Post-switching beta synchronization reveals concomitant sensory reafferences and active inhibition processes

It is known that post-movement beta synchronization (PMBS) is involved both in active inhibition and in sensory reafferences processes. The aim of this study was examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of the PMBS involved during multi-limb coordination task. We investigated post-switching beta synchronization (assigned PMBS) using time-frequency and source estimations analyzes. Participants (n = 17) initiated an auditory-paced bimanual tapping. After a 1500 ms preparatory period, an imperative stimulus required to either selectively stop the left while maintaining the right unimanual tapping (Switch condition: SWIT) or to continue the bimanual tapping (Continue condition: CONT). PMBS significantly increased in SWIT compared to CONT with maximal difference within right central region in broad-band 14âeuro"30 Hz and within left central region in restricted-band 22âeuro"26 Hz. Source estimations localized these effects within right pre-frontal cortex and left parietal cortex, respectively. A negative correlation showed that participants with a low percentage of errors in SWIT had a large PMBS amplitude within right parietal and frontal cortices. This study shows for the first time simultaneous PMBS with distinct functions in different brain regions and frequency ranges. The left parietal PMBS restricted to 22âeuro"26 Hz could reflect the sensory reafferences of the right hand tapping disrupted by the switching. In contrast, the right pre-frontal PMBS in a broad-band 14âeuro"30 Hz is likely reflecting the active inhibition of the left hand stopped. Finally, correlations between behavioral performance and the magnitude of the PMBS suggest that beta oscillations can be viewed as a marker of successful active inhibition.

Comparative phylogeography in a specific and obligate pollination antagonism.

In specific and obligate interactions the nature and abundance of a given species can have important effects on the survival and population dynamics of associated organisms. In a phylogeographic framework, we therefore expect that the fates of organisms interacting specifically are also tightly interrelated. Here we investigate such a scenario by analyzing the genetic structures of species interacting in an obligate plant-insect pollination lure-and-trap antagonism, involving Arum maculatum (Araceae) and its specific psychodid (Diptera) visitors Psychoda phalaenoides and Psycha grisescens. Because the interaction is asymmetric (i.e., only the plant depends on the insect), we expect the genetic structure of the plant to be related with the historical pollinator availability, yielding incongruent phylogeographic patterns between the interacting organisms.Using insect mtDNA sequences and plant AFLP genome fingerprinting, we inferred the large-scale phylogeographies of each species and the distribution of genetic diversities throughout the sampled range, and evaluated the congruence in their respective genetic structures using hierarchical analyses of molecular variances (AMOVA). Because the composition of pollinator species varies in Europe, we also examined its association with the spatial genetic structure of the plant.Our findings indicate that while the plant presents a spatially well-defined genetic structure, this is not the case in the insects. Patterns of genetic diversities also show dissimilar distributions among the three interacting species. Phylogeographic histories of the plant and its pollinating insects are thus not congruent, a result that would indicate that plant and insect lineages do not share the same glacial and postglacial histories. However, the genetic structure of the plant can, at least partially, be explained by the type of pollinators available at a regional scale. Differences in life-history traits of available pollinators might therefore have influenced the genetic structure of the plant, the dependent organism, in this antagonistic interaction.

Dynamics of Highway Bridges, Iowa Highway Research Board Bulletin 17, 1960

Joint Publications from Iowa Engineering Experiment Station - Bulletin No. 188 and Iowa Highway Research Board - Bulletin No. 17. In the design of highway bridges, the 'static live load is multiplied by a factor to compensate for the dynamic effect of moving vehicles. This factor, commonly referred to as an impact factor, is intended to provide for the dynamic response of the bridge to moving loads and suddenly applied forces. Many investigators have published research which contradicts the current impact formula 1,4,17. Some investigators feel that the problem of impact deals not only with the increase in over-all static live load but that it is an integral part of a dynamic load distribution problem. The current expanded highway program with the large number of bridge structures required emphasizes the need for investigating some of the dynamic behavior problems which have been generally ignored by highway engineers. These problems generally result from the inability of a designer to predict the dynamic response of a bridge structure. Many different investigations have been made of particular portions of the overall dynamic problem. The results of these varied investigations are inevitably followed by a number of unanswered questions. Ironically, many of the unanswered questions are those which are of immediate concern in the design of highway bridges, and this emphasizes the need for additional research on the problem of impact.

Effects of nutrients and turbulence on the production of transparent exopolymer particles: a mesocosm study

The production of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) in response to several environmental variables was studied in 2 mesocosm experiments. The first (Expt 1) examined a gradient of 4 nutrient levels; the second (Expt 2) examined different conditions of silicate availability and zooplankton presence. Tanks were separated in 2 series, one subjected to turbulence and the other not influenced by turbulence. In tanks with nutrient addition, TEP were rapidly formed, with net apparent production rates closely linked to chl a growth rates, suggesting that phytoplankton cells were actively exuding TEP precursors. High nutrient availability increased the absolute concentration of TEP; however, the relative quantity of TEP produced was found to be lower, as TEP concentration per unit of phytoplankton biomass was inversely related to the initial nitrate dose. In Expt 1, an increase in TEP volume (3 to 48 µm equivalent spherical diameter) with nutrient dose was observed; in Expt 2, both silicate addition and turbulence enhanced TEP production and favored aggregation to larger TEP (>48 µm). The presence of zooplankton lowered TEP concentration and changed the size distribution of TEP, presumably by grazing on TEP or phytoplankton. For lower nutrient concentrations, the ratio of particulate organic carbon (POC) to particulate organic nitrogen (PON) followed the Redfield ratio. At higher nutrient conditions, when nutrients were exhausted during the post-bloom, a decoupling of carbon and nitrogen dynamics occurred and was correlated to TEP formation, with a large flow of carbon channeled toward the TEP pool in turbulent tanks. TEP accounted for an increase in POC concentration of 50% in high-nutrient and turbulent conditions. The study of TEP dynamics is crucial to understanding the biogeochemical response of the aquatic system to forcing variables such as nutrient availability and turbulence intensity.

A matter of time: delayed mate encounter postpones mating window initiation and reduces the strength of female choosiness

Reproductive success is determined by the presence and timing of encounter of mates. The latter depends on species-specific reproductive characteristics (e.g. initiation/duration of the mating window), season, and reproductive strategies (e.g. intensity of choosiness) that may potentially mitigate constraints imposed by mating windows. Despite their potentially crucial role for fitness and population dynamics, limited evidence exists about mating window initiation, duration and reproductive strategies. Here, we experimentally tested the mechanisms of initiation and the duration of the common lizard's Zootoca vivipara mating window, by manipulating the timing of mate encounter and analyzing its effect on (re-)mating probability. We furthermore tested treatment effects on female reproductive strategies, by measuring female choosiness. The timing of mate encounter and season did not significantly affect mating probability. However, a longer delay until mate encounter reduced female choosiness. Re-mating probability decreased with re-mating delay and was independent of mating delay. This indicates that mating window initiation depends on mate encounter, that its duration is fixed, and that plastic reproductive strategies exist. These findings contrast with previous beliefs and shows that mating windows per se may not necessarily constrain reproductive success, which is congruent with rapid range expansion and absence of positive density-effects on reproductive success (Allee effects). In summary, our results show that predicting the effect of mating windows on reproduction is complex and that experimental evidence is essential for evaluating their effect on reproduction and reproductive strategies, both being important determinants of population dynamics and the colonization of new habitats.

A quantitative analysis of L-glutamate-regulated Na+ dynamics in mouse cortical astrocytes: implications for cellular bioenergetics.

The mode of Na+ entry and the dynamics of intracellular Na+ concentration ([Na+]i) changes consecutive to the application of the neurotransmitter glutamate were investigated in mouse cortical astrocytes in primary culture by video fluorescence microscopy. An elevation of [Na+]i was evoked by glutamate, whose amplitude and initial rate were concentration dependent. The glutamate-evoked Na+ increase was primarily due to Na+-glutamate cotransport, as inhibition of non-NMDA ionotropic receptors by 6-cyano-7-nitroquinoxiline-2,3-dione (CNQX) only weakly diminished the response and D-aspartate, a substrate of the glutamate transporter, produced [Na+]i elevations similar to those evoked by glutamate. Non-NMDA receptor activation could nevertheless be demonstrated by preventing receptor desensitization using cyclothiazide. Thus, in normal conditions non-NMDA receptors do not contribute significantly to the glutamate-evoked Na+ response. The rate of Na+ influx decreased during glutamate application, with kinetics that correlate well with the increase in [Na+]i and which depend on the extracellular concentration of glutamate. A tight coupling between Na+ entry and Na+/K+ ATPase activity was revealed by the massive [Na+]i increase evoked by glutamate when pump activity was inhibited by ouabain. During prolonged glutamate application, [Na+]i remains elevated at a new steady-state where Na+ influx through the transporter matches Na+ extrusion through the Na+/K+ ATPase. A mathematical model of the dynamics of [Na+]i homeostasis is presented which precisely defines the critical role of Na+ influx kinetics in the establishment of the elevated steady state and its consequences on the cellular bioenergetics. Indeed, extracellular glutamate concentrations of 10 microM already markedly increase the energetic demands of the astrocytes.

Sea state effect on the sea surface emissivity at L-band

In May 1999, the European Space Agency (ESA) selected the Earth Explorer Opportunity Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission to obtain global and frequent soil moisture and ocean salinity maps. SMOS' single payload is the Microwave Imaging Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS), an L-band two-dimensional aperture synthesis radiometer with multiangular observation capabilities. At L-band, the brightness temperature sensitivity to the sea surface salinity (SSS) is low, approximately 0.5 K/psu at 20/spl deg/C, decreasing to 0.25 K/psu at 0/spl deg/C, comparable to that to the wind speed /spl sim/0.2 K/(m/s) at nadir. However, at a given time, the sea state does not depend only on local winds, but on the local wind history and the presence of waves traveling from far distances. The Wind and Salinity Experiment (WISE) 2000 and 2001 campaigns were sponsored by ESA to determine the impact of oceanographic and atmospheric variables on the L-band brightness temperature at vertical and horizontal polarizations. This paper presents the results of the analysis of three nonstationary sea state conditions: growing and decreasing sea, and the presence of swell. Measured sea surface spectra are compared with the theoretical ones, computed using the instantaneous wind speed. Differences can be minimized using an "effective wind speed" that makes the theoretical spectrum best match the measured one. The impact on the predicted brightness temperatures is then assessed using the small slope approximation/small perturbation method (SSA/SPM).

A model of the wind direction signature in the Stokes emission vector from the ocean surface at microwave frequencies

This paper presents a model of the Stokes emission vector from the ocean surface. The ocean surface is described as an ensemble of facets with Cox and Munk's (1954) Gram-Charlier slope distribution. The study discusses the impact of different up-wind and cross-wind rms slopes, skewness, peakedness, foam cover models and atmospheric effects on the azimuthal variation of the Stokes vector, as well as the limitations of the model. Simulation results compare favorably, both in mean value and azimuthal dependence, with SSM/I data at 53° incidence angle and with JPL's WINDRAD measurements at incidence angles from 30° to 65°, and at wind speeds from 2.5 to 11 m/s.

0 AND 02 ADSORPTION ON Ag/Cu[100]

In this work the adsorption mechanisms of atomic and molecular oxygen on Cu(100) surface are studied using ab initio simulation methods. Through the atomistic scale under-standing of the elementary oxidation processes we can further understand the large-scale oxidation. Copper is a material widely used in industry which makes it an interesting subject, and also understanding the oxidation of copper helps us understand the oxidation mechanism of other metals. First we have a look on some theory on surface alloys in general and behaviour of Ag on Cu(100) surface. After that the physical background there is behind the methods of density functional calculations are discussed, and some methods, namely potential energy surfaces and molecular dynamics, are introduced. Then there is a brief look on the numerical details used in the calculations, and after that, the results of the simulations are exhibited.

Climate change and future scenarios for palisade grass production in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

The objective of this work was to analyze future scenarios for palisade grass yield subjected to climate change for the state of São Paulo, Brazil. An empirical crop model was used to estimate yields, according to growing degree-days adjusted by one drought attenuation factor. Climate data from 1963 to 2009 of 23 meteorological stations were used for current climate conditions. Downscaled outputs of two general circulation models were used to project future climate for the 2013-2040 and 2043-2070 periods, considering two contrasting scenarios of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration increase (high and low). Annual dry matter yield should be from 14 to 42% higher than the current one, depending on the evaluated scenario. Yield variation between seasons (seasonality) and years is expected to increase. The increase of dry matter accumulation will be higher in the rainy season than in the dry season, and this result is more evident for soils with low-water storage capacity. The results varied significantly between regions (<10% to >60%). Despite their higher climate potential, warmer regions will probably have a lower increase in future forage production.

Migration and information flows. A new lens for the study of contemporary international migration

Aquest document de treball mira d'establir un nou camp d'investigació a la cruïlla entre els fluxos de migració i d'informació i comunicació. Hi ha diversos factors que fan que valgui la pena adoptar aquesta perspectiva. El punt central és que la migració internacional contemporània és incrustada en la dinàmica de la societat de la informació, seguint models comuns i dinàmiques interconnectades. Per consegüent, s'està començant a identificar els fluxos d'informació com a qüestions clau en les polítiques de migració. A més, hi ha una manca de coneixement empíric en el disseny de xarxes d'informació i l'ús de les tecnologies d'informació i comunicació en contextos migratoris. Aquest document de treball també mira de ser una font d'hipòtesis per a investigacions posteriors.

Evolution of superficial lake water temperature profile under diurnal radiative forcing

In lentic water bodies, such as lakes, the water temperature near the surface typically increases during the day, and decreases during the night as a consequence of the diurnal radiative forcing (solar and infrared radiation). These temperature variations penetrate vertically into the water, transported mainly by heat conduction enhanced by eddy diffusion, which may vary due to atmospheric conditions, surface wave breaking, and internal dynamics of the water body. These two processes can be described in terms of an effective thermal diffusivity, which can be experimentally estimated. However, the transparency of the water (depending on turbidity) also allows solar radiation to penetrate below the surface into the water body, where it is locally absorbed (either by the water or by the deployed sensors). This process makes the estimation of effective thermal diffusivity from experimental water temperature profiles more difficult. In this study, we analyze water temperature profiles in a lake with the aim of showing that assessment of the role played by radiative forcing is necessary to estimate the effective thermal diffusivity. To this end we investigate diurnal water temperature fluctuations with depth. We try to quantify the effect of locally absorbed radiation and assess the impact of atmospheric conditions (wind speed, net radiation) on the estimation of the thermal diffusivity. The whole analysis is based on the results of fiber optic distributed temperature sensing, which allows unprecedented high spatial resolution measurements (∼4 mm) of the temperature profile in the water and near the water surface.

Linking landscape- and population ecology for large population management modelling: the case of Ibex (capra ibex) in Switzerland

La biologie de la conservation est communément associée à la protection de petites populations menacées d?extinction. Pourtant, il peut également être nécessaire de soumettre à gestion des populations surabondantes ou susceptibles d?une trop grande expansion, dans le but de prévenir les effets néfastes de la surpopulation. Du fait des différences tant quantitatives que qualitatives entre protection des petites populations et contrôle des grandes, il est nécessaire de disposer de modèles et de méthodes distinctes. L?objectif de ce travail a été de développer des modèles prédictifs de la dynamique des grandes populations, ainsi que des logiciels permettant de calculer les paramètres de ces modèles et de tester des scénarios de gestion. Le cas du Bouquetin des Alpes (Capra ibex ibex) - en forte expansion en Suisse depuis sa réintroduction au début du XXème siècle - servit d?exemple. Cette tâche fut accomplie en trois étapes : En premier lieu, un modèle de dynamique locale, spécifique au Bouquetin, fut développé : le modèle sous-jacent - structuré en classes d?âge et de sexe - est basé sur une matrice de Leslie à laquelle ont été ajoutées la densité-dépendance, la stochasticité environnementale et la chasse de régulation. Ce modèle fut implémenté dans un logiciel d?aide à la gestion - nommé SIM-Ibex - permettant la maintenance de données de recensements, l?estimation automatisée des paramètres, ainsi que l?ajustement et la simulation de stratégies de régulation. Mais la dynamique d?une population est influencée non seulement par des facteurs démographiques, mais aussi par la dispersion et la colonisation de nouveaux espaces. Il est donc nécessaire de pouvoir modéliser tant la qualité de l?habitat que les obstacles à la dispersion. Une collection de logiciels - nommée Biomapper - fut donc développée. Son module central est basé sur l?Analyse Factorielle de la Niche Ecologique (ENFA) dont le principe est de calculer des facteurs de marginalité et de spécialisation de la niche écologique à partir de prédicteurs environnementaux et de données d?observation de l?espèce. Tous les modules de Biomapper sont liés aux Systèmes d?Information Géographiques (SIG) ; ils couvrent toutes les opérations d?importation des données, préparation des prédicteurs, ENFA et calcul de la carte de qualité d?habitat, validation et traitement des résultats ; un module permet également de cartographier les barrières et les corridors de dispersion. Le domaine d?application de l?ENFA fut exploré par le biais d?une distribution d?espèce virtuelle. La comparaison à une méthode couramment utilisée pour construire des cartes de qualité d?habitat, le Modèle Linéaire Généralisé (GLM), montra qu?elle était particulièrement adaptée pour les espèces cryptiques ou en cours d?expansion. Les informations sur la démographie et le paysage furent finalement fusionnées en un modèle global. Une approche basée sur un automate cellulaire fut choisie, tant pour satisfaire aux contraintes du réalisme de la modélisation du paysage qu?à celles imposées par les grandes populations : la zone d?étude est modélisée par un pavage de cellules hexagonales, chacune caractérisée par des propriétés - une capacité de soutien et six taux d?imperméabilité quantifiant les échanges entre cellules adjacentes - et une variable, la densité de la population. Cette dernière varie en fonction de la reproduction et de la survie locale, ainsi que de la dispersion, sous l?influence de la densité-dépendance et de la stochasticité. Un logiciel - nommé HexaSpace - fut développé pour accomplir deux fonctions : 1° Calibrer l?automate sur la base de modèles de dynamique (par ex. calculés par SIM-Ibex) et d?une carte de qualité d?habitat (par ex. calculée par Biomapper). 2° Faire tourner des simulations. Il permet d?étudier l?expansion d?une espèce envahisseuse dans un paysage complexe composé de zones de qualité diverses et comportant des obstacles à la dispersion. Ce modèle fut appliqué à l?histoire de la réintroduction du Bouquetin dans les Alpes bernoises (Suisse). SIM-Ibex est actuellement utilisé par les gestionnaires de la faune et par les inspecteurs du gouvernement pour préparer et contrôler les plans de tir. Biomapper a été appliqué à plusieurs espèces (tant végétales qu?animales) à travers le Monde. De même, même si HexaSpace fut initialement conçu pour des espèces animales terrestres, il pourrait aisément être étndu à la propagation de plantes ou à la dispersion d?animaux volants. Ces logiciels étant conçus pour, à partir de données brutes, construire un modèle réaliste complexe, et du fait qu?ils sont dotés d?une interface d?utilisation intuitive, ils sont susceptibles de nombreuses applications en biologie de la conservation. En outre, ces approches peuvent également s?appliquer à des questions théoriques dans les domaines de l?écologie des populations et du paysage.<br/><br/>Conservation biology is commonly associated to small and endangered population protection. Nevertheless, large or potentially large populations may also need human management to prevent negative effects of overpopulation. As there are both qualitative and quantitative differences between small population protection and large population controlling, distinct methods and models are needed. The aim of this work was to develop theoretical models to predict large population dynamics, as well as computer tools to assess the parameters of these models and to test management scenarios. The alpine Ibex (Capra ibex ibex) - which experienced a spectacular increase since its reintroduction in Switzerland at the beginning of the 20th century - was used as paradigm species. This task was achieved in three steps: A local population dynamics model was first developed specifically for Ibex: the underlying age- and sex-structured model is based on a Leslie matrix approach with addition of density-dependence, environmental stochasticity and culling. This model was implemented into a management-support software - named SIM-Ibex - allowing census data maintenance, parameter automated assessment and culling strategies tuning and simulating. However population dynamics is driven not only by demographic factors, but also by dispersal and colonisation of new areas. Habitat suitability and obstacles modelling had therefore to be addressed. Thus, a software package - named Biomapper - was developed. Its central module is based on the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) whose principle is to compute niche marginality and specialisation factors from a set of environmental predictors and species presence data. All Biomapper modules are linked to Geographic Information Systems (GIS); they cover all operations of data importation, predictor preparation, ENFA and habitat suitability map computation, results validation and further processing; a module also allows mapping of dispersal barriers and corridors. ENFA application domain was then explored by means of a simulated species distribution. It was compared to a common habitat suitability assessing method, the Generalised Linear Model (GLM), and was proven better suited for spreading or cryptic species. Demography and landscape informations were finally merged into a global model. To cope with landscape realism and technical constraints of large population modelling, a cellular automaton approach was chosen: the study area is modelled by a lattice of hexagonal cells, each one characterised by a few fixed properties - a carrying capacity and six impermeability rates quantifying exchanges between adjacent cells - and one variable, population density. The later varies according to local reproduction/survival and dispersal dynamics, modified by density-dependence and stochasticity. A software - named HexaSpace - was developed, which achieves two functions: 1° Calibrating the automaton on the base of local population dynamics models (e.g., computed by SIM-Ibex) and a habitat suitability map (e.g. computed by Biomapper). 2° Running simulations. It allows studying the spreading of an invading species across a complex landscape made of variously suitable areas and dispersal barriers. This model was applied to the history of Ibex reintroduction in Bernese Alps (Switzerland). SIM-Ibex is now used by governmental wildlife managers to prepare and verify culling plans. Biomapper has been applied to several species (both plants and animals) all around the World. In the same way, whilst HexaSpace was originally designed for terrestrial animal species, it could be easily extended to model plant propagation or flying animals dispersal. As these softwares were designed to proceed from low-level data to build a complex realistic model and as they benefit from an intuitive user-interface, they may have many conservation applications. Moreover, theoretical questions in the fields of population and landscape ecology might also be addressed by these approaches.

On sliding mode control ofhydraulic servo systems and a manipulator

The aim of the study is to developa novel robust controller based on sliding mode control technique for the hydraulic servo system with flexible load and for a flexible manipulator with the lift and jib hydraulic actuators. For the purpose of general control design, a dynamic model is derived describing the principle physical behavior for both the hydraulic servo system and the flexible hydraulic manipulator. The mechanism of hydraulic servo systems is described by basic mathematical equations of fluid powersystems and the dynamics of flexible manipulator is modeled by the assumed modemethod. The controller is constructed so as to track desired trajectories in the presence of model imprecision. Experimental and simulation results demonstratethat sliding mode control has benefits which can be used to guarantee stabilityin uncertain systems and improve the system performance and load tolerance.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.