributes to the corporate governance literature within the Chinese context by providing insights into the contributing factors to the corporate governance failure that led to the global financial crisis. It also provides policy recommendations for China’s policy makers to seriously consider. The results suggest a need for the re-examination of corporate governance adequacy and the institutionalisation of business ethics. The paper’s next section provides a review of China’s financial system with reference to the financial crisis, followed by a critical evaluation of a capitalistic system and a review of Anglo-American and Continental European models. It then analyses the need for a new corporate governance model in China by considering the bank failures in developed economies and the potential risks and inefficiencies in a current State controlled system. The paper closes by reflecting the need for Chinese policy makers to continually develop, adapt and rewrite corporate governance practices capable of meeting the new challenge, and to pay attention to business ethics, an issue which goes beyond regulation.

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Meteorological forcing data for urban outdoor thermal comfort models from a coupled convective boundary layer and surface energy balance scheme

Site-specific meteorological forcing appropriate for applications such as urban outdoor thermal comfort simulations can be obtained using a newly coupled scheme that combines a simple slab convective boundary layer (CBL) model and urban land surface model (ULSM) (here two ULSMs are considered). The former simulates daytime CBL height, air temperature and humidity, and the latter estimates urban surface energy and water balance fluxes accounting for changes in land surface cover. The coupled models are tested at a suburban site and two rural sites, one irrigated and one unirrigated grass, in Sacramento, U.S.A. All the variables modelled compare well to measurements (e.g. coefficient of determination = 0.97 and root mean square error = 1.5 °C for air temperature). The current version is applicable to daytime conditions and needs initial state conditions for the CBL model in the appropriate range to obtain the required performance. The coupled model allows routine observations from distant sites (e.g. rural, airport) to be used to predict air temperature and relative humidity in an urban area of interest. This simple model, which can be rapidly applied, could provide urban data for applications such as air quality forecasting and building energy modelling, in addition to outdoor thermal comfort.

On flow reversal boundaries and transpolar voltage in average models of high-latitude convection

The implications of polar cap expansions, contractions and movements for empirical models of high-latitude plasma convection are examined. Some of these models have been generated by directly averaging flow measurements from large numbers of satellite passes or radar scans; others have employed more complex means to combine data taken at different times into large-scale patterns of flow. In all cases, the models have implicitly adopted the assumption that the polar cap is in steady state: they have all characterized the ionospheric flow in terms of the prevailing conditions (e.g. the interplanetary magnetic field and/or some index of terrestrial magnetic activity) without allowance for their history. On long enough time scales, the polar cap is indeed in steady state but on time scales shorter than a few hours it is not and can oscillate in size and position. As a result, the method used to combine the data can influence the nature of the convection reversal boundary and the transpolar voltage in the derived model. This paper discusses a variety of effects due to time-dependence in relation to some ionospheric convection models which are widely applied. The effects are shown to be varied and to depend upon the procedure adopted to compile the model.

State-resolved gas-surface reactivity of methane in the symmetric C-H stretch vibration on Ni(100)

The state-resolved reactivity of CH4 in its totally symmetric C-H stretch vibration (�1) has been measured on a Ni(100) surface. Methane molecules were accelerated to kinetic energies of 49 and 63:5 kJ=mol in a molecular beam and vibrationally excited to �1 by stimulated Raman pumping before surface impact at normal incidence. The reactivity of the symmetric-stretch excited CH4 is about an order of magnitude higher than that of methane excited to the antisymmetric stretch (�3) reported by Juurlink et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 868 (1999)] and is similar to that we have previously observed for the excitation of the first overtone (2�3). The difference between the state-resolved reactivity for �1 and �3 is consistent with predictions of a vibrationally adiabatic model of the methane reaction dynamics and indicates that statistical models cannot correctly describe the chemisorption of CH4 on nickel.

Estimating Lorenz's reference state in an ocean with a nonlinear equation of state for seawater

The study of the mechanical energy budget of the oceans using Lorenz available potential energy (APE) theory is based on knowledge of the adiabatically re-arranged Lorenz reference state of minimum potential energy. The compressible and nonlinear character of the equation of state for seawater has been thought to cause the reference state to be ill-defined, casting doubt on the usefulness of APE theory for investigating ocean energetics under realistic conditions. Using a method based on the volume frequency distribution of parcels as a function of temperature and salinity in the context of the seawater Boussinesq approximation, which we illustrate using climatological data, we show that compressibility effects are in fact minor. The reference state can be regarded as a well defined one-dimensional function of depth, which forms a surface in temperature, salinity and density space between the surface and the bottom of the ocean. For a very small proportion of water masses, this surface can be multivalued and water parcels can have up to two statically stable levels in the reference density profile, of which the shallowest is energetically more accessible. Classifying parcels from the surface to the bottom gives a different reference density profile than classifying in the opposite direction. However, this difference is negligible. We show that the reference state obtained by standard sorting methods is equivalent, though computationally more expensive, to the volume frequency distribution approach. The approach we present can be applied systematically and in a computationally efficient manner to investigate the APE budget of the ocean circulation using models or climatological data.

Neural population models and cortical field theory: overview

The term neural population models (NPMs) is used here as catchall for a wide range of approaches that have been variously called neural mass models, mean field models, neural field models, bulk models, and so forth. All NPMs attempt to describe the collective action of neural assemblies directly. Some NPMs treat the densely populated tissue of cortex as an excitable medium, leading to spatially continuous cortical field theories (CFTs). An indirect approach would start by modelling individual cells and then would explain the collective action of a group of cells by coupling many individual models together. In contrast, NPMs employ collective state variables, typically defined as averages over the group of cells, in order to describe the population activity directly in a single model. The strength and the weakness of his approach are hence one and the same: simplification by bulk. Is this justified and indeed useful, or does it lead to oversimplification which fails to capture the pheno ...

The greening of Arabia: multiple opportunities for human occupation of the Arabian peninsula during the Late Pleistocene inferred from an ensemble of climate model simulations

Climate models are potentially useful tools for addressing human dispersals and demographic change. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming increasingly significant in the story of human dispersals out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene. Although characterised largely by arid environments today, emerging climate records indicate that the peninsula was wetter many times in the past, suggesting that the region may have been inhabited considerably more than hitherto thought. Explaining the origins and spatial distribution of increased rainfall is challenging because palaeoenvironmental research in the region is in an early developmental stage. We address environmental oscillations by assembling and analysing an ensemble of five global climate models (CCSM3, COSMOS, HadCM3, KCM, and NorESM). We focus on precipitation, as the variable is key for the development of lakes, rivers and savannas. The climate models generated here were compared with published palaeoenvironmental data such as palaeolakes, speleothems and alluvial fan records as a means of validation. All five models showed, to varying degrees, that the Arabia Peninsula was significantly wetter than today during the Last Interglacial (130 ka and 126/125 ka timeslices), and that the main source of increased rainfall was from the North African summer monsoon rather than the Indian Ocean monsoon or from Mediterranean climate patterns. Where available, 104 ka (MIS 5c), 56 ka (early MIS 3) and 21 ka (LGM) timeslices showed rainfall was present but not as extensive as during the Last Interglacial. The results favour the hypothesis that humans potentially moved out of Africa and into Arabia on multiple occasions during pluvial phases of the Late Pleistocene.

State of the art of learning styles-based adaptive educational hypermedia systems (Ls-Baehss)

The notion that learning can be enhanced when a teaching approach matches a learner’s learning style has been widely accepted in classroom settings since the latter represents a predictor of student’s attitude and preferences. As such, the traditional approach of ‘one-size-fits-all’ as may be applied to teaching delivery in Educational Hypermedia Systems (EHSs) has to be changed with an approach that responds to users’ needs by exploiting their individual differences. However, establishing and implementing reliable approaches for matching the teaching delivery and modalities to learning styles still represents an innovation challenge which has to be tackled. In this paper, seventy six studies are objectively analysed for several goals. In order to reveal the value of integrating learning styles in EHSs, different perspectives in this context are discussed. Identifying the most effective learning style models as incorporated within AEHSs. Investigating the effectiveness of different approaches for modelling students’ individual learning traits is another goal of this study. Thus, the paper highlights a number of theoretical and technical issues of LS-BAEHSs to serve as a comprehensive guidance for researchers who interest in this area.