809 resultados para Model selection criteria


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In the light of the twofold mission of Swedish schools, that is to say enabling pupils to develop both subject knowledge and a democratic attitude, the purpose of this thesis is to investigate to what extent adult higher education students from different language and social backgrounds, studying Swedish as a second language, are able to carry out joint writing assignments with the aid of deliberative discourse, and to what extent they thereby also develop a deliberative attitude. The twofold mission of education applies to them too. While there already exists a certain amount of research into deliberative discourse relating to education in schools, the perspective of higher education didactics in this research is still lacking. The present study is to be viewed as a first contribution to this research. The theoretical starting point of this study includes previous research into deliberative discourse by further developing an existing model regarding criteria for deliberative discourse, for example that there is a striving towards agreement, although the consensus may be temporary, that diverging opinions can be set against each other, that tolerance and respect for views other than one’s own are shown, and that traditional outlooks can be questioned. This model is supplemented by designations for a number of disruptive behaviours, such as ridiculing, ignoring, interrupting people and engaging in private conversations. The thus further developed model will thereafter act as a lens in the analysis of students’ discussions when writing joint texts. Another theoretical starting point is the view of education as communication, and of the possibility of communication creating a third place, thereby developing democracy in the here and now-situation. For this study, comprising 18 hours of observation of nine students, that is to say the discussions of three groups in connection with writing texts on different occasions, various ethnographic data collection methods have been employed, for example video recordings, participant observations, field notes and interviews in conjunction with the discussions. The analysis clarifies that the three groups developed their deliberation as the discussions about the joint assignment proceeded, and that most of the nine students furthermore expressed at least an openness towards a deliberative attitude for further discussions in the future. The disruptive behaviours mentioned in connection with the analytical model that could be identified in the discussions, for example interruptions and private conversations, proved not to constitute real disturbances; on the contrary they actually contributed towards the discussions developing, enabling them to continue. On the other hand, other and not previously identified disturbances occurred, for example a focus on grades, the lack of time and lacking language ability, which all in different ways affected the students’ attitudes towards their work. For any future didactical work on deliberative discourse in Swedish as a second language within higher education, these disturbances would need to be highlighted and made aware of for both teachers and students. Keywords: higher education didactics, communication, deliberative discourse, deliberative attitude, John Dewey, Tomas Englund, heterogeneity, ethnographic data collection methods.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

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Ce mémoire s’intéresse à l’étude du critère de validation croisée pour le choix des modèles relatifs aux petits domaines. L’étude est limitée aux modèles de petits domaines au niveau des unités. Le modèle de base des petits domaines est introduit par Battese, Harter et Fuller en 1988. C’est un modèle de régression linéaire mixte avec une ordonnée à l’origine aléatoire. Il se compose d’un certain nombre de paramètres : le paramètre β de la partie fixe, la composante aléatoire et les variances relatives à l’erreur résiduelle. Le modèle de Battese et al. est utilisé pour prédire, lors d’une enquête, la moyenne d’une variable d’intérêt y dans chaque petit domaine en utilisant une variable auxiliaire administrative x connue sur toute la population. La méthode d’estimation consiste à utiliser une distribution normale, pour modéliser la composante résiduelle du modèle. La considération d’une dépendance résiduelle générale, c’est-à-dire autre que la loi normale donne une méthodologie plus flexible. Cette généralisation conduit à une nouvelle classe de modèles échangeables. En effet, la généralisation se situe au niveau de la modélisation de la dépendance résiduelle qui peut être soit normale (c’est le cas du modèle de Battese et al.) ou non-normale. L’objectif est de déterminer les paramètres propres aux petits domaines avec le plus de précision possible. Cet enjeu est lié au choix de la bonne dépendance résiduelle à utiliser dans le modèle. Le critère de validation croisée sera étudié à cet effet.

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Single Incision Laparoscopic Surgery (SILS) is a recent surgical technique, first described in the 1990s. Its aim is to optimize the esthetic result offered by laparoscopy by minimizing the number of abdominal incisions. Various preliminary studies have been carried out on the application of SILS, especially in cholecystectomy and appendectomy. This study evaluates the preliminary results of cholecystectomy by SILS (SILS™ Port) conducted between October 2009 and February 2011 on 21 patients (4 men and 17 women) with a mean age of 49.9 years and a mean Body Mass Index (BMI) of 22.8. All patients were treated by the same team, which had previously undergone six months’ simulator training. There were two main selection criteria, both evaluated intraoperatively: absence of adhesions and of significant inflammatory sequelae from previous cholecystitis; and suitable distance between gallbladder and SILS access port. Conversion to traditional laparoscopy was necessary in just two cases, while an accessory trocar was introduced in another two cases. Conversion to open surgery was not necessary in any case. One case of SILS cholecystectomy was complicated by postoperative bile leakage, which was treated conservatively, as the fistula had a low output. The mean duration of hospitalization was 3.6 days. This preliminary experience led us to conclude that SILS is safe and highly satisfactory in the postoperative phase, thanks to the reduced need for painkillers and the improved esthetic result.

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To design strategies for the conservation and use of genetic resources of tree species such as jaboticaba tree, it is essential to make the characterization. In southwestern Paraná region, there are several forest fragments containing native jaboticaba tree (Plinia cauliflora), whose materials have broad potential for commercial orchards or breeding programs. As is the potential genetic diversity of a population to produce different genotypes, it would be able to start in such a characterization one of these fragments. The aim was to characterize fruits of jaboticaba tree (P. caulifora) of forest fragment kept in Clevelândia - PR for the presence of phenotypic variability, seeking to identify those superiors named for future selection as farming or male parent, as well as estimate genetic divergence between them, as a complementary tool for this purpose. Also, verify the regeneration and spatial distribution of the species. For the study was defined portion of a hectare (10.000 m²), with all individuals identified, mapped, with local coordinate system, and measured height and diameter. Fruits were characterized by sensory and biochemical characteristics in two years, 70 genotypes at 2013 and 56 at 2014, and of these 33 genotypes in both years. As a pre-selection criteria was adopted the choice of 20% of the genotypes that showed the highest frequency of superiority in the evaluated characteristics of the fruit. Genetic divergence among 33 genotypes per year was analyzed. The distribution pattern and spatial association was evaluated by Ripley's K function. It was classified for the first time the following ontogenetic stages of jaboticaba tree, by plant height, seedling (from 0.01 to 0.99 m), juvenile (1.0 to 4.99 m), immature (> 5.0 m, non-reproductive), adult (reproductive). It was also have been describe for the first time the naturally occurring juxtaposed seedlings, indicating polyembryony. The number of regenerating identified in the population (seedlings: n = 2163; juveniles: n = 330; immature: n = 59) was much larger than the number of adults (n = 132). The species showed reverse J-shaped size structure standard, with high concentration of regenerating. The regeneration distribution occurs in aggregate pattern and there is seedling-adult dependence, due seed dispersal and seedling emergence closest to mothers. The jaboticaba tree regeneration is sufficient to maintain the species for long term in this population, which should serve as reference to regeneration success for other studies of this important fruiting species from Ombrofile Mixed Forests. Has been pre-selected the jaboticaba trees 7, 42, 43, 47, 54, 91, 97, 104, 105, 118, 134, 153, 154, 157, 163, 169, 177, 186, 212, J7-01 and J7- 02, and 16 and 194 the ones that can now be selected by the superior characteristics of both cycles. It was recommended to carry out hybridization between genotypes 79 and 119, and 96 to 148. The quality of fruit analyzed showed potential for use as a dual purpose serving both in natura market or processing.

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Background It is unclear how dysphagic patients should be fed and treated after acute stroke. Objectives The objective of this review was to assess the effect of different management strategies for dysphagic stroke patients, in particular how and when to feed, whether to supplement nutritional intake, and how and whether to treat dysphagia. Search strategy We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group trials register, Medline, Embase, ISI, and existing review articles.We contacted researchers in the field and equipment manufacturers. Date of the most recent searches: March 1999. Selection criteria Unconfounded truly or quasi randomised controlled trials in dysphagic patients with acute/subacute (within 3 months) stroke. Data collection and analysis Three reviewers independently applied the trial inclusion criteria. Two reviewers assessed trial quality and extracted the data. Main results Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) versus nasogastric tube (NGT) feeding: two trials (49 patients) suggest that PEG reduces end-of-trial case fatality (Peto Odds Ratio, OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.89) and treatment failures (OR 0.10, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.52), and improves nutritional status, assessed as weight (Weighted Men Difference, WMD +4.1 kg, 95% CI -4.3 to +12.5), mid-arm circumference (WMD +2.2 cm, 95% CI -0.5 to +4.9) or serum albumin (WMD + 7.0 g/l, 95% CI +4.9 to +9.1) as compared with NGT feeding; two larger studies are ongoing. Timing of feeding: no completed trials; one large study is ongoing. Swallowing therapy for dysphagia: two trials (85 patients) suggest that formal swallowing therapy does not significantly reduce end-of-trial dysphagia rates (OR 0.55, 95%CI 0.18 to 1.66). Drug therapy for dysphagia: one trial (17 patients); nifedipine did not alter end-of-trial case fatality or the frequency of dysphagia. Nutritional supplementation: one trial (42 patients) found a non-significant trend to a lower case fatality, and significantly increased energy and protein intake; one large trial is ongoing and data is awaited from two other studies. Fluid supplementation: one trial (20 patients) found that supplementation did not alter the time to resolution of dysphagia. Authors’ conclusions Too few studies have been performed, and these have involved too few patients. PEG feeding may improve outcome and nutrition as compared with NGT feeding. Further research is required to assess how and when patients are fed, and the effect of swallowing or drug therapy on dysphagia.

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The injectivity, containment and storage capacity of sandstone reservoirs in a field in the Coastal Swamp depobelt of the onshore eastern Niger Delta were evaluated using wireline logs and seismic data to assess their potentials for carbon dioxide storage and geosequestration. The reservoir formation consists of multilayered alternating beds of sandstone and shale cap rocks. Active seismicity and fracturing intensity are low and growth faults provide the reservoir sealing mechanisms. Three reservoirs were delineated at depths between 3319 m and 3539 m which will keep injected CO2 in a supercritical state. The reservoir depth of at least 800 m, porosity and permeability of more than 10 percent and 20 mD, and a caprock thickness of at least 10 m, in addition to geothermal gradients of 13.46 to 33.66 ºC /km are the ideal conditions for the efficacy of storage. Comparison of the derived reservoir and seal properties such as porosity, permeability, thickness and depth with the minimum recommended site selection criteria shows that the reservoirs are potential candidates for carbon geosequestration with a total theoretical storage capacity of 147MM tons.

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Cette thèse développe des méthodes bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs qui sont couram- ment utilisés pour générer des prévisions depuis l'article pionnier de Stock et Watson (2002) sur les indices de diffusion. Ces modèles tolèrent l'inclusion d'un grand nombre de variables macroéconomiques et financières comme prédicteurs, une caractéristique utile pour inclure di- verses informations disponibles aux agents économiques. Ma thèse propose donc des outils éco- nométriques qui améliorent l'inférence dans les modèles à facteurs utilisant des facteurs latents extraits d'un large panel de prédicteurs observés. Il est subdivisé en trois chapitres complémen- taires dont les deux premiers en collaboration avec Sílvia Gonçalves et Benoit Perron. Dans le premier article, nous étudions comment les méthodes bootstrap peuvent être utilisées pour faire de l'inférence dans les modèles de prévision pour un horizon de h périodes dans le futur. Pour ce faire, il examine l'inférence bootstrap dans un contexte de régression augmentée de facteurs où les erreurs pourraient être autocorrélées. Il généralise les résultats de Gonçalves et Perron (2014) et propose puis justifie deux approches basées sur les résidus : le block wild bootstrap et le dependent wild bootstrap. Nos simulations montrent une amélioration des taux de couverture des intervalles de confiance des coefficients estimés en utilisant ces approches comparativement à la théorie asymptotique et au wild bootstrap en présence de corrélation sérielle dans les erreurs de régression. Le deuxième chapitre propose des méthodes bootstrap pour la construction des intervalles de prévision permettant de relâcher l'hypothèse de normalité des innovations. Nous y propo- sons des intervalles de prédiction bootstrap pour une observation h périodes dans le futur et sa moyenne conditionnelle. Nous supposons que ces prévisions sont faites en utilisant un ensemble de facteurs extraits d'un large panel de variables. Parce que nous traitons ces facteurs comme latents, nos prévisions dépendent à la fois des facteurs estimés et les coefficients de régres- sion estimés. Sous des conditions de régularité, Bai et Ng (2006) ont proposé la construction d'intervalles asymptotiques sous l'hypothèse de Gaussianité des innovations. Le bootstrap nous permet de relâcher cette hypothèse et de construire des intervalles de prédiction valides sous des hypothèses plus générales. En outre, même en supposant la Gaussianité, le bootstrap conduit à des intervalles plus précis dans les cas où la dimension transversale est relativement faible car il prend en considération le biais de l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires comme le montre une étude récente de Gonçalves et Perron (2014). Dans le troisième chapitre, nous suggérons des procédures de sélection convergentes pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs en échantillons finis. Nous démontrons premièrement que la méthode de validation croisée usuelle est non-convergente mais que sa généralisation, la validation croisée «leave-d-out» sélectionne le plus petit ensemble de facteurs estimés pour l'espace généré par les vraies facteurs. Le deuxième critère dont nous montrons également la validité généralise l'approximation bootstrap de Shao (1996) pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs. Les simulations montrent une amélioration de la probabilité de sélectionner par- cimonieusement les facteurs estimés comparativement aux méthodes de sélection disponibles. L'application empirique revisite la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et financiers, et l'excès de rendement sur le marché boursier américain. Parmi les facteurs estimés à partir d'un large panel de données macroéconomiques et financières des États Unis, les facteurs fortement correlés aux écarts de taux d'intérêt et les facteurs de Fama-French ont un bon pouvoir prédictif pour les excès de rendement.

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Los mercados asociados a los servicios de voz móvil a móvil, brindados por operadoras del Sistema Móvil Avanzado en Latinoamérica, han estado sujetos a procesos regulatorios motivados por la dominancia en el mercado de un operador, buscando obtener óptimas condiciones de competencia. Específicamente en Ecuador, la Superintendencia de Telecomunicaciones (Organismo Técnico de Control de Telecomunicaciones) desarrolló un modelo para identificar acciones de regulación que puedan proporcionar al mercado efectos sostenibles de competencia en el largo plazo. Este artículo trata sobre la aplicación de la ingeniería de control para desarrollar un modelo integral del mercado, empleando redes neuronales para la predicción de trarifas de cada operador y un modelo de lógica difusa para predecir la demanda. Adicionalmente, se presenta un modelo de inferencia de lógica difusa para reproducir las estrategias de mercadeo de los operadores y la influencia sobre las tarifas. Dichos modelos permitirían la toma adecuada de decisiones y fueron validados con datos reales.

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The aim of our research is to investigate a company’s purchasing and manufacturing competitive priorities jointly in order to uncover any relationships between them and also their effect on the supply chain tools implemented by the company. We assume that the supplier selection criteria of the companies reflect the true goals of the purchasing function and we take the purchasing function’s point of view to examine the aforementioned relationships. We use a multinational database for our empirical analysis which contains almost 700 companies from 20 countries and data that were acquired in 2009. We identified four different clusters which reflect a different level of supply chain tool implementation.

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Salmonella is distributed worldwide and is a pathogen of economic and public health importance. As a multi-host pathogen with a long environmental persistence, it is a suitable model for the study of wildlife-livestock interactions. In this work, we aim to explore the spill-over of Salmonella between free-ranging wild boar and livestock in a protected natural area in NE Spain and the presence of antimicrobial resistance. Salmonella prevalence, serotypes and diversity were compared between wild boars, sympatric cattle and wild boars from cattle-free areas. The effect of age, sex, cattle presence and cattle herd size on Salmonella probability of infection in wild boars was explored by means of Generalized Linear Models and a model selection based on the Akaike's Information Criterion. Prevalence was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle (35.67%, CI 95% 28.19-43.70) than in wild boar from cattle-free areas (17.54%, CI 95% 8.74-29.91). Probability of a wild boar being a Salmonella carrier increased with cattle herd size but decreased with the host age. Serotypes Meleagridis, Anatum and Othmarschen were isolated concurrently from cattle and sympatric wild boars. Apart from serotypes shared with cattle, wild boars appear to have their own serotypes, which are also found in wild boars from cattle-free areas (Enteritidis, Mikawasima, 4:b:- and 35:r:z35). Serotype richness (diversity) was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle, but evenness was not altered by the introduction of serotypes from cattle. The finding of a S. Mbandaka strain resistant to sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin and chloramphenicol and a S. Enteritidis strain resistant to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in wild boars is cause for public health concern.

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Background Pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) is a commonly used physical therapy for women with urinary incontinence (UI). Objectives To determine the effects of PFMT for women with UI in comparison to no treatment, placebo or other inactive control treatments. Search Methods Cochrane Incontinence Group Specialized Register, (searched 15 April 2013). Selection Criteria Randomized or quasi-randomized trials in women with stress, urgency or mixed UI (based on symptoms, signs, or urodynamics). Data Collection and Analysis At least two independent review authors carried out trial screening, selection, risk of bias assessment and data abstraction. Trials were subgrouped by UI diagnosis. The quality of evidence was assessed by adopting the (GRADE) approach. Results Twenty-one trials (1281 women) were included; 18 trials (1051 women) contributed data to the meta-analysis. In women with stress UI, there was high quality evidence that PFMT is associated with cure (RR 8.38; 95% CI 3.68 to 19.07) and moderate quality evidence of cure or improvement (RR 17.33; 95% CI 4.31 to 69.64). In women with any type of UI, there was also moderate quality evidence that PFMT is associated with cure (RR 5.5; 95% CI 2.87–10.52), or cure and improvement (RR 2.39; 95% CI 1.64–3.47). Conclusions The addition of seven new trials did not change the essential findings of the earlier version of this review. In this iteration, using the GRADE quality criteria strengthened the recommendations for PFMT and a wider range of secondary outcomes (also generally in favor of PFMT) were reported.

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We measured the distribution in absolute magnitude - circular velocity space for a well-defined sample of 199 rotating galaxies of the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area Survey (CALIFA) using their stellar kinematics. Our aim in this analysis is to avoid subjective selection criteria and to take volume and large-scale structure factors into account. Using stellar velocity fields instead of gas emission line kinematics allows including rapidly rotating early-type galaxies. Our initial sample contains 277 galaxies with available stellar velocity fields and growth curve r-band photometry. After rejecting 51 velocity fields that could not be modelled because of the low number of bins, foreground contamination, or significant interaction, we performed Markov chain Monte Carlo modelling of the velocity fields, from which we obtained the rotation curve and kinematic parameters and their realistic uncertainties. We performed an extinction correction and calculated the circular velocity v_circ accounting for the pressure support of a given galaxy. The resulting galaxy distribution on the M-r - v(circ) plane was then modelled as a mixture of two distinct populations, allowing robust and reproducible rejection of outliers, a significant fraction of which are slow rotators. The selection effects are understood well enough that we were able to correct for the incompleteness of the sample. The 199 galaxies were weighted by volume and large-scale structure factors, which enabled us to fit a volume-corrected Tully-Fisher relation (TFR). More importantly, we also provide the volume-corrected distribution of galaxies in the M_r - v_circ plane, which can be compared with cosmological simulations. The joint distribution of the luminosity and circular velocity space densities, representative over the range of -20 > M_r > -22 mag, can place more stringent constraints on the galaxy formation and evolution scenarios than linear TFR fit parameters or the luminosity function alone.