A STUDY OF DIVERSITY AND COMMUNITY COMPARISON INDICES BY BIOASSAY OF COPPER USING COLONIZED BENTHIC MACROINVERTEBRATES

A community bioassay of copper was performed using benthic macroinvertebrates colonized on multiplate substrate samplers. Five copper concentrations ranging from 0.080-2.20 mg/l total copper were administered to five artificial streams by a Mount and Brungs proportional dilutor. Free copper ion as Cu('++) ranged from .002-.053 mg/l. A sixth stream received no copper and served as a control. Substrates were sampled at days 0, 14, and 28, and the results were used to compare 13 indices used or proposed to assess aquatic environmental impact. Sensitivity of the indices to changes in communities with respect to concentration and time was the basis for the comparison.^ Results indicated that all of the 8 diversity or richness indices tested gave approximately the same result (with the exception of number of species); they increased over the first 2-3 concentrations, then declined. Included among these was the Shannon index which gave false positive results, i.e., it increased, indicating enrichment, when in fact perturbation had occurred. This result was due to the disproportionate effect on the most abundant taxa, which caused a more even distribution of individuals among species. Number of species and individuals declined with increased concentration and time, with only one exception in the case of species, indicating perturbation.^ Results of five community comparison indices were varied at day 14 but by day 28 the results indicated a clear, nearly monotonic, trend due to copper impact. It was assumed that day 28 observations, though probably still changing, were nearer stability than at day 14 and therefore more representative of natural conditions. The changes in community comparison indices showed good agreement at 28 days and reflected the general decline in species and individuals. No single community comparison index could be set apart as superior to the others. ^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Modified 3+3 design for phase I clinical trials

Phase I clinical trial is mainly designed to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of a new drug. Optimization of phase I trial design is crucial to minimize the number of enrolled patients exposed to unsafe dose levels and to provide reliable information to the later phases of clinical trials. Although it has been criticized about its inefficient MTD estimation, nowadays the traditional 3+3 method remains dominant in practice due to its simplicity and conservative estimation. There are many new designs that have been proven to generate more credible MTD estimation, such as the Continual Reassessment Method (CRM). Despite its accepted better performance, the CRM design is still not widely used in real trials. There are several factors that contribute to the difficulties of CRM adaption in practice. First, CRM is not widely accepted by the regulatory agencies such as FDA in terms of safety. It is considered to be less conservative and tend to expose more patients above the MTD level than the traditional design. Second, CRM is relatively complex and not intuitive for the clinicians to fully understand. Third, the CRM method take much more time and need statistical experts and computer programs throughout the trial. The current situation is that the clinicians still tend to follow the trial process that they are comfortable with. This situation is not likely to change in the near future. Based on this situation, we have the motivation to improve the accuracy of MTD selection while follow the procedure of the traditional design to maintain simplicity. We found that in 3+3 method, the dose transition and the MTD determination are relatively independent. Thus we proposed to separate the two stages. The dose transition rule remained the same as 3+3 method. After getting the toxicity information from the dose transition stage, we combined the isotonic transformation to ensure the monotonic increasing order before selecting the optimal MTD. To compare the operating characteristics of the proposed isotonic method and the other designs, we carried out 10,000 simulation trials under different dose setting scenarios to compare the design characteristics of the isotonic modified method with standard 3+3 method, CRM, biased coin design (BC) and k-in-a-row design (KIAW). The isotonic modified method improved MTD estimation of the standard 3+3 in 39 out of 40 scenarios. The improvement is much greater when the target is 0.3 other than 0.25. The modified design is also competitive when comparing with other selected methods. A CRM method performed better in general but was not as stable as the isotonic method throughout the different dose settings. The results demonstrated that our proposed isotonic modified method is not only easily conducted using the same procedure as 3+3 but also outperforms the conventional 3+3 design. It can also be applied to determine MTD for any given TTL. These features make the isotonic modified method of practical value in phase I clinical trials.^

Carbon and oxygen isotopic compositions of Cibicidoides spp. and fine fraction separates (<10 µm) from ODP Holes 113-689B, 119-738B, and 120-748B

A prominent middle Eocene warming event is identified in Southern Ocean deep-sea cores, indicating that long-term cooling through the middle and late Eocene was not monotonic. At sites on Maud Rise and the Kerguelen Plateau, a distinct negative shift in d18O values (~1.0 per mil) is observed ca. 41.5 Ma. This excursion is interpreted as primarily a temperature signal, with a transient warming of 4°C over 600 k.y. affecting both surface and middle-bathyal deep waters in the Indian-Atlantic region of the Southern Ocean. This isotopic event is designated as the middle Eocene climatic optimum, and is interpreted to represent a significant climatic reversal in the midst of middle to late Eocene deep-sea cooling. The lack of a significant negative carbon isotope excursion, as observed during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, and the gradual rate of high-latitude warming suggest that this event was not triggered by methane hydrate dissociation. Rather, a transient rise in pCO2 levels is suspected, possibly as a result of metamorphic decarbonation in the Himalayan orogen or increased ridge/arc volcanism during the late middle Eocene.

Chronology for the EDML ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, over the last 150 000 years

A chronology called EDML1 has been developed for the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land (EDML). EDML1 is closely interlinked with EDC3, the new chronology for the EPICA ice core from Dome-C (EDC) through a stratigraphic match between EDML and EDC that consists of 322 volcanic match points over the last 128 ka. The EDC3 chronology comprises a glaciological model at EDC, which is constrained and later selectively tuned using primary dating information from EDC as well as from EDML, the latter being transferred using the tight stratigraphic link between the two cores. Finally, EDML1 was built by exporting EDC3 to EDML. For ages younger than 41 ka BP the new synchronized time scale EDML1/EDC3 is based on dated volcanic events and on a match to the Greenlandic ice core chronology GICC05 via 10Be and methane. The internal consistency between EDML1 and EDC3 is estimated to be typically ~6 years and always less than 450 years over the last 128 ka (always less than 130 years over the last 60 ka), which reflects an unprecedented synchrony of time scales. EDML1 ends at 150 ka BP (2417 m depth) because the match between EDML and EDC becomes ambiguous further down. This hints at a complex ice flow history for the deepest 350 m of the EDML ice core.

Age models and stable isotope ratios from the Mid-Miocene

Mid-Miocene pelagic sedimentary sections can be correlated using intermediate and high resolution oxygen and carbon isotopic records of benthic foraminifera. Precision of a few tens of thousands of years is readily achievable at sites with high sedimentation rates, for example, Deep Sea Drilling Project sites 289 and 574. The mid-Miocene carbon isotope records are characterized by an interval of high d13C values between 17 and 13.5 Ma (the Monterey Excursion of Vincent and Berger 1985) upon which are superimposed a series of periodic or quasi-periodic fluctuations in d13C values. These fluctuations have a period of approximately 440 kyr, suggestive of the 413 kyr cycle predicted by Milankovitch theory. Vincent and Berger proposed that the Monterey Excursion was the result of increased organic carbon burial in continental margins sediments. The increased d13C values (called 13C maxima) superimposed on the generally high mid-Miocene signal coincide with increases in d18O values suggesting that periods of cooling and/or ice buildup were associated with exceptionally rapid burial of organic carbon and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels. It is likely that during the Monterey Excursion the ocean/atmosphere system became progressively more sensitive to small changes in insolation, ultimately leading to major cooling of deep water and expansion of continental ice. We have assigned an absolute chronology, based on biostratigraphic and magneto-biostratigraphic datum levels, to the isotope stratigraphy and have used that chronology to correlate unconformities, seismic reflectors, carbonate minima, and dissolution intervals. Intervals of sediment containing 13C maxima are usually better preserved than the overlying and underlying sediments, indicating that the d13C values of TCO2 in deep water and the corrosiveness of seawater are inversely correlated. This again suggests that the 13C maxima were associated with rapid burial of organic carbon and reduced levels of atmospheric CO2. The absolute chronology we have assigned to the isotopic record indicates that the major mid-Miocene deepwater cooling/ice volume expansion took 2 m.y. and was not abrupt as had been reported previously. The cooling appears abrupt at many sites because the interval is characterized by a number of dissolution intervals. The cooling was not monotonic, and the 2 m.y. interval included an episode of especially rapid cooling as well as a brief return to warmer conditions before the final phase of the cooling period. The increase in d18O values of benthic foraminifera between 14.9 and 12.9 Ma was greatest at deeper water sites and at sites closest to Antarctica. The data suggest that the d18O value of seawater increased by no more than about 1.1 per mil during this interval and that the remainder of the change in benthic d18O values resulted from cooling in Antarctic regions of deepwater formation. Equatorial planktonic foraminifera from sites 237 and 289 exhibit a series of 0.4 per mil steplike increases in d13C values. Only one of these increases in planktonic d13C is correlated with any of the features in the mid-Miocene benthic carbon isotope record.

Actualización del relevamiento de suelos irrigados por el río Mendoza (Argentina)

Este trabajo actualiza un relevamiento de suelos del área regada por el río Mendoza (Argentina) cuyo muestreo edáfico -el de mayor intensidad en la zona- y sus análisis se efectuaron en 1974. Con un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG) se obtuvo un mapa digital operativo que fijó los límites -o unidades cartográficas- de los suelos, conociendo la precisión de las cartografías realizadas. La información básica sobre el recurso suelo servirá de base para posteriores investigaciones; por ej. su eventual degradación por el recurso hídrico utilizado. Método para establecer las unidades cartográficas del suelo: a) Recuperación digital de 2 475 datos puntuales tabulados. La tabla suministró el identificador de los mismos (id.) y la textura y salinidad de dos capas: 0-25 y 50-80 cm. b) Transferencia cartográfica de los atributos edáficos de la tabla para vincular la cartografía con la base asociada de datos. c) Definición de las unidades cartográficas y la extensión de cada atributo mediante el método de interpolación de los polígonos de Thiessen. d) Limitación de la extensión de la interpolación a una distancia máxima de 178 m, 10 ha. e) Diseño de mapas temáticos definitivos con tabulaciones cruzadas. Dichos mapas, a escala de semi-detalle, fueron previstos para planificaciones y recomendaciones de uso a nivel regional, no parcelario.

Modelización y generación de mapas del comportamiento espacial de Sporisorium reilianum ((Kühn) Langdon y Fullerton) en Estado de México, México

El presente estudio se realizó con la finalidad de modelizar la distribución espacial del carbón de la espiga del maíz causada por Sporisorium reilianum durante 2006 en el Estado de México y su visualización a través de la generación mapas de densidad. El muestreo se realizó en 100 parcelas georreferenciadas por cada localidad analizada. La incidencia de la enfermedad (porcentaje de plantas enfermas) se determinó al establecer cinco puntos parcela, en cada punto se contabilizaron 100 plantas. Se realizó el análisis geoestadístico para estimar el semivariograma experimental, una vez obtenido, se ajustó a un modelo teórico (esférico, exponencial o gaussiano) a través de los programas Variowin 2.2., su ajuste se validó a través de la validación cruzada. Posteriormente, se elaboraron mapas de agregación de la enfermedad con el método de interpolación geoestadística o krigeado. Los resultados indicaron que la enfermedad se presentó en 20 localidades de 19 municipios del Estado de México; todas las localidades presentaron un comportamiento espacial agregado de la enfermedad, 16 localidades se ajustaron al modelo esférico, dos al modelo exponencial y dos localidades se ajustaron al modelo gaussiano. En todos los modelos se lograron establecer mapas de agregación que permitirá adecuar las acciones de manejo en términos de puntos o sitios específicos.

Accumulation rates for western Dronning Maud Land from firn cores and snow pits

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallow drilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

High resolution bathymetric compilation for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica, with links to data in ArcGIS format

The bathymetry raster with a resolution of 5 m x 5 m was processed from unpublished single beam data from the Argentine Antarctica Institute (IAA, 2010) and multibeam data from the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office (UKHO, 2012) with a cell size of 5 m x 5 m. A coastline digitized from a satellite image (DigitalGlobe, 2014) supplemented the interpolation process. The 'Topo to Raster' tool in ArcMap 10.3 was used to merge the three data sets, while the coastline represented the 0-m-contour to the interpolation process ('contour type option').

Contusotruncana contusa abundances and morphotypes in the cretaceous mid-latitude South Atlantic

Spatial and temporal patterns in test size and shape (test conicity and spiral roundness) and absolute abundance (accumulation rate) of the planktonic foraminifer Contusotruncana contusa were studied in the South Atlantic Ocean (DSDP sites 356, 516, 525 and 527) during an interval corresponding to the last 800 kyr of the Cretaceous. The variation in absolute abundance of C. contusa was characterised by alternating periods of high and low abundance; some of these periods were traceable across the entire mid-latitude South Atlantic Ocean. While the mean spiral roundness did not show any interpretable patterns, a sudden increase of the mean test size and mean test conicity occurred between 65.3 and 65.2 Ma (based on linear interpolation within the Cretaceous part of Subchron C29R) at all sites studied, indicating a poleward migration followed by rapid withdrawal of the low-latitude C. contusa morphotypes from the mid-latitude South Atlantic Ocean. We suggest that this event was caused by a short period of surface-water warming in the southern mid-latitudes corresponding to the brief high-latitude warming event and associated faunal migrations in the Boreal and Austral realms.

Nota complementaria a "La escritura proverbial de Santillana"

Este trabajo se propone complementar el artículo de Miguel Ángel Pérez Priego, "La escritura proverbial de Santillana" (1992), en el que aborda la cuestión desde la variación estilística que significaron los Proverbios o Centiloquio en la producción poética del Marqués de Santillana. Al inscribir el poema en la categoría genérica del proverbio, Pérez Priego reconoce las características propias de la escritura proverbial en el texto de Santillana, al mismo tiempo que destaca el uso estilístico diferenciado de proverbios y refranes según los tipos de poemas que los contienen. A partir del estudio de la interpolación de paremias en sus poesías doctrinales más extensas, en composiciones líricas representativas y en textos prosísticos, podemos aportar otro aspecto distintivo del discurso proverbial del poeta: la confluencia de la tradición paremiológica medieval y de nuevos paradigmas humanistas. Esto es resultado de la vasta erudición y conocimiento de la Antigüedad clásica, así como del continuo interés por la cultura popular, que caracterizan la obra y formación del Marqués de Santillana

El Test de Ramsey y las lógicas condicionales

Frank Ramsey (1931) estableció ciertas condiciones que deberían cumplirse a fin de evaluar las proposiciones condicionales, conocidas hoy como Test de Ramsey (TR) En este trabajo se muestra que las teorías sobre condicionales contrafácticos de Chisholmj, Stalnaker y D. Lewis, satisfacen el TR y la incompatibilidad de TR con la Teoría de la revisión de creencias (AGM). En la última sección se analiza el comportamiento del TR en la propuesta de G. Grocco y L. Fariñas del Cerro, basada en una generalización del cálculo de Secuentes pero introduciendo la novedad de secuencias auxiliares cuya noción de consecuencia es no-monótona.

Paleomagnetic of ODP Hole 133-823A

Hole 823A covers the upper 120 m (Subunits IA and IB) of Site 823 at the bottom of the Queensland Trough. This hole contains an abundance of gravity-flow deposits, but is thought to have a monotonic age sequence. Above 32 mbsf, a strong, stable (normal) magnetic remanence having a relatively small viscous remanent magnetization (VRM) is seen. Below 32 mbsf, the sediments are subject to widespread VRM, which appears to obliterate the primary magnetization and precludes identification of the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary. Progressive alternating field (AF) demagnetization is limited to low fields (typically <400 Oe) by the weak magnetization in these sediments. As a consequence, the possibility of a high-coercivity component of primary magnetization cannot be ruled out. Lowrie-Fuller tests indicate that this VRM overprinting does not have a multidomain origin. An approximately linear relationship exists between median destructive field (MDF) and the logarithm of the natural remanent magnetization (NRM). Carbonate dilution does not appear to be a dominant factor in controlling variations in concentration-dependent magnetic parameters, such as magnetic susceptibility. The sedimentological distinction between Subunits IA and IB does not show up in the magnetic record. However, a sharp change in magnetic properties does occur at 32 mbsf, with low background magnetizations below this level and high background magnetizations above it. The boundary coincides with a change from thick (>10 cm thick) to thin (<10 cm thick) turbidite deposition, and is also near the boundary separating the sulfate-reduction zone in the upper part of the sequence from the sulfate-free zone beneath. The abrupt nature of the magnetic boundary is evidence that nannofossil subzone CN14b is not condensed, but is missing in a hiatus at 32 mbsf. Nine peaks have been identified in the susceptibility (K) record that are superimposed on ôbackgroundö signals. ARM/K ratios are uniformly low for the background sediments below 32 mbsf, intermediate for strong susceptibility peaks, and high for background sediments above 32 mbsf and weak susceptibility peaks. Comparisons with results from Site 820 suggest that (1) the background sediments above 32 mbsf and the weak susceptibility peaks carry a stable single-domain magnetization, and (2) the high susceptibility peaks are caused by the addition of a superparamagnetic contribution. Expectations are that the distinctive features of the Hole 823A magnetic record are linked to major environmental changes.